Persistent above-target inflation, with April headline CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and core measures holding near 2.8-3.3%, alongside a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and steady job gains, has driven the balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Traders are pricing a gradual upward path in the federal funds rate toward 3.8% by year-end amid energy-driven price pressures and a data-dependent FOMC stance, shifting away from earlier cut expectations. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC meeting, including updated projections, represent key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate path implied by Treasury yields and futures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPodwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Podwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Tak
$1,583,705 Wol.
$1,583,705 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Tak
$1,583,705 Wol.
$1,583,705 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation, with April headline CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and core measures holding near 2.8-3.3%, alongside a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and steady job gains, has driven the balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Traders are pricing a gradual upward path in the federal funds rate toward 3.8% by year-end amid energy-driven price pressures and a data-dependent FOMC stance, shifting away from earlier cut expectations. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC meeting, including updated projections, represent key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate path implied by Treasury yields and futures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,583,705Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation, with April headline CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and core measures holding near 2.8-3.3%, alongside a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and steady job gains, has driven the balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Traders are pricing a gradual upward path in the federal funds rate toward 3.8% by year-end amid energy-driven price pressures and a data-dependent FOMC stance, shifting away from earlier cut expectations. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC meeting, including updated projections, represent key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate path implied by Treasury yields and futures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,583,719Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent above-target inflation, with April headline CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and core measures holding near 2.8-3.3%, alongside a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and steady job gains, has driven the balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Traders are pricing a gradual upward path in the federal funds rate toward 3.8% by year-end amid energy-driven price pressures and a data-dependent FOMC stance, shifting away from earlier cut expectations. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC meeting, including updated projections, represent key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate path implied by Treasury yields and futures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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