Recent FOMC communications and July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year—with core inflation at 2.5%—continue to anchor trader expectations around the September 15–16 meeting, where the federal funds rate target remains 3.50–3.75%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and three dissenting votes at the July meeting for a 25-basis-point hike have lifted the implied probability of action, as reflected in futures pricing near 57%. A resilient labor market and solid economic growth contrast with the Fed’s commitment to its 2% goal, while the August CPI release on September 11 and the Beige Book offer fresh inputs that could shift the market-implied rate path ahead of the next decision.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$2,698,535 Wol.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
60%
October Meeting
67%
$2,698,535 Wol.
September Meeting
$1,168,103 Wol.
60%
October Meeting
$570,432 Wol.
67%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FOMC communications and July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year—with core inflation at 2.5%—continue to anchor trader expectations around the September 15–16 meeting, where the federal funds rate target remains 3.50–3.75%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and three dissenting votes at the July meeting for a 25-basis-point hike have lifted the implied probability of action, as reflected in futures pricing near 57%. A resilient labor market and solid economic growth contrast with the Fed’s commitment to its 2% goal, while the August CPI release on September 11 and the Beige Book offer fresh inputs that could shift the market-implied rate path ahead of the next decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,698,535Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FOMC communications and July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year—with core inflation at 2.5%—continue to anchor trader expectations around the September 15–16 meeting, where the federal funds rate target remains 3.50–3.75%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and three dissenting votes at the July meeting for a 25-basis-point hike have lifted the implied probability of action, as reflected in futures pricing near 57%. A resilient labor market and solid economic growth contrast with the Fed’s commitment to its 2% goal, while the August CPI release on September 11 and the Beige Book offer fresh inputs that could shift the market-implied rate path ahead of the next decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$2,698,535Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent FOMC communications and July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year—with core inflation at 2.5%—continue to anchor trader expectations around the September 15–16 meeting, where the federal funds rate target remains 3.50–3.75%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and three dissenting votes at the July meeting for a 25-basis-point hike have lifted the implied probability of action, as reflected in futures pricing near 57%. A resilient labor market and solid economic growth contrast with the Fed’s commitment to its 2% goal, while the August CPI release on September 11 and the Beige Book offer fresh inputs that could shift the market-implied rate path ahead of the next decision.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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