Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023 and driven by sharp energy price increases, has anchored trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. A resilient labor market, with unemployment steady near 4.3% and consistent payroll gains, has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent approach and emphasis on upside inflation risks evident in recent communications. This environment produces market-implied odds above 92% for holding rates steady, aligning with futures pricing and the current policy path. The May CPI release on June 10 and June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections represent the key near-term data points that could shift sentiment if they signal materially faster disinflation than recent trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDecyzja Fed w lipcu?
Decyzja Fed w lipcu?
Brak zmiany 93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 5.8%
Obniżka o 25 pb 1.8%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$7,506,520 Wol.
$7,506,520 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
2%
Brak zmiany
93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
6%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
<1%
Brak zmiany 93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 5.8%
Obniżka o 25 pb 1.8%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$7,506,520 Wol.
$7,506,520 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
$979,269 Wol.
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
$755,444 Wol.
2%
Brak zmiany
$954,328 Wol.
93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
$3,784,405 Wol.
6%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
$1,033,126 Wol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023 and driven by sharp energy price increases, has anchored trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. A resilient labor market, with unemployment steady near 4.3% and consistent payroll gains, has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent approach and emphasis on upside inflation risks evident in recent communications. This environment produces market-implied odds above 92% for holding rates steady, aligning with futures pricing and the current policy path. The May CPI release on June 10 and June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections represent the key near-term data points that could shift sentiment if they signal materially faster disinflation than recent trends.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,506,520Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023 and driven by sharp energy price increases, has anchored trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. A resilient labor market, with unemployment steady near 4.3% and consistent payroll gains, has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent approach and emphasis on upside inflation risks evident in recent communications. This environment produces market-implied odds above 92% for holding rates steady, aligning with futures pricing and the current policy path. The May CPI release on June 10 and June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections represent the key near-term data points that could shift sentiment if they signal materially faster disinflation than recent trends.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$7,506,520Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023 and driven by sharp energy price increases, has anchored trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. A resilient labor market, with unemployment steady near 4.3% and consistent payroll gains, has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent approach and emphasis on upside inflation risks evident in recent communications. This environment produces market-implied odds above 92% for holding rates steady, aligning with futures pricing and the current policy path. The May CPI release on June 10 and June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections represent the key near-term data points that could shift sentiment if they signal materially faster disinflation than recent trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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