The dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a January probe into his Senate testimony on the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. No charges have been filed, subpoenas were quashed by a federal judge, and the matter was referred to the Fed’s inspector general, reflecting the absence of material evidence of criminal conduct amid politically charged tensions over monetary policy independence. Institutional safeguards, including Powell’s term structure and lack of substantiation for false-statement allegations, reinforce trader consensus around this base rate. Tail risks remain limited to unexpected new probes or escalations, though these would require substantial unforeseen developments to shift the current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a January probe into his Senate testimony on the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. No charges have been filed, subpoenas were quashed by a federal judge, and the matter was referred to the Fed’s inspector general, reflecting the absence of material evidence of criminal conduct amid politically charged tensions over monetary policy independence. Institutional safeguards, including Powell’s term structure and lack of substantiation for false-statement allegations, reinforce trader consensus around this base rate. Tail risks remain limited to unexpected new probes or escalations, though these would require substantial unforeseen developments to shift the current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,761Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a January probe into his Senate testimony on the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. No charges have been filed, subpoenas were quashed by a federal judge, and the matter was referred to the Fed’s inspector general, reflecting the absence of material evidence of criminal conduct amid politically charged tensions over monetary policy independence. Institutional safeguards, including Powell’s term structure and lack of substantiation for false-statement allegations, reinforce trader consensus around this base rate. Tail risks remain limited to unexpected new probes or escalations, though these would require substantial unforeseen developments to shift the current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,761Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a January probe into his Senate testimony on the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. No charges have been filed, subpoenas were quashed by a federal judge, and the matter was referred to the Fed’s inspector general, reflecting the absence of material evidence of criminal conduct amid politically charged tensions over monetary policy independence. Institutional safeguards, including Powell’s term structure and lack of substantiation for false-statement allegations, reinforce trader consensus around this base rate. Tail risks remain limited to unexpected new probes or escalations, though these would require substantial unforeseen developments to shift the current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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