US-Iran military tensions since late February 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, amid broader conflict involving strikes on military targets and a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Repeated US and Israeli strikes have hit IRGC positions, air defenses, and related sites on Kharg and nearby islands such as Larak, yet oil infrastructure has remained largely intact and operations have resumed or continued via rerouting despite export disruptions. President Trump has issued repeated public threats to seize the island or "take total control" of its facilities to pressure Tehran, including recent social media posts with AI-generated imagery, but US officials have clarified that recent actions avoided Kharg itself and no ground occupation or transfer of governmental or military control has occurred. Iran has reinforced defenses while maintaining operational continuity, with satellite data showing periodic terminal activity amid the blockade. Upcoming diplomatic or escalation signals in the conflict could influence short-term probabilities before any resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSatellite imagery confirms continued Iranian control and operation of Kharg Island oil terminals
July 31 dips to 0%1%
Satellite images showed tanker congestion and ongoing oil loading activities at Kharg Island, indicating Iran maintained operational control of the island's critical oil export facilities through the end of July 2026.
No Official Change in Control of Kharg Island by Resolution Date
July 31 dips to 0%2%
Despite ongoing military threats and strikes, no credible reports or official statements confirmed that Iran lost control of Kharg Island by the resolution date, leading to the market resolving toward 'No' for control change.
Market consensus solidifies that Kharg Island remains under Iranian control
July 31 dips to 0%2%
By late July 2026, no credible reports or official statements indicated a change in control of Kharg Island. Despite ongoing conflict and U.S. military pressure, Iran maintained primary governmental and military control, leading the market to price the probability of loss of control near zero by July 31, 2026.
Iran Warns of Repercussions if U.S. Attempts to Seize Kharg Island
July 31 dips to 0%3%
Iran's Foreign Ministry issued warnings against any U.S. attempt to seize Kharg Island, signaling strong defensive posture and reducing market expectations of a change in control by July 31.
Iran warns of repercussions if US attempts to seize Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a warning that any attempts to seize Kharg Island would face strong local resistance and repercussions, reinforcing Iran’s defensive posture and reducing the likelihood of a U.S. takeover, which contributed to the market's low probability for loss of Iranian control.
Iran challenges U.S. forces over Kharg Island amid rising tensions
Iran issued bold challenges to U.S. forces regarding Kharg Island, reinforcing its control and deterring any foreign attempts to seize the island, which maintained market skepticism about a change in control by July 31.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry reiterates strong defensive posture on Kharg Island amid U.S. threats
July 31 drops to 0%8%
On July 20, 2026, Iran reiterated warnings against any U.S. attempts to seize Kharg Island, signaling strong defensive resolve and contributing to further decline in market probabilities for a change in control.
Iran warns of repercussions if U.S. attempts to seize Kharg Island
July 31 dips to 0%2%
Iran's Foreign Ministry issued warnings that any U.S. attempt to seize Kharg Island would face strong local resistance, signaling firm Iranian control and deterring U.S. ground operations, contributing to low market probabilities for control change.
U.S. strikes Kharg Island again amid ongoing conflict
August 31 rises to 11%4%
U.S. forces conducted additional strikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, causing explosions reported by Iranian state media but no indication of loss of Iranian control, sustaining market expectations of no change.
Kharg Island seizure threat drives crude past $80 amid Iran strikes
July 31 rises to 2%1%
A TechTimes article warned that a Kharg Island seizure could trigger a severe Iranian response and push oil prices beyond $80, reflecting market anxiety about potential escalation.
Kharg Island seizure threat drives crude oil prices above $80
August 31 jumps to 11%5%
On July 16, market reports highlighted that a potential U.S. seizure of Kharg Island would severely disrupt Iran's crude exports and could trigger a strong Iranian response, pushing oil prices higher and reflecting increased geopolitical risk.
Retired Navy SEAL discusses U.S. military capability to seize Kharg Island
On July 16, 2026, a retired U.S. Navy SEAL highlighted the military's capacity to seize Kharg Island for economic leverage, emphasizing its strategic importance but not indicating any actual change in control.
Kharg Island seizure threat pushes crude oil prices above $80 amid Iran strikes
August 31 rises to 8%2%
On July 16, the threat of a U.S. seizure of Kharg Island contributed to a spike in global crude prices, reflecting market fears of disruption to Iran's oil exports, though no actual control change occurred.
U.S. military disables oil tanker near Kharg Island amid ongoing strikes
August 31 rises to 11%4%
On July 15, 2026, U.S. Central Command reported disabling an oil tanker near Kharg Island attempting to evade the U.S. blockade, indicating continued military tension but no change in control of the island itself.
Experts express skepticism about US seizing Kharg Island due to military challenges
Military analysts expressed doubts that the US would attempt to seize Kharg Island given the need for sustained naval protection, air superiority, and the risk of an open-ended territorial commitment, reinforcing market expectations that control would remain with Iran.
Experts skeptical about U.S. seizing Kharg Island despite threats
August 31 dips to 7%3%
Military analysts and experts expressed skepticism that the U.S. would attempt to seize Kharg Island due to the high risks and costs involved, which tempered market expectations for a change in control despite ongoing conflict and threats.
U.S. strikes Iran and oil tanker heading to Kharg Island
August 31 rises to 4%2%
CENTCOM conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian command centers and missile sites, and disabled an oil tanker attempting to reach Kharg Island, escalating military conflict in the region.
U.S. military launches new strikes on Iranian command centers and missile sites
August 31 dips to 3%1%
The U.S. intensified strikes targeting Iranian command centers, air defense sites, and missile and drone capabilities in the region around Kharg Island, aiming to degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping. Despite the escalation, Iran maintained control over Kharg Island, keeping market probabilities low.
U.S. disables oil tanker en route to Kharg Island amid renewed strikes
August 31 dips to 3%3%
CENTCOM struck and disabled an unladen oil tanker heading toward Kharg Island, enforcing the naval blockade and maintaining pressure on Iranian oil exports, but no change in control of the island was reported.
Military experts outline challenges of U.S. seizure of Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 8%1%
On July 15, 2026, military analysts highlighted the high risks and troop requirements to capture and hold Kharg Island against Iranian missile and drone attacks, tempering market optimism about a successful U.S. takeover.
U.S. fires strikes on Iranian command centers and oil tanker near Kharg Island
August 31 rises to 6%2%
On July 15, U.S. Central Command struck Iranian military sites and disabled an oil tanker heading to Kharg Island, intensifying military pressure but not resulting in a change of control over the island.
U.S. concludes sixth consecutive night of strikes in the region with no change in Kharg Island control
August 31 dips to 6%3%
By mid-July 2026, U.S. military operations continued targeting Iranian military sites but Kharg Island remained under Iranian control with oil export operations ongoing, reinforcing market consensus against a change in control.
No evidence of change in control over Kharg Island; market probabilities remain low
By mid-July 2026, no credible reports or official statements indicated a loss of Iranian control over Kharg Island, leading to market prices settling at low probabilities for a change in control by the resolution dates.
U.S. military strikes Iranian command centers and missile sites near Kharg Island
August 31 rises to 7%3%
On July 15, U.S. forces conducted strikes on Iranian military targets near Kharg Island, including coastal defense and missile sites, as part of ongoing conflict escalation. Despite these strikes, no control transfer of Kharg Island occurred.
U.S. conducts second airstrike on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
August 31 drops to 5%8%
The U.S. launched another airstrike targeting Iranian military infrastructure on Kharg Island, again sparing oil export facilities. This reinforced Iranian control and lowered market confidence in a change of control.
U.S. military disables oil tanker near Kharg Island enforcing blockade
September 30 surges to 33%25%
On July 15, 2026, U.S. Central Command disabled an oil tanker attempting to evade the U.S. blockade near Kharg Island, demonstrating continued military pressure but not a change in control, maintaining market uncertainty.
U.S. conducts multiple airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
In mid-July, the U.S. continued airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil infrastructure, maintaining pressure but not changing control, which kept market probabilities low.
Experts skeptical US will seize Kharg Island despite military capability
Analysts and experts expressed skepticism about the US attempting to seize Kharg Island due to the high risks and strong Iranian defenses, reinforcing market sentiment that control would remain with Iran.
U.S. strikes Iranian command centers and disables oil tanker heading to Kharg Island
CENTCOM reported strikes on Iranian command centers and disabled an oil tanker attempting to reach Kharg Island, underscoring U.S. efforts to restrict Iranian maritime activity but no change in control of the island itself.
President Trump says he would invade Kharg Island if Iran is sufficiently degraded
August 31 dips to 9%1%
On July 14, 2026, President Trump stated he would order a ground invasion of Kharg Island if U.S. forces degraded Iran enough. This statement increased market attention but did not correspond with any actual change in control.
President Trump holds meeting to discuss possible invasion of Kharg Island
On July 14, 2026, President Trump convened a meeting at the Situation Room to discuss military operations against Iran, including a potential invasion of Kharg Island, which maintained market uncertainty but no immediate change in control.
U.S. military launches nearly 200 airstrikes in the region but no ground invasion of Kharg Island
July 31 dips to 0%2%
Despite repeated threats and heavy airstrikes in the region, no U.S. ground invasion or occupation of Kharg Island occurred. Military experts warned that holding the island would be costly and risky, and Iran maintained control with reinforced defenses.
CENTCOM confirms no US strike on Kharg Island, lowering control change expectations
July 31 dips to 1%1%
CENTCOM officially stated that no US strike occurred on Kharg Island, contradicting earlier reports and reducing market expectations for a change in control by July 31 or August 31. This confirmation contributed to the market's decline in probability for the 'Yes' outcome.
Analysis warns Kharg Island invasion would be a costly military disaster
August 31 rises to 6%1%
On July 13, analysis highlighted the significant military challenges and risks of a U.S. invasion of Kharg Island, including strong Iranian defenses and potential for costly sustained conflict, dampening market expectations for a successful seizure.
Experts warn of high risks in any U.S. invasion of Kharg Island
Analysis published on July 13 highlighted the strong Iranian defenses on Kharg Island and the potential military and economic costs of a U.S. invasion, dampening market expectations for a successful takeover.
Analysts warn seizing Kharg Island would pose significant military and political risks
August 31 dips to 3%1%
Military analysts and experts cautioned that an amphibious assault on Kharg Island would involve disproportionate risks and challenges, reducing the likelihood of a successful U.S. takeover. This analysis contributed to market skepticism about a control change.
US forces did not strike Kharg Island: CENTCOM denies US strike
August 31 dips to 4%1%
CENTCOM officially denied any US strike on Kharg Island, contradicting earlier claims and lowering market expectations for a change in control. This reduced the probability of the island no longer being under Iranian control.
Satellite imagery shows increased oil tanker activity at Kharg Island amid US sanctions
Despite US sanctions and threats, satellite images revealed three large oil tankers docked simultaneously at Kharg Island, indicating continued Iranian control and operation of the island's oil facilities, reducing likelihood of control loss.
U.S. military conducts new wave of strikes on Iran as ceasefire falters, mentions possible Kharg Island takeover
On July 9, 2026, the U.S. launched another wave of strikes on Iranian military targets amid a faltering ceasefire. The U.S. military stated forces 'may take over' Kharg Island, implying a potential ground operation, but no confirmed seizure occurred, and Iran maintained control.
Trump Declares Interim Ceasefire Over and Renews Threats to Kharg Island
August 31 rises to 6%4%
Speaking at the NATO summit, President Trump declared the interim ceasefire with Iran over and renewed threats against Kharg Island following regional tanker attacks, causing a temporary peak in the market.
President Trump announces U.S. attacked Kharg Island and threatens to seize it
On July 8, 2026, President Trump announced that the U.S. had attacked Kharg Island overnight in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and reiterated threats to seize the island. Despite the announcement and renewed threats, no ground invasion or confirmed change of control occurred, keeping market probabilities low.
Trump says US ‘may take over Kharg Island’ amid rising Gulf tensions
August 31 rises to 5%1%
Trump confirmed that Kharg Island was attacked and reiterated threats to seize it, keeping the island a focal point in the conflict. This statement caused a slight uptick in market interest but did not significantly raise probabilities of control change.
Trump reiterates possibility of U.S. seizure of Kharg Island amid rising tensions
August 31 rises to 7%1%
On July 8, Trump renewed threats to seize Kharg Island, emphasizing its strategic importance and the ongoing U.S. military actions in the region, which briefly increased market speculation about a potential takeover.
Trump renews threats to seize Kharg Island amid rising Gulf tensions
August 31 rises to 6%2%
On July 8, 2026, Trump reiterated threats to seize Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's oil exports, briefly increasing market attention but without any change in control, keeping probabilities low.
Iran warns US troops would not survive Kharg Island operation after Trump signals possible strikes
Following renewed US threats to seize Kharg Island, Iranian officials warned that any US invasion would be met with fierce resistance and that American troops would not return alive. This underscored Iran's determination to maintain control, dampening market expectations of a change in control.
Trump renews threat to seize Kharg Island amid rising Gulf tensions
On July 8, 2026, President Trump again suggested that the US might take over Kharg Island, escalating tensions further. Despite these threats, no military action resulted in a change of control, keeping market probabilities low.
President Trump threatens to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure including Kharg Island
August 31 jumps to 7%5%
On July 8, 2026, President Trump renewed threats to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure, including Kharg Island, escalating tensions but without any reported change in control of the island.
Massive explosions erupt near Iranian port in wave of US strikes on Kharg Island
August 31 rises to 5%1%
On July 8, 2026, massive explosions and flames erupted near Kharg Island in a wave of high-velocity retaliatory U.S. strikes, escalating tensions but with no reports of a change in control of the island.
Trump reiterates threat to seize Kharg Island amid ongoing strikes
August 31 dips to 3%3%
On July 8, Trump confirmed attacks on Kharg Island and repeated threats to seize the island, keeping the issue in focus and causing minor market fluctuations. However, no actual change in control was reported.
Trump renews threats to seize Kharg Island amid rising Gulf tensions
On July 8, 2026, Trump renewed threats to seize Kharg Island after declaring an interim ceasefire with Iran 'over' and warning of more strikes. Despite the rhetoric, no ground operation occurred, and Iranian control remained intact, keeping market probabilities low.
US President Trump confirms US attacked Kharg Island overnight
July 31 rises to 4%1%
Trump confirmed that US forces attacked Kharg Island overnight in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, but refrained from bombing oil infrastructure, maintaining Iranian control over the island and limiting market optimism for a change in control.
Trump suggests reimposing blockade and seizing Kharg Island amid ceasefire collapse
July 31 rises to 4%1%
President Trump on July 8 suggested reinstating a naval blockade of Iran and taking over Kharg Island, signaling a potential escalation. However, no actual seizure occurred, and the market remained skeptical, reflected in low prices.
President Trump confirms US attacks on Kharg Island and renews threat to seize it
August 31 rises to 6%3%
On July 8, 2026, President Trump announced overnight US attacks on Kharg Island in retaliation for Iranian actions and reiterated threats to take control of the island. Despite the rhetoric, no credible reports indicated a change in control, maintaining market skepticism.
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Renews Threats to Seize Kharg Island
August 31 rises to 6%4%
Speaking at the NATO summit, Trump declared the interim ceasefire with Iran over and warned of fresh strikes, re-upping threats that the U.S. could take over Kharg Island.
President Trump renews threat to seize Kharg Island amid rising Gulf tensions
On July 8, 2026, President Trump reiterated threats to seize Kharg Island, escalating tensions. However, no actual change in control occurred, and Iran continued to operate the island's oil export facilities, keeping market probabilities low.
Trump Confirms Kharg Island Attack and Renews Seizure Threats
August 31 rises to 4%1%
Speaking at the NATO summit, President Trump confirmed the overnight strikes on Kharg Island and repeated threats that the U.S. could take over the island, though actual control remained unchanged.
Retired U.S. military officials warn seizing Kharg Island would endanger troops and escalate conflict
August 31 dips to 3%1%
Military experts cautioned that capturing Kharg Island would be difficult to hold and might not force Iran to capitulate, increasing perceived risks and reducing market confidence in a U.S. seizure before the resolution date.
US launches new strikes on Iran including Kharg Island, reimposes oil sanctions
July 31 rises to 3%1%
On July 7, the US conducted powerful strikes against Iranian targets including Kharg Island and reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales, escalating the conflict but still without any indication of US forces establishing control over Kharg Island, keeping market probabilities low.
US launches strikes on Iranian military targets including Kharg Island amid renewed tensions
August 31 rises to 4%2%
The US conducted airstrikes on military targets on Kharg Island, sparing oil infrastructure, signaling continued military pressure but no change in control. Iranian state media reported explosions but confirmed Iranian control remained intact.
US Launches Powerful Strikes Against Iran Targets Including Kharg Island
July 31 rises to 2%1%
The U.S. launched a series of powerful strikes targeting military sites on Kharg Island and other locations in response to attacks on commercial ships, demonstrating military pressure but not a change in territorial control.
U.S. launches powerful strikes on Kharg Island and reimposes oil sanctions on Iran
August 31 rises to 6%3%
On July 7, 2026, the U.S. conducted a series of powerful strikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island and reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Despite the strikes, Iranian state media reported continued operations on the island, indicating no loss of control.
US launches powerful strikes on Kharg Island and reimposes oil sanctions on Iran
On July 7, 2026, the US conducted a series of powerful strikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island and reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Despite the strikes, Iranian state media reported continued operations on the island, indicating no loss of control.
Iranian state media reports explosions on Kharg Island amid US strikes
Iranian state media reported explosions on Kharg Island following US military strikes, highlighting ongoing conflict but no indication of loss of Iranian control. This maintained market uncertainty and low probability of control change.
Explosions in Damascus highlight regional tensions amid Kharg Island conflict
August 31 dips to 2%1%
Explosions in Syria near Damascus during a meeting of regional leaders underscored the broader regional instability linked to the Iran conflict, including the strategic importance of Kharg Island. This context maintained market caution about a change in control.
U.S. launches strikes on Kharg Island and reimposes oil sanctions on Iran
August 31 rises to 6%3%
The U.S. conducted powerful strikes targeting Iranian military sites on Kharg Island and reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales, escalating conflict but without any indication of U.S. forces establishing control over the island, keeping market probabilities low.
Explosions reported on Kharg Island amid U.S. strikes and sanctions reimposition
Iranian state media reported several blasts on Kharg Island during a series of U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and reimposition of oil sanctions. Despite the attacks, Iran confirmed continued operation of oil exports and control over the island, dampening market expectations of a change in control.
U.S. Central Command launches strikes on Iranian military targets in response to attacks on commercial vessels
August 31 dips to 3%1%
On July 7, 2026, CENTCOM struck about 80 Iranian military targets following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these strikes, Iran maintained control over Kharg Island, sustaining market expectations of no change in control.
US launches strikes on Kharg Island and other Iranian targets amid renewed tensions
August 31 rises to 6%2%
On July 7, 2026, the US conducted a series of powerful strikes on Kharg Island and other Iranian locations, with Iranian state media reporting explosions but no loss of control. The strikes increased tensions but did not alter sovereignty, keeping market probabilities low.
No confirmed change in control of Kharg Island by U.S. forces
August 31 dips to 2%1%
As of early July 2026, no credible reports or official statements confirmed that Kharg Island was no longer under Iranian control, leading to the market's resolution towards 'No' for the U.S. takeover by the resolution dates.
