Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 Max holds an 84% implied probability as the top AI model by August 17, driven by its recent capability gains in complex reasoning benchmarks and multimodal tasks that have outpaced prior Opus iterations. Traders see this as extending the model's competitive edge over alternatives from OpenAI and Google, with the 7.5% odds on Claude Opus 4-6-thinking reflecting lingering strength in specialized variants but limited upside from incremental updates. The narrow 5.5% and lower shares for other Claude flavors underscore market focus on the Max configuration's hardware-optimized performance. Key upcoming catalysts include any mid-August benchmark releases or capability demos that could shift the tight resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBest AI model on August 17?
Best AI model on August 17?
claude-opus-5-max 84%
Other 9%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 8%
claude-opus-5-high 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 17, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
84%
Other
9%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
8%
claude-opus-5-high
6%
claude-fable-5
4%
claude-opus-4-6
3%
claude-opus-5-max 84%
Other 9%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 8%
claude-opus-5-high 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 17, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$124 Wol.
84%
Other
$0 Wol.
9%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$166 Wol.
8%
claude-opus-5-high
$40 Wol.
6%
claude-fable-5
$48 Wol.
4%
claude-opus-4-6
$111 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 Max holds an 84% implied probability as the top AI model by August 17, driven by its recent capability gains in complex reasoning benchmarks and multimodal tasks that have outpaced prior Opus iterations. Traders see this as extending the model's competitive edge over alternatives from OpenAI and Google, with the 7.5% odds on Claude Opus 4-6-thinking reflecting lingering strength in specialized variants but limited upside from incremental updates. The narrow 5.5% and lower shares for other Claude flavors underscore market focus on the Max configuration's hardware-optimized performance. Key upcoming catalysts include any mid-August benchmark releases or capability demos that could shift the tight resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$489Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 Max holds an 84% implied probability as the top AI model by August 17, driven by its recent capability gains in complex reasoning benchmarks and multimodal tasks that have outpaced prior Opus iterations. Traders see this as extending the model's competitive edge over alternatives from OpenAI and Google, with the 7.5% odds on Claude Opus 4-6-thinking reflecting lingering strength in specialized variants but limited upside from incremental updates. The narrow 5.5% and lower shares for other Claude flavors underscore market focus on the Max configuration's hardware-optimized performance. Key upcoming catalysts include any mid-August benchmark releases or capability demos that could shift the tight resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$489Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 Max holds an 84% implied probability as the top AI model by August 17, driven by its recent capability gains in complex reasoning benchmarks and multimodal tasks that have outpaced prior Opus iterations. Traders see this as extending the model's competitive edge over alternatives from OpenAI and Google, with the 7.5% odds on Claude Opus 4-6-thinking reflecting lingering strength in specialized variants but limited upside from incremental updates. The narrow 5.5% and lower shares for other Claude flavors underscore market focus on the Max configuration's hardware-optimized performance. Key upcoming catalysts include any mid-August benchmark releases or capability demos that could shift the tight resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania