Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 64% for no major disruptions in 2026, driven by sustained geopolitical stability and absence of leadership upheavals through mid-April. Since the market launched on January 6, none of the triggers—such as President Trump leaving office, Xi Jinping ousted, Iranian regime collapse, China invading Taiwan, U.S. invading Iran, Russia invading a NATO country, or Republicans achieving a trifecta with Senate supermajority—have materialized. Bitcoin remains between $10k and $1M, and no qualifying earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or meteor strikes have occurred. This uneventful first quarter bolsters odds, though 2026 midterms loom as a potential catalyst for Senate shifts, underscoring the market's reflection of low-probability tail risks amid current calm.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNic się nigdy nie dzieje: 2026
Nic się nigdy nie dzieje: 2026
$502,734 Wol.
$502,734 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$502,734 Wol.
$502,734 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 64% for no major disruptions in 2026, driven by sustained geopolitical stability and absence of leadership upheavals through mid-April. Since the market launched on January 6, none of the triggers—such as President Trump leaving office, Xi Jinping ousted, Iranian regime collapse, China invading Taiwan, U.S. invading Iran, Russia invading a NATO country, or Republicans achieving a trifecta with Senate supermajority—have materialized. Bitcoin remains between $10k and $1M, and no qualifying earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or meteor strikes have occurred. This uneventful first quarter bolsters odds, though 2026 midterms loom as a potential catalyst for Senate shifts, underscoring the market's reflection of low-probability tail risks amid current calm.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$502,734Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 64% for no major disruptions in 2026, driven by sustained geopolitical stability and absence of leadership upheavals through mid-April. Since the market launched on January 6, none of the triggers—such as President Trump leaving office, Xi Jinping ousted, Iranian regime collapse, China invading Taiwan, U.S. invading Iran, Russia invading a NATO country, or Republicans achieving a trifecta with Senate supermajority—have materialized. Bitcoin remains between $10k and $1M, and no qualifying earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or meteor strikes have occurred. This uneventful first quarter bolsters odds, though 2026 midterms loom as a potential catalyst for Senate shifts, underscoring the market's reflection of low-probability tail risks amid current calm.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$502,734Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 64% for no major disruptions in 2026, driven by sustained geopolitical stability and absence of leadership upheavals through mid-April. Since the market launched on January 6, none of the triggers—such as President Trump leaving office, Xi Jinping ousted, Iranian regime collapse, China invading Taiwan, U.S. invading Iran, Russia invading a NATO country, or Republicans achieving a trifecta with Senate supermajority—have materialized. Bitcoin remains between $10k and $1M, and no qualifying earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or meteor strikes have occurred. This uneventful first quarter bolsters odds, though 2026 midterms loom as a potential catalyst for Senate shifts, underscoring the market's reflection of low-probability tail risks amid current calm.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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