Ukraine’s presidential and parliamentary elections remain suspended under martial law, extended for the 19th time in May 2026 until August 2, 2026. Constitutional rules prohibit national votes during active conflict, and President Zelenskyy has tied any election call to a prior ceasefire plus verifiable security guarantees. A mid-May 2026 U.S.-backed push for voting passed without action, while domestic polling and cross-party agreement emphasize that the first post-war ballot requires at least six months after martial law ends to organize logistics for displaced voters and troops. These legal, security, and political barriers explain why traders currently see the highest probability attached to a call by the end of 2026, with earlier dates viewed as improbable absent major diplomatic progress.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPutin Rejects Zelenskyy's Call for Direct Face-to-Face Peace Talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed a direct letter from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calling for face-to-face talks, dampening hopes for a near-term diplomatic resolution that could end martial law.
Parliament rejects wartime election law, ending hopes for 2025‑26 vote
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Parliament finally rejected the draft wartime election law, confirming that no national election will be held before the market’s final cutoff date, driving the price to its lowest point.
Ukrainian parliament forms working group to explore holding presidential election during martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The Ukrainian parliament formed a working group to consider the possibility of holding presidential elections during martial law, signaling political discussion but no concrete scheduling, which maintained market skepticism about elections occurring before August 2026.
Working group to continue election talks through May, still no timeline
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
LIGA.net reported that the election working group would continue talks through the end of May and reaffirmed that elections could only start six months after a cease‑fire, reinforcing pessimism and pushing the “December 31 2026” price down to 11 %.
Martial law extended in Ukraine until August 2, 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and confirming no elections would be held in the first half of 2026, further depressing market prices.
Martial law extended until August 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Martial law in Ukraine was extended for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally preventing any national elections from being held before that date, which led to a sharp decline in market prices for elections in 2026.
Russia launches massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv including Oreshnik missile
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Russia conducted one of its largest missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, including the use of the hypersonic Oreshnik missile. This escalation underscored ongoing conflict and security risks, further diminishing prospects for elections in 2025 or early 2026.
Parliament postpones vote on wartime election law to later date
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%10%
Parliament scheduled a vote on the wartime election law for June, but the date was later postponed, further eroding confidence that elections would occur before the June 30 deadline.
Analysis confirms Ukraine could not hold wartime election on May 15, 2026
Operational and logistical challenges, including damaged polling stations, millions of citizens abroad, and ongoing martial law, made holding elections on May 15, 2026, impossible. This analysis reinforced market skepticism about elections occurring within the 2025 timeframe, sustaining low prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Ukraine's election commission confirms 75% polling stations functional, making May 15 election impossible
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Ukraine's deputy chief election commissioner stated that a quarter of polling stations are non-functional due to war, with many voters at the front or abroad, making the May 15, 2026 wartime election deadline unfeasible. This reinforced market expectations against elections by June 30, 2026.
Experts confirm elections impossible before August 2026 due to martial law and war conditions
Analyses by Ukrainian election experts and civil society organizations stated that elections cannot be held under current wartime conditions and martial law, with operational and security challenges making any election before August 2026 unfeasible, supporting the market's low pricing for election occurrence.
Analysts Highlight Operational Impossibility of Wartime Elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
Reports detailed the massive logistical and legal hurdles facing Ukrainian elections, noting that under a cross-party framework, no election can be called sooner than six months after martial law lifts, effectively pushing any potential vote past 2026.
Experts confirm May 15 deadline for wartime election was impossible
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Experts explained that due to martial law extension, displaced voters, and security risks, holding elections by May 15, 2026 was impossible. This official recognition of the impracticality of wartime elections further decreased market confidence in elections by mid-2026.
Working group agrees elections cannot be held in 2026, requires six months after ceasefire
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%9%
The official working group on elections concluded that elections should not be held in 2026, requiring at least six months after martial law is lifted and a ceasefire established before campaigning can begin, effectively ruling out elections in the market's timeframe and pushing prices down further.
Analysis confirms impossibility of holding wartime elections by May 15, 2026
Experts and election officials explained that due to martial law, displaced voters, damaged infrastructure, and ongoing conflict, holding elections by the May 15 deadline was impossible. This analysis further diminished market confidence in elections occurring within the 2025 timeframe.
Analysis confirms May 15 wartime election in Ukraine was impossible due to operational challenges
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
On May 21, 2026, analysis highlighted that a wartime election on May 15 was impossible due to factors like damaged polling stations, millions of displaced voters, and ongoing conflict. This reinforced market expectations that elections would not occur within the market's timeframe.
Why a 15 May Ukrainian election was impossible
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
A May‑21 analysis explained why a 15 May election was impossible, quoting CEC officials who said voting could only begin six months after martial law ends. The clarification hammered home the unlikelihood of any 2025‑26 election, dragging the “June 30 2026” price down to 1 % by month‑end.
Ukrainian parliament extends martial law until 2 August 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until 2 August 2026, confirming that elections remain prohibited. This reinforced the market’s view that no election would happen before the end of 2026, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability down to its low of 11 % by 2026‑06‑08.
Parliament extends martial law for 19th time, through Aug 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Parliament extended martial law for the 19th time (until 2 August 2026). The extension was reported on 20 May 2026 and caused the “December 31 2026” price to fall from 14 % to 11 % by 20 May, cementing the view that elections cannot happen before that date.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says progress in US-led peace talks is ‘quite solid’ but elections remain postponed
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%2%
Zelenskyy reported solid progress in peace talks with the US, incorporating many Ukrainian demands. However, elections remain postponed indefinitely due to martial law and ongoing conflict, with no official election date set within 2025, reinforcing market expectations against elections in that year.
Verkhovna Rada forms working group to prepare bill for elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
A special parliamentary working group was formed to draft legislation enabling presidential elections during martial law, indicating efforts to overcome legal barriers but with uncertain prospects, contributing to market uncertainty.
No official election scheduling; martial law still in effect
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%8%
Despite discussions and some political repositioning, no official scheduling of elections occurred and martial law remained in effect, leading to further decline in market prices for elections in 2025.
Zelenskyy meets with European leaders in London to discuss US peace plan and Ukrainian security
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%2%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with British, French, and German leaders to strengthen European support amid critical US-led peace talks. The discussions underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts but also highlighted unresolved issues, including the timing of elections, which remain postponed due to the war.
Martial law extended again until August 2026, blocking elections during this period
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%12%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period. This extension solidified market expectations that no elections would be held in 2025 or early 2026, driving probabilities to historic lows.
Party leaders signal elections in fall 2026 and spring 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%7%
Reports emerged that Ukrainian party leaders expect presidential elections in fall 2026 and parliamentary elections in spring 2027, indicating elections would not occur within the market's timeframe, causing further price declines.
Deadline for wartime elections lapses as Ukraine confirms logistical impossibility
June 30, 2026 drops to 1%11%
Ukraine's Central Election Commission and officials confirmed that holding elections by the US-imposed May 15 deadline was impossible due to logistical, security, and legal challenges, including displaced voters and ongoing conflict. This caused a sharp drop in market prices for elections by mid-2026.
U.S. deadline of 15 May for Ukrainian election deemed impossible
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Washington’s deadline of 15 May 2026 for a Ukrainian election, tied to the U.S. mid‑term elections, was widely reported as unattainable. The announcement of the missed deadline caused a sharp 12‑point swing on 13‑14 May, dropping the December‑31 price from 14 % to 10 % and the June‑30 price from 2 % to 1 %.
Zelenskyy signals uncertainty about running post-war, affecting election outlook
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%12%
On May 15, 2026, statements from President Zelenskyy about his readiness not to run again after the war's conclusion introduced uncertainty about the post-war election landscape. This contributed to market volatility and a temporary price increase before settling lower, reflecting doubts about election timing and candidates.
Sociologist Highlights Low Public Support for Wartime Elections at Lviv Media Forum
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%9%
Sociologist Tymofii Brik presented polling data showing that only 10% of Ukrainians support holding elections during the war, while the vast majority prefer waiting until after a ceasefire or a complete peace agreement.
Analysts speculate U.S. mid‑terms may boost pressure for Ukrainian elections
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%11%
U.S. mid‑term election chatter raised speculation that American pressure for a Ukrainian vote could increase, causing a short‑term rise in the December‑31‑2026 price (from 11 % on May 9 to 22 % on May 15) before the market corrected.
U.S.-Backed Deadline for Ukrainian Wartime Election Lapses Without a Vote
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%8%
The May 15, 2026, deadline pushed by Washington for Ukraine to hold a wartime presidential election passed without any vote, as operational realities and martial law made holding elections impossible.
Washington's May 15 Deadline for Ukrainian Wartime Election Lapses Without a Vote
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%8%
The highly publicized May 15, 2026, deadline pushed by Washington for Ukraine to hold wartime elections passed without any vote, causing a sharp drop in market prices as the timeline became impossible.
Ukraine confirms impossibility of wartime elections on May 15 deadline
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
On May 15, 2026, Ukrainian officials and experts publicly explained why elections could not be held during wartime due to operational challenges including martial law extension, displaced voters, and security risks. This reinforced market expectations that elections would not occur in 2025.
Ukraine's Central Election Commission rules out elections in 2026 due to war
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
The Central Election Commission concluded that elections cannot be held in 2026 because of ongoing war, security risks, and unresolved legal issues, reinforcing the market's view that elections in 2025-26 are unlikely, pushing prices lower.
Russian missile attack kills 24 in Kyiv apartment building amid ongoing war
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%2%
A deadly Russian missile strike on a Kyiv apartment building highlighted the ongoing conflict and instability in Ukraine, reinforcing the unlikelihood of national elections being held in 2025 due to the war's persistence and impact on civilian life.
President Zelenskyy states readiness to not run after war ends
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%12%
In an interview, President Zelenskyy expressed readiness to not seek re-election after the war, indicating political uncertainty and the likelihood that elections will be postponed until after martial law ends, which influenced a temporary market price increase reflecting speculation.
Zelenskyy stresses security guarantees are prerequisite for any election
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%13%
Zelenskyy reiterated the need for security guarantees before any election could be held, a reminder that election prospects remained remote, causing a brief price uptick before the subsequent decline.
Ukraine denies plans to announce elections and peace referendum soon
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%11%
President Zelensky denied reports that elections and a peace referendum would be announced imminently, reflecting ongoing military challenges and political caution, leading to a sharp market price drop.
Zelenskyy states readiness to hold elections if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%13%
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if the US and European allies ensured necessary security, but no official election scheduling occurred, causing a brief market price increase followed by decline.
Central Election Commission rules out elections in 2026 citing war risks and legal hurdles
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%13%
The Ukrainian Central Election Commission concluded that elections cannot be held in 2026 due to ongoing war, security risks, and unresolved legal issues, effectively ruling out elections within the market's timeframe and causing a sharp price drop.
KIIS poll shows modest increase in support for post‑war elections
December 31, 2026 jumps to 21%10%
A KIIS poll released on 13 May showed a modest rise in the share of Ukrainians supporting elections after a cease‑fire (from 23 % to 27 %). The slight optimism lifted the “December 31 2026” price back up to 21 %.
Former Zelenskyy aide accuses president of prioritizing power over elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Iuliia Mendel, former press secretary, accused Zelenskyy of prioritizing political survival over democratic processes amid rising election controversy. This criticism reflected growing domestic and international concerns about prolonged election postponement, contributing to market pessimism.
Former Press Secretary Accuses Zelenskyy of Prioritizing Power Over People
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Zelenskyy's former press secretary Iuliia Mendel accused him of prioritizing political survival over democratic processes, highlighting growing domestic and international friction over the prolonged postponement of elections.
Former Zelenskyy Press Secretary Accuses Him of Prioritizing Power Over Democratic Processes
December 31, 2026 jumps to 11%5%
Iuliia Mendel criticized President Zelenskyy for delaying elections, intensifying domestic and international debates over democratic legitimacy.
Former Zelenskyy aide accuses him of prioritizing power amid election delays
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Criticism intensified as former Zelenskyy press secretary accused the president of prioritizing political survival over democratic processes, reflecting domestic and international concerns about prolonged election postponement.
Ukraine Extends Martial Law for 19th Time Until August 2, 2026, Legally Prohibing Elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%7%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting any national presidential or parliamentary elections from being scheduled or held before that date.
Ukraine endures bitter winter after Russian attacks as peace efforts overshadowed
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
Severe Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grid during a harsh winter deepen humanitarian crises and highlight ongoing war conditions, reinforcing the indefinite postponement of elections and reducing market confidence in elections occurring in 2025.
Former Ukrainian army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%3%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former army chief and potential political rival, publicly disclosed tensions with Zelenskyy, highlighting political instability. This diminished confidence in the likelihood of elections being held in 2025, reflected in market price movements.
Zelenskyy states readiness to run if elections held during war, uncertain about peacetime run
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
President Zelenskyy indicated he would run if elections were held during the war but was unsure about running in peacetime, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about election timing and candidacy, which kept market confidence low.
President Zelenskyy ready to hold elections if security guaranteed, but uncertain about timing
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Zelenskyy stated readiness to hold elections within 60-90 days if security guarantees from US and European allies are provided, but uncertainty remained due to ongoing war and martial law, causing market fluctuations.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to hold elections during war with security guarantees
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
On December 9, 2025, Zelenskyy stated he was ready to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if the US and European allies ensured necessary security, but this remained conditional and did not override martial law restrictions. This statement caused minor market fluctuations but did not reverse the overall downward trend.
Orbán steps back after a landslide loss, vowing to rebuild Hungary’s ‘national side’
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
Following a significant election loss in Hungary, Orbán announced he would not take his parliamentary seat, reflecting political shifts in the region but no Ukrainian election developments, sustaining market uncertainty about Ukraine’s 2025 elections.
Ukraine Central Election Commission rules out elections in 2026 due to war risks
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
The Central Election Commission concluded that elections cannot be held in 2026 because of ongoing war, security risks, and unresolved legal issues. This official position further diminished market expectations for elections within the market timeframe.
Martial law extended again until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 6%8%
Ukraine's parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally preventing any national elections from being held before that date and reinforcing market expectations against 2026 elections.
Martial law extended again until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 8%12%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 19th time, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and confirming no elections would be held in 2025 or early 2026, leading to a sharp decline in market prices for election occurrence.
Martial law extended again, elections remain legally barred
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%6%
Martial law was extended for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and confirming no elections would be held in 2025 or early 2026, causing market prices for election occurrence to fall to historic lows.
Ukrainian Parliament Extends Martial Law and Mobilization Until August 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 6%5%
The Verkhovna Rada approved the 19th extension of martial law in Ukraine, extending it until August 2, 2026. Because Ukrainian law prohibits holding presidential or parliamentary elections while martial law is in effect, this extension pushed the earliest possible election date further out, causing the probability of a 2026 election to drop.
Ukraine Extends Martial Law for 19th Time, Legally Prohibiting Elections Until August 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 6%3%
The extension of martial law in Ukraine for the 19th time legally prohibited any national elections from being scheduled or held before August 2, 2026, driving down market expectations.
Central Election Commission confirms martial‑law extension to August 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 7%6%
The CEC reported that martial law would be extended again until 2 August 2026, confirming that elections cannot be scheduled before that date. This final confirmation pushed the “Yes” price for the December‑31‑2026 outcome down to its low of 7 % on 6 May 2026.
Ukrainian parliament extends martial law until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting elections
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%19%
The Verkhovna Rada extended martial law for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, which under Ukrainian law prohibits national elections during this period, confirming no elections would be held in 2025 or early 2026 and causing market prices to fall sharply.
US-led peace efforts continue amid stalled Ukraine-Russia negotiations
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%4%
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and peace proposals involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US, no breakthrough was achieved to enable elections in 2025, maintaining market skepticism and low prices for election outcomes.
Ukrainian parliament extends martial law for 19th time until August 2, 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
The Verkhovna Rada approved the 19th extension of martial law, legally barring presidential and parliamentary elections during this period. This extension reinforced the legal prohibition on elections in 2025 and early 2026, further depressing market prices for election occurrence.
Parliament formally extends martial law and mobilisation to 2 August 2026
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%22%
The Verkhovna Rada voted to approve the extension of martial law and mobilisation for a further 90 days, officially confirming that the legal prohibition on elections remains in force through August 2026. This vote cemented market expectations of a ‘No’ outcome, pushing the Yes‑probability for the December‑2026 option down to single‑digit levels.
Martial law extended in Ukraine until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 8%6%
Martial law, which legally prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections, was extended for the 19th time until August 2, 2026. This extension confirmed that elections could not be held within the market's timeframe, leading to a further decline in election probability prices.
Martial law extended until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%7%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting elections during this period and confirming no elections would be held in the first half of 2026, pushing market prices lower.
Martial law extended again until August 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%12%
Martial law in Ukraine was extended for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and effectively ruling out elections in 2025 and early 2026, driving market probabilities down sharply.
Ukrainian parliament extends martial law until August 2, 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
The Verkhovna Rada extended martial law for the 19th time, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and confirming no elections would be held in 2025 or early 2026. This extension caused a sharp decline in market prices for election occurrence.
Parliament extends martial law until Aug 2, 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until 2 August 2026. The extension reminded markets that elections remain illegal under martial law, contributing to the continued low “June 30 2026” price (1 % by 29 May).
Ukrainian parliament extends martial law to Aug 2, 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%11%
Parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until 2 August 2026, confirming that elections remain prohibited under the current legal regime. The extension extinguished any remaining optimism for a 2025‑2026 vote, pushing the December‑31 price sharply down to 10 % and the June‑30 price to 2 %.
Zelenskyy Signs Bills Extending Martial Law and Mobilization
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
President Zelenskyy signed the approved bills into law, officially extending martial law until August 2, 2026. This final signature confirmed that no electoral preparations could legally begin until late summer at the earliest.
Zelenskyy signs decrees extending martial law and mobilization for another 3 months
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
President Zelenskyy signed bills extending martial law and general mobilization from May 4, 2026, for another 90 days, reinforcing the legal barrier to holding elections within the market timeframe and contributing to the market price decline.
Ukraine extends martial law until August 2, 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%8%
The Verkhovna Rada extended martial law and general mobilization for the 19th time, prolonging it until August 2, 2026. This extension legally prevents national elections from being held during this period, significantly reducing the likelihood of elections in 2025 or early 2026.
Parliament extends martial law until August 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
TASS reported that the Verkhovna Rada extended martial law for the 19th time until 2 August 2026. The extension reinforced the legal barrier to any election, pushing the “December 31 2026” price down to its April‑low and the “June 30 2026” price toward its minimum.
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law and mobilization until August 2, 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
The Ukrainian parliament officially extended martial law and mobilization for the 19th time, solidifying the legal framework that prohibits elections during martial law. This legislative action confirmed the postponement of elections, contributing to continued low market confidence in elections occurring within 2025.
Putin Warns of Security Threats Ahead of September 2026 Elections in Occupied Ukrainian Territories
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%4%
Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the need to secure voting in occupied regions of Ukraine for Russia's September 2026 elections, highlighting the ongoing conflict and making Ukrainian national elections highly unlikely.
President Zelenskyy submits legislation to extend martial law and general mobilization
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%10%
President Zelenskyy submitted bills to the Verkhovna Rada to extend martial law and general mobilization, continuing wartime authorities that suspend elections and restrict political activities. This legislative move reinforced the legal and practical barriers to holding elections in 2025.
Putin states Ukraine does not hold elections under martial law and prevents elections in Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly noted that Ukraine is not holding elections due to martial law and accused Ukraine of preventing elections in Russia. This statement highlighted the ongoing political situation and martial law's impact on elections, reinforcing market expectations of no elections in 2025.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy submits legislation to extend martial law until August 2, 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
President Zelenskyy submitted bills to extend martial law and general mobilization for 90 days until August 2, 2026. This extension legally prohibits holding national elections during this period, directly impacting the market by reducing the likelihood of elections before June 30, 2026.
Putin warns of terrorist threats ahead of Russia’s 2026 elections, citing Ukraine’s actions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
Russian President Putin claimed Ukraine and its supporters resorted to 'terrorist methods' due to battlefield setbacks, emphasizing ongoing conflict and instability that indirectly affect Ukraine’s election prospects by prolonging martial law.
Ukrainian parliament extends martial law and general mobilization for 90 days
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%7%
The Verkhovna Rada approved President Zelenskyy's proposal to extend martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days starting May 4, 2026. This extension legally barred any national elections from being held until at least August 2, 2026, driving down the market probability for the June 30 and December 31, 2026 contracts.
Verkhovna Rada Approves Extension of Martial Law and Mobilization
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
The Ukrainian parliament voted overwhelmingly to approve the extension of martial law and mobilization until August 2, 2026. This official legislative action solidified the legal ban on holding any national elections during this period.
Zelenskyy submits legislation to extend martial law until August 2, 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%6%
President Zelenskyy submitted bills to extend martial law and general mobilization, which legally suspend elections and restrict political activities. This 19th extension of martial law confirmed that elections could not be held in 2025 or early 2026, causing market prices for election occurrence to fall sharply.
Central Election Commission Rules Out Elections in 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%8%
The Central Election Commission concluded that holding elections in 2026 is impossible due to security risks, ongoing war, and legal gaps, driving the market odds for both 2026 outcomes toward zero.
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law and mobilization until August 2, 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%10%
The Ukrainian parliament voted to extend martial law and general mobilization for 90 days, until August 2, 2026. This extension legally prohibits holding national elections during this period, directly impacting the market's assessment of elections occurring in 2025.
Zelenskyy submits bills to extend martial law and mobilisation for 90 days
June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%27%
Zelenskyy submitted draft laws (Nos 15197/15198) to extend martial law and general mobilisation for another 90 days, until 2 August 2026. Because martial law legally bars any national election, the market interpreted the submission as a strong signal that elections could not be held before the end of August, causing a sharp drop in both outcome prices.
Ukrainian parliament extends martial law and mobilization until August 2, 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
On April 27, 2026, the Verkhovna Rada extended martial law and mobilization for 90 days until August 2, 2026, legally preventing elections during this period and reinforcing the market's downward price movement for election occurrence before June 30, 2026.
Zelenskyy Proposes to Extend Martial Law and Mobilization Until August 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%6%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy registered bills in the Verkhovna Rada to extend martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days starting May 4, 2026. This move signaled that elections would remain legally suspended through at least early August 2026, driving down the probability of a 2026 election.
Zelenskyy proposes extending martial law and mobilization until August 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%10%
President Zelenskyy submitted bills to extend martial law and general mobilization for 90 days until August 2, 2026, reinforcing the legal barrier against holding elections during this period. This extension maintained the suspension of elections, causing market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome to drop sharply from 20% to 10%.
Parliament debates amendment to allow voting abroad under martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Parliament voted on a amendment to the electoral code allowing voting abroad, but the measure stalled, reinforcing market pessimism about any election before 2026.
Ukraine Central Election Commission Rules Out Elections in 2026 Citing War Risks
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%12%
The Central Election Commission concluded that holding elections in 2026 is impossible due to security risks and legal gaps, causing a sharp drop in market prices.
Poll shows just 10 % of Ukrainians favour elections before cease‑fire
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%4%
OPORA released a poll showing only 10 % of Ukrainians support voting before a cease‑fire. The low public appetite contributed to the final slide of the December‑31‑2026 price to 11 % on May 28.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law, pledges post-war presidential election
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
On February 26, 2025, the Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold a presidential election only after the war's conclusion. This reinforced legal and political barriers to elections in 2025 and early 2026, causing market prices for elections by June and December 2026 to drop.
Martial law extended again until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%9%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 19th time, legally prohibiting elections during this period and significantly reducing the likelihood of elections in 2025, causing market prices to drop sharply.
Parliamentary working group rules out 2026 elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%13%
The parliamentary working group publicly ruled out any presidential vote in 2026, stating that a cease‑fire and a six‑month preparation period were required. The announcement pushed the “December 31 2026” price down sharply from 22 % to 9 % that day.
Ukrainian Orthodox Patriarch Filaret dies at 97
The death of a prominent religious leader who symbolized Ukrainian independence added a somber note to the national mood, further eroding market optimism about a stable election environment.
Ukrainian parliament reaffirms no elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%8%
The Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold elections only after the war's conclusion, reinforcing the legal and political barriers to elections in 2025 or early 2026, which led to a sharp market price decline.
Ukraine extends martial law through 4 May 2026, limiting election options
Reports that martial law was extended again to 4 May 2026 underscored that elections could not legally occur before the law’s expiry, confirming the market’s lowest point.
Martial law extended again until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%11%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and confirming no elections would be held in 2025 or early 2026, causing market prices to drop sharply.
Martial law extended in Ukraine until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%8%
Martial law in Ukraine was extended for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period. This extension was a critical barrier to holding elections within the market's resolution window, causing a sharp drop in election probability prices.
Hungary suspends diesel shipments to Ukraine over pipeline dispute
Hungary halted diesel deliveries after Russian attacks on the Druzhba pipeline, heightening energy insecurity for Ukraine and prompting an 11‑point market plunge as election feasibility seemed further compromised.
Parliament adopts draft law pushing earliest election to August 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%7%
Parliament approved a draft law setting the earliest possible election date to August 2026, effectively ruling out any 2025‑26 election. The market’s “Yes” price for the December‑31‑2026 outcome fell sharply from 20 % to 13 % the next day.
Central Election Commission resumes operation of State Voter Register
The resumption of the voter register's operation by Ukraine's Central Election Commission indicated administrative preparation for future elections, but ongoing conflict kept market confidence low.
Zelenskyy announces postponement of 2025 election timetable amid ongoing war
Facing continued military pressure and no ratified security guarantees, Zelenskyy publicly stated that the 2025 national elections would be delayed, confirming market expectations of a ‘No’ outcome and pushing prices to their lowest points.
European and Canadian leaders discuss U.S.-led peace efforts in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
European and Canadian leaders held talks on U.S.-led peace efforts, reaffirming support for Ukraine’s sovereignty but with no elections scheduled in 2025, sustaining market doubts about election timing.
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law until August 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%11%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and confirming that no elections would be held in 2025 or early 2026. This extension caused a significant drop in market prices for elections occurring within the market timeframe.
Martial law extended again until August 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%8%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and further reducing the likelihood of elections in 2025 or early 2026.
Zelenskyy calls for election law reforms to allow voting under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%5%
President Zelenskyy urged parliament to draft legislation enabling elections during martial law, signaling willingness to hold elections if security conditions improve. Despite this, market confidence remained low due to ongoing conflict and legal hurdles.
