The overwhelming scientific consensus, led by USGS analysis, holds that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to generate such energy release—the largest recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960. With roughly four months remaining until 2027 and ongoing global seismic monitoring showing typical activity capped well below 8.0 in 2026, traders assign near-certainty to “No.” No recent model shifts or observational data challenge this physical limit. An asteroid impact or other non-tectonic event remains a theoretical edge case outside standard earthquake definitions used for resolution.