**US military operations against Iran have remained limited to airstrikes, naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, and targeted responses since the February 2026 escalation, with no commitment of ground forces for a full-scale invasion.** Recent exchanges in early September 2026 involved US strikes on Iranian coastal and IRGC targets followed by Iranian missile responses against US positions in Jordan, yet both sides have described actions as calibrated and defensive rather than escalatory toward occupation. Trump administration statements emphasize economic sanctions, blockades, and air pressure to degrade Iranian capabilities while repeatedly signaling reluctance for large ground operations that would require far more than the roughly 50,000 US troops currently in the region. Military assessments highlight the extraordinary risks, troop demands exceeding 100,000 for meaningful mainland or island seizures like Kharg, and potential for high casualties against Iran’s mobilized forces. Traders appear to view these constraints, combined with ongoing diplomatic channels and midterm political considerations, as significant barriers to a US invasion materializing before 2027.