No official or credible reports of Kharg Island losing Iranian control by July 5
As of July 5, 2026, no official statements or credible media reports confirmed that Kharg Island was no longer under Iranian control, indicating the market's low probability of such an event before the resolution date.
No evidence of change in control over Kharg Island despite ongoing conflict
August 31 dips to 2%2%
Satellite imagery and official reports confirmed that Iran maintained primary governmental and military control over Kharg Island, with no indication of occupation or control by another state, leading to market probabilities near zero for loss of control by the resolution date.
Iranian oil exports from Kharg Island reach highest level in nearly two months
August 31 dips to 3%1%
Satellite and shipping data showed increased Iranian crude exports from Kharg Island, indicating uninterrupted Iranian control and operational status, further reducing market chances of a US takeover.
US-Iran indirect talks continue amid stand-down and ceasefire extension
August 31 dips to 2%2%
As of early July, indirect talks between the US and Iran continued with implementation steps underway, including arrangements for humanitarian aid and financial mechanisms. The stand-down and diplomatic progress reduced the likelihood of military escalation and change of control over Kharg Island before the resolution dates.
VLCCs dock at Kharg Island, confirming ongoing Iranian oil exports
August 31 dips to 3%1%
Satellite images confirmed three VLCCs docked at Kharg’s Sea Island terminal, showing continued large‑scale oil export activity under Iranian authority, cementing the market’s perception that control remained with Iran.
Iran reinforces defenses on Kharg Island amid U.S. threats
August 31 dips to 3%1%
Iran reportedly deployed additional military personnel and air defenses to Kharg Island in response to U.S. threats, making a U.S. invasion more difficult and contributing to the market's low probability of a change in control.
US and Iran hold separate meetings in Qatar amid high tensions over Strait of Hormuz
August 31 dips to 3%1%
Diplomatic talks on July 1 between US and Iranian officials in Qatar indicated ongoing negotiations but no military change on Kharg Island, supporting the view that Iran retained control.
Trump expresses doubt about U.S. appetite for seizing Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 3%1%
President Trump publicly stated uncertainty about whether the American public and military have the appetite for a ground invasion to seize Kharg Island, signaling a reduced likelihood of such an operation and pushing market prices lower.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island with extra air‑defences and troops
Iran announced that additional air‑defence systems and troops had been deployed to Kharg Island, signalling reinforced Iranian control and discouraging any immediate U.S. seizure plans.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island with additional troops and air defenses
August 31 drops to 4%5%
Iran moved additional military personnel, deployed air-defense systems, and laid traps on Kharg Island, strengthening its defenses and reducing the likelihood of a U.S. seizure. This development lowered market confidence in a loss of Iranian control.
U.S. military disables oil tanker heading for Kharg Island violating blockade
August 31 rises to 4%1%
On June 30, U.S. Central Command disabled the Botswana-flagged tanker M/T Lexie as it attempted to sail to Kharg Island in violation of the U.S. naval blockade. This enforcement action underscored U.S. efforts to restrict Iranian maritime activity but did not indicate a change in control of the island itself.
Iran strengthens military presence on Kharg Island, reducing U.S. seizure chances
August 31 dips to 9%3%
Iran reinforced Kharg Island with additional troops, air defenses, and minefields, signaling strong control and complicating any U.S. attempt to seize the island. This military buildup lowered market expectations for a U.S. takeover by the resolution date.
U.S. conducts multiple airstrikes on military targets on Kharg Island, sparing oil infrastructure
June 30 drops to 9%5%
The U.S. launched several airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites on Kharg Island but deliberately avoided oil export facilities. These strikes demonstrated military pressure but did not change Iranian control, reinforcing market skepticism about a loss of control by the resolution date.
US military maintains blockade and targets Iranian tankers near Kharg Island
The US continued enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and disabled tankers heading for Kharg Island, but no ground invasion or control change occurred, sustaining Iranian control over the island.
Satellite imagery shows prolonged halt in oil shipments at Kharg Island amid US blockade
Satellite images revealed no ocean-going oil tankers at Kharg Island for several days, indicating operational pressure due to the US naval blockade but no loss of Iranian control, reinforcing market skepticism about a change in control.
U.S. maintains blockade and airstrikes but no ground invasion of Kharg Island
August 31 drops to 3%6%
Despite ongoing military pressure including airstrikes and naval blockade, no U.S. ground troops were deployed to seize Kharg Island. Iran retained control, which further lowered market probabilities for a change in control by the resolution dates.
Massive oil spill detected near Kharg Island amid ongoing conflict
August 31 dips to 7%2%
Satellite imagery revealed a large oil spill near Kharg Island, raising environmental concerns but confirming the island remained under Iranian administrative control. This incident underscored ongoing tensions without indicating a change in control.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island defenses with troops, air defenses, and mines amid U.S. invasion threats
August 31 dips to 2%2%
Reports on June 30 revealed Iran had significantly bolstered military personnel, deployed surface-to-air missile systems, and laid mines on Kharg Island to deter a U.S. ground assault. This increased the difficulty of any U.S. seizure and caused market probabilities to drop sharply.
US disables oil tanker heading to Kharg Island enforcing naval blockade
US Central Command announced disabling an unladen oil tanker heading to Kharg Island after it ignored warnings, demonstrating enforcement of the US blockade but not affecting Iranian control of the island, contributing to market skepticism about a change in control.
No confirmed change in control of Kharg Island despite ongoing conflict and airstrikes
August 31 dips to 2%2%
Despite ongoing US-Iran tensions, airstrikes, and military posturing, Iranian governmental and military control over Kharg Island remained intact with no ground operation or occupation, leading to market resolution favoring 'No'.
US plans to seize Kharg Island face increased Iranian defenses and expert warnings
August 31 plunges to 13%26%
Reports of US military planning to seize Kharg Island were met with intelligence of Iran reinforcing the island's defenses and warnings of significant US casualties, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence for a change in control.
Reports of Iran reinforcing Kharg Island defenses amid US threat of ground operation
August 31 drops to 4%9%
Intelligence reports revealed that Iran had moved additional military personnel, deployed air defenses including MANPADs, and laid traps such as mines on Kharg Island, significantly increasing the risks and operational challenges for any potential US ground seizure. This reinforced Iranian control and lowered market confidence in a loss of control by the resolution dates.
US military plans to seize Kharg Island shelved due to high operational risks
August 31 drops to 2%7%
Senior Pentagon and administration officials confirmed that plans to capture Kharg Island had been considered but repeatedly shelved because the operation was deemed too risky, especially given the island's proximity to the Iranian mainland and strong defenses. This diminished expectations of a near-term change in control.
No credible reports of Kharg Island changing control despite ongoing conflict
August 31 drops to 3%6%
Despite ongoing military actions, airstrikes, and threats, no official or credible reports confirmed that Iran lost control of Kharg Island. Iran maintained military and governmental control, and the market settled at a low probability reflecting a 'No' resolution expectation.
Senator Lindsey Graham backtracks on calls for U.S. to seize Kharg Island
July 31 dips to 2%4%
After previously urging President Trump to seize Kharg Island, Senator Lindsey Graham reversed his position on Fox News, signaling a lack of political and military appetite for a risky ground occupation. This tempered market expectations for a U.S. takeover.
U.S. launches multiple airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
August 31 drops to 4%9%
On June 30, 2026, the U.S. conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil infrastructure. These strikes reinforced Iranian control and led to a decline in market confidence for a change in control.
Satellite imagery shows Kharg Island oil terminals empty but under Iranian control
August 31 dips to 5%4%
Satellite images in late June 2026 revealed empty oil loading terminals at Kharg Island with tanker queues offshore, indicating operational disruption but continued Iranian control. This reinforced market skepticism about a change in control.
US-Iran Interim Agreement and Shipping Normalization Lower Conflict Intensity
A mid-June US-Iran interim agreement led to signs of shipping normalization near Kharg Island by late June, indicating reduced conflict intensity and confirming that Iran retained full control of the island.
Satellite imagery shows tanker buildup and ongoing Iranian control of Kharg Island
Satellite images in late June 2026 showed tanker congestion and active Iranian military patrols around Kharg Island, indicating continued Iranian operational control despite the U.S. naval blockade and airstrikes. This reinforced market skepticism about a change in control.
Reports emerge of Iran reinforcing Kharg Island defenses against possible US ground operation
August 31 drops to 7%6%
US intelligence revealed Iran had moved additional military personnel, deployed air defenses, and laid traps on Kharg Island, increasing risks for a US seizure and lowering market confidence in loss of Iranian control.
U.S. conducts multiple airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, sparing oil infrastructure
August 31 drops to 4%5%
Throughout June, the U.S. launched precision airstrikes targeting over 50 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island while deliberately avoiding oil infrastructure, maintaining Iranian control and reducing market expectations for a change in control.
No credible reports confirm Kharg Island lost by Iran despite ongoing conflict
August 31 dips to 7%2%
Despite ongoing military actions, airstrikes, and threats, no official or credible reports confirmed that Iran lost control of Kharg Island. Iran maintained military and governmental control, leading the market to settle at low probabilities for a change in control by the resolution date.
U.S. conducts multiple airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
July 31 drops to 3%6%
The U.S. launched precision airstrikes targeting over 50 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil infrastructure. This demonstrated military pressure but did not change control, lowering market expectations for loss of control.
U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports including Kharg Island begins
August 31 drops to 9%7%
Starting April 13, 2026, the U.S. imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports including Kharg Island, halting oil exports but Iran maintained military and administrative control, reducing market expectations of a loss of control.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island defenses amid US threat of ground operation
July 31 plunges to 28%17%
Iran increased military personnel, air defenses, and laid traps on Kharg Island in anticipation of a possible US ground assault, bolstering Iranian control and reducing market confidence in a US seizure, causing further price decline.
U.S. Air Force bombs over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island
On March 13, 2026, the U.S. Air Force conducted a large bombing raid targeting Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil infrastructure. This heightened tensions and speculation about a potential U.S. seizure but did not result in a change of control, causing market fluctuations.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island amid US threat of ground operation
August 31 drops to 9%5%
Iran increased military personnel, air defenses, and laid traps on Kharg Island in anticipation of a possible U.S. ground assault. This bolstered Iranian control and reduced market confidence in a U.S. seizure, causing further price decline.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on over 50 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 11%1%
In March 2026, CENTCOM destroyed more than 90 military sites on Kharg Island, including storage facilities for IRGC naval mines and anti-ship missiles, while deliberately avoiding the oil infrastructure. This showed military capability but did not change control.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island with additional military personnel and air defenses
August 31 dips to 11%1%
In response to U.S. threats, Iran deployed additional troops, air defenses, and naval mines to Kharg Island, significantly increasing the risks of a successful foreign takeover and causing market confidence in a loss of Iranian control to decline.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island defenses with troops and mines to counter U.S. threats
August 31 dips to 11%2%
In response to U.S. threats of seizure, Iran deployed additional military personnel, air defenses, and naval mines to Kharg Island, making a rapid foreign takeover highly risky and unlikely, which lowered market expectations for a loss of Iranian control.
Trump calls off planned strikes on Kharg Island amid ceasefire talks
July 31 drops to 2%6%
On June 30, 2026, President Trump canceled planned air strikes on Kharg Island, citing progress in ceasefire negotiations, which reduced the likelihood of a U.S. invasion or seizure and caused market probabilities to decline sharply.
Signs of gradual Gulf shipping normalization near Kharg Island
By late June, shipping activity near Kharg Island showed signs of normalization following a mid-June US-Iran interim agreement, indicating reduced conflict intensity and no change in control of the island, which further lowered market probabilities.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enforces control over Strait of Hormuz near Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 3%1%
On June 25, the IRGC ordered vessels to turn back near Kharg Island, demonstrating continued Iranian military control over the island's vicinity and maritime routes, which reinforced market skepticism about a change in control.
IRGC Enforces Maritime Control Near Kharg Island
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps ordered vessels to turn back in the southern corridor near Kharg Island, demonstrating active and unchallenged Iranian military control over the island's vicinity.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enforces control over Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island area
On June 25, the IRGC ordered vessels to turn back near Kharg Island, reinforcing Iranian control over maritime routes and the island's vicinity, indicating no loss of control to foreign forces and maintaining market skepticism about a U.S. takeover.
Kharg Island resumes crude oil loading after temporary disruption
August 31 dips to 3%1%
By late June 2026, reports indicated Kharg Island's crude terminals resumed multi-berth loading with Iranian exports reaching near two-month highs, confirming ongoing Iranian control and operational status of the island's oil facilities.
U.S. fighter jet disables tanker heading for Kharg Island
August 31 rises to 4%1%
U.S. forces disabled an unladen tanker bound for Kharg Island with a Hellfire missile, reinforcing the blockade but confirming that no ground force was attempting to seize the island, further lowering market odds.
Kharg Island terminals empty amid Iranian control and shipping disruptions
August 31 dips to 4%1%
By late June, Kharg Island's crude terminals were reported empty with tankers waiting offshore, indicating operational disruptions but no loss of Iranian control, reinforcing market skepticism about a U.S. takeover.
Iran reinforces defenses on Kharg Island amid ongoing conflict
August 31 dips to 4%1%
Iran reportedly increased military personnel and air defenses on Kharg Island, further complicating any potential U.S. seizure and contributing to the market's declining probability of a takeover.
Iranian military reinforces Kharg Island defenses amid US threats
August 31 dips to 4%1%
Reports indicated Iran increased military personnel and air defense systems on Kharg Island, preparing for potential US attacks or invasion, reinforcing Iranian control and deterring US seizure attempts.
US launches strikes on Iranian targets including Kharg Island amid escalating conflict
On June 24, 2026, the US military conducted strikes on multiple Iranian targets, including Kharg Island, targeting military installations while sparing oil infrastructure. Despite the attacks, no reports indicated a change in control, maintaining market skepticism about a takeover.
Trump calls off planned strikes on Kharg Island amid negotiation progress
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Following his aggressive statements, Trump expressed reluctance to put boots on the ground and canceled planned air strikes, reducing market expectations for a U.S. seizure of Kharg Island and causing a decline in the probability of control change.
Satellite imagery confirms resumption of crude oil loading at Kharg Island
August 31 rises to 6%2%
Between June 16 and 23, 2026, satellite and maritime data showed renewed tanker activity and crude oil loading at Kharg Island, indicating continued Iranian operational control and export activity despite prior military strikes and blockades.
Iran Resumes Large-Scale Crude Oil Loading at Kharg Island Terminal
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Satellite imagery confirmed resumed tanker loading operations at Kharg Island, indicating continued Iranian control and operational status of the oil export hub despite ongoing conflict.
Ceasefire talks continue amid ongoing threats over Kharg Island
Despite ongoing threats and rhetoric about Kharg Island, peace negotiations and ceasefire discussions persisted, maintaining uncertainty and low market confidence in a change of control by the resolution dates.
U.S. Treasury Authorizes Iranian Oil Sales Through August
July 31 dips to 2%1%
Following the June 17 MOU, the U.S. Treasury Department formally authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days. This concrete policy step confirmed the easing of military and economic pressure, cementing Iranian operational control over its primary oil hub at Kharg Island.
Analysts cite March 13 U.S. raid on Kharg Island as proof of limited impact
August 31 dips to 4%1%
A U.S. Air Force bombing raid hit over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island (the March 13 strike) was referenced in a new analysis, reminding markets that no ground seizure occurred; the “Yes” price fell to 4 %.
Iran Resumes Crude Loading From Kharg Island After US Lifts Blockade
Following the signing of an interim peace deal, the U.S. Navy lifted its blockade, allowing Iran to quickly resume oil exports and solidify its continued control over the island.
Satellite imagery confirms intense Iranian oil tanker activity at Kharg Island
Satellite and maritime tracking data showed multiple tankers docked and preparing to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, confirming Iran's maintained control and active use of Kharg Island's oil export facilities, further lowering market probabilities for a U.S. takeover.
Satellite imagery confirms intense Iranian oil tanker activity at Kharg Island
Satellite imagery and maritime tracking on June 21, 2026, showed intense Iranian oil tanker activity at Kharg Island, with multiple tankers docked and others preparing to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This confirmed Iran's maintained control and active use of the island's oil export facilities, further reducing the likelihood of a change in control by the resolution date.
Satellite imagery shows intense Iranian tanker activity at Kharg Island
On June 21, satellite and maritime tracking data showed intense activity by Iranian oil tankers at Kharg Island, with multiple vessels loading crude and preparing to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This confirmed ongoing Iranian operational control of the island's oil export facilities.
Kharg Island crude oil loading operations resume after disruption
August 31 rises to 5%1%
Satellite imagery confirmed tankers loading crude oil at Kharg Island, indicating Iran maintained operational control despite earlier disruptions and U.S. naval blockade, reinforcing market skepticism about a change in control.
Trump renews threats to seize Kharg Island amid rising Gulf tensions
Trump reiterated threats to take Kharg Island and control Iran's oil markets, increasing geopolitical risk but without any military action to change control, leading to minor market fluctuations.
Satellite imagery shows resumption of large-scale crude export operations at Kharg Island
Between June 16-23, 2026, satellite and maritime data confirmed that Iran resumed large-scale crude oil loading at Kharg Island, indicating continued Iranian operational control and undermining market expectations of a control change.
Iran resumes crude oil loading at Kharg Island after U.S. naval blockade lifted
August 31 rises to 4%4%
Following the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, Iran resumed loading crude oil at Kharg Island, demonstrating continued operational control and reducing market expectations of a loss of control.
Iran resumes loading crude oil from Kharg Island after US naval blockade lifted
August 31 drops to 4%5%
Following the lifting of the US Navy blockade on Iranian ports, Iran resumed loading crude oil at Kharg Island export terminal on June 20, 2026, with multiple very large crude carriers docked. This demonstrated Iran's continued operational control over the island and its oil export infrastructure.
Iran Resumes Crude Oil Loadings at Kharg Island as US Blockade Ends
June 30 dips to 0%1%
Following the interim peace agreement, tankers docked at Kharg Island to resume oil exports, confirming that Iran maintained full administrative and operational control of the hub.
Satellite imagery shows resumed Iranian oil tanker activity at Kharg Island
Satellite and maritime tracking data on June 20 showed intense Iranian oil tanker activity at Kharg Island, indicating Iran maintained control over the island and its oil export operations, contradicting any claims of loss of control.
Iran resumes oil exports from Kharg Island after US blockade ends
Iran restarted crude oil loading at Kharg Island following the lifting of the US Navy blockade, indicating continued Iranian control over the island and its oil infrastructure, further diminishing chances of a control change.
Iran resumes crude oil loading at Kharg Island after US blockade lifted
June 30 drops to 0%5%
On June 20, 2026, Iran resumed loading crude oil at Kharg Island following the lifting of a US naval blockade. Satellite and ship tracking data confirmed multiple large crude carriers docked at the island, demonstrating Iran's continued operational control and ability to export oil, which diminished market expectations of a loss of control by the resolution date.
Iran resumes large-scale crude exports from Kharg Island terminal
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Between June 16-23, 2026, satellite imagery and maritime data confirmed Iran resumed significant crude oil loading operations at Kharg Island, signaling continued Iranian control and operational capability, which dampened market expectations of a U.S. takeover.
