Elevated July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, anchor trader expectations for no change at the late-October FOMC meeting. These readings sustain the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range amid ongoing price pressures, particularly in energy, supporting the 67.5% market-implied odds of unchanged rates and the 27.5% chance of a 25 basis-point hike. The Fed’s hawkish June projections and communications emphasizing price stability reinforce this positioning, while low probabilities for cuts reflect limited downside risks in recent data. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September FOMC, which could shift sentiment if inflation moderates or labor conditions soften.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 28%
25 bps decrease 3.9%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,269,490 Wol.
$1,269,490 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
28%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 28%
25 bps decrease 3.9%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,269,490 Wol.
$1,269,490 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$207,856 Wol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$481,015 Wol.
4%
No change
$213,875 Wol.
68%
25 bps increase
$216,705 Wol.
28%
50+ bps increase
$150,040 Wol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, anchor trader expectations for no change at the late-October FOMC meeting. These readings sustain the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range amid ongoing price pressures, particularly in energy, supporting the 67.5% market-implied odds of unchanged rates and the 27.5% chance of a 25 basis-point hike. The Fed’s hawkish June projections and communications emphasizing price stability reinforce this positioning, while low probabilities for cuts reflect limited downside risks in recent data. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September FOMC, which could shift sentiment if inflation moderates or labor conditions soften.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,269,490Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, anchor trader expectations for no change at the late-October FOMC meeting. These readings sustain the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range amid ongoing price pressures, particularly in energy, supporting the 67.5% market-implied odds of unchanged rates and the 27.5% chance of a 25 basis-point hike. The Fed’s hawkish June projections and communications emphasizing price stability reinforce this positioning, while low probabilities for cuts reflect limited downside risks in recent data. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September FOMC, which could shift sentiment if inflation moderates or labor conditions soften.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$1,269,490Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, anchor trader expectations for no change at the late-October FOMC meeting. These readings sustain the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range amid ongoing price pressures, particularly in energy, supporting the 67.5% market-implied odds of unchanged rates and the 27.5% chance of a 25 basis-point hike. The Fed’s hawkish June projections and communications emphasizing price stability reinforce this positioning, while low probabilities for cuts reflect limited downside risks in recent data. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September FOMC, which could shift sentiment if inflation moderates or labor conditions soften.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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