The closure of the U.S. Department of Justice criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 without charges underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that he will not face jail time before 2027. The inquiry, opened in January amid scrutiny of headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony, drew criticism as an attempt to pressure monetary policy decisions on interest rates. With the matter referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no evidence of wrongdoing established, traders view further prosecution as highly improbable given institutional norms and Powell’s term structure. While tail-risk scenarios such as renewed politically driven investigations remain possible before 2027, the absence of active proceedings and precedent for shielding central bank officials support the overwhelming consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The closure of the U.S. Department of Justice criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 without charges underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that he will not face jail time before 2027. The inquiry, opened in January amid scrutiny of headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony, drew criticism as an attempt to pressure monetary policy decisions on interest rates. With the matter referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no evidence of wrongdoing established, traders view further prosecution as highly improbable given institutional norms and Powell’s term structure. While tail-risk scenarios such as renewed politically driven investigations remain possible before 2027, the absence of active proceedings and precedent for shielding central bank officials support the overwhelming consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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