Martial law in Ukraine extended until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Ukraine's parliament approved the 19th extension of martial law until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and significantly reducing the likelihood of elections occurring before mid-2026, causing market prices for election occurrence to drop.
Ukraine’s political crisis deepens amid war and corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 drops to 8%11%
The political crisis in Ukraine intensified with protests and calls for a coalition government, undermining the stability needed to hold national elections in 2025. The market reacted with a further decline in the probability of elections occurring within the specified timeframe.
Hungary election removes Ukraine's staunchest EU foe, easing Kyiv's funding prospects
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%7%
Hungary's parliamentary election resulted in the defeat of Viktor Orban, a critic of EU sanctions on Russia and Ukraine's harshest EU foe. This outcome was welcomed by Ukraine as it paved the way for a crucial 90 billion euro loan to fund the war, indirectly affecting Ukraine's political and security environment but not enabling elections within 2025-26.
Hungary sets April 12 election date as Orbán faces tough challenge
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Hungary scheduled its parliamentary election for April 12, 2026, indicating regional political activity but no Ukrainian election scheduling, maintaining market doubts about Ukraine’s 2025 elections.
Poll shows 59% of Ukrainians want to wait until war ends for elections
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
A poll revealed that a majority of Ukrainians preferred postponing elections until after the war, reflecting public sentiment against holding elections under martial law. This sentiment supported the market's declining probability of elections in 2026.
Russian drone attacks severely damage Ukraine’s power grid during winter
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%6%
Russia’s intensified drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure caused widespread blackouts and hardship, underscoring the ongoing conflict and reducing likelihood of elections in 2025, reflected in market price drops.
Officials acknowledge elections could occur even if war continues, a shift in stance
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%4%
Sources within the Office of the President acknowledged elections might be held during ongoing conflict, a departure from previous positions requiring war end. However, legal and security challenges remain, keeping market probabilities low.
Ukraine’s political pressure mounts amid corruption scandal and war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
President Zelenskyy faced growing political pressure from a corruption scandal and the ongoing war, complicating his ability to push through peace deals or organize elections. The unstable political environment further reduced the likelihood of elections being held in 2025.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law, pledges post-war presidential election
Ukraine’s parliament passed a resolution on February 26, 2025, reaffirming elections cannot be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections after the war. Martial law extensions through August 2026 maintain the ban, keeping elections postponed and market prices low.
U.S. officials say peace talks unlikely to conclude before summer
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
A senior U.S. diplomat stated that the Abu Dhabi negotiations were not expected to produce a deal before the summer, dampening hopes for an election timetable and driving prices lower.
European Union approves €90 billion loan package for Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
The European Parliament approved a €90 billion loan package to support Ukraine's financial needs for 2026 and 2027, improving fiscal outlook but not affecting the legal prohibition on elections during martial law, thus having limited impact on election market prices.
EU approves €90 billion loan for Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%4%
The EU announced a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine on April 2, improving fiscal outlook but not altering the legal barrier to voting under martial law. The market reacted with a brief rally for the December‑31‑2026 outcome (from 11 % on Apr 2 to 15 % on Apr 22).
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Ukraine’s allies outlined security guarantees as part of a peace plan, indicating progress in diplomacy but no immediate resolution to the war or election scheduling. The ongoing conflict and lack of election scheduling maintain market skepticism about elections in 2025.
U.S. pushes Ukraine for elections before summer peace deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%4%
Reuters covered a statement that the United States was pressing Ukraine to hold elections before a summer peace deal, reviving expectations of an early vote and nudging the “December 31, 2026” price up from 17 % on 2026‑03‑18 to 21 % on 2026‑04‑01.
Zelensky denies imminent election announcement without security guarantees
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
President Zelenskyy publicly denied reports of an imminent election announcement, emphasizing that elections would only be held after appropriate security guarantees, which dampened market optimism about near-term elections.
International IDEA round‑table reviews post‑war election legislation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
A round‑table on post‑war election preparation was held, indicating that lawmakers were still drafting legislation. The news added a modest uptick from 11 % to 13 % in the “December 31 2026” price on 31 Mar 2026, reflecting slight renewed hope for a later‑year election.
US military delegation arrives in Kyiv amid Ukraine political crisis
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%5%
A high-level US military delegation arrived in Kyiv to revive peace efforts while Ukraine faced a $100 million corruption scandal weakening President Zelenskyy's government. The ongoing war and political turmoil reduced confidence in holding national elections in 2025, impacting the market's outlook on election occurrence.
Declassified report alleges Ukrainian officials plotted to divert US aid for Biden reelection
Newly declassified intelligence revealed alleged plans by Ukrainian officials to redirect US aid funds to support Joe Biden's 2024 reelection campaign, raising concerns about corruption and political instability in Ukraine, which could undermine election credibility and timing.
Ukrainian officials report renewed Russian attacks on power grid
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%8%
Escalation of Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure raised doubts about a near‑term ceasefire, further lowering expectations for elections.
Working group agrees election campaign can only start six months after ceasefire, ruling out 2026 vote
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
A specialized working group concluded that the pre-election period must begin only after a ceasefire and legislative adoption, effectively ruling out presidential elections in 2026 and confirming market expectations of delay.
Market hits low as prospects for 2025 elections fade
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
With no official steps taken toward organizing elections and the war continuing, the market reached its lowest point, reflecting the consensus that elections would not be held in 2025.
Central Election Commission confirms no presidential elections in 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 6%2%
In March 2026, the Ukrainian Central Election Commission publicly stated that elections cannot be held in 2026 due to ongoing martial law and security concerns, reinforcing the market's expectation that elections will be postponed beyond the market's resolution window.
Parliamentary Subgroups Present Findings on Post-War Election Challenges
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
Lawmakers and electoral authorities gathered in Kyiv to present legislative proposals on organizing post-war elections, reinforcing that extensive preparation and security criteria are required before any vote.
Ukrainian parliament rejects early election bill
June 30, 2026 drops to 1%7%
The Verkhovna Rada voted down a proposal to move the election date forward, confirming that no legislative path exists for a 2025 election and pushing market prices lower.
Roundtable on post-war election preparations held in Kyiv
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%4%
Ukrainian lawmakers and international partners presented legislative proposals and organizational challenges for post-war elections, signaling focus on elections after conflict ends rather than in 2025, reinforcing market skepticism about near-term elections.
Verkhovna Rada Working Group Presents Findings on Post-War Elections
A parliamentary roundtable presented legislative proposals for post-war elections, emphasizing that security criteria and legal frameworks must be resolved first, reinforcing that wartime elections are legally and logistically unfeasible.
Ukrainian lawmakers and civil society present findings on post-war election challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%2%
A parliamentary working group presented outcomes on the organizational and security challenges of holding post-war elections, reinforcing that significant legal and practical hurdles remain unresolved.
Parliamentary subgroups present election‑law findings at Kyiv roundtable
December 31, 2026 dips to 40%1%
A round‑table convened by International IDEA presented findings of the working group on election legislation, keeping the discussion alive and preventing further price decline for the “December 31 2026” option, which stabilized around 40 % after a brief dip.
Ukrainian Working Group Presents Findings on Post-War Election Challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%4%
A parliamentary working group presented legislative proposals on organizing post-war elections, reinforcing that extensive preparation and a peaceful period are required before any vote can occur.
Ukrainian lawmakers unveil draft law for post‑war elections
June 30, 2026 jumps to 17%11%
A parliamentary working group presented legislative proposals for post‑war elections, signalling concrete preparation despite martial law. The news lifted the June‑30 price to a short‑term peak of 17 % on 20 Mar before the legal hurdles re‑asserted themselves, driving the price back down.
Ukrainian lawmakers present legislative proposals for post-war elections
On March 20, 2026, Ukrainian lawmakers and international partners presented outcomes of a working group focused on organizing elections during a special period or post-war, indicating preparations for elections after the war rather than in 2025. This reinforced market expectations that elections would not occur within the 2025 window.
Ukrainian parliament passes anti‑corruption reforms amid scandal
Legislators approved measures to address a $100 million corruption scandal, temporarily boosting confidence that governance could stabilize enough for elections, reflected in a modest price rise.
International IDEA round‑table outlines post‑war election legislation
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%2%
A round‑table organized by International IDEA presented legislative proposals for post‑war elections, signalling that election planning remains tentative and postponing expectations, which helped keep the market’s “Yes” probability low.
Parliamentary working group presents legislative proposals for post-war elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%2%
Ukrainian lawmakers and partners presented outcomes of a working group on organizing elections during special/post-war periods, indicating progress on legal frameworks but no immediate election scheduling, maintaining market uncertainty.
Ukrainian lawmakers present findings on legal framework for post-war elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%4%
A parliamentary working group presented comprehensive legislative proposals on organizing elections during special periods or post-war, indicating preparations for elections but not their immediate occurrence, maintaining market skepticism about 2025 elections.
Parliamentary Subgroups Present Findings on Post-War Election Framework
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%4%
Ukrainian lawmakers and international partners met in Kyiv to discuss the legal and security criteria required for organizing the first national post-war elections.
Ukrainian parliament working group advances election legislation under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
The Verkhovna Rada formed a special working group to prepare a bill on holding presidential elections under martial law, holding its first session in late December 2025 and continuing discussions into 2026. This indicated some legislative progress but no immediate election scheduling, sustaining market uncertainty.
Ukrainian parliamentary working group presents draft election legislation
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%4%
A parliamentary working group presented outcomes on organizing elections during special periods, including wartime, focusing on security criteria and electoral rights, indicating ongoing legislative efforts but no immediate election scheduling.
Ukrainian lawmakers and partners present findings on post-war election preparations
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%4%
A roundtable in Kyiv presented results from a parliamentary working group on organizing elections during special periods or post-war, highlighting ongoing efforts to develop security criteria and legislative frameworks, but also underscoring unresolved political decisions and security challenges, maintaining market uncertainty.
Parliamentary working group presents draft post‑war election law
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%2%
Carnegie reported a round‑table where lawmakers presented draft legislation on post‑war elections. The discussion highlighted technical and security hurdles, causing the “December 31 2026” price to retreat to a low on 4‑Mar and the “June 30 2026” price to fall sharply.
Ukrainian Lawmakers and Partners Hold Roundtable on Post-War Election Preparedness
A high-level roundtable in Kyiv presented legislative proposals and security criteria for organizing the first national post-war elections.
Central Election Commission rules out elections in 2026 due to ongoing war and security risks
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Ukraine's Central Election Commission concluded that elections could not be held in 2026 because of the ongoing conflict, unresolved legal frameworks, and security concerns, effectively ruling out elections within the market's timeframe.
Ukraine Working Group Rules Out Presidential Elections in 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%1%
A specialized parliamentary working group concluded that Ukraine cannot hold elections in 2026 due to security risks, legal gaps under martial law, and the requirement of a six-month preparation period post-ceasefire.
Ukraine’s post‑war elections: parliamentary subgroups present key findings at roundtable
December 31, 2026 jumps to 27%5%
A round‑table in Kyiv presented findings of parliamentary subgroups on post‑war election preparation. The detailed legislative work raised expectations of a realistic election timetable, prompting the price to rebound to 27 % on Mar 4 and stay above 20 % thereafter.
Working group says elections impossible before six‑month post‑martial‑law period
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%6%
A working‑group meeting concluded that elections could not be held before a six‑month post‑law period, effectively ruling out any 2026 election. The market reacted with a modest decline in the “Yes” price for the June‑30‑2026 outcome from 12 % to 6 % on 21 March 2026.
Parliamentary working group unveils draft post‑war election bill
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%4%
A parliamentary working group presented a draft bill on post‑war elections, signalling progress but also highlighting that no concrete timetable existed. The news halted the recent decline, nudging the “December 31, 2026” price up a few points.
Reports indicate presidential election likely in fall 2026, parliamentary in spring 2027
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%2%
Media reports cited Ukrainian officials discussing presidential elections in fall 2026 and parliamentary elections in spring 2027, suggesting elections would not occur within the 2025 window, leading to further market price declines for 2026 election outcomes.
Parliamentary Working Group Presents Legislative Proposals for Post-War Elections
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%4%
Ukrainian lawmakers and international partners gathered in Kyiv to present outcomes of the working group preparing the legal framework for post-war elections, reinforcing that voting is being planned for the post-conflict period rather than during active hostilities.
Ukrainian lawmakers present post-war election preparations
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
On March 20, 2026, Ukrainian lawmakers, electoral authorities, civil society, and international partners presented outcomes of a working group preparing legislative proposals for organizing elections during a special period or post-war, signaling technical preparation but not immediate elections.
Ukrainian parliament and partners present legislative proposals for post-war elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
A roundtable in Kyiv presented comprehensive legislative proposals on organizing elections during special periods or post-war, signaling progress in election preparations but confirming elections would not occur imminently under martial law.
Ukrainian lawmakers present proposals for post-war elections
A parliamentary working group presented legislative proposals on organizing elections during a special period or post-war, indicating preparation but no immediate election date, reflecting ongoing legal and security challenges.
Ukraine Specialized Working Group Rules Out Elections in 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%3%
A specialized parliamentary working group and the Central Election Commission concluded that holding elections in 2026 is impossible due to active combat, security risks, and the need for a six-month post-ceasefire preparation period.
Ukraine recognizes impossibility of holding elections in 2026 due to unresolved issues
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%8%
The Times reported that Ukraine acknowledged it could not hold elections in 2026 as the working group failed to resolve key issues ensuring fair voting amid war conditions, reinforcing market expectations of no elections in the analyzed window.
Parliamentary Working Group Presents Findings on Post-War Election Challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%2%
Ukrainian lawmakers and electoral authorities gathered in Kyiv to present legislative proposals on the specifics of organizing post-war elections, reinforcing that voting remains a post-conflict prospect.
Round‑table presents post‑war election legislative findings in Kyiv
A round‑table in Kyiv presented detailed legislative proposals for post‑war elections, highlighting hurdles and timelines that extended well beyond 2025. The detailed briefing reinforced market pessimism, dragging prices lower.
International IDEA round‑table outlines security criteria for post‑war Ukrainian elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%7%
A round‑table organised by International IDEA presented findings on security criteria for post‑war elections, signalling that detailed planning was underway but still far from implementation, nudging the market further down.
IDEA‑backed round‑table outlines post‑war election legislation
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%4%
A round‑table on post‑war election preparation was held, presenting detailed legal proposals. The event gave the market modest optimism for a late‑2026 election, nudging the “December 31 2026” price up from 24 % to 28 % in early March.
Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid ongoing war and peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Zelenskyy appointed Ukraine’s head of military intelligence as his new chief of staff, signaling a focus on security and peace negotiations but no indication of elections being held in 2025.
Ukraine’s president faces growing political pressure amid war
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
Report on mounting internal crises and corruption scandals around President Zelensky reduced confidence that elections would be scheduled, pulling prices down further.
Public opinion favors postponing elections until after war ends
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%6%
Polls showed that a majority of Ukrainians preferred elections to be held only after the war ends, with only 10% supporting elections before a ceasefire. This public sentiment reinforced political caution and lowered market expectations for elections in 2025.
Zelenskyy open to demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%4%
Zelenskyy expressed openness to a demilitarized zone, a significant concession in peace talks, but the focus remained on security guarantees rather than immediate elections.
MP Fedir Venislavskyi says wartime elections are coming amid mounting political pressure
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%1%
Verkhovna Rada member Fedir Venislavskyi stated in an interview that elections will happen in the short or medium term despite challenges, reflecting growing political pressure and signaling a shift towards eventual electoral processes, which slightly supported market prices.
Top Lawmaker Confirms Wartime Elections Are Coming in Short or Medium Term
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%2%
Verkhovna Rada National Security Committee member Fedir Venislavskyi stated that elections will happen in the short or medium term as political pressure mounts.
Ukrainian MP Fedir Venislavskyi confirms elections will happen in short or medium term
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
Venislavskyi publicly affirmed that elections in Ukraine are inevitable despite martial law, reflecting political consensus on eventual elections but uncertainty on timing, contributing to market fluctuations.
Ukrainian MP States Wartime Elections Are Coming in Short or Medium Term
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Verkhovna Rada National Security Committee member Fedir Venislavskyi stated that political pressure makes wartime elections inevitable in the short or medium term.
Ukraine’s battered power grid faces unprecedented challenge amid ongoing war
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%4%
Continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during winter exacerbate humanitarian crises and underscore the ongoing conflict, reinforcing the indefinite postponement of elections under martial law and dampening market expectations for elections in 2025.
Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid government reshuffle
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%9%
President Zelenskyy appointed Ukraine’s military intelligence head as his new chief of staff to focus on security and peace talks, reflecting ongoing war challenges and political instability that dampen prospects for timely elections.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to discuss postwar election law
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%3%
President Zelenskyy expressed willingness to discuss legislation changes related to mobilization and elections after the war, indicating elections are deferred until after hostilities cease, which further reduced market confidence in 2025 elections.
Ukraine’s political instability and war conditions reduce election likelihood
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%4%
Continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and ongoing war conditions, combined with political challenges including corruption scandals, kept the probability of elections within 2025 and mid-2026 low, reflected in market prices dropping to single digits.
Ukraine’s CEC says elections impossible this year
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%7%
The CEC announced that holding elections in 2026 was impossible because martial law would still be in force and legal gaps remained. This news caused the “June 30 2026” price to tumble from 13 % to 6 % on 9 March.
Ukrainian parliament extends martial law for another 90 days
June 30, 2026 drops to 3%7%
A parliamentary vote on extending martial law for another 90‑day period was passed on March 7, confirming that elections remain legally barred. The move coincided with a sharp drop in the June‑30‑2026 price (from 10 % on Mar 6 to 3 % on Mar 18).
Zelenskyy faces growing pressure amid corruption scandal and war fatigue
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Reports of a $100 million corruption scandal and ongoing war fatigue further complicated the political landscape for Zelenskyy, making the prospect of elections even more remote.
Opposition leaders confirm opposition to wartime elections after US talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
Opposition politicians Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko stated their continued opposition to holding elections during wartime after discussions with US representatives, signaling political resistance to elections in 2025 and dampening market optimism.
Analysis of Ukraine peace talks shows stalled progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%11%
A detailed report highlighted that negotiations were making little headway, dampening hopes for a quick settlement and reducing the perceived likelihood of elections in 2025‑26.
Parliamentary group presents post‑war election legal framework
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%5%
A report on the work of the parliamentary working group on post‑war election legislation (IDEA/International IDEA) was published, signalling progress on legal frameworks for elections. The news modestly lifted market optimism, moving the “December 31, 2026” price from 17 % on 2026‑03‑03 to 22 % on 2026‑03‑04.
Zelenskyy Rules Out Elections During Temporary Truce
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%5%
In an interview with Corriere della Sera, Zelenskyy explicitly stated that elections will only take place after the war ends, not during a temporary truce, further lowering the probability of 2026 elections.
Zelenskyy reiterates elections only after war ends, not during ceasefire
President Zelenskyy stated that elections will only be held after the war concludes, not during a temporary ceasefire, reinforcing the legal and security challenges and diminishing near-term election prospects, consistent with market price declines.
Zelensky reiterates elections will be held after war, not during temporary ceasefire
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%2%
In an interview, Zelensky emphasized elections would occur only after the war ends, not during a temporary truce, signaling no elections in 2026. This reinforced market expectations of delayed elections beyond mid-2026.
Zelenskyy rules out elections during temporary ceasefire
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%7%
President Zelenskyy clarified in an interview that national elections would only take place after the war is fully over, and not during any temporary truce or ceasefire.
Reports of Ukraine planning spring presidential election alongside peace referendum
December 31, 2026 rises to 25%2%
Media reports indicated Ukraine was planning a spring presidential election and a referendum on a peace deal, raising market expectations. However, official statements and legal constraints kept uncertainty high.
Officials acknowledge elections could occur during war despite martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Sources within the Office of the President indicated elections might be held even if the war continues, marking a shift from earlier positions but still facing constitutional and practical hurdles, which kept market confidence low.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy pursues more arms deals with allies against Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%4%
Zelenskyy’s efforts to secure more arms amid ongoing Russian attacks and no election scheduling reinforced market skepticism about elections occurring in 2025.
Ukrainian delegation arrives in US for peace talks amid Russian attacks on energy sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
The Ukrainian delegation's arrival for peace talks highlights ongoing conflict and instability, with Russian attacks continuing to damage infrastructure. The war's persistence and martial law maintain the indefinite postponement of elections, lowering market confidence in elections occurring in 2025.
Working group delays election law draft citing unresolved issues
June 30, 2026 drops to 1%10%
The specialized working group concluded elections should not be held in 2026, citing the need for cessation of hostilities and a six-month preparation period after martial law ends, further reducing market confidence in elections by mid-2026.
Officials cite security risks and logistical challenges as elections in 2025 remain unlikely
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%7%
Ukrainian authorities and experts highlighted the impracticality of holding elections in 2025 due to ongoing war, martial law, and the complexity of organizing voting for millions of displaced persons and military personnel, further dampening market expectations.
Martial law in Ukraine indefinitely postpones elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Due to the ongoing war and martial law, Ukraine indefinitely postponed presidential and parliamentary elections originally scheduled for spring 2024. This official postponement and the continuation of martial law strongly indicated that elections would not be held in 2025, impacting market expectations.
Martial law extended again until August 2, 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Martial law in Ukraine was extended for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally preventing elections from being held in 2025 and further diminishing market expectations for elections within the specified timeframe.
Parliamentary working group expected to present draft election legislation by end of February
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
A parliamentary working group was reported to be preparing draft legislation to enable elections during martial law, marking a shift in official stance but still indicating elections would not be held in 2025.
Ukrainian parliament reaffirms no elections during martial law
The Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold a presidential election only after the war's conclusion. This reinforced legal and political barriers to elections in 2025 and early 2026, causing market prices for elections to drop.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms elections cannot be held during martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%5%
The Ukrainian parliament again confirmed that elections should not be held while martial law is in effect, legally blocking elections in 2025 and pushing market prices lower for election occurrence within the year.
Parliamentary working group to present draft election legislation by end of February
December 31, 2026 dips to 23%4%
A parliamentary working group was expected to present draft legislation on holding elections during the war by the end of February, signaling a shift toward possible elections despite martial law. This raised some market optimism but legal and security challenges remained.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms elections should not be held during martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
The Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the war's conclusion, reinforcing legal barriers to elections in 2025-2026 and impacting market prices downward.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law, pledges elections after war
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%6%
The Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the conclusion of the Russo-Ukrainian War. This reinforced the legal barrier to elections in 2025-2026, leading to a decline in market confidence.
Verkhovna Rada passes resolution reaffirming no elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
Ukraine's parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the war's conclusion, reinforcing legal barriers to elections in 2025 and lowering market confidence.
Ukrainian parliament working group to draft election legislation under martial law
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
A parliamentary working group began preparing draft legislation to enable presidential elections under martial law, signaling political efforts to hold elections despite legal restrictions. This development briefly increased market hopes for elections in 2025.
Martial law extended again until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 19th time, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and effectively ruling out elections before August 2026, which caused a sharp drop in market probabilities for elections in 2025 or early 2026.
Ukraine announces proposed peace plan including post-agreement elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%7%
Ukraine’s draft peace proposal includes holding elections after signing the agreement, but ongoing conflict and unresolved issues kept elections from being scheduled within 2025.
Ukrainian officials acknowledge elections could occur during ongoing war despite martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%5%
Sources within the Office of the President acknowledged that elections could take place even if the war continues, a departure from earlier positions, but legal and practical challenges remain, keeping market uncertainty high.
Market sentiment drops as peace talks stall over territorial disputes
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
As details of the peace negotiations emerged, it became clear that Russia and Ukraine remained deeply divided over territorial issues, leading to a decline in the market's 'Yes' probability.
Ukraine plans to announce election and peace referendum preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%2%
Reports emerged that Ukraine intended to announce plans for presidential elections and a peace deal referendum on February 24, raising market expectations. However, Zelenskyy denied having made such plans, maintaining uncertainty about election timing.
Ukraine begins technical preparations for elections despite ongoing war
December 31, 2026 dips to 24%4%
Reports indicated Ukraine was moving from speculation to technical preparation for elections, including forming parliamentary working groups to draft legislation for elections under martial law, signaling a shift in political stance but with significant challenges remaining.
Ukraine Central Election Commission Rules Out 2026 Elections Due to War Risks
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%12%
The Central Election Commission of Ukraine concluded that holding elections in 2026 is impossible due to ongoing security risks, legal gaps, and the continuation of martial law.
Zelenskyy again denies election announcement on Feb 24, cites U.S. focus on cease‑fire
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%4%
On the expected announcement date, the Ukrainian president again denied any imminent election plan, stating that the U.S. is focusing on a cease‑fire rather than pressure for voting. The reaffirmation caused the June‑30‑2026 price to fall from 12 % to 8 % on Feb 28.
Ukraine parliament speaker announces draft law on postwar elections is coming soon
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced that a draft law on postwar elections would be presented soon, shifting focus toward postwar timelines rather than immediate wartime voting.
Zelenskyy signals readiness for elections but only after ceasefire and security guarantees
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
On the fourth anniversary of the invasion, Zelenskyy indicated elections could be held but only after a ceasefire and security infrastructure are in place, effectively ruling out elections in 2025 and causing market prices to decline further.
Ukraine Working Group Rules Out 2026 Elections Citing War Risks and Legal Gaps
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%6%
A specialized parliamentary working group concluded that Ukraine must wait at least six months after establishing a ceasefire and adopting legislation before holding elections, effectively ruling out any vote in 2026.
Speaker says draft law on post‑war elections to be presented soon
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%14%
Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced that a draft law on post‑war elections would be presented to parliament imminently, suggesting a timeline that could push an election into late 2026. This revived expectations for a 2026 vote and lifted the “December 31 2026” price back up to about 41 % from a low of 27 % a month earlier.
Draft law on postwar elections to be presented to Ukrainian parliament soon
December 31, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced that a draft law on postwar elections would be presented soon, signaling progress in legislative preparations but also indicating that elections would be contingent on legal and security conditions, which kept market expectations cautious.
Ukraine parliamentary working group to present draft election law
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
Ukraine's parliamentary working group announced plans to present draft legislation on post-war elections, indicating progress on legal frameworks but also highlighting unresolved issues that delayed elections beyond 2025. This contributed to market declines in election probability.
Zelenskyy Denies Imminent Election Plans and Parliament Delays Postwar Voting Bill
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
President Zelenskyy denied the Financial Times report of an imminent election announcement, while Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced that a draft law on postwar elections would be presented soon, pushing actual timelines further out.
Ukraine Parliamentary Speaker Announces Post-War Election Bill is Coming
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced that a draft law on post-war elections would be presented soon, shifting focus toward post-war timelines rather than immediate wartime voting.
Zelenskyy delays election announcement amid war and martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%5%
Despite earlier plans, President Zelenskyy did not announce elections or a referendum on the war anniversary, citing martial law and security concerns, reinforcing market expectations that elections would not occur in 2025 or early 2026.
Reports of Ukraine planning to announce election and peace referendum
Financial Times reported that Ukraine intended to announce plans for presidential elections and a peace referendum on February 24, raising market hopes for elections in 2025, though this was later denied by Zelenskyy.
President Zelensky to announce plans for presidential elections and peace referendum
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
President Zelensky planned to announce details on holding presidential elections and a peace referendum, raising market speculation about elections in 2026. However, the announcement did not confirm election dates, and legal martial law restrictions remained in place.
Zelenskyy's hold on power remains firm under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%7%
Reports emphasized that Russia's invasion triggered martial law, indefinitely postponing elections, and that Zelenskyy is unlikely to be unseated while the war continues.
Verkhovna Rada working group to draft bill on holding elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 16%5%
Ukraine's parliament formed a working group to prepare legislation for holding elections during martial law, signaling technical preparations but not immediate scheduling, reflecting ongoing legal and security challenges delaying elections in 2025.
Stefanchuk says draft post‑war election law to be presented soon
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%12%
The Verkhovna Rada speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced that a draft law on post‑war elections would be presented to parliament soon. This concrete legislative step boosted the Dec 31 2026 price to 31 % on Feb 1, then caused a sharp drop to 22 % on Feb 5 as traders reassessed the timeline.
No election announcement by Zelensky on invasion anniversary amid security concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%6%
Despite earlier reports, Zelensky's office confirmed no election or referendum announcement would be made on February 24 due to unresolved security arrangements, further dampening market expectations for near-term elections.
CEC says elections impossible in 2026 under martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
The CEC publicly confirmed that elections cannot be held in 2026 because martial law remains in force, a statement that drove the June‑30, 2026 price to near‑zero.
FT reports Zelensky to unveil election and referendum plans on Feb 24
June 30, 2026 rises to 11%3%
The Financial Times published a story that Zelensky would announce election and peace‑referendum plans on the anniversary of the invasion. The anticipation of an official announcement caused a brief rally, lifting the “June 30, 2026” price from 8 % on 2026‑02‑20 to 11 % on 2026‑02‑24, the highest level in the window.
Working group delays election legislation, ruling out 2026 vote
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%3%
By late February 2026, the parliamentary working group on elections had not resolved key issues regarding fair voting amid war conditions, agreeing that elections could only be held at least six months after a ceasefire and adoption of election laws, effectively ruling out elections in 2026 and pushing market prices lower.
Verkhovna Rada Speaker announces draft bill on post-war elections forthcoming
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk stated that a draft bill on elections after the war is being developed, signaling legislative progress but no immediate election date. This tempered market optimism, causing a price decline.
Zelensky plans to announce presidential elections and peace referendum
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
Reports indicated Zelensky intended to announce plans for elections and a peace referendum, raising market speculation, but no official election scheduling occurred within the market timeframe, limiting price impact.
Ukraine Rules Out 2026 Elections Citing War Risks and Legal Hurdles
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
A parliamentary working group and election officials confirmed that key security and legal issues remain unresolved, effectively ruling out presidential elections for 2026.
Ukraine Specialized Working Group Rules Out Elections in 2026
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%5%
A specialized parliamentary working group concluded that holding elections in 2026 is impossible due to security risks, legal gaps, and the requirement of a six-month post-ceasefire period.
Ukraine Rules Out 2026 Elections Citing War Risks and Legal Gaps
The Central Election Commission and a parliamentary working group concluded that holding elections in 2026 is impossible due to active combat, security risks, and unresolved logistical issues.
Political leaders announce presidential elections in fall 2026 and parliamentary elections in spring 2027
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%3%
Some Ukrainian political leaders informed regional branches about plans for presidential elections in fall 2026 and parliamentary elections in spring 2027, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and delayed election timelines.
Ukrainian Media Reports Discussions of Presidential Election in Fall 2026
Reports emerged that Ukrainian lawmakers and party leaders were discussing holding the presidential election in the fall of 2026 and parliamentary elections in spring 2027.
Parliamentary working group presents draft election legislation
On March 20, 2026, Ukrainian lawmakers and partners presented outcomes of a working group preparing legislative proposals for elections during or after the war, signaling technical progress but no election date set, sustaining market uncertainty.
Reports indicate presidential election may be held in fall 2026, parliamentary in spring 2027
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%6%
Media reports from Ukrainian parliamentary sources suggested the presidential election might occur in fall 2026 and parliamentary elections in spring 2027, pushing expectations beyond the market's June 30, 2026 cutoff and reducing near-term election probability.
Reports suggest Ukrainian presidential election may be held in fall 2026, parliamentary in spring 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%8%
Sources in Ukraine's parliament indicated preparations for elections intensified, with presidential elections possibly in fall 2026 and parliamentary in spring 2027, discussing holding votes under martial law, which delayed 2025 elections and lowered market prices.
Zelenskyy Backtracks on Wartime Elections, Citing Ceasefire Requirement
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%7%
Zelenskyy clarified that elections would only proceed if a ceasefire and robust security guarantees were established first, effectively ruling out a quick vote under martial law.
Zelensky pledges elections only after ceasefire and security guarantees
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%6%
President Zelensky stated elections would only be held after a ceasefire and security guarantees, reaffirming the legal and security challenges to holding elections during martial law. This statement contributed to market declines in election probability.
Reports indicate Ukraine presidential election in fall 2026, parliamentary in spring 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%12%
Media reported that Ukrainian party leaders expect presidential elections in fall 2026 and parliamentary elections in spring 2027, effectively ruling out elections within the 2025 window and lowering market probabilities.
TASS: Ukraine may hold presidential election in fall 2026, parliamentary vote in spring 2027
TASS reported sources saying the presidential election might be held in the fall of 2026, while parliamentary elections could slip to 2027. The possibility of a 2026 election created a brief rally in the market, lifting the price for the later‑dated outcome.
Roundtable discusses legislative proposals for post-war elections in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%9%
Ukrainian lawmakers and international partners convened to present findings on organizing elections during special periods or post-war, indicating ongoing preparations but no immediate election plans, maintaining market skepticism about near-term elections.
Media reports say Ukraine plans presidential election in fall 2026, parliamentary in spring 2027
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
Reports from Ukrainian parliamentary sources indicated that presidential elections are expected in fall 2026 and parliamentary elections in spring 2027, confirming no elections in 2025 and reinforcing market moves toward lower probabilities for 2025 elections.
Ukrainian Media Reports Presidential Election Slated for Fall 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%5%
Reports surfaced from Ukraine's Insider portal indicating that political party leaders were informing regional branches of a potential presidential election in the fall of 2026, keeping the late 2026 timeline active.
Zelenskyy Questions US Pressure on Elections in Piers Morgan Interview
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%1%
In a wide-ranging interview, Zelenskyy expressed frustration with US pressure to hold wartime elections, questioning if partners wanted democracy or simply to replace him.
Zelenskyy says Russia agrees to only one day ceasefire for elections, calls Kremlin's position absurd
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%8%
President Zelenskyy stated in an interview that Russia agreed to only a one-day ceasefire for elections instead of the 60 days Ukraine requested, indicating Moscow's unwillingness for real peace and complicating prospects for elections in 2025.
Ukrainian parliament forms working group to explore elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%4%
Following Zelenskyy's readiness statement, the Verkhovna Rada established a working group to study the possibility of holding elections during martial law. However, this was seen as a bureaucratic step with uncertain outcomes, leading to continued market decline in election probability.
Trump administration's 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan presented to Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
The Trump administration presented a peace plan requiring Ukraine to hold elections after the war, but with significant concessions and no election scheduled within 2025, the market reacted with uncertainty about elections occurring in 2025.
Zelenskyy Reiterates Ceasefire Requirement for Elections at Munich Security Conference
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
At the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is open to elections but requires at least a two-month ceasefire to amend legislation and prepare.
Zelenskyy outlines 20-point peace plan including postwar elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%5%
Zelenskyy described a peace plan negotiated with the U.S. that includes holding elections after signing the agreement, but no elections were scheduled within 2025, maintaining market uncertainty about election timing.
Zelenskyy says US security agreement for Ukraine is '100% ready' to be signed
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%4%
President Zelenskyy announced a US security guarantees document is ready for signing after talks involving Ukraine, US, and Russia, but no election scheduling was confirmed, maintaining market uncertainty about 2025 elections.
Zelenskyy denies report of Feb 24 election announcement
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%10%
Zelenskyy publicly denied the FT report, saying he had never heard of any plan to announce elections on 24 February. The denial removed the optimism, sending the “December 31 2026” price down to 31 % and starting a brief downward trend.
Russian missile and drone barrage hits Ukrainian energy infrastructure
A massive Russian strike on energy facilities underscored the war’s intensity, weakening expectations that Ukraine could organize elections, and contributed to a 8‑point price drop the next day.
Trump administration presents 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan including elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
The Trump administration presented a 28-point peace plan to Ukraine, which included a requirement for Ukraine to hold elections within 100 days after signing the agreement. However, the plan was controversial and seen as favoring Russia, and no elections were scheduled within 2025, maintaining uncertainty about election timing.
U.S. Congress stalls passage of Ukraine security guarantees
Congressional debate over the security‑guarantee package stalled, leaving the document unsigned and further eroding expectations that elections could be scheduled for 2025.
Zelenskyy Rejects Spring Election Rumors, Demanding Ceasefire and Security Guarantees First
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%3%
President Zelenskyy pushed back against a Financial Times report suggesting he would announce spring elections, stating that voting can only occur after a ceasefire and security guarantees are established.
Trump administration presents 28-point peace plan to Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%8%
The U.S. presented a draft peace proposal to Ukraine, which included significant concessions such as territorial losses and military caps, causing a temporary spike in market optimism regarding a potential end to the conflict.
Ukraine faces large-scale Russian drone and missile attacks amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%5%
Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure during ongoing peace negotiations, highlighting the ongoing conflict and complicating prospects for elections in 2025.
Zelenskyy rejects FT report on February 24 election announcement
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
Zelenskyy publicly denied a Financial Times report that he would announce a plan for a presidential election and peace‑deal referendum on February 24, the anniversary of the invasion. The denial removed any immediate expectation of a 2025‑26 election, driving the market’s “Yes” probability for the December‑31‑2026 outcome down from 33 % to 28 % within a few days.
Zelensky says he’s open to creating a demilitarised zone in eastern Ukraine
December 31, 2026 surges to 39%18%
President Zelensky’s statement that Ukraine might accept a demilitarised zone was seen as a concession that could ease peace talks and pave the way for an election timetable, pushing prices up.
Election watchdogs say wartime elections impossible without ceasefire
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
Election‑monitoring NGOs reiterated that elections cannot be held before a ceasefire and that martial law prevents any voting. The reiterated institutional resistance caused a sharp drop in the “Yes” price for the December‑31‑2026 outcome from 31 % to 23 % on 12 February 2026.
Zelenskyy confirms US security agreement is '100% ready'
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%11%
Zelenskyy announced that a U.S. security guarantees document was ready, which would require ratification by the Ukrainian parliament, briefly raising hopes for a path toward peace and potential elections.
Ukrainian election institutions say May elections impossible under martial law
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%6%
Election authorities and civic watchdogs stated that elections could not be rushed and were impossible to hold in May due to martial law and security concerns. Public polls showed majority support for postponing elections until after the war ends, reinforcing market doubts.
Zelensky denies report he will announce election plans on Feb 24
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
Zelensky publicly denied a Financial Times story that he would announce election plans on 24 February, stating he had never heard of such a plan. The denial reduced the perceived likelihood of an election, causing the “December 31, 2026” price to fall from about 34 % on 2026‑02‑11 to 28 % on 2026‑02‑12.
Zelensky says cease‑fire must precede any Ukrainian vote
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%5%
In a live update, DW reported Zelensky’s comment that a cease‑fire must precede any national vote. The requirement of a cease‑fire further dampened market expectations, contributing to the slide of the “December 31, 2026” price to a low of 17 % by 2026‑03‑18.
Zelenskyy states Ukraine will hold elections only after ceasefire and security guarantees
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%6%
President Zelenskyy publicly declared that Ukraine will not hold elections until a ceasefire with Russia is established and necessary security guarantees are in place, pushing back against US pressure for early elections. This reinforced market skepticism about elections occurring by mid-2026.
Zelenskyy says elections need U.S. security guarantee
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
On the same day as the denial, Reuters quoted Zelenskyy saying elections could only occur after a U.S.‑backed security guarantee, keeping the “December 31 2026” market depressed but later stabilising as the conversation shifted toward a possible May vote.
European Parliament approves €90 bn loan for Ukraine
June 30, 2026 jumps to 19%7%
DW noted that the European Parliament approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine on 11 Feb 2026. The financing boost revived expectations that a post‑war election could be organised, causing a short‑term rally for both outcomes, especially the “June 30 2026” contract.
Zelenskyy denies plans to announce election and peace referendum on Feb 24
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%4%
President Zelenskyy publicly denied reports that he would announce plans for a presidential election and peace deal referendum on the war anniversary, emphasizing elections would only occur after security guarantees and ceasefire, dampening market optimism for near-term elections.
Poll shows only 10% of Ukrainians support elections before ceasefire
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
A poll by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found overwhelming public opposition to holding elections before a ceasefire, reinforcing the legal and political barriers to wartime elections and contributing to market price declines for election occurrence.
Zelenskyy denies plans for February 24 election announcement, cites security concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%8%
President Zelenskyy publicly refuted the Financial Times report, stating he first heard about the plans from the media and emphasized that elections cannot be held until security guarantees are in place. This clarification caused a sharp drop in market confidence for elections in 2025.
Zelenskyy Rejects Imminent Election Reports, Demanding Ceasefire First
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%6%
President Zelenskyy quickly pushed back against the Financial Times report, clarifying that elections would only be held once a ceasefire and security guarantees are in place, dampening near-term market optimism.
Poll shows only 10% Ukrainians support elections before ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
A KIIS poll revealed minimal public support for holding elections before the war ends, reinforcing the view that elections during martial law are unlikely and contributing to market price declines.
Parliamentary working group advancing election legislation amid war
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
A parliamentary working group continued drafting election legislation but acknowledged unresolved issues related to security and fair voting under martial law, signaling elections would not be imminent and dampening market expectations.
Ukraine denies plans to announce elections and peace referendum on Feb 24
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%4%
President Zelenskyy denied reports that he would announce plans for presidential elections and a peace deal referendum on the war's anniversary, stating elections would only be held after security guarantees from the US. This pushed back market expectations for imminent elections.
Report claims Ukraine to hold presidential elections and peace referendum in spring
December 31, 2026 jumps to 17%9%
Reports emerged that Ukraine planned to hold simultaneous presidential elections and a peace deal referendum in spring 2026 under US pressure, raising market hopes for elections despite legal and security challenges.
Zelenskyy denies FT report of Feb 24 election announcement
December 31, 2026 jumps to 31%9%
A Financial Times report claimed Zelenskyy would announce a Feb 24 election plan; he denied it the next day. The denial caused a sharp swing for the “December 31 2026” market (‑9 points on Feb 11, +9 points on Feb 13) as traders reassessed election timing.
Financial Times claims Ukraine will set 24 Feb election and referendum date
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
The Financial Times reported that Ukraine would announce a presidential election and a peace‑deal referendum on 24 February 2026. The story raised market optimism, lifting the “December 31 2026” price to 34 %. The next day Zelenskyy denied the report, causing the price to fall back to 28 %, a swing of –6 points.
Zelenskyy plans to announce election and peace referendum preparations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%11%
The Financial Times reported that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy intended to announce plans for presidential elections and a peace deal referendum on February 24, 2026, signaling readiness to hold elections post-martial law. This announcement was seen as a key step towards organizing elections, impacting market prices positively.
Ukraine election authorities and watchdogs caution against rushed elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%8%
Election authorities and civic watchdogs in Ukraine reiterated that elections could not be rushed and must wait until security and legal conditions are met, reinforcing the view that elections in 2025 were unlikely. This tempered market optimism despite political signals.
Ukraine plans to announce election and peace deal referendum on February 24
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%22%
The Financial Times reported that Ukrainian President Zelensky intended to announce plans for presidential elections and a referendum on a peace deal on February 24, 2026, raising market hopes for elections in 2026. However, Zelensky later denied having made such plans, tempering market optimism.
OPORA says legal hurdles keep elections impossible under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%11%
OPORA’s chair highlighted that the parliamentary working group had held 32 meetings on election law, but stressed that current law prohibits elections during martial law. The reaffirmation of legal barriers caused the “December 31 2026” market to dip to its lowest point of 10 % on 26 April, reflecting reduced confidence in any 2025‑2026 vote.
FT says Ukraine will announce election and peace‑deal referendum on Feb 24
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%12%
The Financial Times reported that Ukraine was preparing to announce a presidential election and a peace‑deal referendum on 24 February, the fourth anniversary of the invasion. The story sparked a short‑term surge in the “December 31 2026” price, which rose from 29 % to a peak of 41 % on the same day.
Reports emerge of Ukraine planning spring 2026 presidential elections and peace referendum
December 31, 2026 jumps to 21%13%
Financial Times reported that Ukrainian and European officials were planning wartime elections in spring 2026 alongside a peace deal referendum, with US security guarantees linked to holding elections. This raised market hopes for elections in 2026, causing some price increases.
Zelensky denies imminent election announcement on February 24
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%7%
President Zelensky denied reports that he would announce election plans on February 24, stating elections would only be held after appropriate US security guarantees, tempering market optimism about near-term elections.
Parliamentary working group on elections holds 32 meetings in February
December 31, 2026 drops to 16%8%
Euromaidan Press reported that OPORA’s chair said the parliamentary working group on elections had already held 32 meetings in the month, signalling progress but also highlighting that the law still bars voting under martial law. The news nudged the December‑31‑2026 price down (from 24 % on Mar 12 to 16 % on Mar 22).
Financial Times reports Zelenskyy may announce election plan on Feb 24
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%4%
The same Reuters piece noted a Financial Times report that Zelenskyy would announce election preparations on Feb 24, the fourth anniversary of the invasion. The speculation raised the June‑30‑2026 price briefly (from 8 % to 12 % on Feb 10) before the denial pulled it back.
Poll shows 59% of Ukrainians want to wait until war ends to hold elections
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%10%
A KIIS poll revealed that only 10% of Ukrainians supported holding elections before a ceasefire, highlighting strong domestic public opposition to wartime voting.
Zelenskyy says cease‑fire must precede any Ukrainian election
December 31, 2026 drops to 16%6%
Reuters reported Zelenskyy pushing back on a Financial Times story that he would announce election plans on Feb 24, saying elections will only happen after a ceasefire and security guarantees. The denial reduced optimism that an election could occur in 2025‑26, driving the December‑31‑2026 outcome down sharply (from 22 % on Feb 2 to 16 % on Feb 22).
Ukraine effectively rules out presidential elections in 2026, CEC says
LIGA.net quoted the deputy head of the Central Election Commission saying that presidential elections are effectively ruled out for 2026, confirming legal and security obstacles. The market fell sharply after the story.
Zelenskyy says cease‑fire must precede any Ukrainian election
Zelenskyy told reporters that a cease‑fire must be in place before any election could be held, contradicting earlier speculation about a spring vote. The remark reinforced expectations that elections would be postponed, pushing the market down for both outcomes.
Zelenskiy denies plans to announce election and peace referendum on Feb 24
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%8%
President Zelenskiy refuted reports that he would announce plans for a presidential election and peace referendum on the invasion anniversary, stating elections would only occur after security guarantees from the US, reinforcing market skepticism about imminent elections.
Zelenskyy Rejects Financial Times Report of Impending Election Announcement
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%13%
President Zelenskyy strongly denied a Financial Times report suggesting he would announce election plans on February 24, stating that holding elections requires a ceasefire and security guarantees first.
Ukrainian institutions reaffirm elections cannot be held during martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%4%
Ukraine's Central Election Commission and watchdogs emphasized that elections cannot be rushed or held during martial law, which was extended through August 2025. Public polls showed majority opposition to elections before a ceasefire, dampening market expectations for 2025 elections.
Zelenskiy denies plans for wartime Ukrainian presidential election and peace deal referendum
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%8%
President Zelenskiy rejected a Financial Times report that he planned to announce a presidential election and peace deal referendum on February 24, stating Ukraine would only hold elections after U.S. security guarantees. This caused a significant price drop from 39% to 31% for December 2026 and 13% to 12% for June 2026.
Zelenskyy Denies Imminent Election Plans and Rejects Financial Times Report
June 30, 2026 drops to 16%12%
President Zelenskyy pushed back against reports that he would announce spring elections on the invasion anniversary, stating that elections require a ceasefire and security guarantees. This statement dampened market expectations for a near-term vote.
Parliamentary working group advances election legislation draft
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%1%
A parliamentary working group in Ukraine intensified efforts to draft legislation for postwar elections, but key issues remained unresolved, signaling elections were not imminent. This legislative activity was noted but did not increase market confidence in near-term elections.
Zelenskyy states elections require ceasefire and security guarantees
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%4%
President Zelenskyy publicly declared that national elections in Ukraine would only be held after a ceasefire and security guarantees are in place, reinforcing the legal and practical barriers to elections during martial law. This statement contributed to market declines in the likelihood of elections by mid-2026.
Zelenskiy denies plans to announce election and peace referendum on Feb 24
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%5%
President Zelenskiy denied reports that he would announce plans for presidential elections and a peace referendum on the war anniversary, stating elections would only occur after security guarantees. This tempered market expectations for imminent elections.
Reports Claim Ukraine Plans Spring Presidential Election and Peace Referendum
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%12%
The Financial Times reported that Ukraine was planning a presidential election and peace deal referendum for Spring 2026, causing a sharp spike in market odds.
Zelenskyy denies imminent election announcement, demands security guarantees
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
President Zelenskyy publicly denied reports of an imminent election announcement on February 24, emphasizing that elections would only be held after appropriate security guarantees from the U.S. This dampened market optimism about near-term elections.
Zelenskyy says ceasefire must precede elections, pushing back on US pressure
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%11%
President Zelenskyy stated that elections would only be held once a ceasefire and security guarantees were in place, pushing back against US pressure to hold elections during ongoing conflict. This reinforced market expectations that elections in early 2026 were unlikely.
Zelenskyy denies plans to announce elections and peace referendum on Feb 24
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
President Zelenskyy publicly denied reports that he would announce plans for presidential elections and a peace deal referendum on the war anniversary, reiterating that elections would only occur after security guarantees and a ceasefire, dampening market optimism for immediate elections.
Ukraine plans presidential election with peace referendum
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%4%
Financial Times reported Ukraine planning a presidential election alongside a referendum on a peace deal, suggesting preparations for elections were underway, which briefly supported market optimism for elections in 2026.
Financial Times Reports Zelenskyy Plans to Announce February 24 Election
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%11%
A report by the Financial Times claimed that President Zelenskyy was planning to announce a presidential election and peace referendum on the anniversary of the invasion, causing a massive spike in market odds.
Ukrainian Election Watchdogs and Public Oppose Wartime Voting
June 30, 2026 drops to 16%8%
Civil society organizations and polling data reinforced that holding elections by May is impossible due to security, legal, and logistical barriers, with only 10% of the public supporting wartime voting.
Ukraine’s Central Election Commission proposes post-martial law election timeline
December 31, 2026 plunges to 20%15%
The Central Election Commission proposed that elections be called within one month after martial law ends, with the electoral process starting no earlier than six months later, effectively ruling out elections in 2026 and aligning with market price declines.
FT reports Ukraine to announce spring election – Zelensky denies
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%3%
A Financial Times report that Ukraine planned to announce a spring election sparked a brief rally in the market; the price rose a few points before Zelenskyy denied the report, causing a quick reversal.
Zelensky denies plans to announce election and peace deal referendum on Feb 24
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
President Zelensky denied reports that he would announce plans for presidential elections and a peace deal referendum on the war anniversary, emphasizing elections would only occur after security guarantees. This tempered market optimism about near-term elections.
Financial Times reports Ukraine plans to announce presidential elections and peace referendum on Feb 24
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%5%
The Financial Times reported that Ukraine was planning to announce preparations for presidential elections and a referendum on a peace deal on February 24, 2026, raising market expectations for near-term elections. This news caused a modest increase in market optimism.
European Parliament approves €90 billion loan for Ukraine
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%7%
The European Parliament approved a €90 billion loan to support Ukraine's financial needs through 2026 and 2027, indirectly supporting the government's ability to maintain martial law and delay elections, influencing market sentiment.
Parliamentary working group intensifies election preparations amid unresolved issues
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
A parliamentary working group in Ukraine has been actively preparing draft legislation for postwar elections, but key issues such as media regulation and fair voting amid ongoing conflict remain unresolved, limiting near-term election prospects.
Zelenskyy states elections require ceasefire and security guarantees
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
President Zelenskyy publicly declared that Ukraine will only hold elections once a ceasefire with Russia and security guarantees are in place, pushing back against reports of imminent elections under US pressure. This reinforced market skepticism about elections occurring in 2025 or early 2026.
Zelenskyy Denies Financial Times Report of February 24 Election Announcement
June 30, 2026 drops to 20%5%
President Zelenskyy denied a Financial Times report claiming he would announce election plans on February 24, stating that elections would only occur after appropriate security guarantees. This denial caused a sharp drop in the probability of early elections.
Ukraine signals election readiness but institutions say May 2026 election impossible
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
While Kyiv signaled readiness to Washington for elections, election institutions like the Central Election Commission and civic watchdogs stated that elections could not be rushed and that May 2026 elections were impossible due to ongoing martial law and security concerns. This reinforced market skepticism.
Zelenskyy Rejects Reports of Imminent Election Announcement and Demands Ceasefire First
June 30, 2026 drops to 18%10%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly denied reports that he was planning to announce spring elections, emphasizing that a ceasefire and security guarantees must precede any national vote.
U.S. and Russia resume trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
The renewal of U.S.–Ukraine–Russia negotiations raised hopes of a cease‑fire and a framework for post‑war elections, prompting a 9‑point rally in the market as traders priced in a possible path to elections.
