Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, 10kt+ meteor airburst, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—due to the historical rarity of these extreme events and absence of any in Q1 2026. USGS data shows no seismic events exceeding M7.4 globally this year, while NOAA's early Atlantic hurricane forecasts predict below-normal activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from weak La Niña, reducing wind shear suppression risks. No VEI ≥6 eruptions reported via global monitoring, and NASA fireball logs confirm no major meteor strikes. Hurricane season outlook updates expected in May from NHC could shift odds, alongside ongoing USGS seismic surveillance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$204,562 Wol.
$204,562 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$204,562 Wol.
$204,562 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, 10kt+ meteor airburst, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—due to the historical rarity of these extreme events and absence of any in Q1 2026. USGS data shows no seismic events exceeding M7.4 globally this year, while NOAA's early Atlantic hurricane forecasts predict below-normal activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from weak La Niña, reducing wind shear suppression risks. No VEI ≥6 eruptions reported via global monitoring, and NASA fireball logs confirm no major meteor strikes. Hurricane season outlook updates expected in May from NHC could shift odds, alongside ongoing USGS seismic surveillance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$204,562Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, 10kt+ meteor airburst, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—due to the historical rarity of these extreme events and absence of any in Q1 2026. USGS data shows no seismic events exceeding M7.4 globally this year, while NOAA's early Atlantic hurricane forecasts predict below-normal activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from weak La Niña, reducing wind shear suppression risks. No VEI ≥6 eruptions reported via global monitoring, and NASA fireball logs confirm no major meteor strikes. Hurricane season outlook updates expected in May from NHC could shift odds, alongside ongoing USGS seismic surveillance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$204,562Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, 10kt+ meteor airburst, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—due to the historical rarity of these extreme events and absence of any in Q1 2026. USGS data shows no seismic events exceeding M7.4 globally this year, while NOAA's early Atlantic hurricane forecasts predict below-normal activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from weak La Niña, reducing wind shear suppression risks. No VEI ≥6 eruptions reported via global monitoring, and NASA fireball logs confirm no major meteor strikes. Hurricane season outlook updates expected in May from NHC could shift odds, alongside ongoing USGS seismic surveillance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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