Recent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by reduced Alpine snowmelt, below-average rainfall in headwater regions, and multiple summer heatwaves, have kept gauges like Kaub at record or near-record lows into early September 2026. Slow rises from scattered rain in southern Germany have begun easing the most acute restrictions, yet official outlooks and hydrological models indicate sustained flows sufficient for normal navigation remain weeks away. Trader consensus reflects this gradual trajectory, with probabilities split between mid-to-late September recovery and an October rebound because near-term precipitation forecasts carry high uncertainty and typical seasonal drying can extend the low-water period. Any prolonged dry spell or delayed autumn rains could push resolution later, while heavier upstream precipitation could accelerate normalization before October.