Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert level with parameters firmly within baseline values, as confirmed by the latest INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano bulletins through August 2026. Seismic activity stays low, with dozens of minor events monthly (mostly below magnitude 1.0–2.0 and crater-focused), no detectable magmatic ground deformation via GNSS, stable fumarole temperatures, and a multi-year decline in hydrothermal gas emissions. The volcano has been quiescent since its 1944 eruption, with recurrence intervals for even VEI 1+ events typically spanning centuries. This sustained absence of precursory signals—such as uplift, long-period seismicity, or geochemical spikes—drives the 95.3% market-implied probability of no eruption through year-end. A sudden, undetected acceleration in unrest remains theoretically possible but unsupported by current multiparametric data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
5% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert level with parameters firmly within baseline values, as confirmed by the latest INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano bulletins through August 2026. Seismic activity stays low, with dozens of minor events monthly (mostly below magnitude 1.0–2.0 and crater-focused), no detectable magmatic ground deformation via GNSS, stable fumarole temperatures, and a multi-year decline in hydrothermal gas emissions. The volcano has been quiescent since its 1944 eruption, with recurrence intervals for even VEI 1+ events typically spanning centuries. This sustained absence of precursory signals—such as uplift, long-period seismicity, or geochemical spikes—drives the 95.3% market-implied probability of no eruption through year-end. A sudden, undetected acceleration in unrest remains theoretically possible but unsupported by current multiparametric data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Wolumen
$660Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert level with parameters firmly within baseline values, as confirmed by the latest INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano bulletins through August 2026. Seismic activity stays low, with dozens of minor events monthly (mostly below magnitude 1.0–2.0 and crater-focused), no detectable magmatic ground deformation via GNSS, stable fumarole temperatures, and a multi-year decline in hydrothermal gas emissions. The volcano has been quiescent since its 1944 eruption, with recurrence intervals for even VEI 1+ events typically spanning centuries. This sustained absence of precursory signals—such as uplift, long-period seismicity, or geochemical spikes—drives the 95.3% market-implied probability of no eruption through year-end. A sudden, undetected acceleration in unrest remains theoretically possible but unsupported by current multiparametric data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Wolumen
$660Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert level with parameters firmly within baseline values, as confirmed by the latest INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano bulletins through August 2026. Seismic activity stays low, with dozens of minor events monthly (mostly below magnitude 1.0–2.0 and crater-focused), no detectable magmatic ground deformation via GNSS, stable fumarole temperatures, and a multi-year decline in hydrothermal gas emissions. The volcano has been quiescent since its 1944 eruption, with recurrence intervals for even VEI 1+ events typically spanning centuries. This sustained absence of precursory signals—such as uplift, long-period seismicity, or geochemical spikes—drives the 95.3% market-implied probability of no eruption through year-end. A sudden, undetected acceleration in unrest remains theoretically possible but unsupported by current multiparametric data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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