Trader consensus favoring an 80% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through early September. Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows no U.S. landfalls meeting Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds despite an active season, while USGS data confirm peak events remain below 8.5 Mw. Recent activity, including Nepal glacial floods, European heatwaves, and 7+ magnitude quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, falls short of resolution criteria. With El Niño strengthening and four months remaining, model consensus and historical rarity of these tail-end extremes continue to support the current market positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
19% szansa
$245,348 Wol.
$245,348 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
19% szansa
$245,348 Wol.
$245,348 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring an 80% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through early September. Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows no U.S. landfalls meeting Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds despite an active season, while USGS data confirm peak events remain below 8.5 Mw. Recent activity, including Nepal glacial floods, European heatwaves, and 7+ magnitude quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, falls short of resolution criteria. With El Niño strengthening and four months remaining, model consensus and historical rarity of these tail-end extremes continue to support the current market positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$245,348Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring an 80% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through early September. Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows no U.S. landfalls meeting Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds despite an active season, while USGS data confirm peak events remain below 8.5 Mw. Recent activity, including Nepal glacial floods, European heatwaves, and 7+ magnitude quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, falls short of resolution criteria. With El Niño strengthening and four months remaining, model consensus and historical rarity of these tail-end extremes continue to support the current market positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$245,348Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring an 80% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through early September. Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows no U.S. landfalls meeting Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds despite an active season, while USGS data confirm peak events remain below 8.5 Mw. Recent activity, including Nepal glacial floods, European heatwaves, and 7+ magnitude quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, falls short of resolution criteria. With El Niño strengthening and four months remaining, model consensus and historical rarity of these tail-end extremes continue to support the current market positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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