Recent robust U.S. labor market data, including May 2026 nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 against expectations of 80,000 and unemployment holding at 4.3%, combined with April CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, have narrowed the gap in market-implied odds for a federal funds rate hike sometime in 2026 to 54.5% on the Yes side. Traders now see a firmer policy path than earlier forecasts suggested, with Goldman Sachs shifting its rate-cut timeline into 2027 while still viewing a hike as unlikely. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where no change is priced at 99%, and the May CPI release on June 10 represent near-term catalysts that could decisively shift the closely balanced probabilities depending on whether inflation moderates or labor strength persists.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPodwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Podwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Tak
$1,570,341 Wol.
$1,570,341 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Tak
$1,570,341 Wol.
$1,570,341 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent robust U.S. labor market data, including May 2026 nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 against expectations of 80,000 and unemployment holding at 4.3%, combined with April CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, have narrowed the gap in market-implied odds for a federal funds rate hike sometime in 2026 to 54.5% on the Yes side. Traders now see a firmer policy path than earlier forecasts suggested, with Goldman Sachs shifting its rate-cut timeline into 2027 while still viewing a hike as unlikely. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where no change is priced at 99%, and the May CPI release on June 10 represent near-term catalysts that could decisively shift the closely balanced probabilities depending on whether inflation moderates or labor strength persists.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,570,341Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent robust U.S. labor market data, including May 2026 nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 against expectations of 80,000 and unemployment holding at 4.3%, combined with April CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, have narrowed the gap in market-implied odds for a federal funds rate hike sometime in 2026 to 54.5% on the Yes side. Traders now see a firmer policy path than earlier forecasts suggested, with Goldman Sachs shifting its rate-cut timeline into 2027 while still viewing a hike as unlikely. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where no change is priced at 99%, and the May CPI release on June 10 represent near-term catalysts that could decisively shift the closely balanced probabilities depending on whether inflation moderates or labor strength persists.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,570,341Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent robust U.S. labor market data, including May 2026 nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 against expectations of 80,000 and unemployment holding at 4.3%, combined with April CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, have narrowed the gap in market-implied odds for a federal funds rate hike sometime in 2026 to 54.5% on the Yes side. Traders now see a firmer policy path than earlier forecasts suggested, with Goldman Sachs shifting its rate-cut timeline into 2027 while still viewing a hike as unlikely. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where no change is priced at 99%, and the May CPI release on June 10 represent near-term catalysts that could decisively shift the closely balanced probabilities depending on whether inflation moderates or labor strength persists.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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