The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its arsenal. In late October 2025, President Trump directed testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by those states, including a claimed Chinese test in 2020. Administration officials subsequently clarified that activities would focus on non-explosive systems tests rather than full-yield detonations. The New START Treaty expired in February 2026 and the NPT Review Conference produced no consensus, yet no explosive test has occurred as of September 2026. Congressional measures seek to codify the moratorium, while the site infrastructure remains prepared for contingency use. Scheduled events such as budget decisions and lab certifications could influence any shift in policy within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAmerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
Amerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
$794,203 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
30 września 2026
1%
31 grudnia 2026
5%
$794,203 Wol.
30 września 2026
$57,435 Wol.
1%
31 grudnia 2026
$75,957 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its arsenal. In late October 2025, President Trump directed testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by those states, including a claimed Chinese test in 2020. Administration officials subsequently clarified that activities would focus on non-explosive systems tests rather than full-yield detonations. The New START Treaty expired in February 2026 and the NPT Review Conference produced no consensus, yet no explosive test has occurred as of September 2026. Congressional measures seek to codify the moratorium, while the site infrastructure remains prepared for contingency use. Scheduled events such as budget decisions and lab certifications could influence any shift in policy within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$794,203Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its arsenal. In late October 2025, President Trump directed testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by those states, including a claimed Chinese test in 2020. Administration officials subsequently clarified that activities would focus on non-explosive systems tests rather than full-yield detonations. The New START Treaty expired in February 2026 and the NPT Review Conference produced no consensus, yet no explosive test has occurred as of September 2026. Congressional measures seek to codify the moratorium, while the site infrastructure remains prepared for contingency use. Scheduled events such as budget decisions and lab certifications could influence any shift in policy within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$794,203Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its arsenal. In late October 2025, President Trump directed testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by those states, including a claimed Chinese test in 2020. Administration officials subsequently clarified that activities would focus on non-explosive systems tests rather than full-yield detonations. The New START Treaty expired in February 2026 and the NPT Review Conference produced no consensus, yet no explosive test has occurred as of September 2026. Congressional measures seek to codify the moratorium, while the site infrastructure remains prepared for contingency use. Scheduled events such as budget decisions and lab certifications could influence any shift in policy within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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