Zelenskyy Denies Imminent Election Plans, Citing Security Guarantee Requirements
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
President Zelenskyy quickly refuted the Financial Times report, stating that Ukraine would only hold elections after receiving appropriate security guarantees from the U.S., which immediately cooled market expectations.
Zelenskyy Denies Report of Impending Election Announcement
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%7%
President Zelenskyy strongly pushed back against a Financial Times report claiming he would announce election plans on February 24, stating that elections can only occur after a ceasefire and security guarantees are established.
Financial Times Reports Ukraine Plans Spring Presidential Election and Peace Referendum
June 30, 2026 jumps to 18%6%
The Financial Times reported that Ukraine was planning to hold presidential elections and a peace referendum in Spring 2026 under pressure from the United States, causing a sharp spike in near-term election probabilities.
Zelenskyy Rejects Reports of Imminent Election Announcement, Demands Ceasefire First
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%11%
President Zelenskyy publicly denied the Financial Times report of an imminent election announcement, stating that elections could only occur after a ceasefire and security guarantees.
Zelenskiy denies FT report of Feb 24 election announcement but FT claims Ukraine planning spring vote
December 31, 2026 jumps to 34%11%
A Reuters report cited a Financial Times story that Zelenskyy would announce plans on Feb 24 to hold a presidential election and a peace‑deal referendum. The market jumped sharply to 40 % Yes for the Dec 31 2026 outcome on Feb 11, reflecting renewed belief that elections could actually be scheduled within 2025‑2026.
European Parliament approves €90 billion loan for Ukraine
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%2%
EU leaders announced a €90 billion loan for Ukraine, signalling financial support that could enable the logistical preparations for an election. The market price for the June 30 2026 outcome rose modestly from 3 % to 5 % on Feb 13, reflecting a slight easing of election‑risk concerns.
OPORA says only 10 % back early elections; poll confirms public scepticism
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
OPORA’s chair Olha Aivazovska cited a KIIS poll showing only 10 % of Ukrainians support elections before a cease‑fire, reinforcing the view that elections were unlikely before mid‑2026. The market’s June 30 2026 price slid to a low of 2 % on Apr 2, confirming the sentiment.
Zelenskyy denies FT report on announcing elections on Feb 24
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
A Financial Times story claimed Zelenskyy would announce a presidential election on the war’s fourth anniversary (24 Feb). Zelenskyy publicly denied the report, underscoring the uncertainty around any election timetable and pushing the “December 31, 2026” probability down a few points.
Ukraine signals election readiness despite martial law, majority prefer waiting
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%5%
Ukraine's election institutions emphasized that elections cannot be rushed under martial law, reaffirming legal prohibitions. Polls showed 59% of Ukrainians preferred waiting until the war ends before voting, dampening market optimism for elections in mid-2026.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law amid public opposition
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
In February 2025, the Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law, reflecting strong public opposition with 81% against wartime elections. This official stance directly countered international pressure and reduced market expectations for elections in 2025.
Ukrainian institutions affirm elections impossible before martial law ends
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%8%
In February 2026, key Ukrainian election institutions and watchdogs stated that elections could not be rushed and must wait until martial law ends, reinforcing the legal and practical barriers to holding elections during wartime. This institutional stance contributed to a sharp decline in market prices for elections occurring by June 30, 2026.
Zelenskyy denies Financial Times report, stating elections require ceasefire and security guarantees
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%13%
President Zelenskyy quickly pushed back against the Financial Times report, clarifying that elections would only occur after a ceasefire and security guarantees are established, dampening the initial market optimism.
Reports Suggest Ukraine Plans Spring Presidential Elections and Peace Referendum
December 31, 2026 jumps to 37%13%
The Financial Times reported that Ukrainian and European officials were planning for a presidential election and a peace deal referendum to be held in May 2026, driven by pressure from the U.S. Trump administration.
President Zelenskyy denies imminent election announcement, stresses need for security guarantees
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
President Zelenskyy publicly denied reports of an imminent election announcement on February 24, emphasizing that elections would only be held after appropriate security guarantees and a ceasefire, which dampened market optimism about near-term elections.
President Zelenskyy states elections only after security guarantees and ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine will only hold elections once it has security guarantees in place and a ceasefire with Russia, pushing back against suggestions of staging elections under US pressure, reinforcing the legal and security barriers to elections in 2026.
Zelenskyy open to demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%10%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expressed openness to creating a demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine as part of peace efforts, but Russia showed no indication of withdrawing from occupied territories. The ongoing conflict and unresolved territorial disputes continued to delay any possibility of elections in 2025.
Ukrainian institutions say May elections impossible amid martial law
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%9%
Despite external pressure, Ukrainian electoral bodies and civil society organizations stated that holding elections in May 2026 was impossible due to martial law, security concerns, and logistical challenges, with public opinion largely against elections before the war ends, leading to market price declines.
Zelenskyy Rejects Reports of May Elections, Demanding Ceasefire First
June 30, 2026 drops to 16%8%
President Zelenskyy strongly pushed back against a Financial Times report suggesting he would announce elections on February 24, stating that a ceasefire and security guarantees must precede any vote.
Zelenskyy states elections only after war and security guarantees
President Zelenskyy declared that elections in Ukraine will only take place after the war is over and security guarantees are in place, pushing back against US pressure to hold elections during the conflict. This statement supported market expectations that elections would not occur in 2025.
Poll shows majority of Ukrainians oppose elections before war ends
A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that only 10% of Ukrainians supported holding elections before a ceasefire, with 59% saying elections should wait until the war ends. This public sentiment reinforced market expectations against elections in 2025.
Russian missile strike hits Sloviansk, killing civilians
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A major Russian bombing raid on Sloviansk on 10 February raised security concerns, reinforcing doubts about the feasibility of voting in 2025‑2026 and nudging the “December 31 2026” price down to 19 % the next day.
Kosovo schedules snap parliamentary vote to break political deadlock
The snap election in Kosovo underscored political volatility in the Balkans, a region bordering Ukraine, adding to broader regional uncertainty that weighed on market sentiment about Ukraine’s election prospects.
Ukraine begins planning presidential election alongside peace referendum
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
Reports emerged that Ukraine had started planning for a presidential election to be held alongside a referendum on a prospective peace deal with Russia, signaling political preparation but not immediate scheduling of elections within 2025 or early 2026.
Ukraine’s president under pressure amid corruption scandal and war challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Zelenskyy faces internal political crises and corruption scandals, weakening his position and complicating prospects for elections. Martial law remains in place, indefinitely postponing elections, which reduces market expectations for elections in 2025.
UK politician Nathan Gill sentenced for bribery tied to pro‑Russia statements on Ukraine
The sentencing highlighted ongoing Russian influence operations in Europe, raising concerns about political stability in the region and indirectly lowering expectations that Ukraine could hold elections amid external meddling.
US aims for March peace deal and quick Ukrainian elections, sources say
Reuters reported that the United States was pushing for a March peace deal and quick elections in Ukraine, reviving hopes that a 2025 election could be moved forward. The market responded with a sharp rise on 12‑Feb‑2026.
US and Ukraine discuss March peace deal and May elections
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%3%
In early February 2026, US and Ukrainian officials discussed an ambitious March goal for a peace deal and the possibility of holding national elections and a referendum in May. However, lack of agreement on key issues and logistical challenges made this timeline unlikely, dampening market confidence in elections by mid-2026.
US and Ukraine discuss possible May elections linked to peace deal referendum
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%5%
US and Ukrainian officials discussed holding national elections alongside a referendum on a peace deal in May 2026. However, no official election scheduling occurred, and legal and security challenges remained, maintaining market uncertainty and low prices for elections in 2026.
U.S. Pushes for March Peace Deal and May Elections in Ukraine
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%4%
Reports emerged that U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators discussed a framework where a peace deal would be submitted to a referendum alongside national elections in May 2026, driven by pressure from the Trump administration.
US and Ukrainian negotiators discuss ambitious March peace deal and quick elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
US and Ukrainian officials discussed a potential peace deal by March 2026 with quick elections thereafter, but lack of agreement on territorial issues and ongoing conflict made this unlikely, influencing market uncertainty about election timing.
US pushes for quick peace deal and elections in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 jumps to 30%8%
US sources reported aiming for a March peace deal in Ukraine followed by quick elections, signaling international pressure on Ukraine to hold elections soon. This raised market speculation about elections in 2026, temporarily increasing probabilities.
Ukrainian delegation arrives in US for peace talks amid Russian attacks on energy sites
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
A Ukrainian delegation led by President Zelenskyy's chief of staff arrived in the US to discuss peace agreement details, highlighting ongoing conflict and instability that likely delayed elections. This reinforced market doubts about elections occurring in 2025.
U.S. and Ukraine discuss March‑May peace deal and possible May 2026 elections
December 31, 2026 jumps to 31%8%
U.S. and Ukrainian officials discussed a joint peace‑deal and the possibility of holding national elections in May 2026. The talk raised hopes that elections could occur within the market’s window, causing the “Yes” price for the December‑31‑2026 outcome to rebound from a low of 23 % to 31 % over the next week.
US and Ukraine Discuss Ambitious March Peace Deal and May Elections
June 30, 2026 rises to 11%2%
Negotiators discussed a framework where a peace deal would be submitted to a referendum alongside national elections, potentially in May 2026. This fueled speculation of a near-term vote, driving up the probability of a mid-2026 election.
US and Ukraine Discuss Ambitious March Peace Deal and May Elections
December 31, 2026 jumps to 34%11%
Negotiators from the US and Ukraine discussed a framework where a peace deal would be submitted to a referendum alongside national elections, potentially in May 2026.
Zelenskyy says cease‑fire must precede any election announcement
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
Zelenskyy told reporters that Ukraine would not announce any election plans before a cease‑fire is secured, pushing back on a Financial Times story that suggested an election could be announced on the invasion’s anniversary. The denial removed speculation of a near‑term vote, driving the market’s price for the December‑31, 2026 outcome down from 34 % to 28 % within a week.
U.S., Ukraine discuss March peace deal and possible May elections
December 31, 2026 jumps to 34%11%
Reuters reported that U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators were discussing a March deadline for a peace deal and the possibility of holding national elections and a referendum in May. The news raised expectations that elections could occur in 2025, pushing the market’s “December 31, 2026” probability up from about 23 % on 2026‑02‑10 to roughly 34 % on 2026‑02‑11.
US and Ukraine discuss March peace deal and simultaneous elections referendum
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%8%
US and Ukrainian officials discussed a framework for a peace deal referendum and national elections possibly occurring simultaneously in May 2026, indicating no elections planned within 2025 and shifting market expectations further away from 2025 elections.
US aims for March peace deal and quick elections in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 jumps to 34%6%
US and Ukrainian officials discussed holding national elections alongside a referendum on a peace deal in May, but sources considered the timeline unrealistic. This discussion briefly raised market hopes for elections but was tempered by doubts about feasibility.
U.S. and Ukraine discuss May election as part of peace‑deal framework
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%6%
Reuters reported that U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators discussed a possible May election and referendum as part of a peace deal. The mention of a concrete timeframe raised hopes that an election could happen before the market’s June‑30 deadline, temporarily lifting the June‑30 price to 18 % before it fell back to 12 % later that week.
US and Ukraine discuss May elections and peace referendum amid peace talks
June 30, 2026 jumps to 18%10%
US and Ukrainian officials discussed holding national elections and a peace deal referendum simultaneously in May 2026 as part of a peace framework. This raised market hopes for elections soon but did not guarantee elections within 2025, causing a temporary price increase for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
US and Ukrainian officials discuss peace deal with quick elections and referendum
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%5%
Sources reported that US and Ukrainian negotiators were discussing a peace deal framework that would include a referendum and national elections, possibly in May 2026, signaling international pressure and planning for elections post-ceasefire but not within the 2025 window.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy meets with pope and European leaders amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%10%
Zelenskyy engaged in diplomatic meetings to discuss peace proposals, signaling ongoing conflict and no immediate election plans. The talks underscored the war's continuation, which maintains the postponement of elections under martial law, negatively impacting market confidence in elections occurring in 2025.
US and Ukrainian officials discuss March peace deal and May elections referendum
June 30, 2026 jumps to 17%9%
Reports emerged that US and Ukrainian negotiators aimed for a March peace deal and simultaneous national elections and referendum in May 2026, raising market expectations for elections in the near term. However, the timeline was considered ambitious due to unresolved territorial issues and logistical challenges.
US and Ukrainian Negotiators Discuss Ambitious March Peace Deal and May Elections
June 30, 2026 surges to 24%16%
Reports emerged that US negotiators were pushing for a peace agreement by March and rapid Ukrainian national elections by May 2026, causing a sharp spike in market speculation.
US and Ukraine Negotiators Discuss Ambitious March Peace Deal and May Elections
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%4%
Reports emerged that U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators discussed a framework where a peace deal would be submitted to a referendum alongside national elections, potentially in May.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials discuss May elections and peace referendum
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%4%
U.S. and Ukrainian officials reportedly discussed holding national elections and a peace deal referendum in May 2026, raising short-term market hopes despite legal and security challenges that ultimately prevented elections.
U.S. aims for March peace deal and quick Ukrainian elections, sources say
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%10%
Reuters reported that U.S. negotiators were pushing for a quick peace deal and “quick elections” in Ukraine, suggesting a May‑June election window. The market price for the June 30 2026 outcome fell to a low of 2 % (Apr 4), showing reduced confidence that elections would happen soon.
U.S.-brokered Ukraine peace talks resume in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%13%
U.S. officials confirmed that a new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine would take place in Abu Dhabi, suggesting a possible diplomatic breakthrough that could lead to a settlement and trigger early elections.
U.S. military delegation arrives in Kyiv amid Ukraine corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
A senior U.S. military delegation arrived in Kyiv to revive peace efforts while Ukraine faced a $100 million corruption scandal, increasing political uncertainty and reducing confidence in timely elections.
Ukraine, Russia, and US hold trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%8%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US discussed possible parameters for ending the war, but key territorial issues remained unresolved, delaying election prospects.
Zelenskyy adjusts negotiating team following massive Russian strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%3%
Following a massive Russian attack on energy infrastructure, Zelenskyy stated that the work of the Ukrainian negotiating team would be adjusted, signaling that diplomatic efforts for peace were being severely hampered by continued military aggression.
Zelenskyy says U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine are 100% ready for signing
President Zelenskyy announced that a U.S. security‑guarantees document is fully prepared after two days of trilateral talks, suggesting stronger Western backing that could enable elections. The news coincided with a 12‑point drop in the market, indicating traders saw the promise as insufficient to overcome war‑time constraints.
Ukraine and Russia set dates for trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%10%
President Zelenskyy announced that trilateral peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. were scheduled for February 4-5 in Abu Dhabi, signaling a potential diplomatic push to end the war.
Ukraine suspends diesel imports from Hungary over pipeline dispute
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%12%
Hungary’s halt of diesel shipments heightened energy insecurity in Ukraine, signaling broader regional instability and further eroding expectations of a stable electoral environment in 2025.
Ukrainian Parliament forms working group to study elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
President Zelensky instructed the Verkhovna Rada to establish a working group to explore the possibility of holding presidential elections during martial law. This indicated initial steps toward considering elections despite ongoing conflict, causing a temporary increase in election probability.
US-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks resume amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%4%
A new round of US-brokered talks on ending Russia's war in Ukraine took place in Abu Dhabi, but key issues such as territorial control remained unresolved. The ongoing conflict and lack of agreement on peace terms diminished the likelihood of elections being held in Ukraine in 2025, as martial law and instability persisted.
Financial Times reports Zelenskyy to announce May elections and peace referendum under US pressure
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%8%
The Financial Times published a scoop claiming Ukrainian President Zelenskyy would announce elections and a referendum on a peace deal by mid-May, driven by US demands. This report initially increased market optimism about elections happening in 2025 but was later contradicted by Ukrainian officials.
Martial law extended until August 2026, pushing elections further out
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%3%
Ukraine's parliament extended martial law until August 2026, legally barring elections during this period and reinforcing market expectations that elections would not be held in 2025.
Zelenskyy signals openness to a demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine
Zelenskyy’s willingness to accept a demilitarized zone was seen as a concession that could prolong negotiations and delay any timetable for elections, further depressing market confidence.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announces U.S. security guarantees document is ready
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%10%
Zelenskyy stated that a U.S. security guarantees document for Ukraine was 100% ready after talks involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no election scheduling. This news influenced market perceptions about Ukraine's political stability and election prospects.
US and Ukraine discuss security framework amid ongoing war and peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%2%
Ongoing US-Ukraine talks on security guarantees and peace frameworks highlighted the complexity and uncertainty of ending the war, with no clear timeline for elections, contributing to market skepticism about elections in 2025.
U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine declared 100% ready for signing
President Zelenskyy said a U.S. security agreement was fully prepared after talks in Vilnius, signalling continued foreign support but also highlighting that a formal peace settlement – and thus the conditions for elections – remained unresolved, prompting a drop in election‑hold probabilities.
U.S.-led peace talks continue without agreement on election timing
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. continued in early 2026 with discussions on security guarantees and ceasefire possibilities, but no agreement was reached on holding elections within 2025. This prolonged uncertainty contributed to further decline in market confidence for elections by June 30, 2026.
Opposition leaders oppose elections during wartime
Opposition politicians Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko confirmed opposition to holding elections during wartime despite discussions with US representatives, reinforcing political resistance to elections under martial law and influencing market sentiment downward.
Martial law extended in Ukraine until February 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
The Verkhovna Rada extended martial law again until February 3, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and confirming that elections would not be held in 2025, leading to a sharp market decline in election probability.
Central Election Commission resumes operation of State Voter Register
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%1%
The Ukrainian Central Election Commission resumed the operation of the State Voter Register, indicating administrative preparations for future elections. This was interpreted as a sign of gradual election readiness, though no election date was set, maintaining market uncertainty about elections in 2025.
US, Russia, and Ukraine to hold trilateral talks in UAE, Zelenskyy says
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US were scheduled in the UAE to discuss peace and security issues. The ongoing negotiations suggested elections would not be held imminently in 2025, influencing market prices downward for a 2025 election.
Ukraine’s power grid faces unprecedented challenges amid ongoing Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%7%
Continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure during winter exacerbate humanitarian crises and complicate conditions for holding elections in 2025, reinforcing market skepticism reflected in price declines.
Market prices hit lows as no official election scheduling in 2025 emerges
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%22%
By late January 2026, market prices for both June 30 and December 31, 2026 outcomes fell sharply, reflecting consensus that no national elections were held in Ukraine during 2025 due to ongoing war and lack of official scheduling.
Central Election Commission chair highlights need for security and legal framework for elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
Oleh Didenko, Chair of Ukraine's Central Election Commission, emphasized that elections require an adequate security environment and adapted legal framework, underscoring that elections cannot be held until martial law ends and conditions improve.
Zelenskyy states elections impossible in Russian-occupied territories
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
President Zelenskyy confirmed that elections cannot be held in occupied regions, underscoring ongoing obstacles and reducing market confidence in near-term elections.
Ukrainian election officials emphasize need for security and legal framework before elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%6%
Oleh Didenko, Chair of the Central Election Commission, stated that elections require an adequate security environment and a legal framework adapted to post-war realities. This underscored the ongoing challenges and the improbability of elections in 2025, contributing to declining market confidence in that outcome.
Parliamentary working group to present election law draft by end‑Feb 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%4%
The parliamentary working group on election legislation reported it would deliver a draft by the end of February, suggesting a concrete timetable. The news lifted hopes for a 2025‑2026 vote and pushed the “December 31 2026” probability back up to 34 % on 23 January.
Next round of Ukraine-Russia-U.S. peace talks scheduled for February in Abu Dhabi
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
Peace talks were postponed to early February, with ongoing disagreements over territory and security guarantees, maintaining uncertainty over election timing and contributing to market price drops for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Ukraine Election Chief Warns of Enormous Challenges for Rushed Post-War Vote
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%5%
Central Election Commission head Oleh Didenko warned that updating voter registries and preparing infrastructure would take significant time, dampening hopes of a quick election even if a ceasefire is reached.
Ukraine's election chief warns against rushed post-war vote
June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
Oleh Didenko, head of Ukraine's Central Election Commission, highlighted the enormous challenges in organizing elections due to destroyed infrastructure, displaced voters, and the need for updated voter registries. He emphasized that a ceasefire and safe conditions are prerequisites for elections, dampening expectations for elections within the market's timeframe.
Ukraine’s power grid faces unprecedented challenges amid ongoing Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%5%
Continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during winter highlight the ongoing conflict and instability, further reducing the likelihood of national elections being held in 2025.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%9%
European and Canadian leaders agreed to provide multilayered security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a peace proposal, but details remain unclear and fighting continues, delaying elections.
Parliament reaffirms elections cannot be held during martial law, pledges post-war presidential vote
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
In mid-January 2026, the Ukrainian parliament reaffirmed that elections are constitutionally banned during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the war ends. This official stance diminished market confidence in 2025 elections, reflected in price declines.
Zelenskyy reiterates elections impossible in Russian-occupied territories
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
President Zelenskyy stated that elections cannot be held in territories occupied by Russia, highlighting ongoing territorial and security challenges that complicate holding nationwide elections within 2025 or early 2026.
KIIS poll: Only 10 % of Ukrainians favor elections before ceasefire
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%15%
A KIIS poll released in January showed only 10 % of Ukrainians support elections before a ceasefire, further eroding optimism. The “June 30 2026” price fell sharply from 25 % on 2026‑01‑02 to 10 % on 2026‑01‑13.
BBC: Zelenskyy still ready for elections but no security guarantees
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%2%
BBC coverage reiterated that while Zelenskyy remained “ready” for elections, no security guarantees had materialized and martial law remained in force, cementing market sentiment that a 2025 election was unlikely. The price settled at 9 %.
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law, delaying elections beyond 2025
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%10%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law through August 2026, legally preventing national elections during this period and solidifying market expectations that elections would not occur in 2025 or early 2026.
Ukraine’s power grid faces unprecedented challenges from Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%5%
Russia intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during winter, worsening humanitarian conditions and undermining stability needed for elections.
Martial law extension through August 2025 maintains election suspension
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%6%
The Verkhovna Rada extended martial law, legally prohibiting national elections during this period, reinforcing market expectations that elections would not occur in 2025 or early 2026.
Ukraine's political instability and war conditions reduce chances of 2025 elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%15%
Political rivalries, corruption scandals, and ongoing war conditions continued to undermine prospects for elections within the market's resolution window, pushing prices to new lows.
Former army chief Zaluzhnyi reveals rift with Zelenskyy
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%7%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s interview exposing a personal and strategic clash with the president suggested potential political fragmentation, undermining confidence that a unified government could organize elections in 2025.
Martial law extensions and political opposition maintain election postponement
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%3%
Continued extensions of martial law and opposition from key political figures against wartime elections sustained the legal and political barriers, leading to further market price declines for 2025 elections.
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law and mobilization until May 4, 2026
The parliament approved the extension of martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days, continuing the legal barrier to holding national elections within the market's resolution window.
Ukraine extends martial law and general mobilization until May 4, 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
The Verkhovna Rada extended martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days, reinforcing the legal barrier against holding national elections during this period. This extension maintained the prohibition on elections under martial law, reducing market confidence in elections occurring by June 30, 2026.
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law and mobilization until May 4, 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%16%
The Ukrainian parliament approved the 18th extension of martial law, pushing the legal ban on holding any national elections further into the spring of 2026.
Martial law extended again until May 4, 2026, further delaying elections
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%11%
In mid-January 2026, the Verkhovna Rada extended martial law and general mobilization until May 4, 2026, legally preventing elections before that date. This extension reinforced market expectations that elections would not occur by June 30, 2026.
Ukraine's election chief warns against rushed post-war vote amid infrastructure and displacement challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
On January 14, 2026, Ukraine's Central Election Commission chair Oleh Didenko cautioned that organizing elections post-war would face enormous challenges due to shattered infrastructure and displaced populations, signaling that elections in 2025 were unlikely and influencing market prices downward.
Ukraine to hold elections after peace agreement signed
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%3%
Ukraine announced plans to hold elections after signing a peace agreement, boosting market confidence for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Zelenskyy conducts major government reshuffle, signals new election strategy
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%10%
Zelenskyy announced a major cabinet reshuffle, emphasizing a new approach to governance and hinting at preparations for future elections. The market reacted with a sharp fall in the June‑30‑2026 price (from 20 % on 2026‑01‑06 to 10 % on 2026‑01‑13), reflecting skepticism that any election could happen soon.
Zelensky says legal hurdles keep elections out of reach
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%13%
Zelensky reiterated that without a clear legal pathway, elections remain impossible, sending the “June 30 2026” odds to a new low of 9 % on 12 Jan 2026.
Analysts and Officials Highlight Severe Logistical Obstacles to Wartime Voting
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%12%
As discussions continued, the immense practical challenges of holding elections—such as millions of displaced refugees, power blackouts, and frontline voting—became dominant, causing the probability of a mid-2026 election to plummet.
Zelenskyy reiterates readiness for elections if security and legal conditions met
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
President Zelenskyy stated he is ready to hold elections within 60-90 days if security and legal conditions are ensured, but martial law remains in place, keeping the market skeptical about elections in 2025 or early 2026.
Market reflects skepticism as Zelensky requests election legislation amid ongoing war
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%12%
Zelensky asked his party to prepare legislation for elections despite martial law, but ongoing conflict and security concerns kept market prices low for elections by mid-2026.
Experts say elections unlikely before March 2026 due to legal and security hurdles
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%11%
Analysts noted that even if preparations began, elections could not realistically be held before March 2026 due to the need for parliamentary approval, candidate registration, and campaigning, reinforcing market skepticism about 2025 elections.
Ukrainian former army chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi reveals rift with Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 plunges to 17%17%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a popular former army chief and potential political rival, publicly disclosed tensions with President Zelenskyy, signaling political challenges that could affect election prospects and market confidence.
U.S. and Ukraine continue talks on security framework for peace deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%4%
American and Ukrainian officials held ongoing discussions on a security framework to end the war, with no final agreement yet, maintaining uncertainty about election timing in Ukraine.
Zelenskyy announces plan to hold elections after security agreement is ratified
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%
Zelenskyy stated that elections would be scheduled once the U.S. security agreement is ratified by both the Ukrainian parliament and U.S. Congress, but the lack of a concrete date kept market sentiment low, further dragging prices down.
