Elevated inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by tariff effects, energy prices, and AI-related demand pressures, forms the primary driver behind the 58% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. With the current federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75%, recent June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections and FOMC minutes signaled a hawkish shift, projecting core PCE inflation near 3.3% through much of 2026 and delaying cuts until mid-2027 or later amid stabilizing labor market data showing unemployment near 4.3–4.4%. Trader consensus in the prediction market reflects this path, pricing modest odds of a 25 basis point hike at 22.5% while assigning lower probabilities to easing scenarios unless incoming Q4 2026 data reveal sharper labor weakening or inflation moderation ahead of the January decision.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in January?
Fed Decision in January?
No change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
$71,033 Wol.
$71,033 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
58%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
$71,033 Wol.
$71,033 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Wol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Wol.
14%
No change
$21,181 Wol.
58%
25 bps increase
$17,011 Wol.
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,985 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by tariff effects, energy prices, and AI-related demand pressures, forms the primary driver behind the 58% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. With the current federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75%, recent June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections and FOMC minutes signaled a hawkish shift, projecting core PCE inflation near 3.3% through much of 2026 and delaying cuts until mid-2027 or later amid stabilizing labor market data showing unemployment near 4.3–4.4%. Trader consensus in the prediction market reflects this path, pricing modest odds of a 25 basis point hike at 22.5% while assigning lower probabilities to easing scenarios unless incoming Q4 2026 data reveal sharper labor weakening or inflation moderation ahead of the January decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$71,033Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by tariff effects, energy prices, and AI-related demand pressures, forms the primary driver behind the 58% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. With the current federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75%, recent June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections and FOMC minutes signaled a hawkish shift, projecting core PCE inflation near 3.3% through much of 2026 and delaying cuts until mid-2027 or later amid stabilizing labor market data showing unemployment near 4.3–4.4%. Trader consensus in the prediction market reflects this path, pricing modest odds of a 25 basis point hike at 22.5% while assigning lower probabilities to easing scenarios unless incoming Q4 2026 data reveal sharper labor weakening or inflation moderation ahead of the January decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$71,033Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by tariff effects, energy prices, and AI-related demand pressures, forms the primary driver behind the 58% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. With the current federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75%, recent June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections and FOMC minutes signaled a hawkish shift, projecting core PCE inflation near 3.3% through much of 2026 and delaying cuts until mid-2027 or later amid stabilizing labor market data showing unemployment near 4.3–4.4%. Trader consensus in the prediction market reflects this path, pricing modest odds of a 25 basis point hike at 22.5% while assigning lower probabilities to easing scenarios unless incoming Q4 2026 data reveal sharper labor weakening or inflation moderation ahead of the January decision.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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