Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 100.0%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$2,464 Wol.
$2,464 Wol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
Yes
2nd hottest
No
3rd hottest
No
4th or lower
No
1st hottest 100.0%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$2,464 Wol.
$2,464 Wol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$779 Wol.
Yes
2nd hottest
$578 Wol.
No
3rd hottest
$542 Wol.
No
4th or lower
$565 Wol.
No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,464Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Wolumen
$2,464Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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