Zelensky reiterates elections impossible under current war and martial law conditions
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
Despite earlier statements, Zelensky and officials emphasized the practical impossibility of holding elections during ongoing war and martial law, contributing to market price declines for elections in 2025 and mid-2026.
Ukraine, Russia, and US hold trilateral peace talks in UAE
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US aimed at ending the war included discussions on ceasefire and security guarantees, but key territorial issues remained unresolved, maintaining uncertainty about elections in 2025.
No official election date set; constitutional and practical challenges remain
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%7%
Despite discussions and legislative efforts, no official election date was set for 2025, and significant practical obstacles such as displaced voters and ongoing conflict persisted, leading to declining market confidence in elections occurring within 2025.
Ukraine pushes draft wartime election law to allow voting during martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%6%
Ukraine advanced drafting a one-off wartime election law to enable secure voting for soldiers and displaced persons, signaling legislative progress but also highlighting ongoing challenges, which maintained market skepticism about elections in 2025.
Working group on election preparations meets to discuss legal and security issues
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
The Ukrainian parliamentary working group on elections during special or post-war periods met to discuss constitutional and legal limits, electoral infrastructure readiness, and security criteria for elections, indicating ongoing detailed preparations for future elections.
Market sentiment declines as no official election date announced amid ongoing war
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%6%
With no official scheduling of elections and continued martial law, market prices for elections in 2025 and mid-2026 declined sharply, reflecting diminished expectations for elections within the year.
Working group meeting advances election preparations amid ongoing martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
The working group on election legislation met to discuss security criteria, electoral rights of military personnel, and participation of displaced persons, signaling ongoing efforts to prepare for elections post-war. However, no official election date was set, maintaining market skepticism about elections occurring in 2025.
Parliament delays vote on constitutional amendment to permit elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%6%
Reports indicated that the Verkhovna Rada was set to debate a constitutional amendment to allow elections under martial law, but the discussion stalled. The lack of progress caused a slight rebound in the “December 31 2026” odds in early January.
Russia intensifies drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%4%
Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, worsening humanitarian conditions and complicating prospects for elections within 2025, leading to market price declines for election outcomes.
Working group meets to prepare legislative proposals for elections in special or post-war periods
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%2%
On January 8, 2026, a working group including parliament, president's office, military, and election commission met to develop comprehensive proposals for organizing elections during or after wartime, showing continued legislative preparation but no election held yet.
Parliamentary working group continues discussions on election legislation amid war
December 31, 2026 dips to 40%2%
The working group held meetings to refine election procedures and address challenges such as displaced persons and security, showing ongoing legislative efforts but no election scheduling.
Ukraine’s election prospects dim as Russian strikes continue
June 30, 2026 drops to 11%14%
Reuters reported that continued Russian attacks and the lack of a legal framework kept the probability of a 2025 election extremely low, pushing the market’s “Yes” price to a new low of 11 %.
Working Group holds meeting on election legislation during special or post-war periods
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
On January 8, 2026, a parliamentary working group met to prepare legislative proposals for organizing elections and referendums during special or post-war periods. The meeting highlighted the complexity and legal constraints of holding elections under martial law, reinforcing market doubts about 2025 elections.
Verkhovna Rada Working Group Convenes to Discuss Legal Limits of Post-War Elections
A parliamentary working group met to establish subgroups and analyze the constitutional, security, and logistical limits of organizing elections during a special or post-war period.
Zelensky says legislative changes for elections possible if peace deal reached
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
President Zelensky stated that if Ukraine and the US reach a peace agreement in January, legislative changes to allow elections could be adopted in February, indicating conditional prospects for elections post-ceasefire.
Zelenskyy signals preparations to amend election laws depending on peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 40%4%
President Zelenskyy announced that preparations to amend legislation on elections and referendums could begin in February 2026, contingent on progress in peace negotiations, indicating that elections would not be held imminently but are being planned for the post-war period.
Zelenskyy urges parliament to prepare for elections after ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%2%
President Zelenskyy urged parliament to prepare legislative changes to hold elections within 90 days after a ceasefire, indicating readiness but contingent on war ending. This reinforced market expectations that elections would not occur in 2025 but possibly later in 2026.
President Zelenskyy links election law changes to peace deal progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%5%
In early January 2026, Zelenskyy stated that if peace and security agreements were reached, legislative changes to allow elections could be adopted in February, but no election date was set, keeping market prices low for near-term elections.
Central Election Commission Approves Proposals for Post-Martial Law Elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%16%
The Central Election Commission approved a set of proposals on organizing nationwide elections after martial law is lifted, signaling structured progress on the electoral framework.
Zelenskyy reiterates readiness for elections if peace and security guarantees achieved
President Zelenskyy stated that if peace and security guarantees were agreed upon with Washington in January 2026, legislative changes could be adopted in February to allow elections, but no election date was set within 2025.
Zelenskyy says lawmakers could start preparing election law changes in February
December 31, 2026 dips to 41%3%
Zelenskyy indicated that parliament might begin drafting changes to election legislation in February 2026, but stressed that this depends on peace negotiations, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and delaying election prospects.
Central Election Commission approves proposals for elections after martial law ends
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%4%
The CEC approved proposals for organizing elections post-martial law, reinforcing that elections during martial law remain legally blocked, which decreased market confidence in 2025 elections.
Poll shows only 10% of Ukrainians support elections before war ends
A KIIS poll indicated that a vast majority of Ukrainians opposed holding elections during the ongoing war, reinforcing the political and public resistance to elections under martial law and contributing to market declines in election probabilities.
U.S. and European leaders discuss security guarantees and peace efforts for Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%2%
European and Canadian leaders met to discuss U.S.-led peace efforts including security guarantees for Ukraine, indicating ongoing negotiations but no immediate elections, which dampened market expectations for 2025 elections.
Poll shows majority of Ukrainians oppose elections before war ends
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%7%
A KIIS poll reported that only 10% of Ukrainians supported elections before the war ended, with 59% favoring elections only after a final peace agreement. This public sentiment dampened market expectations for elections in 2025.
Ukrainian parliament faction leader expects election bill regulating wartime elections by end of February
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
Davyd Arakhamiia expressed hope that the text of a bill regulating elections under martial law could be completed by the end of February 2026, signaling ongoing legislative progress toward enabling elections despite martial law.
Zelensky proposes joint referendum and election within 90 days of ceasefire
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%6%
Zelenskyy told parliament that a referendum and a presidential election could be held on the same day within 90 days after a ceasefire. The proposal, while ambitious, underscored continuing legal uncertainty, further eroding confidence in a 2025 election.
Parliament faction leader suggests elections possible within 90 days after ceasefire
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%6%
David Arakhamia indicated elections and a referendum could be held within 90 days after a ceasefire, but only after martial law ends, keeping market expectations low for 2025 elections.
Zelensky says parliamentary proposals on election law could be ready by February
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
Zelensky indicated that parliament could adopt election‑related proposals in February, renewing optimism and lifting the "December 31 2026" price (from ~35 % on Jan 12 to ~38 % on Jan 16).
Ukrainian parliament leaders announce draft election law to be presented by end of February
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%3%
On January 3, 2026, Ukrainian parliamentary leaders stated that a draft law regulating elections under martial law would be ready by the end of February, with elections planned no later than 90 days after a ceasefire. This indicated ongoing preparations but no immediate election scheduling, contributing to market uncertainty and price decline for 2025 elections.
Zelenskyy says election‑law draft could be ready in weeks
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%5%
Zelenskyy told a parliamentary committee that a law allowing elections under martial law could be prepared within weeks, but no concrete timetable was set, keeping market sentiment low.
Zelensky proposes holding election and referendum together
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%5%
Zelensky reiterated that an election and referendum could be held on the same day, feeding speculation of a 2026 election and causing the December‑31, 2026 price to fall toward the low‑30s.
Head of Zelensky's faction suggests elections could be held within 90 days after ceasefire
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%5%
David Arakhamia stated that elections and a referendum might be held within 90 days after a ceasefire, implying elections in 2025 are unlikely and pushing expectations into 2026 or later, which aligned with market price declines.
Parliament leader says election and referendum possible within 90 days after ceasefire
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%5%
David Arakhamia, head of Zelensky's faction, stated elections and a referendum could be held within 90 days after a ceasefire, indicating conditional readiness but dependent on peace progress, keeping market uncertainty high.
Parliament forms group to assess elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
Ukraine's ruling party leader announced formation of a parliamentary working group to consider holding presidential elections during martial law, signaling ongoing debate but no immediate election date, contributing to market uncertainty.
Ukraine Parliament Leaders Outline Plan to Draft Election Bill by Late February
Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk and faction leader David Arakhamia announced that a draft law on holding wartime elections and a referendum could be presented by the end of February, though actual voting would require a ceasefire.
Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid security and peace focus
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%6%
President Zelenskyy appointed Gen. Kyrylo Budanov as his new chief of staff to sharpen focus on security, defense, and peace talks, signaling ongoing war conditions and political challenges delaying elections.
Martial law extended again, elections remain constitutionally banned
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%7%
Martial law in Ukraine was extended again, continuing the constitutional ban on holding national elections during this period. This legal reality solidified market expectations that elections would not occur in 2025 or early 2026, pushing prices lower for both June and December 2026 outcomes.
Draft wartime election law submitted to Verkhovna Rada
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%12%
A draft wartime election law was formally submitted to parliament, marking the first concrete legislative step toward an election. The market’s “June 30 2026” price fell further (to 9 %) as the timeline appeared to push any vote into 2026 rather than 2025.
Martial law extension continues to block national elections in Ukraine
June 30, 2026 drops to 20%10%
The ongoing extension of martial law legally prohibits national elections, reinforcing the market's downward adjustment of election likelihood within 2025 and early 2026.
No official scheduling of Ukraine elections in 2025 amid war and political crisis
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%9%
Despite ongoing peace talks and diplomatic efforts, Ukraine did not officially schedule national elections within 2025. Political instability, including a $100 million corruption scandal implicating top officials, weakened President Zelenskyy’s position and further diminished prospects for elections in 2025.
Ukraine holds prisoner exchange amid ongoing war and infrastructure attacks
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%5%
Despite ongoing war and Russian attacks on infrastructure, Ukraine conducted prisoner exchanges, showing continued conflict and instability, which delayed elections.
EU officials say NATO‑backed security guarantees for Ukraine remain pending
EU diplomats confirmed that the promised NATO‑backed security guarantees for Ukraine had not yet been formalized, reinforcing market fears that without external security Ukraine could not safely hold elections in 2025.
Ukraine endures severe winter amid Russian attacks on power infrastructure
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure caused widespread power outages during a harsh winter, exacerbating the country’s crisis and complicating prospects for holding elections in 2025.
Verkhovna Rada forms special working group to draft legislation for presidential election under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%11%
The parliament formed a special working group to draft legislation for a presidential election under martial law, but this was acknowledged as unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, confirming no 2025 elections.
Ukraine appoints new chief of staff focusing on security and peace talks amid war and political turmoil
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%7%
Zelenskyy appointed Gen. Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff to sharpen focus on security, defense, and peace talks, reflecting ongoing war conditions and political instability that make holding elections in 2025 unlikely.
Ukrainian parliamentary working group begins drafting wartime election legislation
December 31, 2026 dips to 41%4%
A parliamentary working group started meeting to develop legal frameworks for holding elections during or after the war, signaling progress but also highlighting ongoing legal hurdles. This tempered market expectations for near-term elections.
Verkhovna Rada forms working group to draft presidential election bill under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%5%
Ukraine's parliament formed a special working group to prepare legislation for holding a presidential election during martial law, but this was seen as unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, confirming no elections would be held that year.
Ukrainian election working group convenes to draft wartime election law
December 31, 2026 rises to 47%3%
A parliamentary working group began meeting to draft legislation for elections during or after the war, indicating progress on legal frameworks but also ongoing uncertainty about timing.
Ukrainian parliament creates working group to plan election under martial law
June 30, 2026 drops to 27%5%
The parliament formed a special working group to draft legislation for holding a presidential election under martial law, signalling preparation but no concrete date, which kept market confidence low and helped push the “June 30 2026” probability down from 32 % on 2025‑12‑12 to 27 % on 2025‑12‑23.
Working group formed to prepare election legislation for wartime and post-war periods
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%1%
Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada established a working group chaired by Oleksandr Korniienko to develop legislative proposals for organizing elections during special or post-war periods. This indicated preparations for future elections but underscored that elections during martial law remain legally and practically unfeasible, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines for 2025 election outcomes.
Working group formed to draft election law for wartime and post-war conditions
December 31, 2026 dips to 42%4%
Ukraine's parliament established a working group to develop legislation for organizing elections during and after the war, indicating preparatory steps but no immediate election date.
Parliament forms working group to draft wartime election law
June 30, 2026 dips to 20%3%
A parliamentary working group on wartime elections met for the first time, confirming that legislation would not be ready before spring 2026. The news caused a further slide in the June‑30 “Yes” price.
Ukrainian parliament forms working group to prepare election law under martial law
The Verkhovna Rada formed a special working group to prepare legislation allowing presidential elections during martial law, signaling technical preparations but no immediate election scheduling, maintaining market skepticism about elections in 2025.
Ukraine forms working group to prepare elections and referendum
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
The Verkhovna Rada's First Deputy Chairman announced the formation of a working group to prepare for elections and a referendum, signaling administrative steps toward eventual elections but not immediate scheduling, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and contributing to market fluctuations.
Ukraine's parliament forms working group to prepare election legislation during martial law
The Verkhovna Rada established a working group to draft legislative proposals for conducting elections during martial law, marking the first formal step toward enabling elections despite ongoing martial law, but no election date was set.
Ukraine’s election working group holds inaugural meeting
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%5%
The first online meeting of the election‑working group took place, signaling concrete legislative progress. The market reacted with a brief bounce for the December‑2026 outcome (price moved from 46 % on 2025‑12‑30 to 41 % on 2026‑01‑04), reflecting renewed optimism for a 2026 vote.
Parliament forms working group to prepare election law during martial law
December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%14%
The Verkhovna Rada announced the first online meeting of a working group to draft legislation for elections under martial law. The news signalled that a legal pathway might be opening, causing the December‑2026 outcome price to climb from 34 % to 48 % over the following week.
Opposition leaders confirm opposition to wartime elections
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%9%
On March 6, 2025, opposition politicians Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko confirmed their opposition to holding elections during wartime, aligning with the parliamentary consensus and further diminishing market expectations for elections in 2025.
US and Ukraine reach consensus on key issues including postwar elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 40%2%
The US and Ukraine agreed on critical issues aimed at ending the war, including a draft proposal requiring Ukraine to hold elections after signing a peace agreement, indicating elections would occur post-conflict, reducing near-term election probability.
Polls show Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi leading in hypothetical presidential election
Polls indicated Zelenskyy and former military commander Zaluzhnyi as leading candidates if elections were held soon, reflecting political dynamics but not affecting the legal impossibility of 2025 elections under martial law.
Poll shows Zelenskyy would win if elections held now
A SOCIS poll indicated that President Zelenskyy would remain the most popular candidate if elections were held imminently, providing some political context but not directly affecting the legal or security constraints preventing elections.
Poll shows Zelensky and General Zaluzhnyi leading hypothetical presidential election
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%1%
A SOCIS poll indicated that if elections were held soon, Zelensky and former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi would advance to a runoff, reflecting Zelensky's sustained popularity despite wartime challenges. This poll influenced market perceptions of election outcomes and timing.
Ukraine drafts one‑off wartime election law
June 30, 2026 drops to 23%7%
The Central Election Commission published a draft one‑off wartime election law, signalling that any election would be months away and required extensive parliamentary debate. The market interpreted this as a delay, driving the June‑30 “Yes” price down sharply.
Ukrainian CEC says it will keep refining wartime election proposals
June 30, 2026 jumps to 32%9%
The CEC announced it would continue updating draft proposals for wartime elections, keeping the political debate alive. This modest news helped sustain the market’s belief that a 2025 election remained unlikely, keeping the “June 30 2026” price low.
Ukraine drafting one-off wartime election law for secure voting
December 31, 2026 dips to 42%1%
Ukraine began drafting a special wartime election law to enable secure and democratic voting for soldiers, displaced persons, and refugees abroad, indicating legislative efforts to facilitate elections despite martial law.
Ukraine drafts one-off wartime election law for secure voting
December 31, 2026 rises to 50%2%
Ukraine began drafting a one-off wartime election law to enable secure and democratic voting for soldiers, displaced persons, and refugees abroad, indicating ongoing efforts but no immediate election date.
Ukraine moves to draft wartime election law to allow voting during martial law
December 31, 2026 rises to 47%3%
The Kyiv Post reported that Ukraine began drafting a one‑off wartime election law, reinforcing the perception that a vote could be organized soon, and nudging the “December 31 2026” price modestly higher (to ~47 %).
Draft wartime election law presented to Ukrainian parliament
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%5%
The draft wartime election law was officially presented to parliament, outlining procedures for voting from front‑line zones and abroad. The concrete legislative proposal reduced uncertainty, pushing the “December 31 2026” price up to 52 % on 13 Nov 2025 (the pre‑peak), before later declines as political friction resurfaced.
Ukraine's Central Election Commission reopens voter register for first time since invasion
December 31, 2026 dips to 42%1%
The Central Election Commission restored the State Voter Register, a necessary step for holding elections, though officials maintained elections remain impossible under martial law. This development indicated administrative preparation for future elections but underscored ongoing legal and security challenges.
Ukraine drafts wartime election law to allow voting during martial law
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%6%
Ukraine's parliament approved the creation of a working group to draft a one-off law enabling secure and democratic elections during martial law, addressing voting challenges for soldiers and displaced citizens. This legislative move was a critical step but did not guarantee elections in 2025.
Parliament names four conditions that must be solved before wartime elections
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%14%
The Ukrainian parliament listed four concrete conditions that must be met before wartime elections could be held, highlighting the many logistical and legal hurdles. The clarification that elections were still far from certain caused the market’s “June 30 2026” probability to fall sharply to about 9 % by early January.
Parliament outlines conditions for holding elections during wartime
December 31, 2026 dips to 41%3%
The Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada outlined key issues to resolve for wartime elections, including military voting, displaced citizens' suffrage, voting in Russian-controlled territories, and presence of foreign observers, highlighting ongoing challenges.
Zelenskyy urges parliament to prepare wartime‑election legislation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 45%7%
Zelenskyy announced he would ask parliament to draft legislation allowing voting under martial law. The announcement revived hopes of an early vote, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability up from 38 % to 45 % in the following week.
Ukraine Begins Drafting One-Off Wartime Election Law
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%1%
Ukrainian officials confirmed they are drafting a specific, one-time legislative framework to address the logistical challenges of voting for soldiers and refugees during martial law.
Ukraine's parliament creates working group to draft wartime election law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 23%16%
The Verkhovna Rada set up a working group – chaired by First Deputy Speaker Oleksandr Korniienko – to draft a one‑off wartime election law. The concrete step toward legal preparation further lowered the chance of a 2026 election, causing the “June 30 2026” line to fall sharply.
Ukrainian Parliament Establishes Working Group to Assess Wartime Elections
June 30, 2026 rises to 28%4%
The Verkhovna Rada formed a working group to draft legislation and assess the legal and practical feasibility of holding a presidential election under martial law.
Ukraine Parliament Forms Working Group on Possible Presidential Election
Ukraine's parliament formed a working group to study the possibility of holding a presidential election, signaling some political interest in electoral reform despite constitutional barriers.
Parliament speaker creates working group to draft wartime election law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%16%
Stefanchuk announced the creation of a working group to draft legislation allowing elections during wartime, raising hopes that a vote could be scheduled before 2026 and pushing the June‑30, 2026 price down further.
Parliament creates working group to draft wartime election law
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%5%
Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced the creation of a working group to draft legislation allowing elections during wartime. The news gave a brief hope that an election could be moved earlier, causing a short rebound in the December‑31, 2026 price before the market re‑asserted the low probability.
Ukraine’s parliament begins preparations to organize presidential elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
The Ukrainian parliament formed a working group to fast-track election preparations despite martial law, indicating political will to hold elections post-war. However, no official election date was set within 2025, maintaining market uncertainty.
Ukrainian Parliament Establishes Working Group to Assess Wartime Election Legislation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 47%6%
The Verkhovna Rada formed a cross-party working group to draft a one-off law that would allow presidential elections to be held under martial law, formalizing the legislative process.
Ukraine’s parliament creates working group to draft wartime election law
December 31, 2026 rises to 48%3%
Parliament announced the formation of a special working group to draft a one‑off wartime election law. The news improved prospects for a later election, causing a modest rise in the December‑2026 outcome (price rose from 45 % on 2025‑12‑22 to 48 % on 2025‑12‑30).
Ukrainian parliament forms working group to prepare election legislation under martial law
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%5%
The Verkhovna Rada established a working group to draft legislation for holding elections during martial law, chaired by First Deputy Speaker Oleksandr Korniienko. This development indicated technical preparation for elections despite ongoing martial law, causing some market fluctuations.
Parliament speaker signs order to prepare draft law on wartime elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%3%
The speaker of the Ukrainian parliament signed an order to establish a working group to prepare draft legislation on holding elections during wartime, indicating legislative progress but no election date set yet.
Ukraine's parliament forms working group to draft wartime election law
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%1%
The Ukrainian parliament established a cross-party working group to draft legislation enabling elections during martial law, reflecting serious legislative efforts to hold elections despite ongoing conflict. This was a significant step but also highlighted the complexity and uncertainty of the process.
Ukrainian parliament creates working group on wartime elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 48%1%
Parliament formed a working group to prepare a legislative proposal for elections under martial law, with the first online meeting slated for 26 Dec. The concrete step towards legalising an election hardened market expectations that a vote could happen before the end of 2025, nudging the December‑31‑2026 price higher (to 48 % on Dec 5 2025).
Parliament speaker says wartime election law will be one‑off
December 31, 2026 rises to 48%1%
Speaker Stefanchuk said a special law for wartime elections would apply only once, signalling that a legal pathway was being seriously pursued. The market reacted with a modest rise in the December‑31‑2026 price (to 48 % on Dec 5 2025).
Ukraine's parliament initiates working group to draft wartime election law
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%7%
The Verkhovna Rada formed a special working group to prepare a bill on holding a presidential election under martial law, showing technical preparation but highlighting the immense legal hurdles.
Ukraine's parliament orders draft bill for elections after Trump urges holding elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%1%
Following calls from former U.S. President Trump to hold elections, President Zelenskyy expressed readiness to amend laws and ordered parliament to draft a bill for elections within 60–90 days. This political move raised hopes for elections but faced legal and security challenges, causing mixed market reactions and eventual declines in election probabilities.
Ukrainian parliament begins preparations for possible elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
By late December 2025, the Verkhovna Rada formed a working group to draft legislation for holding presidential elections during martial law, signaling legal groundwork but no immediate election date. This cautious approach reflected ongoing uncertainty and contributed to market declines in election probability.
Ukrainian parliament forms group to draft wartime election law
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%2%
Parliament created a working group to draft a one‑off wartime election law, signalling concrete steps toward legalising a vote and nudging the “December 31 2026” probability upward (from ~42 % to ~44 % by 25 Dec).
Ukrainian parliament creates working group to study wartime elections
June 30, 2026 jumps to 30%6%
Parliament announced the formation of a working group to draft legislation for elections during martial law. The news gave markets a brief lift, with the “June 30 2026” price rising to 30 % on 29 Dec 2025.
Ukrainian Parliament Sets Up Working Group to Draft One-Off Wartime Election Law
June 30, 2026 rises to 28%4%
Speaker Stefanchuk announced a special cross-party working group to draft a separate, one-off law for holding elections under martial law, signaling a structured but slow legislative process.
Ukrainian Parliament Forms Working Group to Draft Wartime Election Legislation
June 30, 2026 drops to 20%6%
The Verkhovna Rada established a working group to prepare draft legislation for holding a presidential election under martial law, signaling concrete legislative steps toward a potential vote.
President Zelenskyy states elections impossible in Russian-occupied territories
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Zelenskyy publicly declared that elections cannot be held in territories occupied by Russia and rejected Russian President Putin's calls for elections, citing security and legitimacy concerns. This reinforced the legal and practical barriers to holding national elections in 2025, negatively impacting market confidence in elections occurring by June 30, 2026.
Russian missile strike kills eight in Odesa, raising election security worries
December 31, 2026 dips to 41%3%
A large Russian missile strike on Odesa heightened security concerns, pushing the market back toward pessimism and pulling the "December 31 2026" odds down from ~44 % to ~41 % on Dec 25‑25.
Zelenskyy states elections impossible in Russian-occupied territories
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%5%
President Zelensky declared that elections cannot be held in territories occupied by Russia, citing risks of interference and lack of control, further complicating prospects for nationwide elections within 2025.
Zelenskyy states elections impossible in Russian-occupied territories
June 30, 2026 dips to 20%3%
President Zelensky emphasized that elections cannot be held in territories occupied by Russia, highlighting the challenges of legitimacy and security, which further reduced market confidence in elections by mid-2026.
Zelenskyy: Elections impossible in Russian‑occupied Ukrainian territories
June 30, 2026 drops to 27%7%
Zelenskyy told reporters that elections cannot be held in Russian‑occupied territories, underscoring logistical impossibility. The “June 30 2026” price slid from 34 % on 2025‑12‑12 to 27 % on 2025‑12‑23, reflecting heightened scepticism.
Zelenskyy Declares Elections Impossible in Russian-Occupied Territories
December 31, 2026 dips to 42%2%
Zelenskyy pushed back against Vladimir Putin's election demands, stating that a presidential election cannot be held in territories temporarily occupied by Russia.
Zelenskyy rejects Putin's claims on election timing and format in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
President Zelenskyy stated that election timing and format are Ukraine's sovereign decisions, rejecting Russian President Putin's assertions and interference attempts, maintaining political uncertainty about elections during ongoing conflict.
Parliament extends martial law and mobilisation to Feb 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 20%4%
Parliament voted to extend martial law again (until 3 Feb 2026) and simultaneously supported a draft law on the extension of mobilisation. The repeated extensions reinforced the view that elections remain impossible in 2025, pushing the June‑30‑2026 price further down to 20 % on Jan 6 2026.
Ukrainian parliament rejects Russian observers for upcoming elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
Ukraine's parliament withdrew invitation to Russian observers citing security concerns, reflecting political tensions and complicating international election monitoring, impacting market confidence.
Ukrainian parliament postpones election law amendment amid political infighting
The Verkhovna Rada delayed a key amendment that would set the legal framework for 2025 elections, signaling internal disagreement and pushing back expectations for a definitive election date.
Putin offers to consider security guarantees for Ukrainian elections, demands voting rights for Ukrainians in Russia
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%5%
Russian President Putin stated readiness to consider security for elections in Ukraine but demanded that millions of Ukrainians residing in Russia be allowed to vote there. This complicated the prospects for elections and contributed to market uncertainty and eventual decline in election probability.
Central Election Commission discusses election procedures for wartime and post-war conditions
December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%7%
On December 18, 2025, Ukraine's Central Election Commission held meetings to discuss organizing elections during special wartime conditions and after the war, showing ongoing preparations but no confirmed election date.
Ukrainian Parliament initiates working group on referendum and elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 46%3%
The Verkhovna Rada announced the formation of a special working group to explore the legal and practical feasibility of holding a presidential election under martial law.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet to discuss Ukraine security guarantees and reconstruction
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%7%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Trump to discuss security guarantees and economic agreements, including territorial issues and elections. The talks indicated progress but no firm election date in 2025, contributing to market uncertainty.
Kyiv Denies Reports of Scheduled February 24 Election Announcement
December 31, 2026 rises to 46%2%
The Ukrainian government officially denied rumors and reports that a national election would be announced for February 24, reiterating that security remains the paramount prerequisite.
Ukrainian parliament forms working group to draft wartime election law
December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%5%
The Verkhovna Rada established a working group to prepare draft legislation allowing elections during martial law, signaling legislative progress but also highlighting the complexity and one-off nature of such laws.
Putin offers to consider election security on voting day
December 31, 2026 dips to 42%4%
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated Russia might refrain from strikes deep inside Ukraine on election day and demanded Ukrainians residing in Russia be allowed to vote. This was seen as a political move but raised concerns in Ukraine about election legitimacy and security.
Zelenskyy: Will run only if election held amid war, unsure about peacetime vote
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%7%
In an interview Zelenskyy said he would run only if elections were held during the war, expressing uncertainty about peacetime voting. This dampened market optimism, contributing to the drop from 48 % on 2025‑12‑03 to 41 % on 2026‑01‑02 for the “December 31 2026” outcome.
Czech government faces no-confidence vote amid Ukraine policy dispute
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%9%
The Czech government’s shift away from supporting Ukraine and internal political disputes reflect broader European political challenges that may affect support for Ukraine’s stability and elections. This event influenced market sentiment on Ukraine’s political future.
Russia launches massive drone‑missile strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
Russia fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Ukraine’s power grid, prompting Zelenskyy to warn that the attacks could delay any election timetable and further erode confidence in a 2025 vote.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms elections prohibited under martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 8%15%
Parliament voted to postpone any immediate legislative changes, reaffirming that elections cannot be held while martial law remains in effect. This reinforced the market’s view that a 2025 election was unlikely, pushing the “June 30 2026” price further down to a trough of 8 % on 24 Jan 2026.
Ukraine's Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%6%
President Zelenskyy appointed military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff to focus on security and peace talks, reflecting internal political challenges and impacting market confidence in timely elections.
Ukrainian parliament forms working group to study elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 47%5%
The Verkhovna Rada established a formal working group to explore the feasibility and legal framework for holding presidential elections during martial law. This bureaucratic step was seen as a response to domestic and international pressure but also raised skepticism about actual election timing, contributing to market uncertainty.
Experts warn elections unlikely within 90 days due to war and logistical challenges
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%9%
Election experts and officials highlighted immense challenges including martial law, displaced voters, damaged infrastructure, and ongoing conflict, dampening market optimism for elections in 2025.
Zelenskyy says he would run if election held during war, unsure about peacetime run
In an interview, Zelenskyy indicated willingness to run if elections occur during wartime but uncertainty about running in peacetime, reflecting political ambiguity and ongoing conflict impact on election prospects.
Ukraine signals readiness for elections if security and legal conditions met
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%3%
Ukraine stated readiness to hold elections demanded by US President Trump, conditional on international security guarantees and legal framework changes, highlighting ongoing challenges such as voter registration and military personnel voting rights during wartime.
Russia orders Euroclear to pay compensation to its central bank over seized assets
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%8%
Russia's court ruled in favor of the Central Bank in its lawsuit against Euroclear, which could impact EU sanctions and financial flows related to Ukraine, adding complexity to the geopolitical environment.
No draft legislation on elections under martial law in Ukrainian parliament
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%4%
On December 11, 2025, Oleksandr Korniienko, First Deputy Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, confirmed there were no draft bills or legislative initiatives regarding elections during martial law, reinforcing market doubts about elections happening in 2025.
Ukraine highlights practical challenges to wartime elections despite Zelenskyy's readiness
December 31, 2026 dips to 48%4%
Reports emphasized the immense logistical, security, and legal challenges to holding elections during ongoing war and martial law, including displaced voters and damaged infrastructure, which contributed to market declines in election probability.
Ukraine parliament forms working group to explore elections under martial law
June 30, 2026 rises to 26%2%
The Verkhovna Rada established a working group to study the feasibility and legal framework for holding presidential elections during martial law, responding to domestic and international pressure. This step indicated progress toward elections but also highlighted ongoing challenges, causing mixed market reactions.
Ukraine says elections possible under martial law if safe, but challenges remain
December 31, 2026 dips to 42%1%
Ukraine stated readiness to hold elections demanded by Trump if international partners ensure safety, but highlighted unresolved issues like voting rights for military personnel and displaced persons, and risks of Russian disruption, maintaining market doubts.
Zelenskyy tells parliament security guarantees are needed before any election
June 30, 2026 drops to 23%5%
RFE/RL reported Zelenskyy’s nightly address in which he said that without firm security guarantees from Washington Ukraine could not schedule elections. The wording reinforced market doubts, pushing the “Yes” price lower (down to the low‑20 % range).
Zelenskyy urges parliament to prepare legislation for elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 56%7%
Zelenskyy asked Ukrainian lawmakers to draft proposals to enable elections during martial law, signaling a willingness to amend legal frameworks to hold elections despite ongoing conflict, which influenced market perceptions.
Experts say elections unlikely before March 2026 despite preparations
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%9%
Analysts noted that even if preparations began immediately, elections could not realistically be held before March 2026 due to legislative and logistical hurdles, dampening market optimism for 2025 elections.
Experts and Officials Highlight Severe Practical Hurdles to Holding Wartime Elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%6%
Analysts and politicians pointed out that holding elections within 90 days is virtually impossible due to the need for legislative changes, voter registration updates for millions of refugees, and ongoing Russian infrastructure strikes.
Reports highlight practical challenges of holding wartime elections in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%5%
Media reports detailed the significant obstacles to holding elections during martial law, including security risks, displaced voters, and lack of legal framework, reinforcing skepticism about near-term elections despite Zelenskyy's statements.
Experts say Ukraine could not hold elections before March 2026 due to war and legal constraints
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%4%
Analysts and officials stated that even if Ukraine began preparations for elections, the earliest feasible date would be March 2026, given the time needed for legislative approval and candidate registration amid martial law. This dampened market optimism for 2025 elections.
Zelenskyy asks parliament to prepare legislation for elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 52%4%
Following his readiness statement, Zelenskyy requested his party to draft legislative proposals to enable elections under martial law, signaling a shift in approach but highlighting the legal challenges ahead. This tempered market optimism as practical hurdles remained.
CNN reports Zelenskyy could hold elections in next 60-90 days if security guaranteed
CNN coverage highlighted Zelenskyy's statement about readiness to hold elections soon if security conditions are met, but noted legal and logistical challenges due to martial law and displacement of voters, tempering market optimism.
Zelenskyy discusses election legal issues with Ukrainian parliament
December 31, 2026 drops to 50%6%
President Zelenskyy held discussions with parliament members about legal and other issues related to holding elections during martial law, signaling legislative efforts to enable elections despite constitutional challenges. This added some hope but also highlighted complexities, affecting market sentiment.
Ukraine and U.S. negotiate peace plan including elections after war
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%6%
President Zelenskyy announced a 20-point peace plan negotiated with the U.S. that includes holding elections after the war ends, implying elections would not occur in 2025. This reduced market confidence in elections by June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
Experts highlight logistical and security challenges to holding elections during war
December 31, 2026 drops to 47%7%
Analyses emphasized the difficulty of holding elections amid ongoing war, martial law, and infrastructure damage, including blackouts from Russian attacks, dampening market optimism about near-term elections.
Zelenskyy discusses legal hurdles to wartime elections with parliament
June 30, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Reuters reported Zelenskyy’s “substantive discussion” with parliament on legal hurdles to wartime voting, underscoring that no timetable existed. The market reacted with a steep decline in the June‑30 “Yes” probability.
Zelenskyy requests legislative changes to enable elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 52%2%
Following his readiness announcement, Zelenskyy asked lawmakers from his party to prepare legislative proposals to allow elections to be held under martial law. This was a necessary step to address the legal barriers to holding elections during wartime, signaling a formal move towards election preparations despite ongoing conflict.
Experts and officials highlight practical obstacles to wartime elections in Ukraine
June 30, 2026 dips to 17%2%
Multiple reports emphasized the difficulty of holding elections during ongoing conflict and martial law, including security risks, displaced voters, and infrastructure damage, tempering market optimism despite political statements.
Zelenskyy states Ukraine ready for elections if security ensured
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%4%
Zelenskyy publicly stated readiness for elections within 60 to 90 days if security and legislative conditions are met, responding to external pressure and raising market hopes temporarily.
Zelenskyy emphasizes practical challenges to wartime elections amid displaced population
June 30, 2026 plunges to 19%24%
Zelenskyy acknowledged logistical and legal challenges to holding elections during martial law, including millions of displaced voters and lack of regulatory framework, tempering market optimism about imminent elections.
Al Jazeera Reports Wartime Elections Unlikely Before March 2026
Al Jazeera reported that even if Kyiv begins preparations, a vote likely could not be held much earlier than March 2026 due to the lengthy legal process required to draft and pass election laws under martial law.
CNN: Zelensky pushes back on Trump, says Ukraine could vote within 90 days
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%16%
CNN reported Zelensky’s December‑9 remarks and added analysis that the president was pushing back against U.S. President Trump’s demand for an election. The story amplified the perception that an election could happen soon, further depressing the “June 30 2026” price to single‑digit levels by early January 2026.
Zelenskyy Discusses Legal Framework for Wartime Elections with Parliament
Zelenskyy held a substantive discussion with the Verkhovna Rada regarding the legal and logistical challenges of holding a vote under martial law, emphasizing that security remains the primary hurdle.
Zelenskyy says he discussed election law with parliament, calls for security guarantees
December 31, 2026 rises to 48%3%
Zelenskyy told a nightly video address that he had a substantive discussion with parliament on legal issues of holding an election, reinforcing his readiness but also emphasizing the need for external security guarantees. The market interpreted this as a modest boost to the likelihood of a 2025 election, lifting the “December 31 2026” price from 45 % to 48 % on 29 Dec 2025.
Zelenskyy urges US and Europe to guarantee security for elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 52%3%
Zelenskyy publicly requested help from the US and European allies to ensure security for elections, emphasizing that the decision is for Ukrainians and not foreign states. This statement maintained market interest but highlighted the dependency on external security guarantees.
Zelenskyy says elections could be held 60-90 days after ceasefire, not before March 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%15%
President Zelenskyy stated that elections could not realistically be held before March 2026 due to legal and security constraints, dampening market expectations for 2025 elections and pushing prices lower.
Zelensky pushes for election legislation despite wartime challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%3%
Zelensky asked his party to prepare legislation to enable elections during martial law, signaling political will but also highlighting ongoing legal and logistical hurdles, which tempered market enthusiasm.
Zelenskyy Discusses Legal Path to Wartime Elections with Ukrainian Parliament
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%5%
Zelenskyy held a substantive discussion with members of the Verkhovna Rada to explore legal frameworks and amendments that could allow for elections under martial law.
Ukraine considers legal path to elections under martial law amid U.S. pressure
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%2%
Zelenskyy held discussions with parliament members on the possibility of holding elections despite wartime legal restrictions, reflecting increased pressure from the U.S. to hold elections. This raised market hopes but also highlighted legal and practical challenges.
Zelensky asks party to prepare legislation for elections during wartime
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%6%
Following criticism from US President Trump, Zelensky requested his party to prepare legislative proposals to enable elections during martial law, indicating efforts to overcome legal barriers but no immediate election date.
Zelenskyy pushes back on claims of avoiding elections amid war
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%5%
Zelenskyy emphasized that elections would be held once security conditions and international standards are met, highlighting the challenges of holding elections during wartime and the need for legal changes. This tempered market enthusiasm as practical obstacles remained significant.
Analysis highlights practical difficulties of holding elections during wartime
December 31, 2026 drops to 47%7%
Reports emphasized that martial law prohibits elections, and logistical challenges such as displaced voters, ongoing conflict, and lack of legal framework make elections before war's end unlikely, tempering market optimism.
Experts highlight practical difficulties of holding elections during ongoing war
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Analyses emphasized the severe challenges of conducting elections amid war, including security risks, displaced voters, and infrastructure damage, dampening market expectations despite political statements about readiness.
Ukraine ready for elections if security ensured, Zelenskyy says amid ongoing war
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%7%
Zelenskyy reiterated readiness to hold elections within 60-90 days if international partners guarantee security, but acknowledged practical difficulties due to war conditions and legal prohibitions under martial law, keeping market skepticism high.
Analysis highlights practical obstacles to holding elections during wartime
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
On December 10, 2025, multiple reports emphasized the significant challenges of holding elections during ongoing conflict and martial law, including security risks, displaced voters, and damaged infrastructure. Public opinion polls showed most Ukrainians opposed elections before the war ends, dampening market expectations for elections in 2025 or early 2026.
Zelenskyy discusses election possibilities with Ukrainian parliament amid external pressure
December 31, 2026 dips to 48%2%
President Zelenskyy held discussions with parliament on legal and security issues related to holding elections during martial law, urging international partners not to pressure Ukraine. This indicated internal efforts to address election feasibility but also underscored ongoing challenges.
Trump urges Ukraine to hold elections, calls government a “dictator”
June 30, 2026 jumps to 36%14%
Trump’s interview in Politico accusing Kyiv of using the war to avoid elections increased pressure on Zelensky, contributing to a brief rally in the “June 30 2026” market (price rose from 22 % to 36 % on 2025‑11‑24). The timing aligns with the market’s sharp swing on 24 Nov 2025.
Experts say elections realistically not possible before March 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%8%
Analysts and election officials stated that even if preparations began immediately, elections could not realistically be held before March 2026 due to legal and logistical constraints amid ongoing conflict and martial law.
Experts highlight practical difficulties of holding elections amid war and occupation
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%11%
Analyses emphasized the impossibility of free and fair elections due to ongoing conflict, displacement, and Russian occupation, contributing to market price declines for elections by mid-2026.
Experts highlight practical challenges to holding elections amid war and martial law
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%5%
Analyses emphasized the difficulty of conducting elections during ongoing conflict, with millions displaced and martial law prohibiting elections, dampening market expectations for elections in 2025 or early 2026.
US President Trump accuses Zelenskyy of using war to avoid elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 47%5%
Donald Trump publicly accused Ukrainian President Zelenskyy of using the ongoing war as an excuse to delay elections, increasing international pressure and political debate about the timing of elections, which influenced market perceptions of election likelihood in 2025.
Zelenskyy discusses election legislation with Ukrainian parliament amid election readiness claims
December 31, 2026 dips to 41%1%
Zelenskyy reported substantive discussions with parliament on legal issues related to holding elections during martial law and urged international partners not to pressure Ukraine, signaling legislative efforts to enable elections despite ongoing conflict and martial law.
Analysis highlights practical challenges to holding elections during wartime
December 31, 2026 drops to 48%6%
Reports emphasized the difficulties of conducting elections amid ongoing conflict, displacement, and martial law, tempering market optimism despite Zelenskyy's statements.
Al Jazeera reports even if Kyiv begins preparations, vote likely cannot be held before March 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%29%
Al Jazeera reported that even if Kyiv begins preparations for a vote, it likely could not be held much earlier than March 2026, with the Verkhovna Rada taking weeks to draft and vote on a law allowing the election.
Zelensky discusses legal steps for possible wartime election with parliament
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%3%
In a nightly address Zelensky said he had discussed legal issues with parliament, reinforcing expectations that legislation could emerge soon and nudging the "December 31 2026" price upward (from ~41 % on Jan 3 to ~38 % on Jan 8).
Zelensky requests parliament to prepare election legislation under martial law
June 30, 2026 jumps to 30%6%
Following his readiness to hold elections, Zelensky asked his party members to draft legislative proposals to enable elections during martial law, addressing legal barriers to holding elections amid ongoing conflict. This development reinforced the possibility of elections in 2025, influencing market prices upward.
Experts say Ukraine cannot hold elections before March 2026 despite Zelensky's statements
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Analysts and election officials indicated that even if preparations started immediately, elections could not realistically be held before March 2026 due to legal and logistical constraints, dampening market optimism for mid-2026 elections.
Zelensky says Ukraine could hold elections in 60‑90 days if security secured
December 31, 2026 jumps to 56%9%
In a CNN interview Zelenskyy said Ukraine could be ready to hold elections within 60‑90 days if security were guaranteed, fueling optimism for a 2026 election and pushing the December‑31, 2026 price upward for a few days.
Zelensky requests legislative preparations for elections during wartime
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%3%
Zelensky asked his party to prepare legislation enabling elections during martial law, indicating a move toward legal frameworks for elections despite ongoing conflict, which influenced market perceptions of election feasibility.
Zelenskyy discusses legal hurdles to wartime election with parliament
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
In a nightly video address, Zelenskyy said he had a substantive discussion with parliament on legal steps needed for a wartime vote, reinforcing market concerns that any election would require new legislation.
Zelenskyy discusses legal steps for wartime election with parliament
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%8%
Zelenskyy told parliament he had held substantive talks about legal steps for an election and asked foreign partners not to pressure Kyiv. The clarity that legislation was being considered nudged market confidence toward a 2025 election, driving the “December 31 2026” price down further.
Zelenskyy pushes for election law changes amid ongoing war and security concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 48%7%
Zelenskyy requested Ukrainian lawmakers to prepare legislation to enable elections during martial law, signaling intent but highlighting legal and practical challenges, which tempered market optimism.
Zelenskyy Declares Readiness for Wartime Elections Within 90 Days Under Security Guarantees
June 30, 2026 jumps to 30%11%
Following sharp criticism from US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he was ready to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if Western allies could guarantee security and parliament drafted the necessary laws.
Zelenskyy asks parliament to prepare legislation for elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 49%5%
Zelensky requested his political party to prepare legislation enabling elections despite the war, contingent on security guarantees from the US and Europe, highlighting the legal and political steps needed before elections could be held.
Zelenskyy responds to Trump, ready to hold wartime elections within months
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%8%
Following Trump's accusations of clinging to power, Zelenskyy declared readiness to hold elections during wartime within three months if parliament and allies allow, signaling a shift in stance but acknowledging legal and security challenges.
Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Ready for Wartime Elections in Next 60-90 Days
President Zelenskyy stated Ukraine is ready to hold elections if allies can guarantee security, responding to criticism from Donald Trump. This brief optimism briefly boosted market prices before being tempered by legal realities.
Zelensky ready for wartime elections after Trump questions Ukrainian democracy
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%8%
Zelensky publicly committed to holding elections within months if parliament and allies support security, countering claims he was avoiding elections, which briefly boosted market optimism.
Zelenskyy says ready to hold wartime elections within 60-90 days if security guaranteed
President Zelenskyy stated readiness to hold elections during wartime within 60 to 90 days if the US and European allies ensure necessary security. This statement briefly raised market hopes for elections despite legal prohibitions under martial law.
President Zelenskyy ready to hold elections but requires legislative changes and security guarantees
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%5%
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to hold elections but emphasized the need for legislative amendments and security assurances, signaling that elections during martial law remain unlikely, which contributed to market uncertainty and price declines.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections within three months with U.S. security guarantees
December 31, 2026 rises to 47%3%
Zelenskyy told Reuters he was prepared to hold elections within three months if the United States and European allies provided security guarantees, a direct response to Trump’s pressure. The announcement lifted expectations briefly, causing a modest price rise before the market slid as legislation stalled.
Zelensky says Ukraine ready to hold elections in 60-90 days if security guaranteed
June 30, 2026 surges to 40%20%
President Zelensky publicly stated readiness to hold elections within 60-90 days contingent on security guarantees from allies, pushing back against claims he was avoiding elections. This statement briefly increased market confidence in elections by mid-2026.
Zelensky responds to Trump criticism, pledges to prepare wartime election legislation
June 30, 2026 jumps to 40%14%
Following criticism from former US President Trump, Zelensky announced he asked his party to prepare legislation to enable elections during martial law, signaling serious intent but also highlighting legal hurdles.
Zelenskyy says ready for elections within three months if security ensured
December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%5%
President Zelenskyy stated he was prepared to hold elections within three months if the U.S. and allies could ensure security, signaling a potential shift but acknowledging major obstacles. This statement caused a temporary market uptick in election probabilities but did not overcome legal and practical barriers.
Zelenskyy responds to Trump’s criticism, calls election delay reasonable due to war
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%5%
President Zelenskyy dismissed Donald Trump’s accusations of clinging to power as unreasonable, emphasizing the war and martial law as reasons elections cannot be held now. This statement tempered market optimism about imminent elections.
Zelenskyy asks party to prepare legislation for elections during war, contingent on security guarantees
December 31, 2026 rises to 50%3%
Zelenskyy requested his political party to draft legislation enabling elections during martial law, contingent on security guarantees from the US and Europe, indicating active steps toward enabling elections despite ongoing conflict.
Zelenskyy states readiness for wartime elections with allied security guarantees
December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%5%
President Zelenskyy announced he was ready to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if Ukraine's parliament and international allies could ensure security, responding to criticism from US President Trump. This statement briefly increased market optimism about elections in 2025 despite ongoing martial law.
Zelenskyy repeats election readiness but cites security concerns after Trump’s remarks
June 30, 2026 plunges to 8%15%
Following Trump’s Politico interview, Zelenskyy reiterated his readiness to hold elections within three months, but warned that Russia’s continued missile strikes made any near‑term vote infeasible. This reinforced market scepticism, contributing to a sharp decline in the “June 30 2026” price to a low of 8 % on 24 Jan 2026.
Trump urges Ukraine to hold elections; Zelenskyy says he can vote within 90 days with security guarantees
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
In a Politico interview, Trump said Ukraine must hold elections, prompting Zelenskyy to publicly declare he would be ready for a vote within 60‑90 days if security guarantees were provided. The sharp political pressure pushed market participants to view a 2025 election as less likely, driving the “June 30 2026” (No) price down from 51 % to 28 % by 30 Sep 2025.
Zelenskyy states readiness to hold elections within 60-90 days if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 dips to 48%3%
President Zelenskyy publicly declared he was ready to hold elections within 60 to 90 days provided that the United States and European allies could guarantee security for the vote, responding to pressure from US President Donald Trump and addressing concerns about wartime elections. This statement temporarily increased market optimism about elections occurring soon but faced legal and practical constraints.
Zelenskyy Declares Readiness to Hold Elections Within 90 Days Under Security Guarantees
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%5%
Responding to criticism from Donald Trump, President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine could hold elections within 60 to 90 days if the US and European allies provide robust security guarantees.
Zelensky asks Ukrainian parliament to prepare legislation for elections during wartime
Zelensky requested his party to prepare legislative proposals to enable elections despite ongoing war and martial law, indicating political movement towards elections but facing legal and practical hurdles.
U.S. President Trump pressures Ukraine to hold elections immediately
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%7%
Donald Trump publicly criticized Zelenskyy for delaying elections, accusing him of clinging to power and calling for immediate presidential elections. This increased international pressure on Ukraine and influenced Zelenskyy's subsequent statements about readiness to hold elections, impacting market sentiment.
Zelenskyy signals readiness for elections if security guaranteed within 60-90 days
December 31, 2026 rises to 54%3%
President Zelenskyy publicly stated he is ready to hold national elections within 60 to 90 days if the U.S. and European partners can guarantee security during wartime and if electoral laws are adapted. This was in response to pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump and marked a shift from previous positions that elections were impossible under martial law. The announcement temporarily increased market optimism about elections in 2025.
Zelenskyy calls on U.S. and Europe to ensure security for elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 56%1%
Zelenskyy requested help from the U.S. and European partners to guarantee security for elections during wartime, emphasizing the need for international support to hold credible elections. This reinforced the conditional nature of election prospects and influenced market prices.
Zelenskyy ready to hold wartime elections if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%3%
President Zelenskyy stated he was ready to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if the US and European allies ensured necessary security, responding to pressure from US President Donald Trump. This raised some market optimism but legal and practical challenges remained.
Zelenskyy rejects claims of clinging to power, calls for legal changes to hold elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%4%
Zelenskyy denied accusations of using the war to cling to power and said he would ask lawmakers to propose legal changes to allow elections during martial law, contingent on security guarantees from allies. This statement was a direct response to external criticism and influenced market perceptions of election feasibility.
President Zelenskyy signals readiness for elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%8%
In early December 2025, President Zelenskyy stated he was "always ready" for elections and discussed with parliament the possibility of holding presidential elections during martial law. This raised market speculation but lacked concrete legislative action, causing volatility in election probabilities.
Zelenskyy declares readiness to hold elections within 90 days if allies ensure security
June 30, 2026 jumps to 33%14%
Following criticism from US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine could hold elections within 60 to 90 days if the US and European allies guaranteed security, causing a temporary surge in market expectations.
Zelensky says Ukraine ready to hold elections in 60-90 days if allies guarantee security
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%8%
President Zelensky stated readiness to hold wartime elections within 60-90 days contingent on security guarantees from the US and European allies, temporarily boosting market optimism about elections by end-2026.
Zelenskyy says elections could be held in 60‑90 days with U.S./EU security guarantees
December 31, 2026 surges to 68%17%
Zelenskyy said he could hold elections within 60‑90 days if the U.S. and EU guaranteed security, raising hopes temporarily. The market’s “December 31 2026” price rose to a peak of 68 % on 2025‑11‑21 before falling again, indicating the brief optimism generated by the comment.
Zelensky says Ukraine could hold elections in 60‑90 days with security guarantees
December 31, 2026 rises to 49%2%
Zelensky announced he was ready to hold elections within 60‑90 days if security guarantees were provided, reviving hopes of an early vote and pushing the “December 31 2026” price up modestly (from ~47 % to ~49 %).
