Diplomatic negotiations toward a lasting settlement, including tentative agreements on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing Iran's nuclear program, have kept the probability of a U.S. ground invasion low through mid-2026. Following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that began February 28 and killed Iran's supreme leader, the sides established a ceasefire in April that has largely held despite intermittent exchanges of strikes and naval actions into June. U.S. operations have remained focused on missile sites, air defenses, and maritime threats rather than troop deployments for territorial control. Traders view these limited engagements, combined with ongoing indirect talks and the absence of announced plans for occupation, as strong signals against escalation to invasion before 2027.