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스포츠·NFL

Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be traded?

Market icon
스포츠·NFL

Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be traded?

2% 확률
Polymarket
신규
2% 확률
Polymarket
신규
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first pick of the 2026 NFL draft is traded at any point before the pick is used for selection in the draft. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Traders' near-unanimous 98.3% implied probability on "No" reflects the Las Vegas Raiders' entrenched position atop the 2026 NFL Draft order after their 3-14 finish, with consensus centering on Indiana Heisman-winning QB Fernando Mendoza as the clear franchise quarterback solution amid a rebuilt QB room featuring Kirk Cousins as mentor and new head coach Klint Kubiak's merit-based system. GM John Spytek's comments yesterday acknowledged only "a few calls" from inquiring teams—quickly dismissed as those suitors "know where they stand"—underscoring minimal trade momentum one week before the April 23 Pittsburgh start. Historical rarity of #1 pick trades, especially for elite QBs, bolsters this skin-in-the-game consensus, though an unprecedented haul of future first-rounders or surprise Mendoza medical issues could prompt a shift.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first pick of the 2026 NFL draft is traded at any point before the pick is used for selection in the draft. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$741
종료일
2026.04.23
마켓 개설일
Dec 22, 2025, 7:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first pick of the 2026 NFL draft is traded at any point before the pick is used for selection in the draft. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first pick of the 2026 NFL draft is traded at any point before the pick is used for selection in the draft. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Traders' near-unanimous 98.3% implied probability on "No" reflects the Las Vegas Raiders' entrenched position atop the 2026 NFL Draft order after their 3-14 finish, with consensus centering on Indiana Heisman-winning QB Fernando Mendoza as the clear franchise quarterback solution amid a rebuilt QB room featuring Kirk Cousins as mentor and new head coach Klint Kubiak's merit-based system. GM John Spytek's comments yesterday acknowledged only "a few calls" from inquiring teams—quickly dismissed as those suitors "know where they stand"—underscoring minimal trade momentum one week before the April 23 Pittsburgh start. Historical rarity of #1 pick trades, especially for elite QBs, bolsters this skin-in-the-game consensus, though an unprecedented haul of future first-rounders or surprise Mendoza medical issues could prompt a shift.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first pick of the 2026 NFL draft is traded at any point before the pick is used for selection in the draft. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$741
종료일
2026.04.23
마켓 개설일
Dec 22, 2025, 7:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first pick of the 2026 NFL draft is traded at any point before the pick is used for selection in the draft. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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자주 묻는 질문

"Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be traded? "은 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 이 이벤트가 발생할 것인지에 따라 "Yes" 또는 "No" 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 크라우드소싱 확률은 "Yes"에 대해 2%입니다. 예를 들어 "Yes"가 2¢에 거래되면 마켓은 이 이벤트가 발생할 확률을 2%로 부여합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

"Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be traded? "은 Polymarket에서 새로 생성된 마켓입니다, Dec 23, 2025에 시작됨. 초기 마켓으로서 확률을 설정하고 마켓의 초기 가격 신호를 수립하는 첫 번째 트레이더 중 하나가 될 기회입니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하여 마켓이 성장함에 따라 거래량과 거래 활동을 추적할 수도 있습니다.

"Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be traded? "에서 거래하려면 답이 "Yes"인지 "No"인지 선택하세요. 각 쪽에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 반영하는 현재 가격이 있습니다. 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 "Yes"로 정산되면 각 주식은 $1을 지급합니다. "No"로 정산되면 "Yes" 주식은 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be traded? "의 현재 확률은 "Yes"에 대해 2%입니다. 이는 Polymarket 크라우드가 현재 이 이벤트가 발생할 확률을 2%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 실제 거래에 기반하여 실시간으로 업데이트되어 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 지속적으로 업데이트되는 신호를 제공합니다.

"Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be traded? "의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.