Elevated inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3% and steady job gains, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate range of 3.50%-3.75% has remained in place since late 2025, with recent FOMC communications and minutes signaling a cautious hold to monitor inflation trajectories and economic data. This pricing reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital, consistent with analyst forecasts for steady policy through year-end absent major shifts. June CPI and employment releases ahead of the July 28-29 meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could alter expectations if they deviate sharply from consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDecyzja Fed w lipcu?
Decyzja Fed w lipcu?
Brak zmiany 93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 5.8%
Obniżka o 25 pb 1.8%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$7,497,153 Wol.
$7,497,153 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
2%
Brak zmiany
93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
6%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
<1%
Brak zmiany 93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 5.8%
Obniżka o 25 pb 1.8%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$7,497,153 Wol.
$7,497,153 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
$979,185 Wol.
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
$755,094 Wol.
2%
Brak zmiany
$954,199 Wol.
93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
$3,784,296 Wol.
6%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
$1,024,520 Wol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3% and steady job gains, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate range of 3.50%-3.75% has remained in place since late 2025, with recent FOMC communications and minutes signaling a cautious hold to monitor inflation trajectories and economic data. This pricing reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital, consistent with analyst forecasts for steady policy through year-end absent major shifts. June CPI and employment releases ahead of the July 28-29 meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could alter expectations if they deviate sharply from consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,497,153Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3% and steady job gains, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate range of 3.50%-3.75% has remained in place since late 2025, with recent FOMC communications and minutes signaling a cautious hold to monitor inflation trajectories and economic data. This pricing reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital, consistent with analyst forecasts for steady policy through year-end absent major shifts. June CPI and employment releases ahead of the July 28-29 meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could alter expectations if they deviate sharply from consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$7,497,153Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3% and steady job gains, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate range of 3.50%-3.75% has remained in place since late 2025, with recent FOMC communications and minutes signaling a cautious hold to monitor inflation trajectories and economic data. This pricing reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital, consistent with analyst forecasts for steady policy through year-end absent major shifts. June CPI and employment releases ahead of the July 28-29 meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could alter expectations if they deviate sharply from consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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