Persistent inflation, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, remains the dominant driver anchoring trader expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The central bank has held its federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since early 2026, supported by a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and modest payroll gains. Futures markets now assign rising implied probability to a 25 basis point hike by year-end or early 2027 if core readings stay elevated, contrasting earlier forecasts for easing. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which includes updated economic projections, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift rate path consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$155,014 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
7%
September Meeting
11%
October Meeting
28%
$155,014 Wol.
June Meeting
$16,328 Wol.
1%
July Meeting
$1,768 Wol.
7%
September Meeting
$3,063 Wol.
11%
October Meeting
$2,547 Wol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, remains the dominant driver anchoring trader expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The central bank has held its federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since early 2026, supported by a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and modest payroll gains. Futures markets now assign rising implied probability to a 25 basis point hike by year-end or early 2027 if core readings stay elevated, contrasting earlier forecasts for easing. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which includes updated economic projections, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift rate path consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$155,014Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, remains the dominant driver anchoring trader expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The central bank has held its federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since early 2026, supported by a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and modest payroll gains. Futures markets now assign rising implied probability to a 25 basis point hike by year-end or early 2027 if core readings stay elevated, contrasting earlier forecasts for easing. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which includes updated economic projections, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift rate path consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$155,014Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, remains the dominant driver anchoring trader expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The central bank has held its federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since early 2026, supported by a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and modest payroll gains. Futures markets now assign rising implied probability to a 25 basis point hike by year-end or early 2027 if core readings stay elevated, contrasting earlier forecasts for easing. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which includes updated economic projections, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift rate path consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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