The closure of the U.S. Department of Justice criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 without charges underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that he will not face jail time before 2027. The inquiry, opened in January amid scrutiny of headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony, drew criticism as an attempt to pressure monetary policy decisions on interest rates. With the matter referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no evidence of wrongdoing established, traders view further prosecution as highly improbable given institutional norms and Powell’s term structure. While tail-risk scenarios such as renewed politically driven investigations remain possible before 2027, the absence of active proceedings and precedent for shielding central bank officials support the overwhelming consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closure of the U.S. Department of Justice criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 without charges underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that he will not face jail time before 2027. The inquiry, opened in January amid scrutiny of headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony, drew criticism as an attempt to pressure monetary policy decisions on interest rates. With the matter referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no evidence of wrongdoing established, traders view further prosecution as highly improbable given institutional norms and Powell’s term structure. While tail-risk scenarios such as renewed politically driven investigations remain possible before 2027, the absence of active proceedings and precedent for shielding central bank officials support the overwhelming consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,761Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closure of the U.S. Department of Justice criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 without charges underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that he will not face jail time before 2027. The inquiry, opened in January amid scrutiny of headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony, drew criticism as an attempt to pressure monetary policy decisions on interest rates. With the matter referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no evidence of wrongdoing established, traders view further prosecution as highly improbable given institutional norms and Powell’s term structure. While tail-risk scenarios such as renewed politically driven investigations remain possible before 2027, the absence of active proceedings and precedent for shielding central bank officials support the overwhelming consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,761Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closure of the U.S. Department of Justice criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 without charges underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that he will not face jail time before 2027. The inquiry, opened in January amid scrutiny of headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony, drew criticism as an attempt to pressure monetary policy decisions on interest rates. With the matter referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no evidence of wrongdoing established, traders view further prosecution as highly improbable given institutional norms and Powell’s term structure. While tail-risk scenarios such as renewed politically driven investigations remain possible before 2027, the absence of active proceedings and precedent for shielding central bank officials support the overwhelming consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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