Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like Sentry and the NEO Risk List has identified no near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of producing a 100kt atmospheric explosion in 2026, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied odds for "No." Historical impact rates for objects in this energy range remain low—roughly one event per several decades globally—with current catalogs showing only minuscule probabilities for any 2026 encounters. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits and detect new candidates, yet no model consensus or observational data signals elevated risk. While an undetected small asteroid or comet fragment could theoretically produce such an event, the absence of precursors and proximity to year-end resolution make meaningful shifts improbable absent a major new discovery.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like Sentry and the NEO Risk List has identified no near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of producing a 100kt atmospheric explosion in 2026, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied odds for "No." Historical impact rates for objects in this energy range remain low—roughly one event per several decades globally—with current catalogs showing only minuscule probabilities for any 2026 encounters. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits and detect new candidates, yet no model consensus or observational data signals elevated risk. While an undetected small asteroid or comet fragment could theoretically produce such an event, the absence of precursors and proximity to year-end resolution make meaningful shifts improbable absent a major new discovery.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,238Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like Sentry and the NEO Risk List has identified no near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of producing a 100kt atmospheric explosion in 2026, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied odds for "No." Historical impact rates for objects in this energy range remain low—roughly one event per several decades globally—with current catalogs showing only minuscule probabilities for any 2026 encounters. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits and detect new candidates, yet no model consensus or observational data signals elevated risk. While an undetected small asteroid or comet fragment could theoretically produce such an event, the absence of precursors and proximity to year-end resolution make meaningful shifts improbable absent a major new discovery.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$8,238Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like Sentry and the NEO Risk List has identified no near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of producing a 100kt atmospheric explosion in 2026, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied odds for "No." Historical impact rates for objects in this energy range remain low—roughly one event per several decades globally—with current catalogs showing only minuscule probabilities for any 2026 encounters. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits and detect new candidates, yet no model consensus or observational data signals elevated risk. While an undetected small asteroid or comet fragment could theoretically produce such an event, the absence of precursors and proximity to year-end resolution make meaningful shifts improbable absent a major new discovery.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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