Trader sentiment for the number of VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the inherent rarity of such events, with global averages historically around one to two per year based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. As of mid-September 2026, confirmed activity includes an early-September explosive event at Anak Krakatau producing ash plumes reaching approximately 15 km, meeting typical VEI 4 criteria via plume height and ejecta volume, alongside frequent but mostly lower-intensity eruptions at Semeru, Lewotobi, and Reventador. Ongoing monitoring by agencies like Indonesia’s PVMBG and the USGS shows no additional large-scale unrest or model consensus pointing to imminent VEI 4+ events in the remaining months. This balance of one documented candidate against the low baseline probability sustains the close contest between zero and one outcome, with traders weighing confirmation of plume and deposit data against the chance of further escalation at restless systems.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIle dużych erupcji wulkanów (VEI ≥4) w 2026 roku?
Ile dużych erupcji wulkanów (VEI ≥4) w 2026 roku?
1 51%
0 43%
3 7.3%
2 6.1%
$1,164,266 Wol.
$1,164,266 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
42%
1
51%
2
6%
3
7%
4
1%
5+
1%
1 51%
0 43%
3 7.3%
2 6.1%
$1,164,266 Wol.
$1,164,266 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,859 Wol.
42%
1
$274,794 Wol.
51%
2
$45,997 Wol.
6%
3
$32,103 Wol.
7%
4
$35,623 Wol.
1%
5+
$275,891 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment for the number of VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the inherent rarity of such events, with global averages historically around one to two per year based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. As of mid-September 2026, confirmed activity includes an early-September explosive event at Anak Krakatau producing ash plumes reaching approximately 15 km, meeting typical VEI 4 criteria via plume height and ejecta volume, alongside frequent but mostly lower-intensity eruptions at Semeru, Lewotobi, and Reventador. Ongoing monitoring by agencies like Indonesia’s PVMBG and the USGS shows no additional large-scale unrest or model consensus pointing to imminent VEI 4+ events in the remaining months. This balance of one documented candidate against the low baseline probability sustains the close contest between zero and one outcome, with traders weighing confirmation of plume and deposit data against the chance of further escalation at restless systems.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,164,266Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment for the number of VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the inherent rarity of such events, with global averages historically around one to two per year based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. As of mid-September 2026, confirmed activity includes an early-September explosive event at Anak Krakatau producing ash plumes reaching approximately 15 km, meeting typical VEI 4 criteria via plume height and ejecta volume, alongside frequent but mostly lower-intensity eruptions at Semeru, Lewotobi, and Reventador. Ongoing monitoring by agencies like Indonesia’s PVMBG and the USGS shows no additional large-scale unrest or model consensus pointing to imminent VEI 4+ events in the remaining months. This balance of one documented candidate against the low baseline probability sustains the close contest between zero and one outcome, with traders weighing confirmation of plume and deposit data against the chance of further escalation at restless systems.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,164,266Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment for the number of VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the inherent rarity of such events, with global averages historically around one to two per year based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. As of mid-September 2026, confirmed activity includes an early-September explosive event at Anak Krakatau producing ash plumes reaching approximately 15 km, meeting typical VEI 4 criteria via plume height and ejecta volume, alongside frequent but mostly lower-intensity eruptions at Semeru, Lewotobi, and Reventador. Ongoing monitoring by agencies like Indonesia’s PVMBG and the USGS shows no additional large-scale unrest or model consensus pointing to imminent VEI 4+ events in the remaining months. This balance of one documented candidate against the low baseline probability sustains the close contest between zero and one outcome, with traders weighing confirmation of plume and deposit data against the chance of further escalation at restless systems.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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