NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or surface impact through 2026, underpinning the 95.5% market-implied odds against such an event. Continuous optical surveys including Pan-STARRS, combined with radar tracking and expanded detection networks, have ruled out known hazards consistent with century-scale risk assessments from agencies like NASA and ESA. Megaton-scale bolides remain historically infrequent, and improving orbital catalogs further reduce near-term probabilities. Undiscovered meter-scale objects or unforeseen gravitational perturbations could theoretically alter outcomes, though both require rapid late-year confirmation to affect resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or surface impact through 2026, underpinning the 95.5% market-implied odds against such an event. Continuous optical surveys including Pan-STARRS, combined with radar tracking and expanded detection networks, have ruled out known hazards consistent with century-scale risk assessments from agencies like NASA and ESA. Megaton-scale bolides remain historically infrequent, and improving orbital catalogs further reduce near-term probabilities. Undiscovered meter-scale objects or unforeseen gravitational perturbations could theoretically alter outcomes, though both require rapid late-year confirmation to affect resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,824Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or surface impact through 2026, underpinning the 95.5% market-implied odds against such an event. Continuous optical surveys including Pan-STARRS, combined with radar tracking and expanded detection networks, have ruled out known hazards consistent with century-scale risk assessments from agencies like NASA and ESA. Megaton-scale bolides remain historically infrequent, and improving orbital catalogs further reduce near-term probabilities. Undiscovered meter-scale objects or unforeseen gravitational perturbations could theoretically alter outcomes, though both require rapid late-year confirmation to affect resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$8,824Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or surface impact through 2026, underpinning the 95.5% market-implied odds against such an event. Continuous optical surveys including Pan-STARRS, combined with radar tracking and expanded detection networks, have ruled out known hazards consistent with century-scale risk assessments from agencies like NASA and ESA. Megaton-scale bolides remain historically infrequent, and improving orbital catalogs further reduce near-term probabilities. Undiscovered meter-scale objects or unforeseen gravitational perturbations could theoretically alter outcomes, though both require rapid late-year confirmation to affect resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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