Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a near-certain 96.5% for an Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's confirmation of no active tropical cyclones or development potential, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks paused until May 15 amid off-season dormancy. Sea surface temperatures across the main development region remain below the critical 26.5°C threshold for hurricane genesis, while elevated vertical wind shear inhibits storm organization, aligning with climatological norms where pre-June 1 hurricanes number fewer than five in records dating to 1851. Recent Colorado State University forecasts of below-normal 2026 activity, influenced by emerging El Niño patterns, further bolster this view. Realistic scenarios for a shift include a potent African easterly wave encountering anomalously low shear and rapid warming, though current model ensembles assign negligible probability; watch for NHC special outlooks if conditions evolve.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$41,745 거래량
$41,745 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$41,745 거래량
$41,745 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a near-certain 96.5% for an Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's confirmation of no active tropical cyclones or development potential, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks paused until May 15 amid off-season dormancy. Sea surface temperatures across the main development region remain below the critical 26.5°C threshold for hurricane genesis, while elevated vertical wind shear inhibits storm organization, aligning with climatological norms where pre-June 1 hurricanes number fewer than five in records dating to 1851. Recent Colorado State University forecasts of below-normal 2026 activity, influenced by emerging El Niño patterns, further bolster this view. Realistic scenarios for a shift include a potent African easterly wave encountering anomalously low shear and rapid warming, though current model ensembles assign negligible probability; watch for NHC special outlooks if conditions evolve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
거래량
$41,745종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a near-certain 96.5% for an Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's confirmation of no active tropical cyclones or development potential, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks paused until May 15 amid off-season dormancy. Sea surface temperatures across the main development region remain below the critical 26.5°C threshold for hurricane genesis, while elevated vertical wind shear inhibits storm organization, aligning with climatological norms where pre-June 1 hurricanes number fewer than five in records dating to 1851. Recent Colorado State University forecasts of below-normal 2026 activity, influenced by emerging El Niño patterns, further bolster this view. Realistic scenarios for a shift include a potent African easterly wave encountering anomalously low shear and rapid warming, though current model ensembles assign negligible probability; watch for NHC special outlooks if conditions evolve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
거래량
$41,745종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a near-certain 96.5% for an Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's confirmation of no active tropical cyclones or development potential, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks paused until May 15 amid off-season dormancy. Sea surface temperatures across the main development region remain below the critical 26.5°C threshold for hurricane genesis, while elevated vertical wind shear inhibits storm organization, aligning with climatological norms where pre-June 1 hurricanes number fewer than five in records dating to 1851. Recent Colorado State University forecasts of below-normal 2026 activity, influenced by emerging El Niño patterns, further bolster this view. Realistic scenarios for a shift include a potent African easterly wave encountering anomalously low shear and rapid warming, though current model ensembles assign negligible probability; watch for NHC special outlooks if conditions evolve.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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