Elevated inflation readings and resilient labor market data have positioned a 25 basis point rate increase as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds at 57.5%. Persistent price pressures, including supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted 2026 PCE inflation projections to around 3.6% in recent Fed summaries, while unemployment near 4.3% and solid job gains have tempered expectations for easing. This contrasts with the current 3.5-3.75% target range held steady at the July meeting and aligns with the June dot plot's median endpoint of 3.8%. Traders are monitoring the September 15-16 FOMC decision and subsequent inflation and employment releases for shifts in the policy path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
50+ bps increase 1.9%
$709,333 Wol.
$709,333 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
57%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
50+ bps increase 1.9%
$709,333 Wol.
$709,333 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$106,284 Wol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$159,518 Wol.
3%
No change
$141,765 Wol.
40%
25 bps increase
$193,974 Wol.
57%
50+ bps increase
$107,792 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and resilient labor market data have positioned a 25 basis point rate increase as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds at 57.5%. Persistent price pressures, including supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted 2026 PCE inflation projections to around 3.6% in recent Fed summaries, while unemployment near 4.3% and solid job gains have tempered expectations for easing. This contrasts with the current 3.5-3.75% target range held steady at the July meeting and aligns with the June dot plot's median endpoint of 3.8%. Traders are monitoring the September 15-16 FOMC decision and subsequent inflation and employment releases for shifts in the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$709,333Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and resilient labor market data have positioned a 25 basis point rate increase as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds at 57.5%. Persistent price pressures, including supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted 2026 PCE inflation projections to around 3.6% in recent Fed summaries, while unemployment near 4.3% and solid job gains have tempered expectations for easing. This contrasts with the current 3.5-3.75% target range held steady at the July meeting and aligns with the June dot plot's median endpoint of 3.8%. Traders are monitoring the September 15-16 FOMC decision and subsequent inflation and employment releases for shifts in the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$709,333Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and resilient labor market data have positioned a 25 basis point rate increase as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds at 57.5%. Persistent price pressures, including supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted 2026 PCE inflation projections to around 3.6% in recent Fed summaries, while unemployment near 4.3% and solid job gains have tempered expectations for easing. This contrasts with the current 3.5-3.75% target range held steady at the July meeting and aligns with the June dot plot's median endpoint of 3.8%. Traders are monitoring the September 15-16 FOMC decision and subsequent inflation and employment releases for shifts in the policy path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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