Google’s ongoing delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model—originally targeted for June then July 2026—remain the core driver behind the fragmented September release probabilities and 32.5% chance of no launch by month-end. Internal performance shortfalls prompted extended partner testing and tweaks after the July 21 rollout of lighter variants such as 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite, while training has already begun on the next-generation Gemini 4. Traders weigh Google DeepMind’s history of conservative timelines against competitive benchmarks and potential last-minute announcements, producing a wide distribution of implied odds across early-to-late September dates that reflect persistent uncertainty over when the full reasoning-focused Pro model will reach public API and app availability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by September 30 35%
September 22 10%
September 24 10%
September 9 9%
On or prior to September 1
4%
September 2
5%
September 3
7%
September 4
5%
September 5
5%
September 6
9%
September 7
5%
September 8
5%
September 9
9%
September 10
1%
September 11
5%
September 12
5%
September 13
1%
September 14
9%
September 15
9%
September 16
5%
September 17
5%
September 18
7%
September 19
7%
September 20
10%
September 21
6%
September 22
10%
September 23
6%
September 24
10%
September 25
5%
September 26
6%
September 27
5%
September 28
10%
September 29
8%
September 30
5%
No release by September 30
40%
No release by September 30 35%
September 22 10%
September 24 10%
September 9 9%
On or prior to September 1
4%
September 2
5%
September 3
7%
September 4
5%
September 5
5%
September 6
9%
September 7
5%
September 8
5%
September 9
9%
September 10
1%
September 11
5%
September 12
5%
September 13
1%
September 14
9%
September 15
9%
September 16
5%
September 17
5%
September 18
7%
September 19
7%
September 20
10%
September 21
6%
September 22
10%
September 23
6%
September 24
10%
September 25
5%
September 26
6%
September 27
5%
September 28
10%
September 29
8%
September 30
5%
No release by September 30
40%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s ongoing delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model—originally targeted for June then July 2026—remain the core driver behind the fragmented September release probabilities and 32.5% chance of no launch by month-end. Internal performance shortfalls prompted extended partner testing and tweaks after the July 21 rollout of lighter variants such as 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite, while training has already begun on the next-generation Gemini 4. Traders weigh Google DeepMind’s history of conservative timelines against competitive benchmarks and potential last-minute announcements, producing a wide distribution of implied odds across early-to-late September dates that reflect persistent uncertainty over when the full reasoning-focused Pro model will reach public API and app availability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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