Trader consensus assigns a 71.5% probability that none of the specified trigger events will occur by year-end 2026. This positioning stems from the absence of escalatory moves in major flashpoints, including sustained U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan without invasion signals, stable Iranian leadership amid ongoing nuclear talks, and no Russian incursions into NATO territory. Early 2026 legislative and executive actions have produced no supermajority shifts or abrupt presidential transitions, while commodity and cryptocurrency thresholds remain distant from listed extremes. Monthly variants of the series have resolved to “nothing” through May, reinforcing the view that structural barriers and diplomatic inertia continue to outweigh catalysts for rapid change.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNic się nigdy nie dzieje: 2026
Nic się nigdy nie dzieje: 2026
Tak
$592,889 Wol.
$592,889 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$592,889 Wol.
$592,889 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus assigns a 71.5% probability that none of the specified trigger events will occur by year-end 2026. This positioning stems from the absence of escalatory moves in major flashpoints, including sustained U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan without invasion signals, stable Iranian leadership amid ongoing nuclear talks, and no Russian incursions into NATO territory. Early 2026 legislative and executive actions have produced no supermajority shifts or abrupt presidential transitions, while commodity and cryptocurrency thresholds remain distant from listed extremes. Monthly variants of the series have resolved to “nothing” through May, reinforcing the view that structural barriers and diplomatic inertia continue to outweigh catalysts for rapid change.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$592,889Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus assigns a 71.5% probability that none of the specified trigger events will occur by year-end 2026. This positioning stems from the absence of escalatory moves in major flashpoints, including sustained U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan without invasion signals, stable Iranian leadership amid ongoing nuclear talks, and no Russian incursions into NATO territory. Early 2026 legislative and executive actions have produced no supermajority shifts or abrupt presidential transitions, while commodity and cryptocurrency thresholds remain distant from listed extremes. Monthly variants of the series have resolved to “nothing” through May, reinforcing the view that structural barriers and diplomatic inertia continue to outweigh catalysts for rapid change.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$592,889Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 71.5% probability that none of the specified trigger events will occur by year-end 2026. This positioning stems from the absence of escalatory moves in major flashpoints, including sustained U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan without invasion signals, stable Iranian leadership amid ongoing nuclear talks, and no Russian incursions into NATO territory. Early 2026 legislative and executive actions have produced no supermajority shifts or abrupt presidential transitions, while commodity and cryptocurrency thresholds remain distant from listed extremes. Monthly variants of the series have resolved to “nothing” through May, reinforcing the view that structural barriers and diplomatic inertia continue to outweigh catalysts for rapid change.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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