Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and follow-on operations through early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with most declared centrifuges, leaving the program largely dormant. IAEA reports as of September 2026 confirm lost continuity of knowledge on Iran's stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, now likely buried under rubble, with inspectors denied access to bombed facilities. Ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to a US-Iran memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and downblending material, while public warnings from US officials target any rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and Iran's public stance continues to affirm a non-weapons NPT commitment amid heightened international monitoring.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% szansa
$251,646 Wol.
$251,646 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% szansa
$251,646 Wol.
$251,646 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and follow-on operations through early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with most declared centrifuges, leaving the program largely dormant. IAEA reports as of September 2026 confirm lost continuity of knowledge on Iran's stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, now likely buried under rubble, with inspectors denied access to bombed facilities. Ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to a US-Iran memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and downblending material, while public warnings from US officials target any rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and Iran's public stance continues to affirm a non-weapons NPT commitment amid heightened international monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$251,646Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and follow-on operations through early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with most declared centrifuges, leaving the program largely dormant. IAEA reports as of September 2026 confirm lost continuity of knowledge on Iran's stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, now likely buried under rubble, with inspectors denied access to bombed facilities. Ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to a US-Iran memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and downblending material, while public warnings from US officials target any rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and Iran's public stance continues to affirm a non-weapons NPT commitment amid heightened international monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$251,646Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and follow-on operations through early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with most declared centrifuges, leaving the program largely dormant. IAEA reports as of September 2026 confirm lost continuity of knowledge on Iran's stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, now likely buried under rubble, with inspectors denied access to bombed facilities. Ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to a US-Iran memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and downblending material, while public warnings from US officials target any rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and Iran's public stance continues to affirm a non-weapons NPT commitment amid heightened international monitoring.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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