SpaceX's aggressive Starship development program, including multiple 2026 test flights of the V3 architecture with enhanced avionics for rapid reuse, underpins the 73.5% market-implied odds that full reusability—successful recovery and relight of both Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage—will occur before 2028. Recent milestones such as controlled reentries, in-space Raptor engine relights, and tower catch attempts have demonstrated key capabilities for the fully reusable two-stage system, while the company's Falcon 9 track record supports trader confidence in accelerated iteration. Upcoming catalysts include V3 orbital demonstrations and propellant transfer tests that could validate high-cadence operations, though technical hurdles like rapid turnaround refurbishment and consistent engine performance introduce realistic timelines risks.