No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver 100 kt or greater impact energy are projected to strike Earth in 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense catalogs. Continuous Sentry monitoring and close-approach lists show no qualifying candidates on collision trajectories, while historical bolide records from CNEOS indicate only two such events since 1988, supporting an annual base rate well below 5 percent. Remaining months of the year further compress the already low statistical probability. A late-year discovery of an undetected decameter-scale object remains the principal uncertainty, though improved survey cadence and the short time window make this scenario improbable before December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
2% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
2% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver 100 kt or greater impact energy are projected to strike Earth in 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense catalogs. Continuous Sentry monitoring and close-approach lists show no qualifying candidates on collision trajectories, while historical bolide records from CNEOS indicate only two such events since 1988, supporting an annual base rate well below 5 percent. Remaining months of the year further compress the already low statistical probability. A late-year discovery of an undetected decameter-scale object remains the principal uncertainty, though improved survey cadence and the short time window make this scenario improbable before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,955Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver 100 kt or greater impact energy are projected to strike Earth in 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense catalogs. Continuous Sentry monitoring and close-approach lists show no qualifying candidates on collision trajectories, while historical bolide records from CNEOS indicate only two such events since 1988, supporting an annual base rate well below 5 percent. Remaining months of the year further compress the already low statistical probability. A late-year discovery of an undetected decameter-scale object remains the principal uncertainty, though improved survey cadence and the short time window make this scenario improbable before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$8,955Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver 100 kt or greater impact energy are projected to strike Earth in 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense catalogs. Continuous Sentry monitoring and close-approach lists show no qualifying candidates on collision trajectories, while historical bolide records from CNEOS indicate only two such events since 1988, supporting an annual base rate well below 5 percent. Remaining months of the year further compress the already low statistical probability. A late-year discovery of an undetected decameter-scale object remains the principal uncertainty, though improved survey cadence and the short time window make this scenario improbable before December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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