NASA’s February 2026 restructuring shifted Artemis III to a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of Orion docking with SpaceX Starship HLS and Blue Origin Blue Moon test articles, moving the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV no earlier than 2028. Multiple commercial lunar lander missions have slipped into 2027 amid development delays, a May New Glenn explosion, and integration challenges, leaving no viable path for a human landing in the remaining months of 2026. While China targets a 2030 crewed mission and private efforts remain in early testing, the compressed timeline, first-of-a-kind rendezvous requirements, and certification hurdles reinforce trader consensus that a 2026 landing is effectively precluded.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLądowanie człowieka na księżycu w 2026 roku?
Lądowanie człowieka na księżycu w 2026 roku?
Tak
2% szansa
$1,971,217 Wol.
$1,971,217 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
2% szansa
$1,971,217 Wol.
$1,971,217 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA’s February 2026 restructuring shifted Artemis III to a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of Orion docking with SpaceX Starship HLS and Blue Origin Blue Moon test articles, moving the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV no earlier than 2028. Multiple commercial lunar lander missions have slipped into 2027 amid development delays, a May New Glenn explosion, and integration challenges, leaving no viable path for a human landing in the remaining months of 2026. While China targets a 2030 crewed mission and private efforts remain in early testing, the compressed timeline, first-of-a-kind rendezvous requirements, and certification hurdles reinforce trader consensus that a 2026 landing is effectively precluded.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,971,217Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA’s February 2026 restructuring shifted Artemis III to a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of Orion docking with SpaceX Starship HLS and Blue Origin Blue Moon test articles, moving the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV no earlier than 2028. Multiple commercial lunar lander missions have slipped into 2027 amid development delays, a May New Glenn explosion, and integration challenges, leaving no viable path for a human landing in the remaining months of 2026. While China targets a 2030 crewed mission and private efforts remain in early testing, the compressed timeline, first-of-a-kind rendezvous requirements, and certification hurdles reinforce trader consensus that a 2026 landing is effectively precluded.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$1,971,217Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...NASA’s February 2026 restructuring shifted Artemis III to a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of Orion docking with SpaceX Starship HLS and Blue Origin Blue Moon test articles, moving the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV no earlier than 2028. Multiple commercial lunar lander missions have slipped into 2027 amid development delays, a May New Glenn explosion, and integration challenges, leaving no viable path for a human landing in the remaining months of 2026. While China targets a 2030 crewed mission and private efforts remain in early testing, the compressed timeline, first-of-a-kind rendezvous requirements, and certification hurdles reinforce trader consensus that a 2026 landing is effectively precluded.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania