**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE near 3.3–3.4% and headline readings elevated by energy prices, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the September–December 2026 FOMC decisions.** A resilient labor market—unemployment near 4.1–4.3% with stable wage growth—supports the case for at least one 25-basis-point hike, consistent with the June dot plot’s median 3.8% year-end funds rate and hawkish signals from Chair Warsh. Markets price roughly 59% odds of a September move higher, yet the dispersed sequence probabilities (top outcome at 23.5%) reflect data dependence, upcoming CPI/PCE and employment releases, and debate over whether inflation will moderate without further tightening. Recent holds (including the 9–3 July decision) and mixed growth signals add to the contest among hike–pause paths versus steadier pauses.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike 24%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
24%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
7%
Hike–Hike–Pause
14%
Pause–Pause–Hike
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
13%
Pause–Hike–Hike
7%
Pause–Hike–Pause
9%
Other
6%
Hike–Pause–Hike 24%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$114 Wol.
24%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$81 Wol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$50 Wol.
7%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$68 Wol.
14%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$96 Wol.
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$45 Wol.
13%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$35 Wol.
7%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$52 Wol.
9%
Other
$35 Wol.
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE near 3.3–3.4% and headline readings elevated by energy prices, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the September–December 2026 FOMC decisions.** A resilient labor market—unemployment near 4.1–4.3% with stable wage growth—supports the case for at least one 25-basis-point hike, consistent with the June dot plot’s median 3.8% year-end funds rate and hawkish signals from Chair Warsh. Markets price roughly 59% odds of a September move higher, yet the dispersed sequence probabilities (top outcome at 23.5%) reflect data dependence, upcoming CPI/PCE and employment releases, and debate over whether inflation will moderate without further tightening. Recent holds (including the 9–3 July decision) and mixed growth signals add to the contest among hike–pause paths versus steadier pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$577Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE near 3.3–3.4% and headline readings elevated by energy prices, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the September–December 2026 FOMC decisions.** A resilient labor market—unemployment near 4.1–4.3% with stable wage growth—supports the case for at least one 25-basis-point hike, consistent with the June dot plot’s median 3.8% year-end funds rate and hawkish signals from Chair Warsh. Markets price roughly 59% odds of a September move higher, yet the dispersed sequence probabilities (top outcome at 23.5%) reflect data dependence, upcoming CPI/PCE and employment releases, and debate over whether inflation will moderate without further tightening. Recent holds (including the 9–3 July decision) and mixed growth signals add to the contest among hike–pause paths versus steadier pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$577Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE near 3.3–3.4% and headline readings elevated by energy prices, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the September–December 2026 FOMC decisions.** A resilient labor market—unemployment near 4.1–4.3% with stable wage growth—supports the case for at least one 25-basis-point hike, consistent with the June dot plot’s median 3.8% year-end funds rate and hawkish signals from Chair Warsh. Markets price roughly 59% odds of a September move higher, yet the dispersed sequence probabilities (top outcome at 23.5%) reflect data dependence, upcoming CPI/PCE and employment releases, and debate over whether inflation will moderate without further tightening. Recent holds (including the 9–3 July decision) and mixed growth signals add to the contest among hike–pause paths versus steadier pauses.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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