Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination anchors trader consensus around his continued leadership through year-end. The unanimous or near-unanimous vote reflected institutional preference for continuity, bolstered by Mojtaba’s established ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and his father’s office amid wartime conditions. Other contenders such as Alireza Arafi, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and Hassan Khomeini register far lower probabilities due to limited institutional backing or prior exclusion from the final process. Recent low public visibility for Mojtaba, including absence from key July events, has raised questions about health or authority without materially altering the lead, while structural barriers including constitutional requirements and regime cohesion limit rapid shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?
Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?
Mojtaba Khamenei 84.0%
Reza Pahlavi 3.3%
Alireza Arafi 3.3%
Brak głowy państwa 2.6%
$37,546,242 Wol.
$37,546,242 Wol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
84%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
3%
Brak głowy państwa
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Radżawi
<1%
Massoud Radżawi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmud Ahmadineżad
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 84.0%
Reza Pahlavi 3.3%
Alireza Arafi 3.3%
Brak głowy państwa 2.6%
$37,546,242 Wol.
$37,546,242 Wol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
84%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
3%
Brak głowy państwa
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Radżawi
<1%
Massoud Radżawi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmud Ahmadineżad
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination anchors trader consensus around his continued leadership through year-end. The unanimous or near-unanimous vote reflected institutional preference for continuity, bolstered by Mojtaba’s established ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and his father’s office amid wartime conditions. Other contenders such as Alireza Arafi, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and Hassan Khomeini register far lower probabilities due to limited institutional backing or prior exclusion from the final process. Recent low public visibility for Mojtaba, including absence from key July events, has raised questions about health or authority without materially altering the lead, while structural barriers including constitutional requirements and regime cohesion limit rapid shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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