Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% chance of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, represent the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across the 1.10–1.29 °C bins for June 2026 global mean near-surface temperature anomaly. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies have already surged above the El Niño threshold in recent weekly observations, producing initial atmospheric circulation shifts that models indicate will modestly elevate June temperatures above the long-term warming trend. Uncertainty in event strength—currently favoring a moderate outcome with wide ensemble spread—plus normal variability in early-month observational data keeps the leading outcomes (1.15–1.19 °C at 43.0% and >1.29 °C at 41.5%) nearly even. The next ENSO diagnostic discussion on 11 June and updated seasonal forecasts will provide key new inputs for traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
<1.10ºC 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
40%
1.25–1.29ºC
40%
>1.29ºC
43%
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
<1.10ºC 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$5 Wol.
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Wol.
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Wol.
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Wol.
40%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 Wol.
40%
>1.29ºC
$270 Wol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% chance of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, represent the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across the 1.10–1.29 °C bins for June 2026 global mean near-surface temperature anomaly. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies have already surged above the El Niño threshold in recent weekly observations, producing initial atmospheric circulation shifts that models indicate will modestly elevate June temperatures above the long-term warming trend. Uncertainty in event strength—currently favoring a moderate outcome with wide ensemble spread—plus normal variability in early-month observational data keeps the leading outcomes (1.15–1.19 °C at 43.0% and >1.29 °C at 41.5%) nearly even. The next ENSO diagnostic discussion on 11 June and updated seasonal forecasts will provide key new inputs for traders.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Wolumen
$446Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% chance of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, represent the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across the 1.10–1.29 °C bins for June 2026 global mean near-surface temperature anomaly. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies have already surged above the El Niño threshold in recent weekly observations, producing initial atmospheric circulation shifts that models indicate will modestly elevate June temperatures above the long-term warming trend. Uncertainty in event strength—currently favoring a moderate outcome with wide ensemble spread—plus normal variability in early-month observational data keeps the leading outcomes (1.15–1.19 °C at 43.0% and >1.29 °C at 41.5%) nearly even. The next ENSO diagnostic discussion on 11 June and updated seasonal forecasts will provide key new inputs for traders.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$446Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% chance of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, represent the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across the 1.10–1.29 °C bins for June 2026 global mean near-surface temperature anomaly. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies have already surged above the El Niño threshold in recent weekly observations, producing initial atmospheric circulation shifts that models indicate will modestly elevate June temperatures above the long-term warming trend. Uncertainty in event strength—currently favoring a moderate outcome with wide ensemble spread—plus normal variability in early-month observational data keeps the leading outcomes (1.15–1.19 °C at 43.0% and >1.29 °C at 41.5%) nearly even. The next ENSO diagnostic discussion on 11 June and updated seasonal forecasts will provide key new inputs for traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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