The market's strong tilt toward 7.9 or below (65.5%) reflects the absence of any magnitude 8.0+ event through mid-August 2026, with the year's strongest quake a 7.8 offshore Mindanao, Philippines, on June 7–8, according to USGS data. Multiple M7+ events have occurred, including 7.5s in Tonga and Venezuela, a 7.7 in Indonesia, and a 7.4 in Colombia on August 10, yet none have reached great-earthquake thresholds typical of major subduction-zone ruptures. Globally, M8+ quakes average fewer than one per year, and current seismic patterns show no unusual clustering capable of producing them before year-end. USGS monitoring and aftershock sequences in the Ring of Fire will determine whether any late-2026 activity can shift the distribution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 66%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 10%
8.6 – 8.7 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
66%
8.0 – 8.1
12%
8.2 – 8.3
10%
8.4 – 8.5
6%
8.6 – 8.7
7%
8.8 – 8.9
7%
9.0 or above
6%
7.9 or below 66%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 10%
8.6 – 8.7 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$97 Wol.
66%
8.0 – 8.1
$40 Wol.
12%
8.2 – 8.3
$55 Wol.
10%
8.4 – 8.5
$40 Wol.
6%
8.6 – 8.7
$60 Wol.
7%
8.8 – 8.9
$40 Wol.
7%
9.0 or above
$27 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market's strong tilt toward 7.9 or below (65.5%) reflects the absence of any magnitude 8.0+ event through mid-August 2026, with the year's strongest quake a 7.8 offshore Mindanao, Philippines, on June 7–8, according to USGS data. Multiple M7+ events have occurred, including 7.5s in Tonga and Venezuela, a 7.7 in Indonesia, and a 7.4 in Colombia on August 10, yet none have reached great-earthquake thresholds typical of major subduction-zone ruptures. Globally, M8+ quakes average fewer than one per year, and current seismic patterns show no unusual clustering capable of producing them before year-end. USGS monitoring and aftershock sequences in the Ring of Fire will determine whether any late-2026 activity can shift the distribution.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Wolumen
$357Data zakończenia
Jan 4, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market's strong tilt toward 7.9 or below (65.5%) reflects the absence of any magnitude 8.0+ event through mid-August 2026, with the year's strongest quake a 7.8 offshore Mindanao, Philippines, on June 7–8, according to USGS data. Multiple M7+ events have occurred, including 7.5s in Tonga and Venezuela, a 7.7 in Indonesia, and a 7.4 in Colombia on August 10, yet none have reached great-earthquake thresholds typical of major subduction-zone ruptures. Globally, M8+ quakes average fewer than one per year, and current seismic patterns show no unusual clustering capable of producing them before year-end. USGS monitoring and aftershock sequences in the Ring of Fire will determine whether any late-2026 activity can shift the distribution.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Wolumen
$357Data zakończenia
Jan 4, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's strong tilt toward 7.9 or below (65.5%) reflects the absence of any magnitude 8.0+ event through mid-August 2026, with the year's strongest quake a 7.8 offshore Mindanao, Philippines, on June 7–8, according to USGS data. Multiple M7+ events have occurred, including 7.5s in Tonga and Venezuela, a 7.7 in Indonesia, and a 7.4 in Colombia on August 10, yet none have reached great-earthquake thresholds typical of major subduction-zone ruptures. Globally, M8+ quakes average fewer than one per year, and current seismic patterns show no unusual clustering capable of producing them before year-end. USGS monitoring and aftershock sequences in the Ring of Fire will determine whether any late-2026 activity can shift the distribution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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