xAI’s repeated delays on Grok 5, after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, have shifted trader sentiment toward a late-2026 release, with December 31 now holding roughly 63-68% implied probability on related markets. The model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster following its January 2026 confirmation, while the company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—rapid 1.5T-parameter iterations focused on speed, cost, and agentic coding that compete directly with models like Opus 4.7. Musk’s August SpaceX earnings comments reiterated an end-of-2026 goal, potentially incorporating SpaceX data and 6T–10T MoE variants, but the pattern of slipped windows and emphasis on interim releases continues to anchor expectations around Q4 rather than earlier.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGrok 5 released by...?
Grok 5 released by...?
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
18%
November 30
49%
December 31
68%
$8,565 Wol.
August 31
$3,541 Wol.
<1%
October 31
$1,769 Wol.
18%
November 30
$21 Wol.
49%
December 31
$1,711 Wol.
68%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s repeated delays on Grok 5, after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, have shifted trader sentiment toward a late-2026 release, with December 31 now holding roughly 63-68% implied probability on related markets. The model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster following its January 2026 confirmation, while the company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—rapid 1.5T-parameter iterations focused on speed, cost, and agentic coding that compete directly with models like Opus 4.7. Musk’s August SpaceX earnings comments reiterated an end-of-2026 goal, potentially incorporating SpaceX data and 6T–10T MoE variants, but the pattern of slipped windows and emphasis on interim releases continues to anchor expectations around Q4 rather than earlier.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,565Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s repeated delays on Grok 5, after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, have shifted trader sentiment toward a late-2026 release, with December 31 now holding roughly 63-68% implied probability on related markets. The model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster following its January 2026 confirmation, while the company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—rapid 1.5T-parameter iterations focused on speed, cost, and agentic coding that compete directly with models like Opus 4.7. Musk’s August SpaceX earnings comments reiterated an end-of-2026 goal, potentially incorporating SpaceX data and 6T–10T MoE variants, but the pattern of slipped windows and emphasis on interim releases continues to anchor expectations around Q4 rather than earlier.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$8,565Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...xAI’s repeated delays on Grok 5, after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, have shifted trader sentiment toward a late-2026 release, with December 31 now holding roughly 63-68% implied probability on related markets. The model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster following its January 2026 confirmation, while the company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—rapid 1.5T-parameter iterations focused on speed, cost, and agentic coding that compete directly with models like Opus 4.7. Musk’s August SpaceX earnings comments reiterated an end-of-2026 goal, potentially incorporating SpaceX data and 6T–10T MoE variants, but the pattern of slipped windows and emphasis on interim releases continues to anchor expectations around Q4 rather than earlier.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania