Ongoing diplomatic negotiations and a fragile ceasefire amid limited exchanges of strikes explain the strong trader consensus against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. Following initial U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in February 2026 and subsequent naval actions including a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, talks mediated by Pakistan have continued into June with focus on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and navigation rights. Recent days have seen Iranian drone attempts countered by U.S. forces and missile warnings, yet both sides have signaled willingness to pursue deals rather than escalation to occupation. Historical patterns of U.S. military restraint in similar regional conflicts and the absence of announced ground troop deployments further support the current pricing. Late-breaking breakdowns in talks or major Iranian provocations remain the primary risks that could shift probabilities.