Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for "No" major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying bolide events in NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Fireball and Bolide database through mid-April, despite a notable Q1 surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society—including the March 21 Houston airburst (0.026 kt) and March 8 European event (~0.25 kt). Enhanced detection networks have captured more low-energy airbursts, but historical CNEOS data indicates verified 10kt+ events occur roughly every 1-2 years, with traders pricing annual risk below 25% after accounting for observational biases. NASA's Sentry system lists no potential impactors for 2026, bolstering confidence, though undetected objects or late-year incidents remain tail risks as monitoring continues.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$144,910 Wol.
$144,910 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$144,910 Wol.
$144,910 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for "No" major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying bolide events in NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Fireball and Bolide database through mid-April, despite a notable Q1 surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society—including the March 21 Houston airburst (0.026 kt) and March 8 European event (~0.25 kt). Enhanced detection networks have captured more low-energy airbursts, but historical CNEOS data indicates verified 10kt+ events occur roughly every 1-2 years, with traders pricing annual risk below 25% after accounting for observational biases. NASA's Sentry system lists no potential impactors for 2026, bolstering confidence, though undetected objects or late-year incidents remain tail risks as monitoring continues.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$144,910Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for "No" major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying bolide events in NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Fireball and Bolide database through mid-April, despite a notable Q1 surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society—including the March 21 Houston airburst (0.026 kt) and March 8 European event (~0.25 kt). Enhanced detection networks have captured more low-energy airbursts, but historical CNEOS data indicates verified 10kt+ events occur roughly every 1-2 years, with traders pricing annual risk below 25% after accounting for observational biases. NASA's Sentry system lists no potential impactors for 2026, bolstering confidence, though undetected objects or late-year incidents remain tail risks as monitoring continues.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$144,910Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for "No" major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying bolide events in NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Fireball and Bolide database through mid-April, despite a notable Q1 surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society—including the March 21 Houston airburst (0.026 kt) and March 8 European event (~0.25 kt). Enhanced detection networks have captured more low-energy airbursts, but historical CNEOS data indicates verified 10kt+ events occur roughly every 1-2 years, with traders pricing annual risk below 25% after accounting for observational biases. NASA's Sentry system lists no potential impactors for 2026, bolstering confidence, though undetected objects or late-year incidents remain tail risks as monitoring continues.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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