Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike, anchored by the FOMC's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid balanced risks to its dual mandate. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by war-related oil shocks from the Iran conflict, prompting Fed minutes released April 8 to signal growing openness among some officials to hikes if inflation persists. CME FedWatch Tool prices just 1.6% odds of a 25 basis point increase at the April 28-29 meeting, with futures implying a steady path near 3.6% through year-end. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and labor data, testing policy resolve against upside inflation pressures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$31,312 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
April Meeting
1%
June Meeting
4%
July Meeting
16%
September Meeting
15%
October Meeting
19%
$31,312 Wol.
April Meeting
$24,301 Wol.
1%
June Meeting
$6,580 Wol.
4%
July Meeting
$372 Wol.
16%
September Meeting
$3 Wol.
15%
October Meeting
$55 Wol.
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike, anchored by the FOMC's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid balanced risks to its dual mandate. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by war-related oil shocks from the Iran conflict, prompting Fed minutes released April 8 to signal growing openness among some officials to hikes if inflation persists. CME FedWatch Tool prices just 1.6% odds of a 25 basis point increase at the April 28-29 meeting, with futures implying a steady path near 3.6% through year-end. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and labor data, testing policy resolve against upside inflation pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$31,312Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike, anchored by the FOMC's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid balanced risks to its dual mandate. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by war-related oil shocks from the Iran conflict, prompting Fed minutes released April 8 to signal growing openness among some officials to hikes if inflation persists. CME FedWatch Tool prices just 1.6% odds of a 25 basis point increase at the April 28-29 meeting, with futures implying a steady path near 3.6% through year-end. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and labor data, testing policy resolve against upside inflation pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$31,312Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike, anchored by the FOMC's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid balanced risks to its dual mandate. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by war-related oil shocks from the Iran conflict, prompting Fed minutes released April 8 to signal growing openness among some officials to hikes if inflation persists. CME FedWatch Tool prices just 1.6% odds of a 25 basis point increase at the April 28-29 meeting, with futures implying a steady path near 3.6% through year-end. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and labor data, testing policy resolve against upside inflation pressures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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