The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
4% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
4% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Wolumen
$5,693Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$5,693Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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