Persistent territorial disputes, with Russia demanding control over all of the Donbas and Ukraine rejecting concessions, continue to block any finalized peace agreement that could enable a referendum. Ukrainian martial law, extended into late 2026, constitutionally bars national votes or referendums until lifted, while U.S.-mediated trilateral talks earlier in 2026 yielded only limited restraints on attacks and prisoner exchanges without a ceasefire framework. Recent statements from Kyiv and Moscow through August indicate stalled momentum, with no parliamentary path or security guarantees in place to trigger the required legislative steps before year-end 2026. These barriers sustain trader consensus around the low probability of passage prior to 2027, though a verifiable ceasefire combined with rapid Ukrainian parliamentary action could still shift timelines.