US President Trump urges Ukraine to hold elections immediately
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
US President Donald Trump publicly pressured Ukraine to hold elections, accusing Zelenskyy of using the war to delay democracy. This increased international pressure on Ukraine and influenced Zelenskyy's announcement about readiness for elections.
President Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready to hold elections in 60-90 days if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%7%
Zelenskyy publicly stated readiness to hold wartime elections soon if allies ensure security, temporarily boosting market expectations for elections by end-2026.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in 60‑90 days only with security guarantees
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
In a televised interview Zelenskyy said Ukraine would be ready to hold national elections within 60‑90 days if the United States and European partners could guarantee security. The comment was widely interpreted as an admission that elections could not be held under the current war conditions, driving the market’s “Yes” probability sharply lower (price fell from 51 % on Sep 24 to 28 % by Sep 30).
US President Trump pressures Ukraine to hold elections immediately
June 30, 2026 jumps to 24%5%
US President Donald Trump publicly called for Ukraine to hold presidential elections, accusing Zelensky of using the war as an excuse to cling to power. This increased international pressure on Ukraine and influenced Zelensky's subsequent statements about readiness for elections, impacting market prices.
Zelensky says Ukraine ready for elections if allies ensure security
June 30, 2026 surges to 35%17%
President Zelensky said Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if allies guarantee security. The optimism pushed the “June 30 2026” probability up to a peak of 35 % on 24 Nov 2025, reversing a prior slide.
Russian missile strikes plunge Ukrainian cities into blackouts
June 30, 2026 drops to 23%7%
A series of Russian missile and drone strikes caused widespread blackouts across Ukraine. Coverage of the attacks highlighted the logistical impossibility of holding a nation‑wide vote, further eroding confidence in a 2025 election and pulling the price down to the low‑20 % range.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready for elections if US and allies ensure security
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%7%
President Zelenskyy stated he was prepared to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if the US and European allies could guarantee security, responding to pressure from US President Donald Trump. This announcement temporarily increased market optimism about near-term elections.
Zelenskyy signals readiness for wartime elections if conditions met
December 31, 2026 plunges to 34%17%
President Zelenskyy stated he was ready to hold elections within 60-90 days if Ukraine's parliament and foreign allies allowed it, responding to criticism from Donald Trump. This raised market hopes for elections but was tempered by legal and security challenges.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready for elections in 60‑90 days if security guaranteed
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Zelenskyy told the nation that Ukraine could hold a vote within 60‑90 days only if foreign partners guaranteed security. The promise raised hopes that an election could happen in early 2026, pushing the June‑30, 2026 “Yes” probability up, then a rapid drop the next day as analysts noted legal obstacles under martial law.
Trump pressurises Ukraine to hold elections; Zelensky promises reforms
December 31, 2026 rises to 46%2%
Trump’s interview (Politico) accusing Zelensky of using the war to avoid elections intensified pressure on Kyiv. Zelensky’s subsequent pledge to seek legislative changes was viewed as a possible catalyst for an early vote, lifting the December‑31‑2026 price (from 44 % on Dec 22 2025 to 46 % on Dec 30 2025).
Zelensky urges parliament to draft law for wartime elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%5%
Zelensky said he would ask parliament to draft legislation allowing elections during martial law, responding to US‑Trump pressure. The prospect of a legal path raised optimism for a 2025‑2026 election, pushing the December‑31‑2026 price upward (from 46 % on Dec 30 2025 to 41 % on Jan 3 2026).
President Zelensky says Ukraine ready to hold elections in 60-90 days if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%8%
Zelensky announced readiness to hold elections soon if allies provide security guarantees, responding to criticism and raising market hopes despite legal and practical challenges.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready to hold elections in 60-90 days if security guaranteed
June 30, 2026 jumps to 25%6%
President Zelenskyy stated readiness to hold elections within 60 to 90 days contingent on security guarantees from allies, responding to U.S. President Donald Trump's criticism that Ukraine was avoiding elections. This statement temporarily increased market optimism about elections occurring soon.
Zelenskyy ready to hold elections within 60-90 days if allies guarantee security
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%6%
President Zelenskyy publicly stated readiness to hold elections soon if security can be ensured by international partners, responding to criticism and raising hopes for elections, which caused a temporary market increase.
Zelenskyy ready for wartime elections after Trump questions Ukrainian democracy
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%10%
Following criticism from Donald Trump, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to hold elections within months if parliament and allies allow, signaling political willingness but highlighting dependency on security conditions, influencing market optimism temporarily.
Zelenskyy Declares Readiness for Elections Within 90 Days if Allies Ensure Security
June 30, 2026 jumps to 32%8%
In response to sharp criticism from Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he was ready to hold wartime elections within 60 to 90 days if Western allies could guarantee the security of the vote.
Zelenskyy Declares Readiness for Elections Within 90 Days Under Security Guarantees
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
In response to criticism from US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he is ready to hold wartime elections within 60 to 90 days if international allies can guarantee security.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready to hold elections if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%5%
President Zelenskyy stated readiness to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if the US and European allies ensure necessary security, responding to pressure from US President Donald Trump. This raised short-term market optimism but did not change the legal prohibition under martial law.
Zelensky says Ukraine ready for elections in 60-90 days if allies guarantee security
December 31, 2026 rises to 54%3%
President Zelensky publicly stated Ukraine could hold elections within 60 to 90 days if Western partners ensure security, responding to US President Trump's calls for elections despite martial law. This raised market hopes but also highlighted security and legal challenges.
Zelenskyy meets EU leaders, seeks security guarantees for elections
December 31, 2026 jumps to 56%8%
Zelenskyy’s appearance with European leaders in London was reported as a diplomatic push for election support, briefly lifting the December‑31 “Yes” price to 56 % on Dec 14 before it fell again as no concrete timeline emerged.
Zelenskyy urges EU allies for security guarantees ahead of possible elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 48%3%
During a meeting in London with EU leaders Zelenskyy reiterated his request for security guarantees, reinforcing the narrative of imminent elections. This helped steady the December‑2026 price, which held around 48 % through mid‑December.
U.S. and Russia resume stalled peace talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%13%
The resumption of U.S.-brokered negotiations without any breakthrough on a cease‑fire reinforced expectations that the conflict would continue, further depressing the likelihood of elections in 2025.
U.S. revives Ukraine‑Russia peace push amid Zelenskyy corruption scandal
A high‑level U.S. military delegation arrived in Kyiv while a $100 million corruption scandal forced the dismissal of two Ukrainian ministers, deepening political turmoil and lowering market confidence that elections could be scheduled on time.
Trump urges Ukraine to hold elections, calling the war an excuse
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%5%
Trump’s public call for an Ukrainian election, echoed in media, sparked a brief rally in the December‑31 “Yes” price (up to 53 % on Dec 8) as traders speculated pressure could force an early vote, before the market re‑settled lower.
Ukraine suffers heavy Russian drone and missile attacks amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%6%
Russia launched a massive drone and missile strike on Ukraine’s energy targets during ongoing peace negotiations, highlighting the ongoing conflict and instability that diminish prospects for elections in 2025. This event contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Corruption scandal weakens Zelenskyy’s government amid ongoing war
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%14%
A $100 million corruption scandal involving top officials in Ukraine’s government led to protests and political instability, undermining confidence in the government’s ability to hold elections and contributing to market price declines.
President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in next 60-90 days if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 rises to 50%3%
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to hold elections soon if security conditions allow, countering claims that he was clinging to power. This raised market hopes for elections in early 2026, causing some price volatility.
President Zelenskyy signals readiness for elections if security conditions met
December 31, 2026 rises to 50%3%
In early December 2025, President Zelenskyy stated Ukraine could hold elections within 60-90 days if security and legal conditions were guaranteed, raising some market optimism but constrained by ongoing martial law and infrastructure challenges.
Zelenskyy meets with US leaders to discuss election preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%2%
Zelenskyy met with US officials to discuss potential wartime elections, seeking international support for security measures. This diplomatic engagement signaled serious consideration of early elections.
President Zelensky meets European leaders amid election readiness talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%1%
Zelensky's meetings with European leaders underscored efforts to secure support and security guarantees necessary for holding elections, impacting market optimism about elections in 2025.
President Zelensky says Ukraine could hold elections in next 60-90 days if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 rises to 50%3%
President Zelensky stated readiness to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if security conditions are met, countering claims that he is using the war to cling to power. This statement briefly increased market optimism about elections occurring sooner.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in next 60-90 days if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%3%
President Zelenskyy stated Ukraine might be ready to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if security conditions improve, countering claims that he was delaying elections to cling to power. However, the ongoing war and infrastructure damage made this uncertain, causing some market volatility.
Zelensky says Ukraine could hold elections in 60‑90 days if security ensured
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%8%
In Dublin, Zelensky told reporters Ukraine could be ready to hold elections in the next 60‑90 days if security were guaranteed. Media coverage sparked a short rally in the market for the December‑31, 2026 outcome.
President Zelenskyy states elections could be held within 60-90 days if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 jumps to 47%13%
In early December 2025, Zelenskyy indicated readiness to hold elections within 60-90 days if security and legal conditions are met, signaling potential legislative efforts to enable elections during martial law. This caused some market optimism but practical challenges remained.
Zelensky says Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security allows
June 30, 2026 drops to 16%11%
Zelensky told CNN that Ukraine could be ready to hold elections within 60‑90 days if security were guaranteed, reinforcing expectations of a 2026 vote and pushing the June‑30 outcome down to 16 % on 7 Jan 2026.
CEC says only three‑quarters of polling stations functional amid war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%18%
The CEC head warned that only 75 % of polling stations were operational, highlighting logistical hurdles. The practical constraints lowered confidence in a near‑term election, contributing to the slide of the “June 30 2026” price from 27 % to 9 % by early January.
Ukraine faces ongoing war and political pressure delaying elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
Continued Russian attacks and internal political crises, including corruption scandals and leadership challenges, sustained uncertainty about election timing. This prolonged the market's downward trend on election likelihood within 2025.
US and Ukrainian Delegations Discuss Election Schedule and Territorial Issues in Florida
June 30, 2026 surges to 39%22%
Reports emerged that Ukrainian and American delegations discussed the schedule of elections in Ukraine and potential territorial exchanges during talks in Florida, raising expectations of a diplomatic path toward elections.
Kyiv and Washington discuss Ukraine election schedule amid peace talks
Discussions between Ukrainian and U.S. delegations included the schedule of elections in Ukraine and territorial issues, signaling international attention on the timing of elections amid ongoing conflict and peace negotiations. This increased uncertainty about elections in 2025, impacting market prices.
U.S.–Ukraine talks include discussion of Ukraine’s election schedule
June 30, 2026 drops to 30%9%
U.S.–Ukraine talks mentioned election scheduling as a negotiation point, highlighted by the Wall‑Street‑Journal. The diplomatic focus raised hopes of a near‑term vote, briefly lowering the “June 30 2026” probability in late November.
Kiev, Washington talk election schedule with no firm date
June 30, 2026 rises to 25%2%
A WSJ‑cited delegation from Kiev and Washington discussed election scheduling, but no concrete date was set, keeping market confidence low and pulling the “June 30 2026” probability back toward 25 % on 30 Nov 2025.
US and Ukraine Discuss Election Schedule in Florida Negotiations
June 30, 2026 jumps to 31%13%
The Wall Street Journal reported that delegations from Kyiv and Washington discussed the schedule of elections in Ukraine and potential territorial exchanges during talks in Florida.
U.S. and Ukraine discuss election schedule amid ongoing war
June 30, 2026 rises to 22%3%
Talks between Ukrainian and U.S. delegations included discussions on the schedule of elections in Ukraine and territorial issues, signaling international attention on the timing of elections despite ongoing conflict. This raised market uncertainty about the feasibility of elections in 2025.
U.S. and Ukraine discuss election timeline in diplomatic talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 54%3%
A WSJ report noted that U.S. and Ukrainian delegations discussed the election schedule during diplomatic talks. The vague diplomatic dialogue briefly raised hopes for a 2025 election, causing a temporary rise in the “December 31 2026” price to 54 % on 17 Nov 2025.
US-Ukraine talks discuss election schedule and territorial issues
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
The Wall Street Journal reported that the schedule of elections in Ukraine was a topic in talks between US and Ukrainian delegations, indicating ongoing diplomatic discussions about the timing and conditions for elections amid the war.
Kyiv and Washington Discuss Election Schedule and Territorial Issues in Florida Talks
June 30, 2026 surges to 37%19%
Reports emerged that the schedule of elections in Ukraine was a key topic of discussion during negotiations between Ukrainian and American delegations in Florida, signaling growing US pressure.
Kiev and Washington discuss Ukrainian election schedule amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 36%18%
Discussions between Ukrainian and US delegations included the schedule of elections and territorial issues, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts that influenced market perceptions about the timing and feasibility of elections.
Kiev and Washington discuss Ukraine election schedule amid ongoing war
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%7%
Discussions between Ukrainian and U.S. officials about the schedule of elections and territorial issues indicated ongoing uncertainty about election timing, contributing to market volatility and skepticism about elections in 2025.
Ukraine's parliament reaffirms no elections during martial law, pledges post-war presidential vote
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
On February 26, 2025, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections after the war ends. This reinforced the constitutional ban on elections during martial law, impacting market expectations negatively for 2025 elections.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 50%6%
On February 26, 2025, the Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the war ends. This official stance strongly influenced market sentiment, reducing the likelihood of elections in 2025 or early 2026.
Ukraine's parliament reaffirms no elections during martial law, pledges post-war presidential vote
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
The Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the war ends, reducing market confidence in elections by mid-2026.
SOCIS poll shows tight first round, decisive runoff win for Zaluzhnyi
June 30, 2026 surges to 39%22%
A poll released by the SOCIS institute showed a tight first‑round race, fuelling speculation that an election could be called earlier. The June‑30‑2026 price spiked from 17 % on 2025‑11‑18 to 39 % on 2025‑11‑25, the biggest single‑day swing in the period.
Zelenskyy says presidential election could be in March 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 24%20%
Zelenskyy stated that if Kyiv begins preparations, an election could be held in March 2026, though he acknowledged the timeline was 'fantasy' if security cannot be guaranteed. This provided a more realistic but still distant timeline.
Central Election Commission studies possible election timelines under martial law
June 30, 2026 surges to 38%17%
A brief report that the CEC was reviewing possible timelines for an election under martial law led to a temporary bounce in the June‑30 price (from 21 % to 38 % on 23 Nov). The impact was short‑lived as later clarifications reinforced the “no election in 2025” view.
Central Election Commission says electoral law blocks elections under martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 23%16%
The CEC issued a statement that no legal framework exists for conducting a election under martial law, reinforcing the view that any 2025 vote was unlikely. The market responded with a modest dip in both outcomes, contributing to the overall downward trend for “June 30 2026”.
Parliament votes to delay elections until after the war
June 30, 2026 surges to 41%22%
A parliamentary session voted to postpone any election until after the war, prompting a brief rise in the “June 30 2026” price (from 19 % to 41 % on Nov 23) as traders speculated a snap vote might be forced by international pressure, before the price fell again as the resolution was clarified.
Ukrainian parliament delays local elections until end of martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%6%
On November 23, 2025, the Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution to delay local elections until martial law ends, reinforcing the constitutional ban on elections during wartime and signaling no national elections would be held in 2025.
Parliament extends martial law, confirming no elections in 2025
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%13%
Parliament held a vote confirming the continuation of martial law through 2025, which reinforced market belief that elections were unlikely, causing a notable dip in the "June 30 2026" price (from ~39 % on Nov 25 to ~26 % on Dec 2).
Temporary market rebound on hopes for elections after Zelenskyy signals readiness
June 30, 2026 surges to 39%21%
Market prices for June 30, 2026, outcome surged from 18% to 39% on November 23, 2025, after Zelenskyy indicated possible elections if security conditions improve, raising hopes for elections within 2025 or early 2026.
All parliamentary parties agree to postpone elections until after martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 8%31%
All parties in the Verkhovna Rada signed a document to postpone any national election until after martial law ends, reinforcing the belief that no 2025 vote will happen and driving the June‑30, 2026 price to its lowest point.
Zelensky re‑states elections impossible under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%7%
Zelenskyy reiterated that elections could not be held until martial law is lifted, reaffirming the legal barrier and reinforcing the market’s downward trend in “Yes” pricing.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms ban on elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 52%4%
Parliament debated a resolution reaffirming that elections cannot be held under martial law, reminding markets that any schedule beyond 2025 would resolve the market to ‘No’. The price for December‑2026 dipped from 56 % to 52 % that day, reflecting renewed doubt.
Parliament extends martial‑law decree, no election date set
December 31, 2026 jumps to 68%14%
A minor parliamentary debate on extending martial‑law decrees without an election timeline caused a brief rise in the December‑31 “Yes” price to 68 % (the period’s high), reflecting market optimism that an election might be scheduled before year‑end.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy agrees in principle to U.S. peace plan requiring elections after war
December 31, 2026 drops to 54%14%
Zelenskyy agreed in principle to a U.S.-proposed peace plan that includes holding elections after the war ends and security guarantees are in place, indicating elections would not occur during 2025 but rather post-conflict, reducing market confidence in 2025 elections.
Zelensky calls Trump’s call for immediate Ukrainian elections ‘unreasonable’
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%12%
Zelensky publicly rejected US‑President Trump’s demand for an immediate election, calling it “unreasonable”. The dismissal dampened optimism for a 2025 vote, causing the December‑2026 outcome price to fall from a peak of 56 % on 21 Nov to 44 % by 22 Nov.
Trump administration presents 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan including elections after war
December 31, 2026 drops to 54%14%
The Trump administration presented a detailed peace plan to Ukraine, which included security guarantees and a provision for Ukraine to hold elections 100 days after the agreement. This raised hopes for elections but also uncertainty about timing, impacting market prices for elections in 2025.
U.S.-led peace talks in Abu Dhabi involving Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. officials
December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%11%
Trilateral talks aimed at ending the war included discussions on ceasefire and security guarantees, but no agreement on elections timing was reached, contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility for December 31, 2026 outcome.
All Ukrainian parties agree to postpone elections until after martial law
June 30, 2026 surges to 37%15%
All parties signed a document agreeing to postpone any national election until after martial law ends and to work on a post‑war election law. This reinforced the expectation that no 2025 election would occur, sharpening the decline of the June‑30, 2026 price.
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy faces mounting pressure amid corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 drops to 47%7%
President Zelenskyy struggled to contain fallout from a $100 million corruption scandal implicating top officials, weakening political stability and reducing confidence in holding elections in 2025. This contributed to further price declines for election outcomes in 2025.
Zelenskyy says elections will only be held after war ends
June 30, 2026 drops to 18%12%
In a televised address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated that national elections cannot be scheduled while martial law remains in effect, pushing the prospect of a 2025 vote further into uncertainty and causing a sharp drop in market confidence.
OSCE seminar discusses Ukraine's post-war election readiness
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%7%
OSCE PA held a seminar in Istanbul focusing on Ukraine's efforts to prepare for post-martial law elections, emphasizing the need for innovative solutions and international support. This highlighted the international community's role in Ukraine's electoral future.
Zelenskyy open to peace plan with demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine
June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%19%
Zelenskyy expressed openness to creating a demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine as part of a peace plan, which could influence the timing and conditions for future elections.
Zelenskyy says ready for wartime elections within three months
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%11%
President Zelenskyy stated he is prepared to hold elections during martial law if parliament and allies allow it, responding to Trump's claims about clinging to power. This raised hopes for early elections but was quickly tempered by constitutional and security concerns.
OSCE seminar highlights Ukraine's preparation for post-martial law elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
At an OSCE Parliamentary Assembly seminar in Istanbul, Ukraine's efforts to prepare for elections after martial law ends were discussed, emphasizing the need for international support and innovative solutions for post-conflict elections. This indicated that elections were planned only after martial law, reducing near-term election expectations.
Political parties agree to postpone elections until after martial law ends
June 30, 2026 drops to 25%6%
In November 2023, all political parties in the Verkhovna Rada signed a memorandum agreeing to postpone elections until after martial law ends, reflecting broad political consensus against wartime elections. This agreement influenced market expectations for delayed elections.
Central Election Commission warns of lengthy voter‑register update process
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%24%
The CEC reported that updates to the voter register would take several weeks, highlighting logistical hurdles for any imminent election. The practical difficulty contributed to a rapid price drop that day.
Russian attacks intensify on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amid winter
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%24%
Russia escalated attacks on Ukraine’s power grid causing severe electricity shortages and hardship during winter, undermining stability and complicating conditions for holding elections in 2025. The worsening humanitarian situation likely contributed to market price declines for elections in 2025.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
On February 26, 2025, the Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law, directly opposing calls for elections amid ongoing conflict. This reinforced legal barriers and reduced market confidence in elections occurring in 2025.
Martial law extended in Ukraine until February 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 17th time until February 3, 2026, legally prohibiting presidential and parliamentary elections during this period, which caused market prices for elections in 2025 to drop.
Ukraine’s president under pressure amid corruption scandal and peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
President Zelenskyy faced a $100 million corruption scandal weakening his government, coinciding with renewed U.S.-led peace efforts proposing elections after the war. The political turmoil contributed to market uncertainty about elections in 2025.
Ukraine President Zelenskyy discusses peace plan including elections after war
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
Zelenskyy outlined a 20-point peace plan with the U.S. that includes holding elections after the war ends, indicating elections would not occur during 2025. This reinforced market expectations that elections would be delayed beyond the market's resolution window, lowering prices for both outcomes.
All Ukrainian parliamentary parties agree to postpone elections until after martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
In November 2025, all political parties in the Verkhovna Rada signed a memorandum agreeing to postpone national elections until after martial law ends, reinforcing the market's declining confidence in 2025 elections.
Ex-Ukrainian PM predicts presidential elections in 2026
Former Prime Minister Nikolay Azarov stated on November 10, 2025, that Ukraine will hold presidential elections in 2026, indicating no national elections would occur in 2025 and aligning with the market's declining probability for 2025 elections.
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law until February 3, 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%8%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for 90 days, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and reinforcing the postponement of elections until after martial law ends.
Verkhovna Rada continues legislative activity amid martial law, no election scheduling
The Ukrainian parliament held plenary sessions passing laws unrelated to elections, with no indication of scheduling national elections during martial law, maintaining the status quo and reinforcing market expectations of no elections in 2025.
Zelenskyy says U.S. security‑guarantees document is “100% ready” but awaiting signing date
President Zelenskyy announced that a U.S. security‑guarantees agreement for Ukraine was fully prepared after talks in Abu Dhabi, but no signing date had been set, heightening uncertainty about when the deal – a prerequisite for stable election planning – would be finalized.
Ukrainian authorities begin preparations for 2026 presidential elections assuming peace
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Reports indicated that Ukrainian authorities were preparing for presidential elections in 2026 contingent on a peaceful resolution of the conflict, signaling that elections in 2025 were unlikely and pushing market expectations further into 2026.
Politico reports Ukrainian authorities are preparing for 2026 elections if peace is achieved
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%3%
New reports detailed that Ukrainian authorities are specifically eyeing 2026 for presidential elections in the event that peace is established, further pushing expectations past the mid-2026 mark.
Politico Reports Ukrainian Authorities Preparing for Presidential Elections in 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%4%
Reports emerged that Ukrainian officials have begun quiet preparations for presidential elections in 2026, assuming a peaceful resolution to the conflict might occur by then, further pushing expectations past mid-2026.
Zelensky signs laws extending martial law and general mobilization until February 3, 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%3%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed two laws extending martial law and general mobilization for 90 days, legally blocking any national elections from being held until at least February 3, 2026.
Martial law and constitutional bans prevent elections during wartime in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 plunges to 33%18%
Ukraine remains under martial law due to the ongoing war with Russia, and the Ukrainian constitution prohibits holding presidential or parliamentary elections during martial law. This legal barrier strongly reduces the likelihood of elections being held in 2025.
Verkhovna Rada confirms impossibility of holding elections on October 26 due to martial law
On October 23, 2025, statements from officials and the Verkhovna Rada confirmed that elections scheduled for October 26, including local elections, would not be held due to martial law and ongoing war conditions, further cementing the market's low probability assessment for 2025 elections.
Official confirms no local elections on October 26, 2025, blaming war conditions
June 30, 2026 dips to 22%1%
On October 23, 2025, statements from officials including Maria Zakharova and Ukrainian deputies confirmed that local elections scheduled for October 26, 2025, would not be held due to the ongoing war and martial law. This solidified market expectations that elections would not occur in 2025.
Reports confirm no elections held on October 26 as scheduled
June 30, 2026 rises to 23%4%
Multiple reports confirmed that local elections planned for October 26 did not take place, with parliament citing martial law and war conditions as reasons. This confirmed the market's expectation that no national elections would be held in 2025, solidifying the low price level.
Russian official highlights canceled Ukrainian elections on October 26
Maria Zakharova noted that local elections scheduled for October 26, 2025, did not take place, attributing the cancellation to the ongoing war and martial law, reinforcing the official stance that elections are postponed until peace is restored.
Russian official highlights Ukraine’s postponed local elections scheduled for October 26
June 30, 2026 dips to 22%1%
On October 23, 2025, Russian spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that local elections were supposed to be held on October 26 but were postponed. This public acknowledgment by a key actor confirmed the official Ukrainian position that elections would not occur in 2025, sustaining market skepticism.
Russian officials highlight Ukraine’s failure to hold scheduled local elections on October 26
June 30, 2026 rises to 23%4%
Russian spokesperson Maria Zakharova noted that Ukraine was supposed to hold local elections on October 26, 2025, but these did not occur, attributing the failure to ongoing conflict and blaming Ukraine’s government. This underscored the market's low confidence in elections happening in 2025.
Russian official notes elections were supposed to be held on October 26 but did not occur
June 30, 2026 rises to 23%4%
On October 23, Russian spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that local elections scheduled for October 26 in Ukraine did not take place, citing the Ukrainian parliament's resolution and ongoing martial law. This public acknowledgment reinforced market expectations that no elections would be held in 2025.
Ukrainian Parliament Declares Elections Impossible During War
The Verkhovna Rada reiterated its decision to cancel local elections, attributing the impossibility to Russia's military aggression, with the current officials' powers extended until martial law is lifted.
Confirmation that local elections scheduled for October 26 will not be held
Statements from officials and media confirmed that local elections planned for October 26, 2025, would not take place due to ongoing martial law and war conditions, further cementing the market's low probability for elections in 2025.
