Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for the CDC issuing at least one Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential travel to affected international destinations—by December 31, 2026, driven by surging measles cases exceeding 1,700 confirmed in the U.S. alone this year across 19 outbreaks, alongside persistent H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in wild birds, poultry, dairy cows, and sporadic human infections globally, including Cambodia's third case in late March. Recent CDC elevations to Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24) and yellow fever in Venezuela signal rising epidemiological risks, with historical patterns showing Level 3 activations for comparable threats like Marburg. Weekly CDC surveillance updates and WHO outbreak reports could prompt further escalations amid inherent forecasting uncertainties in transmission dynamics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
$112,110 Wol.
$112,110 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$112,110 Wol.
$112,110 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for the CDC issuing at least one Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential travel to affected international destinations—by December 31, 2026, driven by surging measles cases exceeding 1,700 confirmed in the U.S. alone this year across 19 outbreaks, alongside persistent H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in wild birds, poultry, dairy cows, and sporadic human infections globally, including Cambodia's third case in late March. Recent CDC elevations to Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24) and yellow fever in Venezuela signal rising epidemiological risks, with historical patterns showing Level 3 activations for comparable threats like Marburg. Weekly CDC surveillance updates and WHO outbreak reports could prompt further escalations amid inherent forecasting uncertainties in transmission dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$112,110Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for the CDC issuing at least one Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential travel to affected international destinations—by December 31, 2026, driven by surging measles cases exceeding 1,700 confirmed in the U.S. alone this year across 19 outbreaks, alongside persistent H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in wild birds, poultry, dairy cows, and sporadic human infections globally, including Cambodia's third case in late March. Recent CDC elevations to Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24) and yellow fever in Venezuela signal rising epidemiological risks, with historical patterns showing Level 3 activations for comparable threats like Marburg. Weekly CDC surveillance updates and WHO outbreak reports could prompt further escalations amid inherent forecasting uncertainties in transmission dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$112,110Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for the CDC issuing at least one Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential travel to affected international destinations—by December 31, 2026, driven by surging measles cases exceeding 1,700 confirmed in the U.S. alone this year across 19 outbreaks, alongside persistent H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in wild birds, poultry, dairy cows, and sporadic human infections globally, including Cambodia's third case in late March. Recent CDC elevations to Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24) and yellow fever in Venezuela signal rising epidemiological risks, with historical patterns showing Level 3 activations for comparable threats like Marburg. Weekly CDC surveillance updates and WHO outbreak reports could prompt further escalations amid inherent forecasting uncertainties in transmission dynamics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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