Global temperature anomalies for August 2026 sit near even odds across narrow ranges in prediction markets because traders are balancing the long-term anthropogenic warming trend against short-term natural variability. Recent NOAA and NASA data show global means continuing to track near record levels, supported by elevated ocean heat content and residual effects from the 2023–2025 El Niño. Emerging La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific could exert modest cooling through altered atmospheric circulation, while Arctic amplification and reduced sea-ice extent add upward pressure. Key resolution hinges on final monthly averages, with model ensembles projecting a central tendency around 1.3–1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline but sensitive to exact ENSO timing and any unforecast weather patterns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.33ºC 50%
1.34–1.37ºC 50%
1.38–1.41ºC 50%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.33ºC
50%
1.34–1.37ºC
50%
1.38–1.41ºC
50%
1.42–1.45ºC
50%
>1.45ºC
50%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.33ºC 50%
1.34–1.37ºC 50%
1.38–1.41ºC 50%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
>1.45ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Global temperature anomalies for August 2026 sit near even odds across narrow ranges in prediction markets because traders are balancing the long-term anthropogenic warming trend against short-term natural variability. Recent NOAA and NASA data show global means continuing to track near record levels, supported by elevated ocean heat content and residual effects from the 2023–2025 El Niño. Emerging La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific could exert modest cooling through altered atmospheric circulation, while Arctic amplification and reduced sea-ice extent add upward pressure. Key resolution hinges on final monthly averages, with model ensembles projecting a central tendency around 1.3–1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline but sensitive to exact ENSO timing and any unforecast weather patterns.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Global temperature anomalies for August 2026 sit near even odds across narrow ranges in prediction markets because traders are balancing the long-term anthropogenic warming trend against short-term natural variability. Recent NOAA and NASA data show global means continuing to track near record levels, supported by elevated ocean heat content and residual effects from the 2023–2025 El Niño. Emerging La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific could exert modest cooling through altered atmospheric circulation, while Arctic amplification and reduced sea-ice extent add upward pressure. Key resolution hinges on final monthly averages, with model ensembles projecting a central tendency around 1.3–1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline but sensitive to exact ENSO timing and any unforecast weather patterns.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global temperature anomalies for August 2026 sit near even odds across narrow ranges in prediction markets because traders are balancing the long-term anthropogenic warming trend against short-term natural variability. Recent NOAA and NASA data show global means continuing to track near record levels, supported by elevated ocean heat content and residual effects from the 2023–2025 El Niño. Emerging La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific could exert modest cooling through altered atmospheric circulation, while Arctic amplification and reduced sea-ice extent add upward pressure. Key resolution hinges on final monthly averages, with model ensembles projecting a central tendency around 1.3–1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline but sensitive to exact ENSO timing and any unforecast weather patterns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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