Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike by early 2027, with roughly 30 percent probability priced into options and around 60 percent odds of an increase by January per CME FedWatch. The target range remains 3.50-3.75 percent following the April 29 decision, and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady with over 95 percent probability. Traders are monitoring the labor market trajectory, upcoming CPI releases, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh communications for signs that policy may pivot from the prior easing path amid anchored long-term inflation expectations near 2 percent.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$155,246 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
5%
September Meeting
12%
October Meeting
28%
$155,246 Wol.
June Meeting
$16,328 Wol.
1%
July Meeting
$2,000 Wol.
5%
September Meeting
$3,063 Wol.
12%
October Meeting
$2,547 Wol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike by early 2027, with roughly 30 percent probability priced into options and around 60 percent odds of an increase by January per CME FedWatch. The target range remains 3.50-3.75 percent following the April 29 decision, and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady with over 95 percent probability. Traders are monitoring the labor market trajectory, upcoming CPI releases, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh communications for signs that policy may pivot from the prior easing path amid anchored long-term inflation expectations near 2 percent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$155,246Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike by early 2027, with roughly 30 percent probability priced into options and around 60 percent odds of an increase by January per CME FedWatch. The target range remains 3.50-3.75 percent following the April 29 decision, and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady with over 95 percent probability. Traders are monitoring the labor market trajectory, upcoming CPI releases, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh communications for signs that policy may pivot from the prior easing path amid anchored long-term inflation expectations near 2 percent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$155,246Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike by early 2027, with roughly 30 percent probability priced into options and around 60 percent odds of an increase by January per CME FedWatch. The target range remains 3.50-3.75 percent following the April 29 decision, and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady with over 95 percent probability. Traders are monitoring the labor market trajectory, upcoming CPI releases, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh communications for signs that policy may pivot from the prior easing path amid anchored long-term inflation expectations near 2 percent.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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