Iran resumes oil loading at Kharg Island after US blockade lifted
June 30 dips to 0%3%
On June 20, 2026, Iran resumed loading crude oil at Kharg Island following the lifting of a US naval blockade. Satellite images showed multiple very large crude carriers docked at the terminal, confirming Iran's continued operational control and ability to export oil. This development further diminished the market's expectation of a loss of Iranian control by the resolution date.
Satellite imagery confirms resumption of crude oil loading at Kharg Island terminal
Satellite and maritime data showed Iran resumed large-scale crude export operations at Kharg Island after a six-week suspension, indicating continued Iranian operational control and oil exports despite conflict and blockades.
Satellite imagery shows intense Iranian oil tanker activity at Kharg Island
Satellite and maritime tracking data on June 20, 2026, showed intense Iranian oil tanker activity at Kharg Island, confirming Iran's operational control of the island's oil export terminal. This evidence further reduced market expectations of a U.S. takeover by the resolution date.
Iran resumes crude oil loading at Kharg Island after U.S. naval blockade lifted
July 31 dips to 1%1%
Following the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, Iran resumed loading crude oil at Kharg Island, with multiple large crude carriers docked. This demonstrated Iran's continued operational control and reduced market expectations of a loss of control.
Third tanker stopped by U.S. forces en route to Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 5%1%
CENTCOM confirmed a third oil‑tanker had been stopped and disabled by U.S. forces while attempting to reach Kharg Island, underscoring the blockade’s effectiveness but not indicating a change in territorial control; the market stayed at 5 %.
Iran resumes oil loading at Kharg Island after U.S. naval blockade lifted
Following the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, Iran resumed loading crude oil at Kharg Island, indicating continued operational control and economic activity despite prior disruptions. This reduced market expectations of a loss of control.
Iran resumes oil loadings at Kharg Island after U.S. blockade lifted
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Iran resumed loading crude at Kharg Island after a six‑week U.S. naval blockade was lifted, showing that the island remained fully operational under Iranian authority. This concrete evidence of Iranian control pushed the market down to its lowest levels.
Iran strengthens defenses on Kharg Island amid US threats
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Iran deployed additional military personnel, air defenses, and laid traps around Kharg Island in preparation for a possible US operation, signaling strong Iranian control and complicating any US attempt to seize the island. This bolstered confidence in Iranian control.
Continued absence of US or allied seizure of Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Despite ongoing conflict and strategic interest, no US or allied forces seized Kharg Island, and Iran maintained primary governmental and military control.
Reports confirm Kharg Island remains under Iranian control despite US threats
June 30 dips to 0%1%
Multiple credible sources confirmed that despite US military presence and threats, Iran continues to exercise primary governmental and military control over Kharg Island. No occupation or transfer of control was reported, leading to market prices dropping to near zero.
Pentagon moves 1,000 troops to Gulf amid Kharg Island seizure plans
Reports emerged that the Pentagon was moving roughly 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne to the region for a possible Kharg Island operation. The speculation further lowered market confidence to 6 %.
US military plans to seize Kharg Island considered too risky and shelved
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Reports on June 18 revealed that US military plans to capture Kharg Island had been drawn up but continuously shelved due to the high risks involved, including strong Iranian defenses and logistical challenges. This reinforced market expectations that control would not change by the resolution dates.
US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Reached to End War and Lift Blockade
Pakistan announced a diplomatic breakthrough where Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US agreed to lift its naval blockade, ending immediate threats of a US takeover of Kharg Island.
Trump expresses doubts about US appetite for seizing Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Trump publicly stated uncertainty about whether America has the stomach for a ground invasion of Kharg Island, signaling hesitation and reducing market expectations for a near-term seizure.
Iran confirms Kharg Island operations normal despite US attacks
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Iranian parliamentary officials stated on June 17, 2026, that life and oil export operations on Kharg Island continued normally despite previous U.S. airstrikes, signaling Iran's maintained control and resilience, which dampened market expectations for a loss of control.
US and Iran sign memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and reopen Strait of Hormuz
August 31 dips to 9%4%
On June 17, 2026, the US and Iran electronically signed a memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire for 60 days, including provisions for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US to lift its naval blockade, enabling Iran to resume oil exports from Kharg Island. This agreement indicated continued Iranian control of the island and reduced expectations of a change in control.
U.S. and Iran Sign Memorandum of Understanding for 60-Day Truce
August 31 dips to 4%2%
The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day truce, which included reopening the Strait of Hormuz and allowing IAEA inspectors back into Iran. This formal diplomatic agreement effectively shelved any immediate plans for a U.S. military seizure of Kharg Island.
Trump softens stance on Kharg Island seizure in Fox News interview
July 31 dips to 2%2%
On June 16, Trump indicated his preference to take Kharg Island but expressed uncertainty about America's willingness to sustain such an operation, acknowledging the risks involved. This tempered rhetoric contributed to a decline in market optimism for a 'Yes' outcome by July 31.
Satellite imagery confirms resumed crude loading at Kharg Island
Between June 16 and 23, 2026, satellite imagery and maritime tracking data showed Iran resumed large-scale crude oil export operations from Kharg Island after a suspension, indicating continued Iranian operational control and reducing market expectations of a loss of control.
Iran resumes large-scale crude export operations from Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Satellite imagery and maritime tracking data between June 16-23, 2026 showed Iran resumed large-scale crude exports from Kharg Island after a six-week suspension, indicating continued Iranian operational control of the island's oil infrastructure.
Satellite imagery confirms resumption of crude loading at Kharg Island terminal
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Between June 16-23, 2026, satellite imagery and maritime tracking data showed Iran resumed large-scale crude export operations from Kharg Island, indicating continued Iranian control and operational use of the island's oil facilities.
Kharg Island Crude Exports Resume After Six-Week Suspension
Satellite imagery and maritime data confirmed that Iran resumed large-scale crude oil exports from Kharg Island, indicating continued Iranian control and operational capacity, which reduced market expectations of a control change by the resolution date.
Iran warns attack on Kharg Island would reshape global energy markets
August 31 dips to 6%1%
On June 16, 2026, IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri warned that any strike on Kharg Island's oil infrastructure would have severe global energy consequences, reinforcing Iran's resolve to defend the island and deterring further U.S. attacks on oil facilities.
U.S. missile disables tanker attempting to breach Kharg Island blockade
CENTCOM announced that a Hellfire missile disabled an unladen oil tanker that ignored the U.S. blockade near Kharg Island, reinforcing the blockade but not changing on‑ground control, keeping the market at 7 %.
U.S. military maintains blockade and limited strikes but no ground invasion
August 31 dips to 5%2%
Despite ongoing military pressure, the U.S. refrained from launching a ground invasion or seizing Kharg Island, leading to a gradual decline in market confidence for a change in control by the resolution dates.
Memorandum of understanding signed to end Iran conflict and reopen Strait of Hormuz
August 31 dips to 4%1%
On June 14, mediators announced a memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iran presidents on June 17, aiming to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This agreement implied no change in control of Kharg Island but reduced conflict risks, further lowering market probabilities.
Mediators Announce Memorandum of Understanding to End Iran Conflict
August 31 dips to 6%2%
Mediators announced a memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iranian presidents to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, implying no change in control of Kharg Island and further lowering market probabilities.
US military strikes on Kharg Island target military facilities, avoid oil infrastructure
August 31 dips to 6%1%
US forces conducted strikes on military targets on Kharg Island but deliberately avoided damaging oil infrastructure, indicating a limited military approach rather than full seizure, which kept market probabilities low.
Pentagon says no immediate plan to seize Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 4%1%
A Pentagon spokesperson reiterated that the U.S. had no current operational plan to occupy Kharg, reinforcing the view that control remained with Iran and helping keep the “Yes” price low (4 % on 2026‑06‑16).
US and Iran sign memorandum of understanding to reopen Strait of Hormuz
August 31 dips to 4%2%
A ceasefire agreement was signed aiming to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reducing immediate military escalation risks around Kharg Island and lowering market probabilities of a change in control.
US and Iran Reach Agreement to End War and Reopen Strait of Hormuz
July 31 dips to 2%4%
President Trump announced a completed ceasefire agreement with Iran on June 14, which included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the U.S. naval blockade, permanently shelving any plans to seize Kharg Island.
Iranian officials report no casualties and ongoing operations on Kharg Island post US strikes
Following the US airstrikes, Iranian officials reported no casualties among military personnel or civilians and confirmed that oil companies on Kharg Island continued operations without interruption, reinforcing Iran's maintained control over the island.
U.S. military maintains blockade and enforces strikes on Iranian oil shipments near Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 6%1%
The U.S. military continued to enforce its blockade of Iranian ports and fired missiles to disable tankers attempting to transport Iranian oil, maintaining pressure but not seizing Kharg Island, which kept market probabilities low for a change in control.
U.S. Air Force conducts large bombing raid on Kharg Island targeting Iranian military sites
On March 13, 2026, the U.S. Air Force bombed over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil and gas infrastructure. This maintained Iranian control over critical oil export facilities and limited market expectations of a change in control.
U.S. conducts second airstrike on Kharg Island military targets
July 31 dips to 6%4%
U.S. forces launched a second wave of airstrikes on Kharg Island’s military installations but deliberately avoided oil facilities. The lack of a ground assault reaffirmed Iranian control, driving the market probability down further.
U.S. Air Force bombs Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, sparing oil infrastructure
On March 13, 2026, the U.S. conducted a large bombing raid targeting over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island but deliberately avoided damaging oil and gas infrastructure, maintaining Iranian control over critical oil export facilities and limiting expectations of a change in control.
Reports confirm Iran's increased fortifications on Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 3%1%
Iran has reinforced Kharg Island with additional personnel, air defense systems, and mines, making any attempt to seize the island more difficult and risky for US forces. This further reduced market confidence in a change of control by the resolution dates.
US launches airstrikes on Kharg Island but avoids oil infrastructure
August 31 dips to 7%2%
US forces struck military targets on Kharg Island but avoided damaging oil facilities, indicating a limited military approach rather than an attempt to seize control. This limited action reduced the market's perceived chance of a change in control.
US Air Force bombs over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, sparing oil infrastructure
August 31 dips to 7%2%
On March 13, 2026, the US conducted a large bombing raid targeting Iranian military sites on Kharg Island but deliberately avoided damaging oil and gas infrastructure. This military action raised tensions but did not change control, causing initial market fluctuations.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 4%1%
The U.S. launched precision airstrikes targeting over 50 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil infrastructure. This demonstrated military pressure but did not change control, lowering market odds for a U.S. takeover.
US military strikes obliterate Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
US forces conducted strikes on Kharg Island targeting military assets, but spared oil infrastructure, signaling a limited military approach that did not indicate imminent US control of the island, tempering market optimism.
US airstrikes destroy Iranian military sites on Kharg Island but spare oil infrastructure
On March 13, 2026, the US conducted large-scale airstrikes on Kharg Island targeting over 90 Iranian military sites, destroying military infrastructure but deliberately avoiding damage to oil export facilities, maintaining Iranian control over the island's key economic assets.
US conducts airstrikes on military targets on Kharg Island, sparing oil infrastructure
August 31 drops to 7%5%
The U.S. military launched airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations on Kharg Island but deliberately avoided damaging oil export facilities, signaling a limited military approach and maintaining Iranian control over the island's critical infrastructure.
Trump intensifies rhetoric but acknowledges risks of seizing Kharg Island
July 31 dips to 7%2%
Following his threat, Trump acknowledged the military difficulties of capturing Kharg Island, which is heavily fortified and close to the Iranian mainland, limiting the likelihood of a successful seizure. This tempered market optimism, contributing to price declines.
Negotiators reach breakthrough on Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire, Kharg Island stays in Iranian hands
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Reports of a high‑level cease‑fire negotiation between the U.S. and Iran were published, indicating that any settlement would keep Iran in control of Kharg. This further lowered market belief in a loss of control, moving the price to 4 % on 2026‑06‑19.
Trump calls off planned strikes on Iran after Kharg Island threat
August 31 drops to 6%7%
Hours after the June 11 threat, Trump announced the strikes were cancelled because a diplomatic breakthrough had been reached. The de‑escalation removed the seizure risk, pushing the “Yes” price sharply down to 6 % on 2026‑06‑13.
U.S. conducts second airstrike on Iranian military targets at Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 12%1%
U.S. Central Command confirmed a second wave of precision airstrikes on more than 50 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, sparing oil facilities. The strikes lowered confidence that the U.S. could seize the island, dropping the “Yes” price to 12 %.
Trump Confirms Kharg Island Seizure Abandoned If Iran Peace Agreement Signed
August 31 dips to 9%3%
Trump and military analysts confirmed that any plans to seize Kharg Island would be permanently shelved if the pending peace agreement is finalized, driving down the odds of a change in control across all contract horizons.
Military Experts Warn Seizing Kharg Island Poses Extreme Risks to U.S. Troops
August 31 dips to 6%2%
Former military leaders and analysts publicly detailed the high operational risks and potential for a prolonged war if the U.S. attempted to occupy Kharg Island, further dampening market expectations of an invasion.
Experts warn seizing Kharg Island would risk U.S. lives and extend war
August 31 dips to 5%1%
Military experts cautioned that capturing and holding Kharg Island would be difficult and dangerous, likely extending the conflict and causing casualties, which reduced market confidence in a quick U.S. victory.
Military experts highlight high risks and troop requirements to capture Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 9%3%
Reports and military experts detailed that seizing Kharg Island would require at least 1,200 troops and put many American lives at risk, reinforcing market expectations that a ground invasion was highly unlikely.
Trump vows to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil markets
August 31 jumps to 13%5%
Former US President Trump publicly threatened to take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure, escalating tensions and briefly increasing market speculation about a possible change in control.
Iran denies any finalized peace deal despite U.S. claims
Following U.S. announcements of a peace settlement including Kharg Island, Iranian officials denied any agreement had been reached, maintaining control over the island. This reinforced the market's view that actual control had not changed.
Trump backs off Kharg Island threat, cites diplomatic progress
July 31 dips to 10%3%
Hours after the June 11 threat, Trump posted a softer message, walking back the immediate strike and suggesting the U.S. was pursuing diplomatic progress, which caused the market to slide back.
Iran warns of repercussions if U.S. attempts to seize Kharg Island
Iran's Foreign Ministry issued a warning that any attempt by the U.S. to seize Kharg Island would face strong local resistance, reinforcing Iran's control and reducing market confidence in a U.S. takeover.
U.S. Threats to Seize Kharg Island Continue Amid Stalled Peace Talks
June 30 drops to 4%5%
On June 12, 2026, despite ceasefire talks, President Trump reiterated threats to seize Kharg Island and intensify military pressure on Iran. These statements maintained market uncertainty but no actual control change occurred, keeping probabilities low.
Kharg Island remains under tight Iranian military control amid war tensions
August 31 dips to 6%2%
Reports highlighted Kharg Island's strategic importance and Iran's continued strong military presence, reinforcing the view that the island was unlikely to be lost to US forces soon, contributing to a decline in market prices.
Military experts warn of high risks and troop requirements to seize Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 8%4%
Reports and interviews with former military leaders highlighted that seizing the heavily fortified island would require at least 1,200 troops and carry immense risks, further dampening expectations of a U.S. invasion.
Experts warn seizure of Kharg Island would be risky and unlikely soon
June 30 drops to 0%8%
Military experts and former commanders highlighted the high risks and logistical challenges of seizing Kharg Island, emphasizing that such an operation would likely escalate the war and is not imminent. This reinforced market skepticism about a change in control by the resolution date.
Trump Expresses Doubt Over American Appetite for Ground Occupation of Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 9%3%
In a phone call with Fox News, Trump softened his stance on seizing the island, admitting he was unsure if the American public had the stomach for a risky ground occupation, further depressing the 'Yes' odds.
U.S. launches airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
June 30 plunges to 13%17%
Following Trump's threats, the U.S. conducted multiple airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil infrastructure. These strikes reinforced Iranian control and led to a decline in market confidence for a change in control.
US continues strikes but no ground operation on Kharg Island
Despite ongoing US airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, no ground invasion or occupation occurred. Iran maintained control, reinforced defenses, and the market reflected low probabilities for loss of control by resolution date.
Military Experts Warn Seizing Kharg Island Poses Extreme Risks to U.S. Troops
July 31 drops to 2%5%
Former military leaders and analysts publicly detailed the high operational risks and potential for a prolonged war if the U.S. attempted to occupy Kharg Island, further dampening market expectations of an invasion.
Trump publicly threatens to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil infrastructure
July 31 dips to 6%2%
On June 11, 2026, former US President Donald Trump announced intentions to take Kharg Island and control Iranian oil infrastructure, escalating tensions and briefly increasing market probabilities for a change in control. However, this threat did not materialize into immediate military action, and Iran reinforced defenses on the island.
Trump announces intent to seize Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure
President Donald Trump publicly declared plans to take control of Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure points in Iran, raising market expectations of a change in control. This announcement initially increased market probabilities for the island no longer being under Iranian control.
US calls off planned strikes on Kharg Island after threat escalation
August 31 dips to 4%3%
Following President Trump's threat to strike Iran 'very hard,' the U.S. later called off planned military strikes on Kharg Island, suggesting a de-escalation and reducing the likelihood of a control change in the near term.
Trump threatens to seize Iran's Kharg Island and control its oil markets
August 31 jumps to 13%5%
President Trump announced intentions to take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure in the near future, raising market speculation about a possible U.S. invasion. This threat increased market prices for Kharg Island control change but also highlighted the risks involved.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island with additional military personnel and air defenses
July 31 drops to 2%6%
In response to U.S. threats, Iran deployed more troops, air defenses, and naval mines to Kharg Island, significantly strengthening its defenses and reducing the likelihood of a rapid U.S. seizure. This bolstered Iranian control and caused a sharp decline in market confidence for a change in control.
Trump walks back immediate strike threat on Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Later on June 11, Trump softened his stance, indicating a preference rather than an immediate plan to seize Kharg Island, which tempered market expectations and contributed to price stabilization at lower levels.
U.S. military strikes on Kharg Island target Iranian military sites
August 31 drops to 7%6%
Prior to the ceasefire, U.S. forces conducted strikes on Kharg Island targeting Iranian military installations while largely sparing oil infrastructure, maintaining pressure but not altering control of the island.
Trump vows U.S. will seize Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure
July 31 dips to 5%3%
Former President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. would 'take Kharg Island' and 'assume total control' of Iran's oil and gas markets, escalating tensions over the strategic oil export hub.
Trump publicly threatens to seize Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure
August 31 dips to 12%1%
On June 11, 2026, former President Donald Trump announced via social media and interviews that the U.S. would take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure, signaling a potential military operation. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market speculation about the possibility of the U.S. seizing the island.
U.S. military strikes Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
Prior to the ceasefire in April, the U.S. bombed military targets on Kharg Island, including air defenses and naval bases, but left oil infrastructure largely intact. This demonstrated U.S. capability to strike the island but did not indicate a change in control.
U.S. military strikes Kharg Island targeting Iranian military sites
In March and April 2026, prior to the analysis window but referenced in June, U.S. Central Command conducted strikes on Kharg Island's military targets, avoiding oil infrastructure. This ongoing military pressure kept the island in focus but did not change control, maintaining market uncertainty.
Former President Trump publicly threatens to seize Kharg Island and intensify strikes on Iran
On June 11, 2026, Donald Trump announced plans to take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure, escalating tensions and causing market uncertainty. However, he also expressed doubts about American public support for a ground invasion, tempering expectations for a rapid change in control.
