US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 devastated Iran's nuclear facilities, destroying much of its uranium enrichment infrastructure and missile array, per intelligence assessments and IAEA reports, prompting traders to assign a 92.5% implied probability to no nuclear test before 2027. A February 2026 IAEA update confirmed Iran's pre-strike stockpile of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium but no access to sites amid reconstruction efforts, with recent Director General statements noting no indications of operational nuclear installations. Ongoing US diplomatic pressure, including President Trump's April 13 assertion that Iran seeks a deal and Defense Secretary Hegseth's warnings, reinforces deterrence, though regime desperation or covert advances could shift odds via late-breaking intelligence.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$170,772 Wol.
$170,772 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$170,772 Wol.
$170,772 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 devastated Iran's nuclear facilities, destroying much of its uranium enrichment infrastructure and missile array, per intelligence assessments and IAEA reports, prompting traders to assign a 92.5% implied probability to no nuclear test before 2027. A February 2026 IAEA update confirmed Iran's pre-strike stockpile of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium but no access to sites amid reconstruction efforts, with recent Director General statements noting no indications of operational nuclear installations. Ongoing US diplomatic pressure, including President Trump's April 13 assertion that Iran seeks a deal and Defense Secretary Hegseth's warnings, reinforces deterrence, though regime desperation or covert advances could shift odds via late-breaking intelligence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$170,772Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 devastated Iran's nuclear facilities, destroying much of its uranium enrichment infrastructure and missile array, per intelligence assessments and IAEA reports, prompting traders to assign a 92.5% implied probability to no nuclear test before 2027. A February 2026 IAEA update confirmed Iran's pre-strike stockpile of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium but no access to sites amid reconstruction efforts, with recent Director General statements noting no indications of operational nuclear installations. Ongoing US diplomatic pressure, including President Trump's April 13 assertion that Iran seeks a deal and Defense Secretary Hegseth's warnings, reinforces deterrence, though regime desperation or covert advances could shift odds via late-breaking intelligence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$170,772Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 devastated Iran's nuclear facilities, destroying much of its uranium enrichment infrastructure and missile array, per intelligence assessments and IAEA reports, prompting traders to assign a 92.5% implied probability to no nuclear test before 2027. A February 2026 IAEA update confirmed Iran's pre-strike stockpile of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium but no access to sites amid reconstruction efforts, with recent Director General statements noting no indications of operational nuclear installations. Ongoing US diplomatic pressure, including President Trump's April 13 assertion that Iran seeks a deal and Defense Secretary Hegseth's warnings, reinforces deterrence, though regime desperation or covert advances could shift odds via late-breaking intelligence.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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