Recent observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, with record or near-record greenhouse gas emissions continuing at roughly 54–60 GtCO₂e annually. The Climate Clock derives its 1.5°C deadline from IPCC carbon budget estimates and Mercator Research Institute calculations that assume steady annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂, with updates occurring only after major peer-reviewed revisions or sustained deviations in emission trends. No such formal reassessment of the remaining budget—currently projected near 130 GtCO₂—is scheduled before late 2026, and multi-decadal averages remain below the threshold despite single-year anomalies. Trader consensus therefore assigns the market-implied 61.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the infrequency of clock adjustments and the absence of imminent scientific triggers that would alter the displayed timeline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
39% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 1, 2027
39% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, with record or near-record greenhouse gas emissions continuing at roughly 54–60 GtCO₂e annually. The Climate Clock derives its 1.5°C deadline from IPCC carbon budget estimates and Mercator Research Institute calculations that assume steady annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂, with updates occurring only after major peer-reviewed revisions or sustained deviations in emission trends. No such formal reassessment of the remaining budget—currently projected near 130 GtCO₂—is scheduled before late 2026, and multi-decadal averages remain below the threshold despite single-year anomalies. Trader consensus therefore assigns the market-implied 61.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the infrequency of clock adjustments and the absence of imminent scientific triggers that would alter the displayed timeline.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,043Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2029Rynek otwarty
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, with record or near-record greenhouse gas emissions continuing at roughly 54–60 GtCO₂e annually. The Climate Clock derives its 1.5°C deadline from IPCC carbon budget estimates and Mercator Research Institute calculations that assume steady annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂, with updates occurring only after major peer-reviewed revisions or sustained deviations in emission trends. No such formal reassessment of the remaining budget—currently projected near 130 GtCO₂—is scheduled before late 2026, and multi-decadal averages remain below the threshold despite single-year anomalies. Trader consensus therefore assigns the market-implied 61.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the infrequency of clock adjustments and the absence of imminent scientific triggers that would alter the displayed timeline.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Wolumen
$2,043Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, with record or near-record greenhouse gas emissions continuing at roughly 54–60 GtCO₂e annually. The Climate Clock derives its 1.5°C deadline from IPCC carbon budget estimates and Mercator Research Institute calculations that assume steady annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂, with updates occurring only after major peer-reviewed revisions or sustained deviations in emission trends. No such formal reassessment of the remaining budget—currently projected near 130 GtCO₂—is scheduled before late 2026, and multi-decadal averages remain below the threshold despite single-year anomalies. Trader consensus therefore assigns the market-implied 61.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the infrequency of clock adjustments and the absence of imminent scientific triggers that would alter the displayed timeline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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