Traders price a low probability on Russia conducting a verifiable nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of official announcements, site preparations at Novaya Zemlya, or seismic indicators in recent weeks. Russia maintains a de facto moratorium since its last test in 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 amid Ukraine escalation signals. Key recent developments include early April exercises with RS-24 Yars ICBMs capable of nuclear payloads and U.S. warnings of potential Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons, but neither involves detonation. Barriers include international backlash, arms control norms, and no strategic imperative; odds could shift with Ukraine battlefield reversals, doctrine updates, or sanctions defiance before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$1,342,565 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
30 czerwca 2026
2%
30 września 2026
9%
31 grudnia 2026
12%
$1,342,565 Wol.
30 czerwca 2026
$4,433 Wol.
2%
30 września 2026
$1,400 Wol.
9%
31 grudnia 2026
$12,159 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders price a low probability on Russia conducting a verifiable nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of official announcements, site preparations at Novaya Zemlya, or seismic indicators in recent weeks. Russia maintains a de facto moratorium since its last test in 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 amid Ukraine escalation signals. Key recent developments include early April exercises with RS-24 Yars ICBMs capable of nuclear payloads and U.S. warnings of potential Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons, but neither involves detonation. Barriers include international backlash, arms control norms, and no strategic imperative; odds could shift with Ukraine battlefield reversals, doctrine updates, or sanctions defiance before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,342,565Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders price a low probability on Russia conducting a verifiable nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of official announcements, site preparations at Novaya Zemlya, or seismic indicators in recent weeks. Russia maintains a de facto moratorium since its last test in 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 amid Ukraine escalation signals. Key recent developments include early April exercises with RS-24 Yars ICBMs capable of nuclear payloads and U.S. warnings of potential Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons, but neither involves detonation. Barriers include international backlash, arms control norms, and no strategic imperative; odds could shift with Ukraine battlefield reversals, doctrine updates, or sanctions defiance before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$1,342,565Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price a low probability on Russia conducting a verifiable nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of official announcements, site preparations at Novaya Zemlya, or seismic indicators in recent weeks. Russia maintains a de facto moratorium since its last test in 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 amid Ukraine escalation signals. Key recent developments include early April exercises with RS-24 Yars ICBMs capable of nuclear payloads and U.S. warnings of potential Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons, but neither involves detonation. Barriers include international backlash, arms control norms, and no strategic imperative; odds could shift with Ukraine battlefield reversals, doctrine updates, or sanctions defiance before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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