President Trump announces intention to seize Kharg Island in future
August 31 drops to 7%6%
Trump publicly stated intentions to take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure but canceled strikes, maintaining uncertainty without actual loss of Iranian control, contributing to price decline.
President Trump cancels planned strikes on Kharg Island amid ceasefire talks
July 31 drops to 2%6%
President Trump announced cancellation of planned U.S. strikes on Kharg Island citing progress in ceasefire negotiations, reducing market expectations of a U.S. seizure. Iran denied any finalized deal, and control remained contested but unchanged.
President Trump reiterates threat to seize Kharg Island amid Iran conflict
President Trump publicly threatened to take control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, escalating tensions and raising market speculation about a possible U.S. military operation. This increased market interest but did not correspond to immediate changes on the ground.
Trump Threatens to Seize Iran's Kharg Island and Take Total Control of Oil Markets
June 30 jumps to 8%5%
President Donald Trump publicly threatened to seize Iran's strategic Kharg Island oil hub, causing a temporary spike in market attention and volatility regarding a potential change in control.
Trump walks back invasion threat and announces ceasefire breakthrough
June 30 dips to 4%4%
Hours after his initial threats, Trump softened his stance on Fox News and announced he had canceled the planned strikes because a peace settlement was close, causing the probability of a U.S. takeover to plunge.
Trump Abruptly Cancels Planned Strikes on Iran, Claiming Peace Deal is Close
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Just hours after threatening a major escalation, President Trump reversed course, calling off planned strikes and claiming a breakthrough in peace negotiations, which significantly lowered the likelihood of a ground invasion.
Trump vows to seize Kharg Island, promises “very hard” strike
July 31 jumps to 13%5%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States would “take Kharg Island” and seize Iran’s oil facilities, reviving fears of a U.S. ground operation and pushing the market probability up sharply.
Iran Fortifies Kharg Island Defenses in Response to U.S. Seizure Threats
July 31 dips to 7%1%
Reports emerged that Iran deployed additional troops, air defenses, and naval mines to Kharg Island, making a rapid U.S. military takeover highly risky and less likely to succeed.
Iran Denies Trump's Claims of a Confirmed Peace Deal
July 31 dips to 5%3%
Iranian officials and state media quickly denied President Trump's claims of a finalized preliminary peace agreement, maintaining that no memorandum of understanding had been approved.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island with air defenses and mines in response to U.S. threats
June 30 drops to 3%5%
Following Trump's public threats, reports emerged that Iran deployed additional troops, surface-to-air missiles, and naval mines to Kharg Island, making a rapid U.S. seizure highly difficult and costly.
Trump calls off planned strikes on Iran and walks back Kharg Island seizure threat
June 30 drops to 1%7%
Later on June 11, President Trump softened his stance, stating he did not want to put boots on the ground and cancelled planned airstrikes, citing progress in ceasefire negotiations with Tehran.
Trump walks back Kharg Island seizure threat, questioning American appetite for ground troops
July 31 dips to 7%1%
Hours after his initial threat, Trump softened his stance during a Fox News interview, admitting he was unsure if the U.S. had the 'stomach' for a ground operation on the island.
Trump Cancels Strikes and Announces Breakthrough Ceasefire Settlement with Iran
July 31 dips to 6%3%
Hours after his initial threats, President Trump reversed course, canceling the planned strikes and declaring that a peace settlement had been reached, which sharply reduced the likelihood of any US seizure of the island.
Trump Threatens Future Seizure of Kharg Island but Cancels Scheduled Strikes
June 30 rises to 4%1%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would take control of Kharg Island in the 'not too distant future' to control Iran's oil markets, but hours later announced he had canceled scheduled military strikes. This confirmed that no immediate ground invasion was occurring, keeping the probability of a June 30 change of control very low.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island amid U.S. threats to seize it
July 31 jumps to 8%5%
In response to U.S. threats, Iran deployed additional troops, air defenses, and naval mines to Kharg Island, reinforcing its control and reducing the likelihood of a successful U.S. seizure by June 30.
Trump Abruptly Cancels Planned Iran Strikes and Claims Peace Deal is Near
August 31 drops to 7%5%
Just hours after threatening a ground invasion, President Trump reversed course, canceling scheduled strikes and claiming a breakthrough in peace negotiations, which caused the probability of a U.S. seizure of the island to plummet.
Trump Reverses Threat, Cancels Strikes on Iran Citing Peace Deal Breakthrough
June 30 dips to 4%4%
Just hours after threatening an invasion, Trump announced he was calling off the planned strikes because a 'great settlement' had been reached, taking the seizure of Kharg Island off the table.
Former President Trump signals intent to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil infrastructure
July 31 jumps to 8%5%
Donald Trump publicly stated that the U.S. might take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure in the near future, escalating tensions and prompting Iran to fortify the island. This announcement increased market speculation about a possible change in control.
Pentagon officials confirm plans to seize Kharg Island are shelved due to high risk
August 31 dips to 9%4%
Senior Pentagon and administration officials revealed that plans to capture Kharg Island have been considered but repeatedly shelved because the operation is too risky. This diminished expectations of a near-term change in control, impacting the market's outlook for August 31.
Trump walks back threat to strike critical Iranian oil hub
June 30 drops to 0%7%
Following initial threats to seize Kharg Island, Trump clarified he doubted America had 'the stomach' for such an action, signaling a potential pause in aggressive military plans.
Trump threatens ground invasion to seize Iran's Kharg Island oil hub
August 31 dips to 10%3%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would hit Iran 'VERY HARD TONIGHT' and would be 'taking Kharg Island' in the near future, raising fears of an imminent ground invasion.
Trump walks back Kharg Island seizure threat, questioning American appetite for invasion
Hours after his initial threat, Trump expressed hesitation during a phone interview, stating he was unsure if the U.S. had the stomach for a ground operation to seize the island.
Trump Softens Stance on Fox News, Questioning U.S. Appetite for Kharg Seizure
July 31 dips to 7%2%
Shortly after his initial threats, Trump softened his rhetoric during a Fox News appearance, admitting he was unsure if the American public had the stomach for a risky ground operation.
Trump Cancels Strikes and Claims Preliminary Peace Settlement Reached with Iran
August 31 drops to 7%5%
Just hours after threatening an invasion, President Trump reversed course, claiming he canceled the planned strikes on Kharg Island because a peace settlement had been approved by all parties.
Trump vows to seize Kharg Island and strike 'VERY HARD TONIGHT'
June 30 dips to 1%4%
President Trump announced a plan to seize Kharg Island, a vital oil export hub for Iran, citing a Venezuela-style takeover strategy. This marked a significant escalation in rhetoric, driving initial market price movement.
Trump cancels planned strikes and signals possible ceasefire progress
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Later on June 11, Trump called off planned strikes on Iran and suggested progress toward a ceasefire, which tempered market expectations about an imminent US seizure of Kharg Island, contributing to a price decline.
No reports of Kharg Island losing Iranian control amid ongoing tensions
As of mid-June 2026, no credible reports or official statements indicated that Kharg Island had fallen out of Iranian control, despite ongoing regional tensions and speculation about possible US or allied operations.
Analysts warn US seizure of Kharg Island would pose risks to troops
August 31 dips to 7%2%
Military experts noted that while US forces could seize Kharg Island quickly, the operation would be risky and could prolong conflict, contributing to market skepticism about a swift change in control.
Trump signals intent to seize Kharg Island amid escalating US-Iran tensions
August 31 dips to 9%4%
On June 11, 2026, former President Donald Trump publicly threatened to take control of Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, raising market speculation about a possible US ground operation. This announcement initially increased market probabilities for a change in control.
Trump calls off planned Thursday evening strikes on Iran's Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 0%3%
Despite threats to seize Kharg Island, Trump canceled planned strikes on June 11, highlighting the operational risks and complexities of capturing the island. This contributed to market price declines as the likelihood of a successful seizure diminished.
Trump signals possible imminent US military strikes on Iran
July 31 dips to 7%1%
Trump warned of a major US attack on Iran, including strikes on military and economic infrastructure, heightening fears of escalation but without immediate change in control of Kharg Island.
Trump Backs Down From Strikes and Claims Iran Peace Settlement Is Near
August 31 drops to 6%7%
Just hours after threatening a ground invasion, President Trump called off planned strikes and claimed a breakthrough peace deal had been reached, causing 'Yes' probabilities to plunge.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island amid US seizure threats
August 31 dips to 9%3%
In response to US threats, Iran deployed additional troops, defensive installations, and naval mines to Kharg Island, strengthening its defenses and reducing the likelihood of a rapid US takeover before the resolution date.
Trump announces US will seize Kharg Island and Iranian oil facilities
August 31 dips to 12%1%
President Trump publicly declared that the US would take control of Kharg Island and other key Iranian oil infrastructure in the near future, escalating tensions and raising the possibility of military action. This announcement initially increased market speculation about a change in control.
Trump Reverses Course and Cancels Planned Military Strikes on Iran
June 30 drops to 3%5%
Just hours after his initial threats, President Trump announced he had called off the planned strikes, citing a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations and signaling a shift back to diplomacy.
Trump signals possible US seizure of Kharg Island but cancels planned strikes
June 30 rises to 4%1%
On June 11, 2026, former President Trump publicly threatened to take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure but subsequently canceled planned air strikes, citing progress in ceasefire negotiations. This raised market uncertainty but no actual military action or control change occurred.
Trump Vows US Will Seize Kharg Island to Control Iran's Oil Exports
June 30 jumps to 8%5%
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the US military would be taking Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure points in the near future, causing a brief spike in market expectations of a control change.
Trump Abruptly Cancels Planned Strikes on Iran, Citing Peace Settlement Progress
August 31 dips to 9%4%
Just hours after threatening a ground invasion, President Trump reversed course, canceling planned strikes and claiming a peace deal was close, which caused the probability of a control change to plunge.
President Trump publicly threatens to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil exports
June 30 jumps to 44%12%
On June 11, 2026, President Trump declared intentions to take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure, likening the strategy to the U.S. approach in Venezuela. This escalated market attention and temporarily increased the probability of a change in control, though no actual seizure occurred.
US military states capability to take Kharg Island but no current plans
US military officials confirmed the capability to take Kharg Island at any time but emphasized no current plans to deploy troops, reflecting ongoing strategic considerations without actual occupation. This maintained market skepticism about a change in control by the resolution date.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island with additional military personnel and air defenses
August 31 dips to 11%2%
Reports emerged that Iran was reinforcing Kharg Island's defenses in anticipation of a possible U.S. ground operation, increasing the risks and reducing market confidence in a loss of Iranian control.
Trump Abruptly Calls Off Planned Strikes on Iran, Touting Peace Progress
July 31 dips to 6%2%
Just hours after threatening a major escalation, President Trump reversed course, canceling planned strikes and claiming that a peace settlement had been approved by all parties.
Iran Fortifies Kharg Island Defenses with Troops and Mines to Counter U.S. Threats
June 30 drops to 3%5%
In response to U.S. threats of seizure, Iran deployed additional military personnel, air defenses, and naval mines to Kharg Island, making a rapid foreign takeover highly risky and unlikely.
Trump Backs Down on Seizure and Cancels Planned Strikes on Iran
June 30 dips to 1%3%
Hours after his initial threats, President Trump softened his stance on Fox News, called off the planned evening strikes, and announced that a peace settlement was close, causing the probability of a near-term loss of Iranian control to plunge.
President Trump threatens to seize Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure
June 30 jumps to 8%5%
President Trump announced plans to take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil and gas markets in the near future, escalating tensions and briefly increasing market probabilities for a loss of Iranian control. However, this threat was followed by a cancellation of planned strikes and signals of ceasefire negotiations.
Iran maintains control and reinforces defenses on Kharg Island
July 31 drops to 2%6%
Iranian forces continued to control Kharg Island, reinforcing its defenses with additional missile systems and troops, and Iranian officials denied any agreement or loss of control. This maintained the status quo and contributed to the market's decline in probability of loss of Iranian control.
Trump threatens to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil infrastructure
June 30 rises to 12%3%
On June 11, 2026, President Donald Trump publicly declared via social media that the US would take Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure in the near future, signaling a potential military operation to control Iran's oil exports. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market speculation about the possibility of the US seizing the island.
Trump expresses doubts about U.S. appetite for seizing Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 32%12%
Later on June 11, 2026, during a Fox News interview, Trump expressed uncertainty about whether America has the stomach for a ground invasion of Kharg Island, tempering earlier threats and contributing to market volatility and price declines.
President Trump Announces U.S. Plans to Seize Kharg Island and Intensify Strikes
June 30 dips to 9%1%
On June 11, 2026, President Trump publicly threatened to take control of Kharg Island and conduct further military strikes against Iran, escalating tensions and causing a drop in market prices for the June 30 outcome. However, he also indicated uncertainty about U.S. public support for such an operation.
Pentagon officials confirm plans to seize Kharg Island shelved due to high risk
June 30 dips to 4%1%
On June 11, 2026, senior Pentagon and administration officials revealed that plans to capture Kharg Island had been considered but repeatedly shelved because the operation was deemed too risky. This reinforced market doubts about a successful seizure by the resolution date.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island defenses amid U.S. invasion threats
June 30 drops to 3%9%
In response to U.S. threats, Iran deployed additional surface-to-air missile systems and laid mines on Kharg Island, signaling strong intent to retain control. This military buildup reduced the likelihood of a successful U.S. seizure, reflected in market price drops.
Trump signals preference to take Kharg Island but doubts U.S. appetite for invasion
June 30 drops to 3%9%
In a Fox News interview, Trump stated that taking Kharg Island has always been his preference but expressed uncertainty about whether America has the appetite for such an operation. This tempered market enthusiasm for a takeover, contributing to price declines.
Trump announces U.S. will take Kharg Island and control Iranian oil infrastructure
President Trump declared on social media that the U.S. would assume total control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil and gas industries in the near future, escalating market speculation about a potential U.S. ground invasion. This announcement caused a spike in market interest but did not confirm actual control change.
Trump threatens to seize Iran's Kharg Island and strike 'VERY HARD TONIGHT'
June 24 drops to 0%5%
On June 11, President Trump publicly vowed to seize Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure, promising a major military strike that night. This threat significantly raised market speculation about a potential change in control, causing initial price increases for the June 24 and June 30 outcomes.
Trump calls off planned Thursday evening strikes on Iran's Kharg Island
June 24 drops to 0%5%
Later on June 11, Trump canceled the planned strikes on Kharg Island, citing the high risks of a ground operation and the potential for heavy casualties. This decision led to a sharp decline in market prices as the likelihood of the U.S. seizing the island diminished.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island amid US invasion threats
June 30 dips to 4%3%
Iran deployed additional troops, missile systems, and naval mines to Kharg Island in response to U.S. threats, reinforcing its defenses and complicating any potential U.S. seizure. This development supported market expectations that control would remain with Iran by the June 30 deadline.
Trump walks back threat to strike Kharg Island amid negotiation progress
July 31 dips to 2%4%
Following his aggressive statements, Trump appeared on Fox News expressing reluctance to put boots on the ground and canceled planned air strikes, which reduced market expectations for a U.S. seizure of Kharg Island.
Trump threatens to take Kharg Island and strike Iran ‘very hard tonight’
August 31 rises to 13%1%
Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would “take Kharg Island” and hit Iran “very hard tonight.” The explicit call‑for‑seizure spiked speculation that Iran could lose control, sending the “Yes” price to its peak of 13 % on 2026‑06‑11.
Trump signals possible future US seizure of Kharg Island but cancels immediate strikes
June 30 dips to 3%4%
On June 11, 2026, President Trump publicly stated intentions to take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure in the future but canceled planned strikes citing ceasefire progress. This maintained market uncertainty but did not indicate actual loss of Iranian control, contributing to a price decline.
Iran denies any finalized peace deal and reaffirms control over Kharg Island
Following Trump's announcement of a peace deal and strike cancellation, Iranian officials denied any finalized agreement and reaffirmed their readiness to defend Kharg Island. This maintained the status quo of Iranian control and contributed to market skepticism about a U.S. takeover before the resolution date.
President Trump vows to seize Kharg Island and strike 'VERY HARD TONIGHT'
August 31 dips to 9%4%
On June 11, 2026, President Donald Trump publicly threatened to seize Kharg Island and strike Iran very hard that night, escalating tensions and briefly increasing market uncertainty. However, this threat did not materialize into an actual military takeover, and Trump later walked back the threat. The announcement caused a temporary spike in market prices for the island no longer being under Iranian control, which then declined as no action followed.
US military plans to seize Kharg Island shelved due to high risk
July 31 dips to 5%3%
Following President Trump's threat, senior Pentagon officials and administration sources revealed that plans to capture Kharg Island had been drawn up but continuously shelved because the operation was considered too risky. This reduced the likelihood of a US takeover, contributing to a decline in market prices for the 'Yes' outcome.
US military plans to seize Kharg Island considered too risky and shelved
June 30 dips to 0%3%
Reports emerged that although plans to capture Kharg Island existed, they were continuously shelved due to the high risk and difficulty of maintaining a sustainable presence on the island. This reinforced market skepticism about the feasibility of a U.S. takeover, pushing prices down further.
Trump walks back immediate strike plans on Kharg Island amid negotiation progress
July 31 dips to 2%4%
Following aggressive statements, President Trump canceled planned air strikes on Kharg Island and suggested progress in talks to extend a fragile ceasefire, reducing market expectations for a U.S. seizure of the island.
Military analysts warn US control of Kharg Island would carry high troop risk amid Iran tensions
August 31 drops to 3%9%
Military analysts cautioned that seizing and holding Kharg Island would expose U.S. forces to significant operational and retaliatory risks, making a rapid foreign takeover highly risky and unlikely, which tempered market optimism.
Trump threatens to take Kharg Island but calls off planned strikes amid ceasefire talks
June 30 dips to 3%3%
Former President Trump publicly threatened to seize Kharg Island and assume control of Iran's oil markets but later canceled planned military strikes, signaling a possible breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations. This raised market uncertainty but did not indicate actual change in control.
Trump Backs Down From Kharg Island Invasion and Cancels Planned Airstrikes
June 30 dips to 4%4%
Hours after his initial threat, Trump softened his stance on Fox News, citing concerns over troop casualties and progress in ceasefire negotiations, which caused the probability of a near-term takeover to plunge.
Trump publicly vows to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil industry
June 30 dips to 4%1%
On June 11, 2026, former U.S. President Trump announced intentions to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil and gas markets, signaling a potential escalation. However, experts and officials noted the operation's high risk and the island's heavy Iranian defenses, leading to market skepticism and price decline.
Trump vows to take Kharg Island but cancels planned strikes amid peace talks
June 30 drops to 4%5%
President Trump threatened to seize Kharg Island and strike Iran very hard but later canceled the planned attacks, citing progress in negotiations. This indicated a shift from military escalation to diplomacy, reducing the likelihood of U.S. control over the island.
Iran deploys additional troops and naval defenses amid U.S. threat
June 30 dips to 4%4%
Iran responded to the U.S. threat by fortifying Kharg Island with troops, defensive installations, and naval mines, which reduced the likelihood of a rapid seizure and supported the 'No' outcome.
Trump cancels planned air strikes on Iran after ceasefire progress
June 30 dips to 4%4%
President Trump announced he was canceling the air strikes, citing progress in negotiations with Tehran, which reduced the immediate threat of U.S. military action and led to a price decline.
President Trump announces future plan to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil markets
June 30 drops to 2%6%
On June 11, President Trump publicly stated that the U.S. would take Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure points in the near future, aiming to assume total control of Iran's oil and gas markets. This announcement increased market attention but did not reflect an actual change in control.
U.S. military strikes on Kharg Island and Iran's military capabilities reported
June 30 dips to 2%1%
Reports on June 11 indicated that U.S. forces had conducted strikes on Kharg Island targeting Iranian military sites, with claims that Iran's navy and air defenses were largely neutralized. Despite this, no U.S. occupation or control was established, keeping the market probability low.
Trump calls off planned Thursday evening strikes on Iran's Kharg Island
July 31 drops to 2%6%
Later on June 11, Trump called off planned strikes on Kharg Island, signaling reluctance to launch a risky ground operation to seize the island. This tempered market expectations for a near-term change in control, contributing to further price declines.
Trump Threatens Imminent Seizure of Kharg Island to Take Control of Oil Markets
June 30 jumps to 8%5%
President Trump escalated rhetoric by declaring the U.S. would soon take Kharg Island and assume total control of Iran's oil and gas markets, causing a brief spike in the perceived likelihood of Iran losing control.
Trump Backs Down From Strikes, Signaling Ceasefire Breakthrough
June 30 dips to 4%4%
Just hours after threatening an invasion, Trump called off the planned strikes and announced that a peace settlement had been approved by all parties, causing the probability of a U.S. takeover to plummet.
Trump expresses doubt about U.S. public support for ground invasion of Kharg Island
August 31 plunges to 9%23%
Later on June 11, Trump softened his stance, expressing uncertainty about American appetite for a risky ground occupation, which contributed to market price declines and reduced expectations of a change in control.
Trump cancels planned strikes on Kharg Island amid ceasefire progress
June 30 dips to 4%4%
Hours after threatening to hit Iran very hard and seize Kharg Island, President Trump called off planned attacks citing progress in negotiations. This de-escalation reinforced market expectations that Iran would retain control of the island.
Experts warn taking Kharg Island would need 800‑1,000 troops and pose huge logistical risks
August 31 drops to 7%5%
Reuters published analysis that a U.S. seizure would require 800‑1,000 troops and extensive logistics, underscoring the operation’s difficulty and dampening market optimism; price slipped from 12 % to 7 % on 2026‑06‑13.
Trump tells Fox News his ‘preference’ is to take Kharg Island but doubts US appetite
August 31 rises to 5%1%
Trump’s appearance on Fox News later that day softened his tone, saying the U.S. “preference” is to take Kharg but acknowledging “America may not have the stomach.” The mixed messaging eased market tension, contributing to the decline to 5 % on 2026‑06‑20.
Trump signals US may seize Kharg Island, escalating invasion rhetoric
June 30 dips to 3%1%
On June 11, 2026, Trump publicly stated on social media and in interviews that the US would be taking Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure points in the not too distant future. This heightened market attention but did not correspond to actual control change, contributing to price volatility.
Trump calls off third night of Iran strikes after threatening Kharg Island
June 30 rises to 4%1%
Following his threats to take Kharg Island, Trump announced cancellation of further strikes and indicated possible ceasefire progress. This reduced the immediate likelihood of a US invasion and control change, reflected in market price declines.
Trump calls off Iran strikes after threatening Kharg Island
Following threats to strike Kharg Island, Trump signaled a possible breakthrough in ceasefire talks and called off further strikes. This reduced immediate military escalation fears but did not indicate any loss of Iranian control over the island.
President Trump threatens to hit Iran 'very hard' and seize Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 12%1%
On June 11, President Trump publicly threatened a severe military strike on Iran and declared intentions to take control of Kharg Island, a critical oil export hub. This escalated market fears but did not result in immediate action or change of control.
Trump calls off planned strikes on Kharg Island amid negotiation progress
August 31 drops to 7%5%
Hours after threatening to strike Kharg Island, President Trump canceled planned attacks citing progress in ceasefire negotiations, which reduced market expectations for a U.S. seizure of the island.
President Trump publicly states intent to seize Kharg Island
July 31 drops to 0%8%
Trump announced on social media that the U.S. would take Kharg Island and control Iran's oil markets, escalating pressure but no immediate military seizure followed. This caused a temporary spike in market probabilities.
Trump Cancels Scheduled Air Strikes Against Iran Citing Ceasefire Progress
August 31 dips to 7%2%
Hours after threatening a massive strike, President Trump announced he was cancelling the scheduled bombings due to high-level discussions with Iranian leadership, signaling a sudden de-escalation.
Trump expresses doubts about U.S. appetite for seizing Kharg Island
August 31 drops to 4%8%
Later on June 11, 2026, during a Fox News interview, Trump expressed uncertainty about whether America has the stomach for a ground invasion of Kharg Island, tempering earlier threats and contributing to market volatility and price declines.
Trump vows to seize Kharg Island and strike Iran 'VERY HARD TONIGHT'
August 31 dips to 12%1%
On June 11, 2026, US President Donald Trump publicly declared intentions to take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure, threatening a major escalation. This announcement initially raised the market's perceived chance of a change in control but was tempered by the high risks and Iran's strong defenses.
President Trump announces plans to seize Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure
On June 11, 2026, President Trump publicly declared via social media and interviews that the U.S. would take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure, signaling a potential military operation. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market speculation about the possibility of the U.S. seizing the island.
Trump declares U.S. will take Kharg Island in near‑future
President Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States would soon “take Kharg Island,” reviving public speculation about a full‑scale invasion and pushing the market’s “Yes” probability up to 13 %.
Trump cancels planned Iran strikes and signals progress in ceasefire talks
August 31 drops to 4%8%
Later on June 11, Trump reversed his threat to seize Kharg Island and called off planned strikes, citing a breakthrough in negotiations. This reduced market confidence in a U.S. seizure, causing a price drop.
Iran warns of repercussions if U.S. attempts to seize Kharg Island
July 31 dips to 2%1%
Iran's Foreign Ministry warned that any attempt by the U.S. to seize Kharg Island would face strong local resistance and retaliation, signaling a firm defensive posture that dampened market expectations of a U.S. takeover by July 31.
President Trump announces Kharg Island attack off the table amid ceasefire talks
President Donald Trump stated that a threatened U.S. military operation against Kharg Island was off the table for now as talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appeared close to producing a deal, reducing market expectations of a change in control.
Trump announces intent to seize Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure
On June 11, 2026, former President Trump publicly stated that the U.S. would take control of Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure points, escalating market expectations of a potential U.S. seizure. This announcement briefly increased market probabilities for loss of Iranian control.
Iran accuses UAE of allowing US missile launches against Kharg Island
On March 15, 2026, Iran's Foreign Minister accused the UAE of permitting US missile attacks on Kharg Island, escalating regional tensions but with no change in control of the island, underscoring Iran's defensive posture and control.
President Trump threatens to seize Kharg Island and strike Iran 'very hard tonight'
July 31 dips to 6%2%
On June 11, 2026, President Trump publicly declared intentions to take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure, escalating tensions and signaling potential military action. This caused a temporary increase in market attention but did not correspond with any actual military occupation or control change.
Trump cancels planned strikes on Iran, hints at ceasefire settlement
July 31 drops to 1%7%
Hours after threatening new strikes, Trump announced he had cancelled the attacks, suggesting a deal to end the war was close, which reduced market concern about Kharg Island being seized.
Trump Threatens US Will Seize Kharg Island and Assume Control of Iranian Oil
August 31 dips to 11%2%
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would take control of Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure in the near future, sparking fears of an imminent ground invasion.
Military experts warn seizing Kharg Island would pose high risks and likely extend the war
Analysts cautioned that while U.S. forces could seize Kharg Island quickly, holding it against Iranian missile and drone attacks would be difficult and could prolong the conflict, tempering market optimism about a change in control.
US President Trump calls off third night of Iran strikes after threatening Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 8%1%
Following threats to seize Kharg Island, Trump canceled planned airstrikes citing progress in negotiations with Iran, which reduced immediate military escalation fears and contributed to a price drop in the market.
U.S. military plans to seize Kharg Island shelved due to high risks
August 31 dips to 6%3%
Reports emerged that although the U.S. had plans to capture Kharg Island, the operation was continuously shelved because of the high risks to troops and logistical challenges, tempering market optimism about a U.S. takeover.
Trump Cancels Scheduled Strikes on Iran Citing Ceasefire Progress
July 31 dips to 6%2%
Hours after threatening military action, Trump announced the cancellation of scheduled airstrikes, signaling a potential breakthrough in high-level diplomatic negotiations with Tehran.
Trump Rules Out Ground Troops to Seize Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 6%3%
Trump tempered his threats by stating he does not want 'boots on the ground' in Iran, significantly lowering the probability of an actual physical occupation of the island.
U.S. military launches airstrikes on Kharg Island targeting Iranian military sites
August 31 dips to 6%3%
On June 11, 2026, U.S. forces conducted airstrikes on over 50 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil infrastructure. This demonstrated U.S. military pressure but did not change Iranian control, leading to a decline in market expectations for loss of control.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island amid US threats to seize it
December 31 jumps to 8%5%
In response to U.S. threats, Iran deployed additional troops, defensive installations, and naval mines to Kharg Island, reinforcing control and reducing the likelihood of a successful U.S. seizure by June 30, 2026.
President Trump signals intent to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil infrastructure
On June 11, 2026, President Trump publicly stated that the U.S. might take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure points, escalating tensions and briefly increasing market speculation about a change in control.
Trump Cancels Planned Strikes on Kharg Island Citing Ceasefire Progress
August 31 dips to 8%4%
Hours after threatening an invasion, President Trump called off planned airstrikes on Kharg Island, citing progress in negotiations with Tehran, which sharply reduced the perceived likelihood of a US takeover.
Trump announces plan to seize Kharg Island and intensify strikes on Iran
August 31 dips to 12%1%
On June 11, President Trump declared on social media that the US would take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure "in the not too distant future," threatening to hit Iran "very hard" that night. This announcement raised market expectations for a US seizure of the island, pushing prices for the 'Yes' outcome higher initially.
Trump calls off planned Thursday evening strikes on Iran, signals possible ceasefire progress
August 31 dips to 7%2%
After threatening heavy strikes and seizure of Kharg Island, Trump canceled the planned attacks and indicated a potential breakthrough in ceasefire talks, reducing immediate military escalation fears and influencing market prices downward for the island's loss of Iranian control.
US President Trump announces plan to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil exports
Trump declared on social media and in interviews that the US would take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil markets, escalating tensions and raising the possibility of a ground operation. This announcement initially increased market uncertainty about the island's control.
Trump calls off planned strikes on Kharg Island amid ceasefire talks
July 31 drops to 2%5%
On June 11, 2026, President Trump announced the cancellation of planned strikes on Kharg Island, citing progress in ceasefire negotiations. This de-escalation reduced the likelihood of a U.S. invasion or seizure of the island, causing market probabilities to decline further.
U.S. military conducts airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, sparing oil infrastructure
August 31 dips to 9%3%
U.S. forces launched airstrikes targeting over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately avoiding damage to oil export facilities. This reinforced Iranian control and lowered market confidence in a loss of control, contributing to price declines.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island defenses with troops, air defenses, and naval mines
August 31 drops to 3%9%
In response to U.S. threats of seizure, Iran deployed additional military personnel, air defenses including MANPADS, and naval mines to Kharg Island, making a rapid foreign takeover highly risky and unlikely. This buildup reduced market confidence in a U.S. seizure.
President Trump threatens to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil infrastructure
August 31 drops to 7%6%
On June 11, 2026, President Trump publicly declared via social media that the US would take Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure, signaling a potential military operation to control Iran's oil exports. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market speculation about the possibility of the US seizing the island.
Trump Threatens Imminent Seizure of Kharg Island to Take Control of Oil Markets
August 31 dips to 9%4%
President Donald Trump publicly threatened on Truth Social to take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure, causing a brief spike in the perceived likelihood of Iran losing control.
Trump Calls Off Planned Airstrikes on Kharg Island Amid Ceasefire Progress
July 31 dips to 2%4%
Hours after threatening to seize the island, President Trump reversed course and cancelled scheduled strikes, citing progress in high-level negotiations with Tehran, which tempered market expectations of a near-term takeover.
Senator Lindsey Graham endorses Trump's Kharg Island capture plan
August 31 jumps to 12%8%
On June 11, 2026, Senator Lindsey Graham publicly supported Trump's plan to capture Kharg Island, calling it the 'ultimate game changer' and emphasizing its strategic importance in the conflict with Iran.
Trump cancels planned airstrikes on Kharg Island amid ceasefire talks
July 31 drops to 0%5%
Following threats to seize Kharg Island, Trump reversed course and canceled planned airstrikes, citing progress in ceasefire negotiations, which reduced market expectations for a change in control.
Former President Trump signals U.S. may seize Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure
August 31 drops to 4%5%
On June 11, 2026, Trump publicly threatened to take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure, raising market uncertainty and briefly increasing probabilities for a change in control, though no military action followed.
Trump Backs Down from Ground Invasion and Cancels Scheduled Strikes on Iran
July 31 drops to 2%6%
Hours after his initial threats, Trump softened his stance on Fox News, stating he did not want to put boots on the ground, and subsequently cancelled scheduled airstrikes citing progress in ceasefire negotiations.
Trump expresses doubts about American appetite for ground occupation of Kharg Island
August 31 drops to 4%8%
Later on June 11, 2026, during a Fox News interview, Trump softened his stance, expressing uncertainty about whether the American public has the stomach for a risky ground invasion, which tempered earlier threats and caused market volatility and price declines.
Trump calls off planned airstrikes on Kharg Island amid peace talks
August 31 dips to 8%4%
Later on June 11, Trump canceled the threatened airstrikes on Kharg Island, citing ongoing discussions with Iran and progress toward extending the ceasefire. This reduced market expectations of a U.S. seizure of the island.
Trump threatens to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil exports
August 31 drops to 7%6%
On June 11, 2026, President Donald Trump publicly declared via social media his intention to take Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure, signaling a potential military operation. This announcement caused a temporary spike in market speculation about a U.S. seizure of the island.
Trump Threatens New Military Strikes and Seizure of Iran's Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 9%4%
President Donald Trump announced on social media that the US would hit Iran very hard and take control of Kharg Island in the near future, briefly keeping market expectations alive before a subsequent decline.
US military strikes Kharg Island targeting military sites but spares oil infrastructure
August 31 drops to 8%5%
US forces conducted strikes on Kharg Island in March and April 2026, destroying military targets but deliberately avoiding damage to the island's oil infrastructure. This military action increased tensions but did not change control of the island, contributing to market uncertainty and price decline.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island defenses amid US threat of seizure
August 31 drops to 8%5%
In response to US threats and military actions, Iran increased military personnel and air defenses on Kharg Island, including laying traps and deploying surface-to-air missiles, signaling preparedness to defend the island and complicating any US attempt to seize it.
President Trump Announces Intent to Seize Kharg Island and Oil Infrastructure
August 31 jumps to 8%5%
Trump publicly stated the U.S. would consider taking control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure, causing a temporary spike in market speculation despite no immediate action.
Donald Trump vows to seize Kharg Island and strike 'VERY HARD TONIGHT'
Former President Donald Trump publicly threatened to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil infrastructure, signaling a potential military operation. This announcement caused a temporary spike in market speculation about the possibility of the U.S. seizing the island.
President Trump signals possible future U.S. seizure of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure
August 31 jumps to 12%9%
Former President Donald Trump publicly announced intentions to take control of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure in the future, escalating tensions and briefly increasing market probabilities for a change in control. However, no immediate military action followed.
Iran warns of repercussions if US attempts to seize Kharg Island
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a warning that any attempts to seize Kharg Island would face strong repercussions from local residents and military forces, signaling Iran's firm stance and reducing market confidence in a U.S. takeover.
President Trump publicly threatens to seize Kharg Island and control Iran's oil infrastructure
August 31 jumps to 12%6%
On June 11, 2026, President Donald Trump declared intentions to take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil facilities, escalating tensions and briefly increasing market speculation about a U.S. seizure of the island.
CENTCOM denies U.S. strike on Kharg Island, lowering expectations of control change
July 31 dips to 5%3%
CENTCOM officially confirmed that no U.S. strike occurred on Kharg Island, contradicting earlier claims and reducing market expectations that control of the island would change. This official denial contributed to a decline in market prices for the 'Yes' outcome.
Former President Trump signals possible U.S. seizure of Kharg Island
August 31 drops to 8%5%
On June 11, 2026, Donald Trump publicly suggested that the U.S. might take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure, escalating tensions and briefly increasing market speculation about a change in control. However, no immediate military action followed, and Iran reinforced its defenses on the island.
Trump signals possible future US seizure of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure
August 31 drops to 7%6%
On June 11, 2026, former President Donald Trump publicly suggested that the US might take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure in the future, raising market speculation about a potential change in control. This caused a temporary increase in the market probability for Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control.
President Trump publicly declares intent to seize Kharg Island and Iranian oil infrastructure
August 31 jumps to 9%5%
On June 11, 2026, President Trump announced via social media and interviews that the U.S. would take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure in the near future, escalating tensions and briefly increasing market speculation about a potential U.S. ground invasion.
Trump walks back threat to seize Kharg Island amid peace deal talks
August 31 dips to 7%2%
Later on June 11, 2026, President Trump softened his stance, canceling planned strikes and suggesting progress in peace negotiations, which reduced market expectations for a U.S. seizure of Kharg Island.
Trump reiterates threat to take Kharg Island and control Iran's oil markets
June 30 dips to 2%1%
On June 11, 2026, Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would be taking Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure points in the not too distant future, escalating rhetoric but without any actual military occupation, which kept market probabilities low.
Trump signals potential U.S. seizure of Kharg Island and Iran's oil infrastructure
August 31 drops to 7%6%
On June 11, 2026, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly suggested that the U.S. might take control of Kharg Island and other Iranian oil infrastructure as part of a strategy against Iran's energy sector. This announcement increased market speculation about a possible change in control but did not correspond to any immediate military action.
Trump announces U.S. will seize Kharg Island and other Iranian oil facilities
August 31 drops to 7%6%
President Trump publicly declared intentions to take control of Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure points, escalating market speculation about a potential U.S. takeover. This announcement initially raised market probabilities for a change in control.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island defenses amid US threat of ground operation
June 30 drops to 32%14%
Iran increased military personnel, air defenses, and laid traps on Kharg Island in anticipation of a possible US ground assault. This bolstered Iranian control and reduced market confidence in a US seizure, causing further price decline.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on over 50 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
June 30 plunges to 11%19%
On April 7, 2026, U.S. forces launched precision airstrikes targeting more than 50 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil infrastructure. This demonstrated U.S. military pressure but did not change Iranian control, leading to a decline in market expectations for loss of control.
Explosions on Kharg Island linked to munitions disposal, not loss of control
Explosions heard on Kharg Island were reported by Iranian state media as munitions disposal operations, not military attacks or occupation. This indicated continued Iranian control and no change in sovereignty over the island.
US disables oil tanker bound for Kharg Island violating blockade
June 30 dips to 3%3%
US Central Command disabled the Botswana-flagged tanker M/T Lexie as it attempted to sail to Kharg Island in violation of the US blockade. This enforcement action underscored US efforts to restrict Iranian maritime activity but did not indicate a change in control of the island itself.
Rare VLCC supertanker loads crude at Kharg Island amid disruption
June 30 jumps to 11%9%
Satellite imagery showed a very large crude carrier loading oil at Kharg Island for the first time in nearly a month, indicating Iran's continued operational control despite export disruptions and U.S. naval pressure.
US Central Command Disables Tanker Heading to Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 3%2%
A Hellfire missile launched from a US fighter jet disabled an unladen oil tanker heading to Kharg Island after it ignored warnings, reinforcing the US naval blockade but stopping short of a ground invasion.
U.S. Forces Disable Tanker Sailing Toward Kharg Island as Trump Hints at Peace Deal
June 30 dips to 3%2%
U.S. forces disabled a tanker heading to Kharg Island, but President Trump simultaneously stated that a deal with Iran could be reached soon, signaling containment and diplomacy over territorial seizure.
US Navy Disables Tanker Heading for Kharg Island Under Blockade
June 30 dips to 2%1%
US Central Command announced that a Hellfire missile disabled a tanker heading for Kharg Island after it ignored warnings, reinforcing the strict US naval blockade.
US Fighter Jet Disables Oil Tanker Heading to Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 3%1%
US Central Command announced that a Hellfire missile disabled an unladen oil tanker heading to Kharg Island after it ignored warnings, demonstrating the enforcement of the US blockade but keeping actual control of the island in Iranian hands.
IRGC tightens control over Persian Gulf, reinforcing Iranian hold on Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 5%1%
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) increased maritime patrols and control measures in the Persian Gulf, including around Kharg Island, signaling continued Iranian dominance and reducing market expectations of a loss of control.
US Marines Train Aboard USS Tripoli as Experts Estimate High Troop Requirements for Kharg Seizure
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Military experts noted that any operation to capture Kharg Island would require at least 1,200 troops and expose them to severe Iranian missile risks. This high operational barrier further depressed the market's expectations of an imminent U.S. takeover.
Iran Asserts Sovereignty Over Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island Amid Ceasefire
June 30 dips to 7%2%
A billboard in Tehran depicting the Strait of Hormuz as 'Forever in Iran's Hand' highlighted Iran's continued assertion of sovereignty. With a fragile ceasefire in place and no active U.S. ground operations, traders increasingly bet against a loss of control by June 30, causing the price to drop.
Iranian Tankers Continue Loading Oil at Kharg Island Despite U.S. Blockade
June 30 drops to 8%5%
Reports of Iranian tankers successfully loading oil at Kharg Island demonstrated that Iran maintained firm operational and military control over the island, causing a sharp drop in the perceived probability of a successful U.S. takeover.
U.S. Launches Project Freedom to Escort Neutral Vessels Through Strait of Hormuz
June 30 dips to 9%1%
The U.S. military initiated 'Project Freedom' to guide neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This focused U.S. efforts on maritime enforcement and escort missions rather than launching a ground invasion to seize Kharg Island.
Reports of US and Israeli military planning for possible Kharg Island strike amid war fears
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Reports emerged in mid-May 2026 that US and Israeli military planners were considering expanded strikes or an assault on Kharg Island, reflecting ongoing tensions. However, such operations were assessed as highly risky with no confirmed ground action, sustaining low market probabilities for loss of Iranian control.
U.S. Naval Blockade Halts Loadings at Kharg Island as Exports Shift to Jask
June 30 dips to 7%3%
A U.S. naval blockade successfully choked off tanker traffic at Kharg Island for over ten days, forcing Iran to divert limited shipping operations to its Jask terminal.
US naval blockade halts tanker loadings at Kharg Island, exports shift to Jask terminal
US naval blockade effectively stopped tanker loadings at Kharg Island, causing congestion and delays, but Iran retained control of the island. This operational impact was significant but did not meet the criteria for loss of control.
Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal hit by oil spill
June 30 drops to 3%8%
A satellite image captured an oil spill near Kharg Island on May 6, 2026, indicating environmental damage from the ongoing conflict and disrupting export operations.
Kharg Island oil terminal remains devoid of tankers amid US naval blockade
June 30 rises to 11%2%
Satellite images showed no tankers loading at Kharg Island for at least ten days, indicating the effectiveness of the US naval blockade in straining Iranian oil exports. However, this blockade did not equate to loss of Iranian control over the island itself, keeping market probabilities low.
Satellite images show 23 tankers gathered at Kharg Island amid export bottlenecks
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Satellite imagery revealed a large cluster of tankers at Kharg Island, indicating continued Iranian use of the island as a key oil export hub despite U.S. naval blockades. This suggested Iran maintained operational control, reducing market confidence in a loss of control by June 30.
Satellite imagery shows Kharg Island loading terminals fully empty amid US naval blockade
June 30 dips to 9%1%
Satellite images revealed that Kharg Island's oil export terminals were empty for the first time since April 18, indicating operational disruption from the U.S. naval blockade. Despite this, Iran maintained military and administrative control, reducing market confidence in a change of control.
Kharg Island loading terminals observed fully empty amid intensified Iranian maritime control
June 30 dips to 6%3%
Satellite imagery showed Kharg Island's loading terminals empty for the first time since April 18, with tanker queues nearby and increased IRGC patrols, indicating operational disruptions but continued Iranian control. This suggested stalled exports but no loss of control, impacting market confidence for June 30 outcome.
US Naval Blockade Halts Tanker Loadings at Kharg Island for Tenth Day
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Satellite imagery confirmed that Kharg Island's oil export terminals remained devoid of tanker loading activity for at least ten days due to the US naval blockade. This demonstrated the blockade's effectiveness but reinforced that no ground invasion or change in control had occurred.
Tanker buildup at Iran’s Kharg Island reaches post-blockade high
June 30 rises to 11%2%
Satellite imagery showed a peak in tanker congestion around Kharg Island, indicating ongoing Iranian control and use of the island as an oil export hub despite the US naval blockade. This suggested Iran retained operational control without loss of sovereignty.
Kharg Island Oil Terminals Remain Stalled and Non-Operational Five Weeks Into Ceasefire
June 30 dips to 8%1%
Satellite imagery and maritime intelligence confirmed that Kharg Island's loading terminals remained empty with no active crude departures since May 7, while the IRGC maintained tight control. This lack of active operations combined with the holding ceasefire reduced the perceived likelihood of an imminent military takeover of the island.
Satellite imagery shows stalled oil exports and increased Iranian patrols at Kharg Island
June 30 rises to 11%2%
Imagery from May 18, 2026, revealed that Kharg Island's oil loading terminals were empty for the first time since April, with tanker queues nearby and intensified IRGC patrols, indicating Iran's continued control and operational challenges rather than loss of control.
Satellite Images Show Empty Kharg Island Loading Terminals as U.S. Blockade Bites
June 30 dips to 10%2%
Satellite imagery and maritime intelligence revealed that Kharg Island's loading terminals were completely empty of active tanker loading for at least ten days. While the U.S. naval blockade successfully disrupted exports, Iran's continued military presence and defensive posture on the island meant control did not change.
Satellite imagery shows no tanker loading at Kharg Island amid US naval blockade
June 30 dips to 4%3%
Satellite images from mid-May 2026 showed Kharg Island's oil export terminals devoid of tanker loading activity for at least ten days, indicating the operational impact of the US naval blockade. Despite this disruption, no evidence suggested a change in Iranian control over the island.
No confirmed change in control of Kharg Island despite ongoing conflict
Despite ongoing US-Iran tensions, airstrikes, and military posturing, Iranian governmental and military control over Kharg Island remained intact with no ground operation or occupation, leading to market resolution favoring 'No'.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 8%4%
The U.S. launched precision airstrikes targeting over 50 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil infrastructure to degrade Iran's military capabilities without disrupting oil exports. This demonstrated U.S. military pressure but did not indicate a change in control of the island.
US Air Force bombs Iranian military sites on Kharg Island
June 30 rises to 9%1%
On March 13, 2026, the US Air Force conducted a large bombing raid targeting Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, aiming to degrade Iran's military capabilities without damaging oil infrastructure. This heightened tensions and raised speculation about potential US moves to seize the island, initially increasing market probabilities.
U.S. Air Force bombs military targets on Kharg Island, sparing oil infrastructure
On March 13, 2026, the U.S. conducted a large bombing raid on Kharg Island targeting Iranian military sites but deliberately avoided damaging oil and gas infrastructure. This maintained Iranian control over the island's critical oil export facilities, limiting the market's expectation of a change in control.
Satellite imagery shows Kharg Island oil terminals empty but under Iranian control
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Imagery from mid-May showed no active tanker loading on Kharg Island with tanker queues nearby and intensified Iranian Revolutionary Guard patrols, indicating operational challenges but continued Iranian control, reinforcing market consensus against a change in control.
U.S. conducts large bombing raid on Kharg Island targeting Iranian military sites
June 30 dips to 9%2%
On March 13, 2026, the U.S. Air Force bombed over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately avoiding oil infrastructure. This military action raised the profile of the island as a conflict zone but did not result in a change of control, causing initial market fluctuations.
Oil shipments from Kharg Island halt for several days, first prolonged stoppage since war began
June 30 dips to 8%1%
Satellite imagery showed no oil tankers at Kharg Island for several consecutive days, signaling a significant disruption in oil exports. This suggested operational difficulties but did not indicate loss of Iranian control, affecting market confidence in a control change.
Satellite Data Shows Prolonged Halt in Crude Tanker Loadings at Kharg Island
June 30 rises to 10%1%
Geospatial intelligence and satellite imagery confirmed that Kharg Island's loading terminals were completely empty, indicating that the U.S. economic blockade had successfully halted seaborne crude exports.
Satellite Imagery Reveals Prolonged Halt in Oil Shipments at Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Bloomberg reported that European satellite imagery showed no ocean-going oil tankers at Kharg Island for several consecutive days, marking the first prolonged halt since the war began. While this indicated operational pressure from the US blockade, it also showed that Iran maintained administrative control of the island.
US confirms strikes on Kharg Island military sites, sparing oil infrastructure
US and Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, destroying military facilities but avoiding damage to oil export infrastructure. This demonstrated US military pressure without seizing control, maintaining Iranian sovereignty over the island.
Trump reverses plans to invade Kharg Island after threatening attack
June 30 dips to 9%3%
President Trump announced intentions to invade Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, but subsequently reversed plans for a massive attack. This announcement initially raised market expectations for a change in control but the reversal tempered those expectations, contributing to price volatility.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, sparing oil infrastructure
June 30 dips to 9%3%
The U.S. launched airstrikes targeting over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately avoiding damage to oil export facilities. This reinforced Iranian control of the island and lowered market confidence in a loss of control.
Trump reverses plans for massive attack on Kharg Island after initial invasion threat
June 30 dips to 9%2%
On May 12, 2026, President Trump announced plans to invade Kharg Island but then reversed the decision, canceling a massive attack. This caused some market uncertainty but ultimately no change in control, leading to a decline in the probability for June 30 outcome.
Iran's Kharg Island Oil Shipments Grind to Standstill as Jetties Sit Empty
June 30 rises to 10%1%
Bloomberg reported that no ocean-going tankers were observed at Kharg Island for several consecutive days, marking the first prolonged export halt since the war began.
Trump Departs for Beijing Amid Ongoing Ceasefire and Shelved Invasion Plans
June 30 dips to 9%1%
President Trump departed for China as a fragile ceasefire remained in place. Reports highlighted that U.S. military plans to invade Kharg Island had been repeatedly shelved due to high casualty risks and the need for significant ground troops.
Trump announces intent to invade Kharg Island but reverses plans
June 30 dips to 9%3%
President Trump publicly stated plans to invade Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, but shortly after reversed the decision, causing market uncertainty and a drop in the probability of the island no longer being under Iranian control.
Satellite images show prolonged halt in oil shipments from Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 8%4%
Satellite imagery revealed no oil tankers loading at Kharg Island for several days, indicating severe disruption due to the US naval blockade. Despite this, Iran maintained military control, leading to market confidence falling to a low of 8%.
Trump cancels planned massive attack on Iran and Kharg Island invasion
June 30 dips to 7%2%
President Trump initially threatened a massive attack on Iran and announced plans to invade Kharg Island, but later reversed these plans citing progress in ceasefire negotiations and concerns over troop casualties. This reduced market confidence in a near-term change of control of Kharg Island.
Satellite imagery shows prolonged halt in oil shipments at Kharg Island amid US blockade
June 30 drops to 7%5%
Satellite images showed no ocean-going oil tankers at Kharg Island for several consecutive days in early May, marking the longest disruption since the conflict began. This indicated effective US naval blockade pressure but no loss of Iranian control over the island.
No credible reports of Kharg Island changing control despite ongoing conflict
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Despite ongoing military actions and threats, no official or credible reports confirmed that Iran lost control of Kharg Island, leading to market prices stabilizing at low levels reflecting a 'No' resolution expectation.
EO imagery shows damaged Kharg Island oil terminal amid stalled loading operations
Satellite imagery on May 11 revealed damage to Kharg Island's southwestern oil terminal and empty loading terminals, indicating disruption but no loss of Iranian control. Tanker queues and IRGC patrols intensified, suggesting Iran maintained operational control despite challenges.
Kharg Island Loading Terminals Observed Fully Empty as Export Disruption Sustains
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Satellite imagery showed all loading terminals empty for the first time since April 18, confirming severe operational disruption but demonstrating that Iran maintained unchallenged administrative control.
Satellite imagery reveals prolonged halt in oil shipments at Kharg Island
Satellite images showed no ocean-going oil tankers at Kharg Island for several consecutive days, the longest such halt since the conflict began. While this indicated operational pressure and storage capacity issues, there was no evidence of a change in Iranian control of the island.
No credible reports of Kharg Island changing control despite ongoing conflict
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Despite ongoing military actions, airstrikes, and threats, no official or credible reports confirmed that Iran lost control of Kharg Island. Iran maintained military and governmental control, and the market settled at a low probability reflecting a 'No' resolution expectation.
Large oil slick detected near Kharg Island amid US blockade
June 30 dips to 5%2%
Satellite images showed a large oil spill near Kharg Island, raising concerns about infrastructure strain amid the U.S. naval blockade, but Iran denied any leak from its facilities, attributing the spill to a damaged tanker.
U.S. maintains blockade and airstrikes but no ground invasion of Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Despite ongoing military pressure including airstrikes and blockades, no U.S. ground troops were deployed to seize Kharg Island, and Iran retained control, leading to further decline in market probability.
Large Oil Slick Detected Near Strategic Kharg Island Hub
June 30 dips to 9%1%
Satellite imagery revealed a massive oil spill covering over 20 square miles west of Kharg Island. While the incident raised maritime security concerns, it confirmed that the island remained under firm Iranian administrative and military control, contributing to a gradual decline in the perceived likelihood of a near-term transfer of control.
Massive oil spill detected near Iran's Kharg Island amid regional conflict
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Satellite images revealed a large oil spill near Kharg Island, raising environmental and economic concerns amid ongoing military tensions. This highlighted the strategic importance and vulnerability of the island but did not indicate a change in control.
Satellite images show prolonged halt in oil tanker loadings at Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 8%1%
European satellite imagery confirmed no ocean-going oil tankers were observed at Kharg Island for several days, indicating a prolonged halt in shipments due to the conflict and U.S. naval blockade. Despite this, no evidence suggested a change in Iranian control.
Satellite Imagery Reveals Large Oil Spill Near Iran's Kharg Island Hub
Satellite images from Copernicus captured a grey and white slick covering dozens of square kilometers west of Kharg Island, highlighting ongoing environmental and operational disruptions amid the conflict.
Kharg Island Oil Shipments Halt as Storage Nears Capacity Under U.S. Blockade
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Satellite imagery confirmed that no ocean-going tankers loaded at Kharg Island for several days, indicating the operational success of the U.S. naval blockade. However, because the blockade successfully choked exports without requiring U.S. troops to land, the island remained under Iranian administrative control, cementing the 'No' resolution.
Satellite Imagery Reveals Massive Oil Spill Near Iran's Kharg Island Export Hub
June 30 dips to 8%4%
Satellite images captured a suspected oil spill covering dozens of square kilometers west of Kharg Island, raising concerns about infrastructure damage and halting tanker loadings.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
June 30 plunges to 11%19%
The US launched airstrikes targeting over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, deliberately sparing oil infrastructure. This reinforced Iranian military control and did not result in a change of control, contributing to market skepticism about a US takeover.
Massive Oil Spill Detected Near Iran's Strategic Kharg Island Export Hub
Satellite imagery revealed a suspected oil spill covering dozens of square kilometers west of Kharg Island, raising maritime security concerns but confirming that the island remained under Iranian administrative control.
Satellite imagery shows large oil spill near Kharg Island amid U.S. naval blockade
June 30 dips to 7%2%
Satellite images revealed a large oil slick near Kharg Island, raising environmental concerns and highlighting operational strain on Iran's oil infrastructure due to the U.S. naval blockade. Despite the spill, Iran denied leaks from its facilities and maintained control over the island.
US and Iranian naval forces exchange fire in Strait of Hormuz near Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Between May 8-10, US and Iranian forces clashed in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions but with no reported change in control of Kharg Island. The continued Iranian presence and operations on the island kept market confidence low for a control shift.
US naval blockade halts tanker loadings at Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 4%5%
Satellite imagery confirmed no ocean-going tankers loaded at Kharg Island for at least 10 days due to a U.S. naval blockade, severely disrupting Iran's oil exports but not indicating a loss of Iranian control over the island.
U.S. and Iran Close in on One-Page Memo to End War
June 30 dips to 9%1%
Reports emerged that Washington and Tehran were nearing a 14-point memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, which would include lifting blockades and sanctions. This diplomatic progress lowered the probability of a U.S. military invasion to seize Kharg Island.
Satellite imagery shows prolonged halt in oil shipments from Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 9%2%
Satellite images revealed no ocean-going oil tankers at Kharg Island for several days in early May, indicating a significant disruption in Iranian oil exports but no change in control of the island. This contributed to market uncertainty about the island's status.
Satellite imagery shows oil spill near Kharg Island amid ongoing conflict
June 30 dips to 9%2%
Satellite images revealed a large oil spill near Kharg Island, highlighting the environmental and strategic significance of the island during the ongoing Iran conflict. This underscored the island's continued Iranian control and the risks of escalation, contributing to market uncertainty.
Satellite Imagery Detects Large Oil Spill Near Iran's Strategic Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 8%1%
Satellite images captured a massive oil slick spreading off the coast of Kharg Island, highlighting regional friction and potential infrastructure leaks. However, the island remained firmly under Iranian administrative and military control, keeping the probability of a foreign takeover low.
Satellite Images Reveal Massive Oil Spill Near Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Satellite imagery from May 6-8, 2026, showed a large oil slick covering approximately 45 square kilometers near Kharg Island, raising environmental concerns amid ongoing conflict. The spill was suspected to be linked to military or technical operations but did not indicate a loss of Iranian control.
Satellite imagery reveals massive oil spill near Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 7%2%
Satellite images from May 6-8 showed a large oil slick covering dozens of square kilometers west of Kharg Island, raising environmental concerns amid ongoing conflict. The spill highlighted the strain on Iranian oil infrastructure but did not indicate a loss of Iranian control over the island.
Massive Oil Spill Detected Near Iran's Kharg Island Export Hub
Satellite imagery detected a massive 45-square-kilometer oil slick west of Kharg Island, raising environmental concerns and highlighting the severe operational disruptions to Iran's primary oil export terminal.
Kharg Island oil exports disrupted by suspected oil spill and US blockade
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Satellite imagery and ship tracking indicated no tanker loading at Kharg Island since May 6 due to an oil spill and ongoing US naval blockade, severely limiting Iran's oil exports but with Iran retaining control of the island.
Satellite Imagery Reveals Large Oil Spill Near Iran's Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Satellite images captured a massive oil spill covering dozens of square kilometers near Kharg Island, highlighting the ongoing environmental and logistical toll of the conflict but confirming that Iran still actively operated the terminal.
Senator Lindsey Graham Backtracks on Calls for U.S. to Seize Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 9%3%
After previously urging President Trump to seize the island, Senator Lindsey Graham reversed his position on Fox News, signaling a lack of political and military appetite for a risky ground occupation.
Analysis compares Kharg Island to historic Vicksburg siege highlighting strategic importance
An article likened Kharg Island to Vicksburg, emphasizing its strategic military significance and the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. This framing underscored the island's fortified status and the difficulty of seizing control, tempering market expectations for a quick change in control.
Senator Lindsey Graham Backtracks on Calls for U.S. to Seize Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Senator Lindsey Graham reversed his previous aggressive stance urging President Trump to physically seize Kharg Island, suggesting instead that the U.S. threaten it from the air. This signal of reduced political appetite for a risky ground occupation contributed to a drop in market expectations of a change in control.
U.S. Navy escorts stranded ships through Strait of Hormuz amid Iran conflict
June 30 dips to 11%1%
Ships stranded in the Persian Gulf coordinated with the U.S. Navy to transit the Strait of Hormuz safely, reflecting ongoing tensions but no change in control of Kharg Island. This maintained uncertainty about the island's status, contributing to market price fluctuations.
U.S. Airstrikes Destroy Over 90 Iranian Military Sites on Kharg Island
On March 13, 2026, the U.S. conducted a large-scale precision bombing raid on Kharg Island targeting Iranian military infrastructure, destroying over 90 sites but deliberately avoiding oil facilities. This military action heightened tensions and initially raised the market's probability of Iran losing control, reflected in early May prices.
Kharg Island Onshore Oil Storage Nears Full Capacity Under US Blockade
June 30 dips to 14%2%
Reports indicated that Kharg Island had only 12 to 13 days of spare onshore storage remaining due to the US naval blockade, forcing Iran to reactivate idle tankers as floating storage.
Kharg Island oil storage reaches full capacity amid US naval blockade
June 30 dips to 14%2%
Following a US naval blockade starting April 13, Kharg Island's oil storage filled to capacity by April 26, severely limiting Iran's oil exports. Despite economic pressure, Iran maintained control of the island, contributing to the market's low probability of loss of control.
US naval blockade limits Kharg Island oil exports amid storage constraints
June 30 dips to 12%4%
US naval blockade and storage capacity limits severely restricted oil exports from Kharg Island, but satellite imagery confirmed ongoing tanker activity and loading, indicating Iran retained control despite operational challenges.
U.S. Discusses Seizing Kharg Island Under 'Plan B' Ultimatum
June 30 jumps to 21%5%
Reports emerged that the White House and Pentagon discussed military control of Kharg Island as a 'Plan B' option if diplomatic efforts failed, causing a minor temporary rebound in the market's perceived probability of a takeover.
U.S. discusses military control of Kharg Island as part of escalation strategy
On April 21, 2026, reports revealed that U.S. officials were considering military control over Kharg Island to force Iran to comply with U.S. terms, alongside a naval blockade. Despite these discussions, no actual seizure occurred, and Iran continued to operate the island, contributing to market skepticism.
US Issues 15-Day Ultimatum to Iran with Kharg Island Seizure on the Table
June 30 jumps to 20%8%
Reports emerged that the Trump administration was discussing a final 15-day ultimatum and bartering frozen funds before activating direct military force, causing a temporary spike in market probability.
Trump extends naval blockade of Kharg Island, rules out ground invasion
June 30 plunges to 16%15%
President Trump announced an extension of the limited U.S. naval blockade around Kharg Island, confirming that U.S. forces would continue to patrol and enforce a quarantine but would not land troops. The clarification lowered the perceived risk of an actual ground occupation, pushing the “Yes” probability down to a low‑teen range (14 % on April 14 and 16 % through the end of April).
US signals military control of Kharg Island as option in Iran negotiations
June 30 dips to 14%2%
On April 21, reports revealed US discussions about seizing Kharg Island or imposing a naval blockade as leverage in negotiations with Iran. Despite this, no actual control change occurred, reinforcing market skepticism and further lowering the price.
President Trump extends ceasefire with Iran but maintains naval blockade
June 30 drops to 16%5%
President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan's request but kept the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, including Kharg Island. This prolonged the conflict without a change in control, further lowering market confidence in a U.S. seizure by June 30.
US discusses military control of Kharg Island as part of escalation plans
June 30 dips to 16%1%
US officials discussed the option of seizing Kharg Island to force Iran to comply with US terms, supported by military build-ups and a 15-day ultimatum. Despite this, no actual control change occurred, and Iran maintained control, leading to continued low market probabilities.
US Considers Bartering Frozen Funds and Issues 15-Day Ultimatum to Iran
June 30 rises to 18%4%
Reports emerged that the Trump administration was discussing a final 15-day ultimatum and bartering frozen funds before activating direct military force, causing a temporary spike in market volatility.
Reports of US discussions on seizing Kharg Island or imposing naval blockade
June 30 drops to 14%8%
Reports emerged that the US administration was considering military control of Kharg Island or a naval blockade to force Iran's compliance. Despite these discussions, no actual military occupation or change in control occurred, leading to further decline in market probability for loss of Iranian control.
U.S. issues ultimatum with military buildup but no seizure of Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 9%7%
The U.S. maintained military pressure and discussed seizing Kharg Island as a 'Plan B' if diplomacy failed, but no actual occupation occurred, leading to further market price declines as control remained with Iran.
U.S. administration discusses military control of Kharg Island as leverage against Iran
White House and Pentagon discussions included the option of seizing Kharg Island to force Iran to comply with U.S. terms, supported by military build-ups and a 15-day ultimatum, but no ground operation was launched, keeping control with Iran.
White House and Pentagon Discuss Seizing Kharg Island Under 'Plan B' Ultimatum
June 30 jumps to 17%6%
Reports emerged that the Trump administration was considering advanced offensive military scenarios, including seizing Kharg Island, if diplomatic paths failed, causing a minor temporary rebound in the market.
US considers military control of Kharg Island as leverage in negotiations
June 30 drops to 17%5%
On April 21, 2026, reports indicated US discussions about seizing Kharg Island or imposing a naval blockade to force Iran's compliance, but no actual control change occurred. This maintained downward pressure on market prices.
U.S. Weighs Bartering Frozen Funds for Iranian Uranium Stockpile Amid Ultimatum
June 30 jumps to 17%6%
Reports emerged that the U.S. was offering a diplomatic deal to barter frozen funds for Iran's enriched uranium, framing military control of Kharg Island as a 'Plan B' option only if talks failed.
Iranian President signals collapse of diplomacy, raising stakes for Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 14%2%
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated that diplomatic talks would collapse, increasing the risk of military escalation. However, no reports confirmed a change in control of Kharg Island, maintaining market skepticism.
No credible reports of Kharg Island changing control; Iran maintains defenses
June 30 drops to 9%11%
Despite ongoing conflict and U.S. military pressure, no official or credible reports confirmed that Kharg Island was no longer under Iranian control. Iran's reinforced defenses and lack of U.S. ground occupation led the market to settle at a low probability for a change in control by the resolution date.
Iran signals collapse of talks, raising risk of intensified conflict
June 30 drops to 12%10%
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated talks would collapse if no deal is reached soon, increasing the risk of military escalation but no confirmed change in control of Kharg Island, keeping market sentiment low.
Iran Strengthens Military Presence on Kharg Island, Reducing U.S. Seizure Chances
June 30 drops to 9%5%
Iran continued to fortify Kharg Island with additional troops and air defenses, signaling strong control and diminishing the likelihood of a U.S. takeover, which kept market probabilities low.
Iran continues to operate and defend Kharg Island amid conflict
June 30 drops to 14%7%
Despite ongoing conflict and US threats, Iran maintained operations at Kharg Island, including crude oil loading, and reinforced defenses, indicating no loss of control. This sustained Iranian control further lowered market prices for a US takeover by June 30.
Iran Strengthens Military Presence on Kharg Island, Lowering Odds of U.S. Control
June 30 drops to 12%11%
Iran continued to fortify Kharg Island with additional troops and defenses, signaling strong control and reducing the likelihood of a U.S. takeover, which was reflected in the market's declining probability.
President Trump Turns Down Proposals for US Troop Control of Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Reports emerged that President Trump rejected military proposals to deploy ground troops to seize Kharg Island, prioritizing troop safety and cooling invasion speculation.
Iran maintains control of Kharg Island despite U.S. strikes and threats
June 30 drops to 11%11%
Despite U.S. airstrikes targeting military sites on Kharg Island and ongoing threats, Iran's reinforced defenses and continued operations at the oil terminal indicated no loss of control, leading to a sharp market decline in the probability of a change in control.
US extends naval blockade and ceasefire while Kharg Island oil loading continues
June 30 drops to 12%5%
Despite ongoing US naval blockade and military pressure, satellite imagery confirmed continued oil loading operations at Kharg Island, indicating Iran's operational control remained intact. This reduced market confidence in a loss of control by the June 30 outcome date.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island with air defenses and mines
June 30 drops to 12%10%
Reports confirmed Iran had significantly reinforced Kharg Island's military defenses with man-portable air-defense systems and extensive minefields, further complicating any US attempt to seize the island and lowering market odds.
No change in territorial control of Kharg Island despite US airstrikes
June 30 drops to 9%9%
Despite US airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, no actual change in control occurred, and Iran maintained primary governmental and military control, leading to further market decline in the probability of a US takeover by March 31.
US Central Command confirms Marine and Navy support for Iran blockade
June 30 dips to 14%2%
CENTCOM confirmed Marine and Navy support for a blockade targeting Iran, including Kharg Island, signaling increased military pressure but no direct seizure. This reinforced expectations of continued Iranian control, causing a price drop in the market for Kharg Island control by June 30.
Trump previously rejected seizing Kharg Island fearing U.S. casualties
Reports revealed President Trump had considered but declined to seize Kharg Island due to risks to American troops, reinforcing market doubts about a successful occupation.
President Trump reportedly rejected seizing Kharg Island due to casualty fears
June 30 drops to 16%5%
Reports indicated President Trump declined to seize Kharg Island fearing American casualties and exposure of troops, favoring blockade instead, which dampened market optimism for a takeover.
President Trump reportedly declines plan to seize Kharg Island over casualty fears
June 30 drops to 16%14%
Reports indicated President Trump rejected a plan to seize Kharg Island due to concerns about American casualties and vulnerability of troops, reinforcing market views that U.S. control was unlikely and pushing prices lower.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports including Kharg Island
June 30 plunges to 14%16%
The US naval blockade starting April 13 halted exports through Kharg Island, severely limiting Iran's oil exports. Despite economic pressure, Iran maintained control, contributing to market decline in probability of loss of control.
Trump Activates Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports as Alternative to Ground Invasion
June 30 drops to 11%7%
Following the collapse of peace talks in Islamabad, President Trump ordered a naval blockade of Iranian ports instead of launching a ground assault to seize Kharg Island. This shift in strategy to offshore containment significantly reduced the probability of a physical takeover of the island.
U.S. Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports Begins
June 30 drops to 17%7%
The U.S. initiated a naval blockade on Iranian ports, including Kharg Island, to halt oil exports. This non-invasion strategy confirmed that the U.S. was opting for economic pressure over a ground seizure.
U.S. imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports including Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 16%8%
The U.S. naval blockade effectively halted tanker loadings at Kharg Island, severely limiting Iran's oil exports. Despite this economic pressure, Iran maintained military and governmental control of the island, further reducing market expectations of a loss of control.
US naval blockade of Iranian ports including Kharg Island begins
June 30 drops to 9%7%
Starting April 13, 2026, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports including Kharg Island, effectively halting oil exports through the island. Despite this operational disruption, Iran maintained military and administrative control, which lowered market expectations of a loss of control.
US-Iran Peace Talks in Islamabad Collapse Without Agreement
June 30 dips to 17%4%
High-stakes direct negotiations in Pakistan collapsed after 21 hours due to disagreements over nuclear commitments, prompting the U.S. to announce a naval blockade and raising fears of renewed military escalation.
Analysis highlights challenges of seizing and holding Kharg Island
June 30 plunges to 18%19%
On April 8, expert analysis emphasized the operational and sustainment challenges of occupying Kharg Island, including the need for extensive military resources and risks of Iranian retaliation. This dampened market optimism about a US takeover, pushing prices lower.
Experts warn seizing Kharg Island risks U.S. lives and may not end war
June 30 plunges to 13%17%
Military and energy experts cautioned that a U.S. ground invasion of Kharg Island would be difficult to hold and might not force Iran to capitulate, suggesting alternative strategies like blockades. This tempered market optimism about a change in control.
U.S. and Iran Agree to Two-Week Ceasefire Mediated by Pakistan
June 30 dips to 11%2%
President Trump announced a two-week suspension of attacks on Iran in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, significantly reducing the immediate likelihood of a U.S. ground assault to seize Kharg Island.
Experts caution seizing Kharg Island risks US lives and may not end Iran war
June 30 plunges to 13%17%
Military and energy experts warned that seizing Kharg Island would be difficult, risky for US troops, and unlikely to force Iran to capitulate, reinforcing market skepticism about a change in control.
Pakistan brokers temporary U.S.–Iran cease‑fire; Kharg Island tension eases
June 30 drops to 19%12%
Pakistan brokered a temporary cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, which was publicly announced on April 8. The cease‑fire eased immediate fighting around Kharg Island, causing the market’s “Yes” odds to drop sharply. The price slid from 31 % on April 7 to 19 % on April 9, reflecting reduced expectations of an imminent U.S. occupation.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island defenses amid ongoing US threats
June 30 drops to 18%5%
Iran continued to bolster its military presence and defenses on Kharg Island, laying traps and deploying additional forces to deter a US ground invasion. This sustained Iranian control and contributed to further market decline in the probability of loss of control.
U.S. pauses additional strikes on Kharg Island as diplomatic talks intensify
June 30 dips to 11%2%
On April 8, the U.S. announced it would pause further strikes on Kharg Island pending diplomatic talks, while Iran continued regular crude loading. The de‑escalation signal further reduced market confidence in a change of control, pushing the price down to the low‑teens.
Iran continues to strengthen Kharg Island defenses amid ongoing conflict
June 30 plunges to 18%19%
Iran reportedly continued reinforcing Kharg Island with man-portable air-defense systems and mines, maintaining strong control over the island and reducing the likelihood of a US seizure by the resolution date.
U.S. Conducts Precision Airstrikes on Kharg Island Military Targets Sparing Oil Infrastructure
June 30 plunges to 18%19%
The U.S. launched a fresh round of airstrikes targeting military installations on Kharg Island while deliberately sparing oil infrastructure, signaling a strategy of containment rather than territorial seizure.
US launches second airstrike on military targets on Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 11%6%
US forces conducted another airstrike targeting Iranian military infrastructure on Kharg Island, again sparing oil export facilities. This reinforced Iranian control and lowered market confidence in a loss of control.
US strikes Kharg Island military targets again, spares oil infrastructure
June 30 drops to 22%6%
The US conducted a second wave of airstrikes on Kharg Island targeting dozens of military sites, including air defenses and missile storage, while deliberately avoiding oil facilities. Iran reported explosions but maintained that oil export operations continued, reinforcing the view that Iran retained control.
US military launches additional airstrikes on Kharg Island military targets
June 30 drops to 18%12%
The US conducted further airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations on Kharg Island, again sparing oil infrastructure. Iran reported minimal damage and continued normal oil export operations, reinforcing that control remained with Iran and lowering market expectations of a change.
U.S. military strikes Iranian military targets on Kharg Island again
June 30 drops to 14%7%
The U.S. launched another airstrike targeting Iranian military infrastructure on Kharg Island, again sparing oil export facilities. This reinforced Iranian control and lowered market confidence in a loss of control.
U.S. strikes military targets on Kharg Island; Iran says oil exports intact
June 30 drops to 21%10%
The U.S. conducted strikes on military targets on Kharg Island, hitting bunkers and air defenses but sparing oil infrastructure. Iran confirmed the island remained operational, signaling continued Iranian control and dampening market expectations of a control change.
US Launches Precision Airstrikes on Kharg Island Military Targets
June 30 plunges to 22%15%
The U.S. military launched another round of airstrikes targeting military installations on Kharg Island while deliberately sparing oil infrastructure, signaling a strategy of containment rather than territorial seizure.
U.S. military launches strikes on over 50 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 30%1%
The U.S. conducted further airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, continuing to degrade military capabilities but sparing oil infrastructure, maintaining pressure without changing control of the island.
US launches multiple airstrikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
June 30 plunges to 11%19%
On April 7, 2026, the U.S. military launched a series of airstrikes on Kharg Island military targets, described as "restrikes" to ensure damage. Despite these strikes, Iranian oil infrastructure remained intact and Iran maintained control, leading to further decline in market probability for loss of control.
US Conducts Precision Airstrikes on Kharg Island Military Targets
June 30 drops to 11%6%
The U.S. military launched another round of airstrikes targeting military installations on Kharg Island while deliberately sparing oil infrastructure, signaling a strategy of containment rather than territorial seizure.
U.S. Launches Precision Airstrikes on Kharg Island Military Targets Ahead of Deadline
June 30 plunges to 13%18%
The U.S. military conducted a series of airstrikes targeting military installations on Kharg Island while deliberately sparing its vital oil infrastructure, signaling a preference for targeted pressure over a ground invasion.
U.S. Conducts Second Round of Precision Airstrikes on Kharg Island Military Targets
June 30 plunges to 19%18%
The U.S. military launched another round of airstrikes targeting military installations on Kharg Island while deliberately sparing oil infrastructure, signaling a strategy of containment rather than territorial seizure.
U.S. military strikes military targets on Kharg Island again
June 30 plunges to 16%15%
The U.S. conducted a second round of airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure on Kharg Island, again sparing oil export facilities. This reinforced Iranian control and further lowered market confidence in a loss of control by the resolution date.
US strikes military targets on Kharg Island again, sparing oil infrastructure
June 30 dips to 30%2%
The US conducted additional strikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island without damaging oil infrastructure, reaffirming the US strategy of military pressure without seizing the island, which maintained market skepticism about loss of Iranian control.
US Conducts Multiple Strikes on Military Targets on Kharg Island
June 30 plunges to 13%19%
The U.S. launched airstrikes targeting military sites on Kharg Island. Because the strikes deliberately avoided oil infrastructure and did not involve ground troops, the probability of a change in control fell sharply.
US conducts second airstrike on Kharg Island targeting military sites only
June 30 dips to 28%4%
A second wave of U.S. airstrikes hit additional Iranian military installations on Kharg Island, again sparing the oil terminals. The repeat attacks reinforced that the United States was applying pressure without attempting to occupy the island, keeping Iranian control intact and further eroding market optimism for a loss of control.
US launches airstrikes on military targets on Kharg Island ahead of Trump deadline
June 30 dips to 30%2%
The US conducted strikes on about 50 military targets on Kharg Island, again sparing oil infrastructure. This reinforced that the US was applying pressure but not seizing control, leading to further decline in market probability for loss of Iranian control.
US military launches strikes on Kharg Island targeting Iranian military sites
June 30 plunges to 18%19%
The US conducted further airstrikes on over 50 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, continuing to degrade military capabilities without seizing control. This maintained pressure but no ground invasion occurred, keeping market probabilities low.
US airstrikes again target military sites on Kharg Island amid blockade
June 30 drops to 14%14%
The US conducted further airstrikes on Kharg Island military infrastructure without hitting oil facilities, while imposing a naval blockade that disrupted oil exports. This increased operational strain but did not change control, reflected in a price drop from 28% to 14%.
U.S. military launches second round of strikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 18%12%
The U.S. conducted additional airstrikes targeting military installations on Kharg Island, again sparing oil export facilities. This reinforced military pressure but did not alter Iranian control, leading to further decline in market probability for loss of control.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island with additional military personnel and air defenses
June 30 plunges to 14%22%
By early April, Iran had increased military personnel and air defenses on Kharg Island in anticipation of a possible US operation, reducing the likelihood of a successful US seizure and pushing market prices lower.
U.S. conducts additional strikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, avoiding oil facilities
June 30 dips to 20%2%
The U.S. carried out further airstrikes on military targets on Kharg Island, described as restrikes on previously hit sites, maintaining pressure without damaging oil infrastructure. This reinforced the stance that the U.S. was not yet seizing the island, contributing to declining market odds.
Iran Denies Rumors of US Helicopter Assault on Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 19%11%
Iranian state media quickly dismissed social media rumors of a U.S. ground landing, asserting that the island remained under complete Iranian military control.
Reports confirm Iran maintains control of Kharg Island despite US threats
June 30 drops to 28%10%
Despite US military presence and threats, Iran continued to operate Kharg Island's oil export facilities and maintain control, with no credible reports of US occupation. This led to a sharp decline in market probability for a US takeover by March 31.
Experts warn seizing Kharg Island risks U.S. lives and may not end conflict
June 30 drops to 22%6%
By early April, military and regional experts cautioned that a U.S. ground invasion of Kharg Island would be difficult to hold and might not force Iran to capitulate, dampening market optimism about a change in control.
Experts caution seizing Kharg Island would be difficult and risky
June 30 drops to 21%7%
Military and energy experts warned that taking and holding Kharg Island would be hard and might not force Iran to capitulate, suggesting a blockade might be a safer strategy. This expert analysis contributed to a decline in market confidence for a loss of Iranian control.
Experts warn seizing Kharg Island risks U.S. lives and may not end Iran war
June 30 plunges to 16%16%
Military and regional experts cautioned that a U.S. ground seizure of Kharg Island would be difficult to hold, risk American lives, and might not compel Iran to capitulate, leading to reduced market expectations for a change in control.
Experts say seizing Kharg Island would be too risky for U.S. troops
June 30 plunges to 13%17%
The Los Angeles Times published expert commentary warning that any U.S. attempt to occupy Kharg Island would be costly and unlikely to succeed. The analysis dampened expectations of a successful seizure, accelerating the price decline toward single digits.
Military Experts Warn Seizing Kharg Island Risks U.S. Troops' Lives and May Not End War
June 30 drops to 28%10%
Analysts and military experts cautioned that a ground invasion to seize Kharg Island would be highly dangerous and difficult to sustain, deterring U.S. ground operations and lowering market expectations of a change in control.
US President Trump threatens to deploy troops to seize Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 22%6%
President Trump publicly threatened to send ground forces to seize Kharg Island, but experts and analysts highlighted the high risk and potential failure, which contributed to further market price decline.
Trump States Seizing Kharg Island Remains an Option in Financial Times Interview
June 30 drops to 32%11%
President Trump publicly kept the option of taking Kharg Island on the table to pressure Iran, causing a brief spike in market volatility before prices dropped.
President Trump threatens to seize Kharg Island and obliterate Iran's oil infrastructure if Strait of Hormuz not reopened
June 30 rises to 44%3%
President Trump publicly threatened to take control of Kharg Island and destroy its oil infrastructure to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This escalated tensions and briefly increased market speculation about a possible U.S. ground operation.
President Trump signals possible ground invasion of Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 28%9%
On March 30, President Trump publicly discussed the possibility of deploying U.S. troops to seize Kharg Island to control Iran's oil exports and pressure Tehran. This raised market hopes briefly but also highlighted the risks and challenges of such an operation.
U.S. President Trump Signals Possible Troop Deployment to Seize Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 23%7%
President Trump indicated potential deployment of U.S. troops to seize Kharg Island, increasing market speculation about a change in control. However, experts warned of high risks and challenges in holding the island, tempering market enthusiasm.
Trump Openly Muses About Seizing Kharg Island but Notes Long-Term Occupation Risks
June 30 drops to 30%7%
President Trump publicly discussed the option of taking Kharg Island to control Iran's oil, but noted that it would require a long-term presence. This mixed signal caused the market to fluctuate as the logistical and political difficulties of a ground invasion became clearer.
Trump Suggests Seizing Kharg Island Remains an Option in FT Interview
June 30 plunges to 30%18%
President Trump publicly floated the possibility of taking Kharg Island to control Iran's oil, though he noted it would require a sustained U.S. military presence.
Trump Threatens to Obliterate Kharg Island if Strait of Hormuz Is Not Reopened
June 30 drops to 28%9%
President Trump threatened to completely destroy Iran's oil wells and Kharg Island if a peace deal is not reached shortly, signaling a shift toward destructive bombardment rather than a territorial seizure.
President Trump signals possible US troop deployment to seize Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 39%5%
President Trump publicly discussed plans to deploy ground troops to seize Kharg Island to pressure Iran, raising market attention and causing price volatility. However, experts warned of high risks and challenges in holding the island, tempering expectations of a successful occupation.
Trump Publicly Suggests US Could Seize Kharg Island and Its Oil
June 30 drops to 32%12%
President Trump stated in an interview that seizing Kharg Island was an option to take Iran's oil and exert pressure, causing a temporary spike in market attention before prices resumed their downward trend.
Trump States Seizure of Kharg Island is One of Many Options
June 30 drops to 37%9%
President Trump publicly mused about the possibility of taking Kharg Island but emphasized that no final decision had been made, keeping traders highly uncertain about a ground invasion.
Trump Threatens Ground Troops for Kharg Island as Experts Warn of High Risks
June 30 drops to 30%12%
President Trump publicly considered sending ground forces to seize Kharg Island to control Iran's oil exports, but military experts warned that such an operation would risk American lives and might fail to end the war, leading to a decline in market confidence.
US President Trump signals possible troop deployment to seize Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 30%7%
On March 30, President Trump indicated potential deployment of troops to seize Kharg Island, raising market speculation. However, experts warned of operational difficulties and risks, tempering expectations of a successful takeover and causing price volatility.
Trump vows to seize or destroy Kharg Island if Iran does not reopen Hormuz
June 30 drops to 37%11%
President Trump warned on Truth Social that the United States would seize or destroy Kharg Island’s oil facilities unless Tehran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The harsh threat raised the likelihood of a U.S. occupation, pushing the market’s “Yes” probability sharply higher. By the next day the price fell from 48 % to 37 % as traders reassessed the credibility of the threat.
Trump signals intent to deploy troops to seize Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 30%8%
BBC reported that President Trump publicly reiterated the option of sending troops to seize Kharg Island. The renewed high‑profile threat caused a short rally in the market’s ‘Yes’ probability, pushing the price back up before the later declines.
Trump Publicly Suggests Seizing Kharg Island to Control Iran's Oil Exports
June 30 jumps to 44%6%
President Trump publicly considered deploying ground troops to seize Kharg Island to control Iran's oil exports, causing a temporary spike in market attention and price volatility.
President Trump discusses potential U.S. troop deployment to seize Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 32%7%
President Trump publicly indicated consideration of deploying ground troops to seize Kharg Island to gain leverage in the conflict, but experts warned of high risks and difficulties in holding the island. This announcement initially maintained some market optimism but also introduced doubts about feasibility.
President Trump signals possible troop deployment to seize Kharg Island
June 30 drops to 30%7%
President Trump indicated the possibility of sending troops to seize Kharg Island to gain leverage in the conflict, causing brief market uncertainty. However, no ground invasion occurred, and the island remained under Iranian control, leading to further price decline.
Experts warn seizing Kharg Island risks US troops' lives and may not end Iran war
June 30 drops to 18%12%
Military and regional experts cautioned that a U.S. ground invasion to seize Kharg Island would be difficult to hold and might not force Iran to capitulate, suggesting a blockade as a safer alternative. This tempered market expectations for a successful U.S. occupation.
President Trump signals possible deployment of troops to seize Kharg Island
June 30 rises to 44%3%
President Trump publicly indicated the possibility of sending US troops to seize Kharg Island to control Iran's oil exports, raising market attention and causing price volatility. However, experts warned of high risks and challenges, and no ground invasion occurred.
President Trump publicly considers seizing Kharg Island to control Iran's oil exports
June 30 drops to 32%7%
Trump suggested the US could seize Kharg Island, highlighting its strategic importance. This raised market attention but also concerns about the feasibility and risks of such an operation, contributing to price volatility and a downward trend in the probability of loss of Iranian control.
Trump Signals Potential Seizure of Kharg Island to Force Reopening of Strait of Hormuz
June 30 plunges to 30%18%
President Donald Trump publicly suggested that the U.S. could seize control of Iran's primary oil export terminal on Kharg Island to compel Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising market expectations of a potential shift in control.
Trump Threatens to Deploy Ground Troops to Seize Kharg Island if Strait Negotiations Fail
June 30 drops to 32%7%
President Trump publicly considered deploying ground forces to seize Kharg Island to control Iran's oil exports, briefly spiking market attention before experts highlighted the high risks of such an operation.
Kharg Island continues oil operations amid increased Iranian defenses
June 30 drops to 30%8%
Despite regional tensions and US strikes, Kharg Island's oil export terminal remained operational with crude loading continuing, while Iran strengthened air defenses with man-portable air-defense systems, signaling sustained Iranian control.
Iran strengthens defenses on Kharg Island amid US military buildup
June 30 drops to 37%8%
Reports on March 27 indicated Iran had reinforced Kharg Island's defenses with man-portable air-defense systems, maintaining control despite US military pressure. This reassured markets that Iran retained control, contributing to a price decline for the 'Yes' outcome.
Iran strengthens air defenses on Kharg Island amid U.S. military pressure
June 30 drops to 37%8%
Reports on March 26 revealed Iran had reinforced Kharg Island's defenses with man-portable air-defense systems and additional military personnel, signaling preparation against potential U.S. ground operations. This bolstered Iranian control and reduced market expectations of a U.S. takeover.
Iran strengthens Kharg Island defenses amid US airstrikes
June 30 dips to 45%3%
Following US airstrikes on March 13 targeting Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, Iran reinforced its defenses with man-portable air-defense systems and additional troops, signaling preparation against possible US ground operations. This reduced market confidence in a quick loss of Iranian control.
Iran Deploys MANPADS to Kharg Island as Oil Loading Continues
June 30 dips to 41%4%
Reports confirmed Iran strengthened its air defenses on the island with man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) while successfully continuing crude oil loading operations, signaling resilient control.
Iran strengthens defenses on Kharg Island amid US military threats
June 30 drops to 30%6%
US intelligence reports revealed Iran had bolstered Kharg Island's air defenses with man-portable air-defense systems and increased military personnel, signaling preparation against potential US ground operations. This reinforcement reduced market confidence in a US takeover by June 30.
US plans potential seizure of Kharg Island amid troop deployments
June 30 drops to 39%6%
Reports emerged of US military planning to seize Kharg Island to control Iran's oil exports, with deployments of troops including the 82nd Airborne Division and amphibious assault ships. Despite these plans, no ground operation occurred, and the high risks of occupation kept market probabilities low.
Iran Reinforces Kharg Island Defenses with MANPADS and Personnel
June 30 drops to 37%8%
Intelligence reports revealed that Iran had significantly bolstered its military presence and air defenses on Kharg Island, raising the potential cost of any U.S. ground assault.
Experts warn seizing Kharg Island would be difficult and costly for US troops
June 30 drops to 37%8%
Military experts and analysts cautioned that a US ground operation to seize Kharg Island would be hard to execute and hold, with high risks and unlikely to decisively end the conflict. This tempered market optimism about a quick US takeover, contributing to a price decline.
U.S. Military Evaluates Seizure of Iran's Kharg Island Amid Troop Deployments
June 30 drops to 43%5%
Reports emerged that U.S. military planners were evaluating a potential seizure of Kharg Island using helicopter and tilt-rotor deployments, causing temporary market volatility as traders weighed the likelihood of a ground invasion.
Iran bolsters Kharg Island defenses with troops and new air‑defence systems
June 30 drops to 38%10%
CNN reported that Iran had moved additional troops and installed new air‑defence systems on Kharg Island, citing US intelligence. The visible strengthening of Iranian defenses lowered the market’s probability that the United States could seize the island, pushing the ‘Yes’ price sharply down.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island against potential US ground attack
June 30 drops to 32%7%
Iran increased military personnel, air defenses, and laid traps on Kharg Island in anticipation of a possible US ground operation, signaling strong Iranian intent to retain control and complicate any US seizure attempt, which dampened market expectations of a US takeover.
U.S. Military Evaluates Low-Altitude Air Assault Plan to Seize Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 45%3%
Reports emerged that U.S. military planners were accelerating troop deployments and evaluating a low-altitude helicopter and tilt-rotor insertion to seize Kharg Island. This kept the probability of a physical takeover high as the market weighed the imminent threat of a ground campaign.
Iran strengthens Kharg Island defenses amid US invasion fears
June 30 drops to 40%6%
Iran reinforced Kharg Island with additional military personnel, air defenses including MANPADS, and laid traps in anticipation of a possible US ground operation, reducing the likelihood of a quick US seizure and causing market prices to decline.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island defenses against potential US ground attack
June 30 drops to 18%12%
Iran moved additional military personnel, air defenses including MANPADS, and laid traps on Kharg Island in anticipation of a possible US ground operation. This bolstered Iranian control and reduced market confidence in a US seizure, contributing to further price decline.
Iran reinforces Kharg Island with additional troops, air defenses, and mines
June 30 drops to 39%5%
In response to U.S. threats and airstrikes, Iran increased its military presence on Kharg Island by deploying more personnel, man-portable air-defense systems, and laying mines. This fortification raised the difficulty of any U.S. ground operation and contributed to declining market confidence in a change of control.
Iran Fortifies Kharg Island Defenses to Counter Potential US Ground Assault
June 30 dips to 45%3%
U.S. intelligence reports revealed that Iran reinforced Kharg Island with additional military personnel, air defenses, and shoreline mines, raising the stakes and risks of any potential U.S. seizure operation.
Iran Bolsters Defenses on Kharg Island to Counter Potential US Ground Assault
June 30 dips to 46%2%
U.S. intelligence reports revealed that Iran reinforced Kharg Island with additional military personnel, air defenses, and shoreline mines, raising the stakes and risks of any potential U.S. seizure operation.
Iran fortifies Kharg Island with troops and air defenses amid US ground attack fears
June 30 drops to 36%12%
Iran increased military personnel, laid traps, and deployed air defense systems on Kharg Island in response to US plans for a possible ground operation to seize the island. This buildup indicated Iran's intent to maintain control, impacting market confidence in a US takeover.
Iran strengthens defenses on Kharg Island amid U.S. invasion concerns
June 30 drops to 28%9%
Reports on March 25, 2026, indicated Iran was reinforcing military personnel and air defenses on Kharg Island in preparation for a possible U.S. ground operation. This buildup suggested Iran's intent to maintain control, increasing doubts about a U.S. seizure and contributing to further market price decline.
Iran builds up defenses on Kharg Island anticipating possible U.S. ground attack
June 30 drops to 30%7%
Iran moved additional military personnel, air defenses, and laid traps on Kharg Island in preparation for a potential U.S. operation to seize the island. This bolstered Iranian control and reduced market confidence in a U.S. seizure, contributing to a price decline.
Discussions emerge about U.S. Marines seizing Kharg Island to pressure Iran
June 30 rises to 45%1%
Reports surfaced about potential U.S. plans to use Marines to seize Kharg Island to cripple Iran's oil exports and force reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This raised market optimism but also highlighted risks, causing initial price volatility.
Discussion intensifies on seizing Kharg Island to pressure Iran
June 30 dips to 45%3%
On March 24, 2026, discussions emerged about using U.S. Marines to seize Kharg Island to cripple Iran's oil exports and force reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This raised market hopes but also highlighted the risks involved, causing initial price volatility.
Discussions emerge about US Marines seizing Kharg Island to pressure Iran
June 30 dips to 45%3%
On March 24, 2026, reports surfaced about U.S. military considerations to seize Kharg Island to cripple Iran's oil exports and force reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This raised market hopes and caused initial price volatility, increasing the probability of loss of Iranian control.
Experts warn seizing Kharg Island risks U.S. lives and may not end Iran war
June 30 drops to 39%9%
Military experts cautioned that capturing Kharg Island would be difficult to hold and might not force Iran to capitulate, tempering market optimism about a quick U.S. victory and contributing to a price decline.
U.S. military and political leaders discuss options including seizing Kharg Island
June 30 dips to 44%4%
Discussions within the White House and Pentagon included military control of Kharg Island as a potential strategy to force Iran to comply, but no ground operation was launched, keeping the island under Iranian control and causing market uncertainty.
Iran strengthens Kharg Island defenses amid US ground operation concerns
June 30 dips to 45%3%
Reports emerged that Iran had moved additional military personnel, deployed air defenses, and laid traps on Kharg Island in anticipation of a possible U.S. ground operation, raising the risks and reducing market confidence in a loss of Iranian control.
US discusses seizing Kharg Island to pressure Iran
June 30 dips to 44%4%
Reports emerged of US military considerations to seize Kharg Island to cripple Iran's oil exports and force reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This raised the market's probability as it suggested a possible change in control.
US President Trump considers seizing Kharg Island but faces expert warnings
June 30 drops to 37%8%
President Trump considered deploying ground troops to seize Kharg Island, but experts warned of high risks to US troops and questioned the strategic value, leading to market uncertainty and a price decline.
Reports of Iran reinforcing Kharg Island with troops and air defenses
June 30 drops to 37%11%
US intelligence revealed Iran had moved additional military personnel and installed new air-defense systems on Kharg Island, increasing the difficulty of any US ground operation and causing a sharp drop in market confidence for a loss of Iranian control.
Reports emerge of Iran reinforcing Kharg Island defenses against possible US ground operation
June 30 drops to 38%10%
US intelligence revealed Iran had moved additional military personnel, deployed air defenses, and laid traps on Kharg Island, increasing risks for a US seizure and lowering market confidence in loss of Iranian control.
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