Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while the IAEA reports ongoing denial of inspector access and loss of continuity over roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium. Iran has not resumed verified enrichment or weaponization activities amid the unresolved conflict, and no political decision to pursue a nuclear device has been confirmed by intelligence assessments. With only four months remaining before 2027, traders assign 95.8% probability to "No" based on these setbacks and stalled diplomacy. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected reconstitution of capabilities, a sudden Iranian policy reversal, or major de-escalation enabling rapid IAEA verification before year-end.