Ongoing combat, stalled negotiations over territorial concessions, and the absence of any sustained ceasefire continue to suppress prospects for a Ukrainian referendum on a peace deal with Russia before 2027. Russian demands for full control of annexed regions remain incompatible with Kyiv's positions, as President Zelenskyy has repeatedly indicated that unfavorable terms would likely fail public approval and require at least 60 days of security to organize. Recent August 2026 Russian strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian long-range responses underscore active escalation rather than de-escalation, while mediation windows cited by Zelenskyy extend only into 2027 amid broader diplomatic pauses. Traders' near-certain assessment reflects these structural barriers, though a sudden battlefield reversal or verified breakthrough enabling rapid ceasefire could still shift timelines within the window.