**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the ECB’s July 23, 2026 meeting (88.5%), reflecting trader consensus that the June 11 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% addresses the immediate inflation shock.** Recent Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026—revised higher due to elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict—while core measures are expected to moderate toward the 2% target over the medium term. The Governing Council has emphasized a data-dependent stance without pre-committing to further tightening, amid downward revisions to 2026 growth (0.8%) and a still-resilient labor market with unemployment near 6.2%. Forward-looking futures and analyst surveys price only modest additional hikes later in the year, primarily at the September meeting when fresh projections arrive. Key near-term catalysts include June and July inflation prints, energy price trajectories, and any further communications on second-round effects, which could shift the narrow 12% probability assigned to a 25-basis-point July increase.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB Interest Rates: July 2026
ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
No change 89%
25 bps Increase 12%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$99,293 Wol.
$99,293 Wol.
Jul 23, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
89%
25 bps Increase
12%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 89%
25 bps Increase 12%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$99,293 Wol.
$99,293 Wol.
Jul 23, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$17,483 Wol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$14,823 Wol.
<1%
No change
$21,248 Wol.
89%
25 bps Increase
$22,080 Wol.
12%
50+ bps increase
$23,659 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the ECB’s July 23, 2026 meeting (88.5%), reflecting trader consensus that the June 11 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% addresses the immediate inflation shock.** Recent Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026—revised higher due to elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict—while core measures are expected to moderate toward the 2% target over the medium term. The Governing Council has emphasized a data-dependent stance without pre-committing to further tightening, amid downward revisions to 2026 growth (0.8%) and a still-resilient labor market with unemployment near 6.2%. Forward-looking futures and analyst surveys price only modest additional hikes later in the year, primarily at the September meeting when fresh projections arrive. Key near-term catalysts include June and July inflation prints, energy price trajectories, and any further communications on second-round effects, which could shift the narrow 12% probability assigned to a 25-basis-point July increase.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Wolumen
$99,293Data zakończenia
Jul 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the ECB’s July 23, 2026 meeting (88.5%), reflecting trader consensus that the June 11 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% addresses the immediate inflation shock.** Recent Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026—revised higher due to elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict—while core measures are expected to moderate toward the 2% target over the medium term. The Governing Council has emphasized a data-dependent stance without pre-committing to further tightening, amid downward revisions to 2026 growth (0.8%) and a still-resilient labor market with unemployment near 6.2%. Forward-looking futures and analyst surveys price only modest additional hikes later in the year, primarily at the September meeting when fresh projections arrive. Key near-term catalysts include June and July inflation prints, energy price trajectories, and any further communications on second-round effects, which could shift the narrow 12% probability assigned to a 25-basis-point July increase.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Wolumen
$99,293Data zakończenia
Jul 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the ECB’s July 23, 2026 meeting (88.5%), reflecting trader consensus that the June 11 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% addresses the immediate inflation shock.** Recent Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026—revised higher due to elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict—while core measures are expected to moderate toward the 2% target over the medium term. The Governing Council has emphasized a data-dependent stance without pre-committing to further tightening, amid downward revisions to 2026 growth (0.8%) and a still-resilient labor market with unemployment near 6.2%. Forward-looking futures and analyst surveys price only modest additional hikes later in the year, primarily at the September meeting when fresh projections arrive. Key near-term catalysts include June and July inflation prints, energy price trajectories, and any further communications on second-round effects, which could shift the narrow 12% probability assigned to a 25-basis-point July increase.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania