Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the short remaining timeframe, ongoing U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current intent for forcible unification, and persistent gaps in People's Liberation Army readiness following high-level purges. Taiwan's largest-ever Han Kuang drills in August, which test reservist mobilization, drone navigation systems resistant to electronic warfare, and relocation of arms production, reflect defensive preparations without triggering major Chinese escalation. Diplomatic exchanges, including Xi Jinping's warnings to the United States on handling the issue, have remained within established patterns of coercive pressure rather than crossing into invasion preparations. A realistic shift would require an abrupt miscalculation or major provocation within the narrow window, though current evidence points to continued gray-zone activities instead.