NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans all cataloged asteroids for collision risks, currently lists zero potential Earth impacts in 2026, driving the market's 96.3% implied probability for no 1-megaton meteor strike—a bolide airburst equivalent to about 20–50 meters in diameter. Comprehensive surveys like ATLAS, Pan-STARRS, and emerging Vera C. Rubin Observatory have detected over 41,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), with orbits refined to exclude threats; recent safe flybys, such as house-sized 2026 GD at 156,000 miles, reinforce this. The catalog is nearly complete for larger NEOs, and historical rates suggest such events occur roughly once every 50–100 years. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, fast-moving NEO evading telescopes until late 2026, though improving detection lowers this risk; watch CNEOS updates for new discoveries.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$104,450 Wol.
$104,450 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$104,450 Wol.
$104,450 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans all cataloged asteroids for collision risks, currently lists zero potential Earth impacts in 2026, driving the market's 96.3% implied probability for no 1-megaton meteor strike—a bolide airburst equivalent to about 20–50 meters in diameter. Comprehensive surveys like ATLAS, Pan-STARRS, and emerging Vera C. Rubin Observatory have detected over 41,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), with orbits refined to exclude threats; recent safe flybys, such as house-sized 2026 GD at 156,000 miles, reinforce this. The catalog is nearly complete for larger NEOs, and historical rates suggest such events occur roughly once every 50–100 years. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, fast-moving NEO evading telescopes until late 2026, though improving detection lowers this risk; watch CNEOS updates for new discoveries.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$104,450Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans all cataloged asteroids for collision risks, currently lists zero potential Earth impacts in 2026, driving the market's 96.3% implied probability for no 1-megaton meteor strike—a bolide airburst equivalent to about 20–50 meters in diameter. Comprehensive surveys like ATLAS, Pan-STARRS, and emerging Vera C. Rubin Observatory have detected over 41,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), with orbits refined to exclude threats; recent safe flybys, such as house-sized 2026 GD at 156,000 miles, reinforce this. The catalog is nearly complete for larger NEOs, and historical rates suggest such events occur roughly once every 50–100 years. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, fast-moving NEO evading telescopes until late 2026, though improving detection lowers this risk; watch CNEOS updates for new discoveries.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$104,450Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans all cataloged asteroids for collision risks, currently lists zero potential Earth impacts in 2026, driving the market's 96.3% implied probability for no 1-megaton meteor strike—a bolide airburst equivalent to about 20–50 meters in diameter. Comprehensive surveys like ATLAS, Pan-STARRS, and emerging Vera C. Rubin Observatory have detected over 41,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), with orbits refined to exclude threats; recent safe flybys, such as house-sized 2026 GD at 156,000 miles, reinforce this. The catalog is nearly complete for larger NEOs, and historical rates suggest such events occur roughly once every 50–100 years. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, fast-moving NEO evading telescopes until late 2026, though improving detection lowers this risk; watch CNEOS updates for new discoveries.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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