Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East conflict-driven energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market and strong May jobs data, have shifted the Fed toward a more hawkish stance, with futures now pricing a modest chance of hikes later in 2026. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 59.5% probability to no rate increase this year because the base case remains steady policy at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, as most economists expect the central bank to hold through year-end absent further acceleration in CPI or wage growth. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision, upcoming inflation releases, and any revisions to the dot plot that could alter market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPodwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Podwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Tak
$1,853,842 Wol.
$1,853,842 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Tak
$1,853,842 Wol.
$1,853,842 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East conflict-driven energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market and strong May jobs data, have shifted the Fed toward a more hawkish stance, with futures now pricing a modest chance of hikes later in 2026. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 59.5% probability to no rate increase this year because the base case remains steady policy at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, as most economists expect the central bank to hold through year-end absent further acceleration in CPI or wage growth. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision, upcoming inflation releases, and any revisions to the dot plot that could alter market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,853,842Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East conflict-driven energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market and strong May jobs data, have shifted the Fed toward a more hawkish stance, with futures now pricing a modest chance of hikes later in 2026. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 59.5% probability to no rate increase this year because the base case remains steady policy at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, as most economists expect the central bank to hold through year-end absent further acceleration in CPI or wage growth. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision, upcoming inflation releases, and any revisions to the dot plot that could alter market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,853,877Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East conflict-driven energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market and strong May jobs data, have shifted the Fed toward a more hawkish stance, with futures now pricing a modest chance of hikes later in 2026. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 59.5% probability to no rate increase this year because the base case remains steady policy at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, as most economists expect the central bank to hold through year-end absent further acceleration in CPI or wage growth. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision, upcoming inflation releases, and any revisions to the dot plot that could alter market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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