Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader sentiment in the 1.15–1.24ºC range at nearly 80% implied probability combined. Copernicus confirmed March 2026 at +1.48°C pre-industrial—the fourth-warmest March on record—with near-record sea surface temperatures persisting into April despite ENSO-neutral conditions (80% likelihood through June per NOAA). This tempers extremes seen during prior El Niño peaks, though baseline warming trends and ocean heat content sustain elevated levels. Uncertainty lingers over the month's remainder, with model consensus varying on late-April patterns; the full Copernicus bulletin arrives early May.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 46%
1.20–1.24ºC 32%
1.25–1.29ºC 13%
1.10–1.14ºC 9%
$135,739 Wol.
$135,739 Wol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
9%
1.15–1.19ºC
46%
1.20–1.24ºC
32%
1.25–1.29ºC
13%
>1.29ºC
3%
1.15–1.19ºC 46%
1.20–1.24ºC 32%
1.25–1.29ºC 13%
1.10–1.14ºC 9%
$135,739 Wol.
$135,739 Wol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$30,152 Wol.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,508 Wol.
9%
1.15–1.19ºC
$16,080 Wol.
46%
1.20–1.24ºC
$19,355 Wol.
32%
1.25–1.29ºC
$29,392 Wol.
13%
>1.29ºC
$16,253 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader sentiment in the 1.15–1.24ºC range at nearly 80% implied probability combined. Copernicus confirmed March 2026 at +1.48°C pre-industrial—the fourth-warmest March on record—with near-record sea surface temperatures persisting into April despite ENSO-neutral conditions (80% likelihood through June per NOAA). This tempers extremes seen during prior El Niño peaks, though baseline warming trends and ocean heat content sustain elevated levels. Uncertainty lingers over the month's remainder, with model consensus varying on late-April patterns; the full Copernicus bulletin arrives early May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$135,739Data zakończenia
May 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader sentiment in the 1.15–1.24ºC range at nearly 80% implied probability combined. Copernicus confirmed March 2026 at +1.48°C pre-industrial—the fourth-warmest March on record—with near-record sea surface temperatures persisting into April despite ENSO-neutral conditions (80% likelihood through June per NOAA). This tempers extremes seen during prior El Niño peaks, though baseline warming trends and ocean heat content sustain elevated levels. Uncertainty lingers over the month's remainder, with model consensus varying on late-April patterns; the full Copernicus bulletin arrives early May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$135,739Data zakończenia
May 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader sentiment in the 1.15–1.24ºC range at nearly 80% implied probability combined. Copernicus confirmed March 2026 at +1.48°C pre-industrial—the fourth-warmest March on record—with near-record sea surface temperatures persisting into April despite ENSO-neutral conditions (80% likelihood through June per NOAA). This tempers extremes seen during prior El Niño peaks, though baseline warming trends and ocean heat content sustain elevated levels. Uncertainty lingers over the month's remainder, with model consensus varying on late-April patterns; the full Copernicus bulletin arrives early May.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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