Local elections scheduled for October 26 do not take place amid ongoing war and martial law
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%5%
Local elections planned for October 26 were officially not held due to martial law and the war, with parliament blaming Russia for the impossibility of organizing elections. This confirmed the continuation of election delays and contributed to market price declines.
Ukraine local elections postponed as martial law continues
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Parliament adopted a resolution declaring the impossibility of running local elections during Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine and martial law, confirming no elections in October 2025.
Ukrainian parliament extends martial law to Feb 3 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
The Verkhovna Rada voted to extend martial law and general mobilisation for another 90 days (until 3 Feb 2026). Since elections are prohibited under martial law, the extension pushed the likelihood of any 2025‑2026 election further away, driving the June‑30‑2026 price down sharply (‑30 pts from 51 % to 21 %).
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law until February 3, 2026
On October 21, 2025, the Ukrainian parliament voted to extend martial law and general mobilization for 90 days until February 3, 2026. This extension legally prohibits holding national elections during this period, reinforcing the postponement of elections.
Ukraine’s martial law indefinitely postpones presidential and parliamentary elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
Martial law triggered by Russia’s invasion has indefinitely postponed Ukraine’s national elections, originally scheduled for spring 2024, making elections within 2025 unlikely. This official postponement directly impacts the market’s resolution criteria, reducing the probability of elections being held in 2025.
Trump says Ukraine should hold elections now, accuses Zelensky of clinging to power
June 30, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Trump’s interview with Politico accusing Kyiv of using the war to avoid elections sparked a sharp sell‑off, pushing the “June 30 2026” probability down to 20 % on 21 Oct 2025.
Trump urges Ukraine to hold elections, saying it’s using war as an excuse
June 30, 2026 dips to 24%4%
During a White House visit, President Trump publicly urged Ukraine to hold elections, pressuring Kyiv. The criticism sparked debate and initially lifted speculation that elections could be postponed, helping the “June 30 2026” price rise in late October.
Ukrainian parliament extends martial law until August 2025
Early in the analysis window the parliament extended martial law to August 2025, reinforcing that no elections could be scheduled for 2025. This extension coincided with the market’s low point for “June 30 2026” (20 % at the start of the window).
Ukraine’s president faces multiple crises amid war and corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%9%
President Zelenskyy faced growing pressure from a $100 million corruption scandal and political challenges, complicating governance during ongoing war and reducing likelihood of elections in 2025.
Parliament extends martial law through early 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%4%
Parliament extended martial law for a further 90‑day period (until early 2026). The extension reiterated the legal barrier to any election in 2025, keeping the June‑30, 2026 price near its low point.
No official scheduling of Ukraine’s 2025 elections amid ongoing war and political instability
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%7%
As of mid-October 2025, no official announcement was made by the Ukrainian government scheduling national elections within the 2025 timeframe. The ongoing war and martial law conditions made it unlikely elections would be held before the end of 2025, reinforcing market expectations of a 'No' resolution.
Ukraine’s president under pressure amid war and corruption scandals, elections unlikely in 2025
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%7%
President Zelenskyy faces multiple crises including corruption scandals and war fatigue, weakening political stability and reducing the likelihood of elections being held in 2025. The political environment and ongoing martial law make election scheduling within 2025 improbable, reflected in the market’s low probability.
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid ongoing war and peace efforts
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%6%
Zelenskyy appointed the head of military intelligence as his new chief of staff to focus on security and peace talks, signaling continued prioritization of war efforts over immediate election preparations, reinforcing market doubts about 2025 elections.
U.S.-brokered peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. held in Abu Dhabi
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%6%
Diplomatic efforts to end the war continued with talks in Abu Dhabi, but no agreement on ceasefire or elections was reached, maintaining uncertainty about Ukraine’s ability to hold elections in 2025. This contributed to further decline in market confidence.
Zelenskyy discusses peace plan draft requiring elections only after war settlement
June 30, 2026 rises to 25%3%
News emerged that a draft peace plan being negotiated with the U.S. would only require Ukraine to hold elections after the signing of a formal agreement, further pushing potential election dates beyond 2025.
Ukraine’s presidential and parliamentary elections postponed indefinitely under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%10%
Due to Russia's full-scale invasion and the imposition of martial law, Ukraine indefinitely postponed its national elections originally scheduled for 2025, making the holding of elections within the specified timeframe unlikely and impacting market prices negatively.
Ukraine agrees in principle to hold elections after war ends as part of peace talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%6%
In peace negotiations, Ukraine agreed to hold elections only after the war ends and security guarantees are in place, signaling no elections would occur during 2025. This official stance contributed to the market’s decline in election probability for 2025.
Ukraine’s political crisis deepens amid corruption scandal and war fatigue
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%6%
President Zelenskyy faced mounting pressure from a $100 million corruption scandal implicating top officials, eroding public trust and political stability. This turmoil further reduced confidence in the government’s ability to hold elections in 2025, contributing to a continued decline in market prices.
Ukraine peace talks continue amid ongoing conflict and political uncertainty
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%2%
Despite ongoing U.S.-brokered peace talks and diplomatic efforts to end the war, no agreement or official election scheduling was reached, maintaining uncertainty about the timing of Ukraine’s national elections. The continued conflict and lack of election scheduling contributed to sustained low market confidence in elections occurring in 2025.
Verkhovna Rada adopts resolution declaring local elections impossible during martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%4%
Ukraine's parliament passed a resolution stating local elections cannot be held during the ongoing war and martial law, effectively postponing elections and reinforcing market expectations that no national elections would occur in 2025.
Ukrainian Parliament Votes to Delay All Local Elections Scheduled for October 2025
June 30, 2026 rises to 25%2%
The Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution officially recognizing the impossibility of holding elections during wartime, formally delaying the local elections scheduled for October 2025.
Parliament Declares Local Elections Impossible During Russia's War
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
The Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution citing Russia's military aggression as the reason for canceling local elections, extending the powers of current officials until martial law is lifted.
Ukraine cancels local elections amid war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 19%32%
Parliament passed a resolution declaring local elections impossible during martial law due to Russia's war, officially canceling October 2025 local elections and extending powers of regional officials.
Verkhovna Rada Rejects October Local Elections Amid Martial Law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
The Ukrainian parliament formally recognized that holding local elections on the last Sunday of October 2025 was impossible due to military aggression and martial law, extending current officials' powers.
Parliament Recognizes Holding Local Elections is Impossible During War
June 30, 2026 plunges to 19%32%
The Verkhovna Rada formally recognized that local elections scheduled for October 2025 could not be held due to military aggression, citing democratic standards and voter safety concerns.
Ukrainian Parliament formally cancels October 2025 local elections
June 30, 2026 drops to 18%5%
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution confirming the impossibility of holding democratic elections under martial law, extending the terms of current local officials and reinforcing expectations that national elections will also be delayed.
Ukrainian Parliament Passes Resolution Declaring Impossibility of Local Elections During War
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution stating that local elections scheduled for October 2025 cannot be held due to martial law and Russian military aggression, extending the powers of current officials until martial law is lifted.
Ukrainian Parliament adopts resolution declaring impossibility of running local elections during war
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%4%
The Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution officially recognizing that it is impossible to hold democratic local elections under martial law, extending the powers of current local officials.
Verkhovna Rada Recognizes October Local Elections Impossible During War
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
The Ukrainian parliament formally recognized that local elections scheduled for October 2025 could not be held due to military aggression, with current officials continuing their duties.
Ukraine Parliament Votes to Cancel October Local Elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 19%32%
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution declaring local elections impossible during wartime, extending powers of current officials until martial law is lifted. This confirmed no national elections would be held in Ukraine in 2025.
Verkhovna Rada passes resolution to delay local elections until end of martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 24%3%
On October 8, 2025, Ukraine’s parliament passed Resolution No. 14301, legally enshrining the postponement of local elections until martial law ends. This reinforced the earlier decision and further diminished the likelihood of elections in 2025.
Ukrainian parliament officially cancels local elections in October 2025
The Verkhovna Rada adopted Resolution No. 14301 declaring the impossibility of holding local elections during martial law, extending current officials' terms until conditions for safe voting are restored. This confirmed no elections would be held in 2025, impacting market expectations.
Ukraine parliament passes resolution to delay local elections until end of martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
On October 8, 2025, the Verkhovna Rada passed Resolution No. 14301, legally enshrining the continuation of current local councils and postponing local elections until martial law ends. This reinforced the market's low confidence in elections occurring in 2025.
Ukrainian Parliament votes to cancel October local elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution declaring local elections impossible during wartime, extending powers of current officials until martial law ends.
Ukrainian Parliament officially postpones local elections, citing martial law and war
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution declaring it impossible to hold local elections during martial law and ongoing war, extending current officials' powers until martial law is lifted. This effectively cancels elections in 2025 and lowered market expectations significantly.
Ukrainian Parliament Cancels October Local Elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
The Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution declaring local elections impossible during martial law, citing safety concerns and the ongoing war with Russia. This decision significantly reduced the likelihood of any 2025 elections.
Ukrainian Parliament adopts resolution postponing local elections during martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 24%4%
The Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution declaring the impossibility of holding local elections during martial law and the war, extending current officials' terms until conditions for safe voting are restored. This official postponement reinforced market doubts about elections in 2025.
Parliament extends martial law and delays local elections until war ends
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%
The Rada extended martial law and postponed local elections until the end of the war, confirming that no national vote would be scheduled for 2025. The market interpreted this as a definitive “No” for a 2025 election, driving the June‑30 price down to a low of 8 % by late January 2026.
Ukraine parliament passes resolution postponing local elections
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%3%
Verkhovna Rada passed Resolution No. 14301 extending martial law and general mobilization until November 5, 2025, and declaring impossibility of holding local elections during the war.
Parliament Declares Impossibility of Local Elections During Russia's War
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution stating that local elections cannot be held during Russia's full-scale war and martial law, citing safety concerns and the need for democratic standards.
Ukraine Parliament Cancels October Local Elections Amid War
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution declaring local elections impossible during the ongoing war with Russia, extending the powers of current officials until martial law is lifted. This decision directly impacted the market's confidence in 2025 electoral activity.
Ukrainian Parliament Passes Resolution Canceling October Local Elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution declaring local elections impossible during wartime, citing safety and democratic standards, with 308 deputies voting in favor. This decision directly affected the market's price movement.
Verkhovna Rada officially postpones local elections until end of martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
The Ukrainian parliament passed Resolution No. 14301, legally enshrining the continuation of current local councils and postponing local elections until martial law ends, reinforcing the market's expectation that no elections would be held in 2025.
Ukraine’s parliament passes resolution to delay local elections until end of martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
The Verkhovna Rada passed Resolution No. 14301, legally enshrining the continuation of current local councils and postponing elections until martial law ends, reinforcing the market's view that elections in 2025 are unlikely.
Ukrainian Parliament postpones local elections amid war and martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution declaring local elections impossible during the ongoing war and martial law, extending current officials' terms. This official postponement reinforced market doubts about any elections occurring in 2025.
Parliament confirms impossibility of holding local elections during war
June 30, 2026 dips to 22%1%
The Ukrainian parliament declared it impossible to hold local elections during the ongoing war and martial law, stating current officials will continue their duties until conditions for safe voting are restored, further diminishing chances of 2025 elections.
Ukrainian parliament delays local elections until end of martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 22%2%
The Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution to postpone local elections to maintain stability during wartime, reinforcing the constitutional ban on elections during martial law and further reducing election prospects in 2025.
Ukrainian Parliament extends martial law and postpones local elections until war ends
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
The Verkhovna Rada passed Resolution No. 14301, legally postponing local elections and confirming that current local officials will remain in office until safe voting conditions return. This official action further diminished market expectations for elections in 2025.
Ukrainian parliament adopts resolution postponing local elections during martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed Resolution No. 14301, legally postponing local elections until the end of martial law, effectively ruling out elections in 2025 and maintaining current officials in place. This reinforced market expectations that no elections would be held in 2025.
Kiev preparing stealthy campaign for potential presidential election
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%4%
Ukrainian officials reported that Kiev is conducting a 'stealthy albeit rough' campaign to prepare for a potential presidential election, indicating ongoing political activity despite no scheduled elections.
Reports of Kiev secretly preparing for presidential election despite official postponement
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Despite official postponements, reports emerged of political maneuvering and preparations for a potential presidential election, including pressure on anti-corruption bodies. This caused minor market fluctuations but did not reverse the overall trend against 2025 elections.
Kiev secretly preparing for presidential election campaign
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%3%
Ukrainian officials confirmed a 'stealthy albeit rough' campaign to prepare for a potential presidential election, suggesting active planning despite no official schedule. This increased market uncertainty.
Politico Reports Kyiv Conducting Stealth Campaign Preparing for Potential Presidential Election
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%2%
Reports emerged that Kyiv was conducting a stealthy, rough campaign to prepare for a potential presidential election, including political maneuvering and pressure on anti-corruption agencies.
Politico reports on stealthy Ukrainian preparations for potential presidential election
June 30, 2026 rises to 25%2%
Reports emerged that Ukrainian officials and the ruling party are quietly preparing for potential presidential elections, though opposition figures remain skeptical of Zelenskyy's actions.
Politico reports Kyiv is secretly preparing for potential presidential election
June 30, 2026 rises to 25%2%
Reports emerged that Ukraine is conducting a stealthy campaign to prepare for potential presidential elections, though the timing remains highly dependent on the state of the war.
Reports of secret preparations for presidential election despite martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 24%3%
Politico reported that Kiev was conducting a stealthy campaign to prepare for a potential presidential election, including pressure on anti-corruption agencies and criminal cases against generals. This created some uncertainty but did not reverse the market's downward trend on election likelihood in 2025.
Politico reports Kiev secretly preparing for presidential election amid war
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Despite martial law and ongoing conflict, reports emerged of a covert campaign to prepare for a potential presidential election, including pressure on anti-corruption agencies and criminal cases against generals. This suggested elections might be planned but not imminent, maintaining market uncertainty.
Kiev prepares for presidential election amid political campaign signs
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
Signs of a potential presidential campaign were reported, including legal actions against generals and pressure on anti-corruption agencies, suggesting election preparations were underway.
Ukraine ex-army chief reveals rift with Zelenskyy over war strategy
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%9%
The former army chief, seen as Zelenskyy's top rival, spoke publicly about a deep rift with the president, raising questions about political stability and potential leadership changes that could delay elections.
Ukraine’s political uncertainty deepens amid corruption scandal and war pressures
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%3%
President Zelenskyy faced growing pressure from a $100 million corruption scandal implicating top officials, weakening political stability and diminishing prospects for holding elections in 2025. This further lowered market expectations for elections within the year.
Russia targeting Moldovan elections with disinformation campaign
UK Defence Intelligence reported Russia was conducting an extensive interference campaign targeting Moldova's September 28 parliamentary elections, highlighting broader election interference concerns.
Kiev uses election narrative as diplomatic strategy amid war
Statements from Ukrainian officials framed election delays as a tactic to expose Russia as the main opponent of democratic processes, signaling that elections would be delayed until conditions improve. This reinforced market doubts about elections happening in 2025.
Zelenskyy confirms elections possible only in case of cease-fire agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 50%1%
Zelenskyy reiterated that presidential elections are only possible if a cease-fire agreement is reached, reinforcing the indefinite postponement of national elections.
Zelenskyy promises parliamentary elections after peace with Russia
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated he would ask parliament to organize presidential elections following a long-term peace agreement with Russia, signaling potential election timing.
Parliament rejects proposals to hold elections during martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Parliament failed to pass any legislation allowing elections under martial law, confirming that no vote will occur in 2025 and driving the “June 30 2026” odds down to a trough of 21 % on 25 Sep 2025.
Zelensky promises to ask parliament to organize elections after peace with Russia
On September 25, Zelensky publicly promised to request the Ukrainian parliament to organize presidential elections only after a long-term peace with Russia is achieved, reinforcing that elections would not be held during ongoing conflict and martial law, which contributed to a sharp market price decline.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to not run again and links elections to war conclusion
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
On September 25, 2025, President Zelenskyy stated he was ready to not run again after the war's conclusion and promised to ask parliament to organize presidential elections only after a long-term peace with Russia is achieved. This statement lowered market confidence in elections occurring within 2025.
Zelenskyy promises presidential elections after peace agreement with Russia
June 30, 2026 dips to 50%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that presidential elections would be held after concluding a long-term peace with Russia, but confirmed elections were postponed indefinitely due to ongoing conflict and martial law.
Zelenskyy indicates elections will follow peace agreement, not soon
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
President Zelenskyy stated he would ask parliament to organize presidential elections only after a long-term peace with Russia is concluded, signaling elections are unlikely within 2025. This dampened market expectations for elections in the near term.
Zelenskyy states readiness to step down and call elections after war ends
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in an interview that he would ask parliament to organize elections once a ceasefire or peace is reached, signaling that elections remain strictly contingent on the end of hostilities.
Zelensky states readiness to not run again and to hold elections only after war ends
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
President Zelensky declared he was "ready" to not run again after the war's conclusion and vowed to ask parliament to organize elections only if a ceasefire is reached, signaling elections would not occur during ongoing conflict. This statement caused a sharp drop in market confidence for 2025 elections.
Ukrainian parliament reaffirms elections cannot be held during martial law
On September 25, 2025, Ukrainian officials, including deputy Bohdan Kitsak, stated that presidential elections were unlikely to be held soon due to martial law. The Verkhovna Rada had passed a resolution on February 26, 2025, reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law, which was still in effect.
Zelenskyy open to elections during ceasefire
Zelenskyy reiterated his support for holding elections if a ceasefire is reached, reinforcing the possibility of a post-war presidential election in 2026.
Zelenskyy States Presidential Elections Will Only Be Held After Long-Term Peace With Russia
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy clarified that he would only ask the Ukrainian parliament to organize presidential elections after concluding a long-term peace with Russia, dampening expectations of near-term wartime elections.
Zelenskyy signals elections after peace agreement
On September 25, 2025, President Zelenskyy stated he would ask parliament to organize presidential elections after concluding a long-term peace with Russia, indicating elections would not occur during ongoing conflict. This tempered expectations for elections within 2025.
Zelenskyy announces readiness not to run for re-election after war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 18%33%
President Zelenskyy stated he was 'ready' to not run again after the war ends, which may have influenced market expectations about presidential election timing.
Zelensky pledges to hold elections after ceasefire and peace agreement
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
President Zelensky stated he would ask parliament to organize elections once a long-term peace with Russia is achieved, signaling elections are contingent on ceasefire and security guarantees. This conditional stance introduced uncertainty about elections occurring within 2025, contributing to market price decline.
Zelenskyy Links Future Presidential Elections to Post-War Peace Settlement
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he would ask the Ukrainian parliament to organize presidential elections only after concluding a long-term peace with Russia, signaling that no elections will occur while the war continues.
President Zelenskyy states readiness to step down after war ends
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly stated he would be ready to not run for re-election after the war with Russia concludes, signaling elections would be postponed until peace is achieved. This statement influenced market expectations about the timing of elections.
Zelenskyy states readiness to not run again after war's conclusion
In an interview, President Zelenskyy expressed willingness to step down after the war, signaling political uncertainty and potential leadership changes post-conflict, which influenced market sentiment about election timing.
President Zelenskyy states readiness to not run again after war's conclusion
Zelenskyy indicated he was ready to not seek re-election after the war ends, signaling political uncertainty about the timing and nature of future elections, which contributed to market doubts about elections in 2025.
Zelensky promises to ask parliament for elections after ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%1%
President Zelensky stated he would ask Ukraine's parliament to organize presidential elections if a ceasefire is reached, signaling potential 2025 elections. This positive signal initially boosted the December 2026 outcome price.
Zelensky vows to step down after war and push for elections if ceasefire occurs
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%3%
In multiple interviews, Zelensky reiterated he would not seek re-election after the war and would ask parliament to organize elections if a ceasefire is reached, emphasizing constitutional and security challenges but maintaining elections are possible during peace.
Zelenskyy States Readiness to Hold Elections After Concluding Peace with Russia
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated he would ask the Ukrainian parliament to organize presidential elections once a long-term peace agreement with Russia is reached, reinforcing that elections remain tied to the end of hostilities.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms ban on elections during martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
A parliamentary vote reaffirmed that elections cannot be held under martial law, confirming that any 2025‑2026 election is impossible unless martial law ends. This negative signal caused the June‑30‑2026 price to tumble from 51 % to 28 % within a day (‑30 pts).
Zelensky states elections possible if ceasefire is reached
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
President Zelensky said in an interview that Ukraine could hold presidential elections if a ceasefire is achieved, signaling willingness to organize elections during a pause in hostilities. This raised market hopes for elections in 2025 contingent on peace progress.
Zelenskyy states elections will be held only after ceasefire and peace with Russia
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
President Zelenskyy declared he would ask parliament to organize elections only after a long-term peace agreement with Russia, indicating elections in 2025 were unlikely. This statement caused a sharp drop in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 election outcome.
Martial law continues to block Ukrainian elections, lowering market confidence
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
As martial law remained in effect, the constitutional ban on elections during this period kept the likelihood of 2025 elections low, causing a sharp drop in market prices for June 30, 2026 outcome from 51% to 28%.
Market prices begin to drop amid doubts on Ukraine holding elections by mid-2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Initial market prices for June 30, 2026, outcome dropped from 51% to 28% within days, reflecting growing skepticism about elections happening soon due to ongoing conflict and logistical challenges.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law, pledges post-war presidential vote
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Ukraine's parliament passed a resolution on February 26, 2025, reaffirming that elections cannot be held during martial law and committing to hold presidential elections only after the war ends. This legal stance underpinned market skepticism about elections occurring in 2025.
Ukrainian parliament reaffirms no elections during martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
On February 26, 2025, the Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law, which was extended due to the ongoing war. This constitutional stance delayed any election plans, impacting market expectations negatively for elections in 2025.
Ukraine’s presidential and parliamentary elections remain postponed under martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%
Martial law in Ukraine, triggered by the ongoing war with Russia, indefinitely postponed national elections originally scheduled for spring 2024. This continued postponement through late 2025 cast doubt on whether elections would be held within the 2025 window, causing market prices to drop sharply.
Ukraine Parliament declares local elections impossible during war and martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
On September 24, 2025, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution stating that local elections cannot be held during the ongoing war and martial law, effectively ruling out elections in October 2025. This official stance caused a sharp drop in market confidence for elections occurring within 2025.
Zelensky signals readiness to hold elections during ceasefire and step down after war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
President Zelensky stated he would ask parliament to organize elections if a ceasefire is reached and expressed readiness to leave office after the war ends. This initially raised market expectations for elections in 2025, causing a price drop as uncertainty about timing remained.
Ukraine’s Parliament declares impossibility of local elections during war and martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
On September 24, 2025, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution stating that local elections cannot be held during the ongoing war and martial law. This official declaration indicated elections scheduled for 2025 would not take place, causing a sharp drop in market confidence for elections occurring that year.
Ukraine's president faces growing pressure amid corruption scandal and peace plan negotiations
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Reports highlighted that martial law in Ukraine continues to indefinitely postpone presidential and parliamentary elections, reinforcing the unlikelihood of a 2025 vote.
Former Ukrainian army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy and political ambitions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former army chief and ambassador to Britain, publicly disclosed tensions with President Zelenskyy and was seen as a potential political rival. This raised speculation about future elections but emphasized that no elections were scheduled or held in 2025, affecting market expectations for a 2025 election.
Verkhovna Rada passes resolution reaffirming no elections during martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
On February 26, 2025, the Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the war concludes. This official stance significantly reduced market confidence in elections occurring by June 30, 2026.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to step down after war ends
President Zelenskyy announced he is 'ready' to leave office once the war ends, signaling a potential leadership transition after the conflict concludes, which influenced market expectations for post-war elections.
Ukraine’s power grid faces unprecedented challenges amid ongoing war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been under relentless attack by Russia, causing widespread blackouts and severe hardship, which undermines the country’s ability to conduct national elections in 2025. This situation likely contributed to the market’s sharp drop in election probability on this date.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law, pledges post-war presidential vote
On February 26, 2025, Ukraine's parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the war ends. This reinforced constitutional bans on elections during wartime, dampening market expectations for 2025 elections.
Zelensky states readiness to hold elections after ceasefire and security guarantees
On September 24, President Zelensky reiterated in an interview that Ukraine is ready to hold elections once a ceasefire is in place and security guarantees are received. This statement acknowledged the constitutional prohibition on elections during martial law, signaling elections would not occur in 2025 while the war continues, impacting market expectations negatively.
Ukrainian Parliament adopts resolution declaring impossibility of local elections during war and martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution stating that local elections cannot be held during the ongoing war and martial law, effectively ruling out elections in October 2025. This official stance caused a sharp drop in market confidence that elections would occur within the specified 2025 window.
Martial law in Ukraine extended through August 2025, suspending national elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
The Verkhovna Rada extended martial law again, legally prohibiting national elections during this period, which diminished the likelihood of elections being held in 2025 or early 2026.
Ukraine’s Parliament declares local elections impossible during martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution confirming that local elections cannot be held in October 2025 due to martial law and the ongoing war with Russia. This official declaration extended current officials' terms and postponed elections until safe conditions return, significantly reducing market confidence in elections occurring by mid-2026.
Ukraine’s ex-army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy amid war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former army chief and political rival to President Zelenskyy, publicly disclosed tensions and a political rift, signaling internal instability during wartime. This raised doubts about the government's ability to hold elections in 2025, impacting market prices for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Ukraine’s Parliament signals no local elections during martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution declaring the impossibility of holding local elections during the ongoing war and martial law, signaling elections would not occur in October 2025. This official stance caused a sharp drop in market confidence about elections happening in 2025.
Ukraine's former army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy amid war and political tensions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ex-army chief and potential political rival to Zelenskyy, publicly disclosed tensions and a political rift, highlighting internal instability. This raised doubts about Ukraine's political cohesion and the likelihood of elections during ongoing conflict, impacting market prices for June 30, 2026.
Parliament reaffirms elections barred during martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Parliament voted to reaffirm that elections cannot be held under martial law, effectively closing the window for a 2025 vote and sending the June‑30 “Yes” price tumbling from 51 % to the low‑20s.
Ukraine faces ongoing war and martial law delaying elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Martial law in Ukraine indefinitely postponed presidential and parliamentary elections originally scheduled for 2024, with the war continuing to disrupt normal political processes. This uncertainty led to a drop in market prices for elections occurring by June 30, 2026.
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