Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. The moment magnitude scale ties earthquake size to fault rupture length and area; a magnitude 10 would require a fault exceeding Earth's circumference—about 40,000 km—far beyond any known tectonic feature. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in 1960, with no magnitude 9+ quakes in 2026 per USGS data. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented revisions in seismic theory or measurement, unlikely absent new global monitoring breakthroughs before year-end. USGS real-time feeds continue tracking worldwide seismicity.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano10.0 lub powyżej trzęsienia ziemi przed 2027 r.?
10.0 lub powyżej trzęsienia ziemi przed 2027 r.?
$556,132 Wol.
$556,132 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$556,132 Wol.
$556,132 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. The moment magnitude scale ties earthquake size to fault rupture length and area; a magnitude 10 would require a fault exceeding Earth's circumference—about 40,000 km—far beyond any known tectonic feature. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in 1960, with no magnitude 9+ quakes in 2026 per USGS data. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented revisions in seismic theory or measurement, unlikely absent new global monitoring breakthroughs before year-end. USGS real-time feeds continue tracking worldwide seismicity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Wolumen
$556,132Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. The moment magnitude scale ties earthquake size to fault rupture length and area; a magnitude 10 would require a fault exceeding Earth's circumference—about 40,000 km—far beyond any known tectonic feature. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in 1960, with no magnitude 9+ quakes in 2026 per USGS data. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented revisions in seismic theory or measurement, unlikely absent new global monitoring breakthroughs before year-end. USGS real-time feeds continue tracking worldwide seismicity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Wolumen
$556,132Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. The moment magnitude scale ties earthquake size to fault rupture length and area; a magnitude 10 would require a fault exceeding Earth's circumference—about 40,000 km—far beyond any known tectonic feature. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in 1960, with no magnitude 9+ quakes in 2026 per USGS data. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented revisions in seismic theory or measurement, unlikely absent new global monitoring breakthroughs before year-end. USGS real-time feeds continue tracking worldwide seismicity.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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