US-Turkey defense relations center on statutory barriers to F-35 reinstatement, primarily CAATSA and NDAA provisions requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses or operates its Russian S-400 system acquired in 2019. The Trump administration advanced a $700 million+ F-110 engine sale for Turkey’s KAAN program in June 2026 and signaled openness to broader access during the July NATO summit in Ankara, citing alliance priorities. However, a proposed S-400 transfer to the UAE collapsed by August, leaving the systems intact and stalling certification. Congressional opposition from both parties persists over security risks, regional alignments, and verification standards. Any reentry would require executive certification, congressional acquiescence, and verifiable removal of the Russian systems, with limited near-term catalysts apparent as of late September 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$45,066 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
8%
June 30, 2027
22%
$45,066 Wol.
December 31, 2026
$32,628 Wol.
8%
June 30, 2027
$12,438 Wol.
22%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US-Turkey defense relations center on statutory barriers to F-35 reinstatement, primarily CAATSA and NDAA provisions requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses or operates its Russian S-400 system acquired in 2019. The Trump administration advanced a $700 million+ F-110 engine sale for Turkey’s KAAN program in June 2026 and signaled openness to broader access during the July NATO summit in Ankara, citing alliance priorities. However, a proposed S-400 transfer to the UAE collapsed by August, leaving the systems intact and stalling certification. Congressional opposition from both parties persists over security risks, regional alignments, and verification standards. Any reentry would require executive certification, congressional acquiescence, and verifiable removal of the Russian systems, with limited near-term catalysts apparent as of late September 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Wolumen
$45,066Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US-Turkey defense relations center on statutory barriers to F-35 reinstatement, primarily CAATSA and NDAA provisions requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses or operates its Russian S-400 system acquired in 2019. The Trump administration advanced a $700 million+ F-110 engine sale for Turkey’s KAAN program in June 2026 and signaled openness to broader access during the July NATO summit in Ankara, citing alliance priorities. However, a proposed S-400 transfer to the UAE collapsed by August, leaving the systems intact and stalling certification. Congressional opposition from both parties persists over security risks, regional alignments, and verification standards. Any reentry would require executive certification, congressional acquiescence, and verifiable removal of the Russian systems, with limited near-term catalysts apparent as of late September 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Wolumen
$45,066Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...US-Turkey defense relations center on statutory barriers to F-35 reinstatement, primarily CAATSA and NDAA provisions requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses or operates its Russian S-400 system acquired in 2019. The Trump administration advanced a $700 million+ F-110 engine sale for Turkey’s KAAN program in June 2026 and signaled openness to broader access during the July NATO summit in Ankara, citing alliance priorities. However, a proposed S-400 transfer to the UAE collapsed by August, leaving the systems intact and stalling certification. Congressional opposition from both parties persists over security risks, regional alignments, and verification standards. Any reentry would require executive certification, congressional acquiescence, and verifiable removal of the Russian systems, with limited near-term catalysts apparent as of late September 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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