NASA's February 2026 revision to the Artemis program timeline drives the 97% market-implied odds against a human Moon landing this year. Artemis III was redesignated as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration to test docking with SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon landers, while the first crewed surface mission shifted to Artemis IV in early 2028. Artemis II's successful April 2026 lunar flyby validated Orion and SLS hardware but left lunar landing system development incomplete. Persistent delays in human-rating certification and lander prototypes create substantial technical barriers, though an unforeseen acceleration in commercial HLS testing or regulatory fast-tracking could theoretically alter the trajectory before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLądowanie człowieka na księżycu w 2026 roku?
Lądowanie człowieka na księżycu w 2026 roku?
Tak
$1,942,983 Wol.
$1,942,983 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$1,942,983 Wol.
$1,942,983 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's February 2026 revision to the Artemis program timeline drives the 97% market-implied odds against a human Moon landing this year. Artemis III was redesignated as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration to test docking with SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon landers, while the first crewed surface mission shifted to Artemis IV in early 2028. Artemis II's successful April 2026 lunar flyby validated Orion and SLS hardware but left lunar landing system development incomplete. Persistent delays in human-rating certification and lander prototypes create substantial technical barriers, though an unforeseen acceleration in commercial HLS testing or regulatory fast-tracking could theoretically alter the trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,942,983Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's February 2026 revision to the Artemis program timeline drives the 97% market-implied odds against a human Moon landing this year. Artemis III was redesignated as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration to test docking with SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon landers, while the first crewed surface mission shifted to Artemis IV in early 2028. Artemis II's successful April 2026 lunar flyby validated Orion and SLS hardware but left lunar landing system development incomplete. Persistent delays in human-rating certification and lander prototypes create substantial technical barriers, though an unforeseen acceleration in commercial HLS testing or regulatory fast-tracking could theoretically alter the trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$1,942,983Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's February 2026 revision to the Artemis program timeline drives the 97% market-implied odds against a human Moon landing this year. Artemis III was redesignated as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration to test docking with SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon landers, while the first crewed surface mission shifted to Artemis IV in early 2028. Artemis II's successful April 2026 lunar flyby validated Orion and SLS hardware but left lunar landing system development incomplete. Persistent delays in human-rating certification and lander prototypes create substantial technical barriers, though an unforeseen acceleration in commercial HLS testing or regulatory fast-tracking could theoretically alter the trajectory before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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