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Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?

icon for Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?
Świat·Bliski Wschód

Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.9%

Brak głowy państwa 4.5%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Mahmud Ahmadineżad 1.6%

Polymarket

$39,283,380 Wol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.9%

Brak głowy państwa 4.5%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Mahmud Ahmadineżad 1.6%

Polymarket

$39,283,380 Wol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,454,260 Wol.

85%

Brak głowy państwa

$1,158,078 Wol.

5%

Reza Pahlavi

$677,757 Wol.

3%

Mahmud Ahmadineżad

$1,127,570 Wol.

2%

Alireza Arafi

$2,316,748 Wol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$779,575 Wol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,021,107 Wol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$945,421 Wol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$920,697 Wol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,433,763 Wol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$834,213 Wol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$440,966 Wol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$543,568 Wol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,152,538 Wol.

<1%

Massoud Radżawi

$403,778 Wol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,989 Wol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$148,378 Wol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$224,217 Wol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$205,488 Wol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$839,199 Wol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$440,154 Wol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,356,460 Wol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$243,156 Wol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$394,201 Wol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,210,568 Wol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$289,443 Wol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$263,223 Wol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$313,097 Wol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$350,037 Wol.

<1%

Maryam Radżawi

$863,867 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026 as Supreme Leader, following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, underpins the strong trader consensus for his continued tenure through year-end. The appointment consolidated authority around a figure with close IRGC ties amid active conflict, despite his lack of prior elected office or full grand ayatollah credentials. Subsequent reporting through August and early September 2026 indicates he retains effective control over security decisions and state institutions from secure locations while recovering from injuries, with written statements and delegated authority maintaining continuity. Low probabilities for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Masoud Pezeshkian, or Reza Pahlavi reflect the absence of verified challenges or regime shifts in the intervening months. Scheduled events like potential negotiations or military developments within the resolution window could still influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Wolumen
$39,283,380
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026 as Supreme Leader, following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, underpins the strong trader consensus for his continued tenure through year-end. The appointment consolidated authority around a figure with close IRGC ties amid active conflict, despite his lack of prior elected office or full grand ayatollah credentials. Subsequent reporting through August and early September 2026 indicates he retains effective control over security decisions and state institutions from secure locations while recovering from injuries, with written statements and delegated authority maintaining continuity. Low probabilities for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Masoud Pezeshkian, or Reza Pahlavi reflect the absence of verified challenges or regime shifts in the intervening months. Scheduled events like potential negotiations or military developments within the resolution window could still influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Wolumen
$39,283,380
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...

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Często zadawane pytania

"Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 32 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Mojtaba Khamenei" z 85%, za nim "Brak głowy państwa" z 5%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 85¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 85% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" wygenerował $39.3 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Feb 28, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?", przeglądaj 32 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" jest "Mojtaba Khamenei" z 85%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 85% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Brak głowy państwa" z 5%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.