President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China generated immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary ruled out explosive detonations in favor of subcritical experiments and simulations. The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive tests since 1992 and maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for any underground detonation at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed the last bilateral constraint, while congressional proposals seek to require legislative approval before any resumption. These technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers underpin traders’ low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026, with outcomes remaining highly sensitive to future executive announcements or verified foreign test activity.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAmerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
Amerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
$667,628 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
30 czerwca 2026
2%
30 września 2026
5%
31 grudnia 2026
9%
$667,628 Wol.
30 czerwca 2026
$40,220 Wol.
2%
30 września 2026
$6,673 Wol.
5%
31 grudnia 2026
$10,517 Wol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China generated immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary ruled out explosive detonations in favor of subcritical experiments and simulations. The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive tests since 1992 and maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for any underground detonation at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed the last bilateral constraint, while congressional proposals seek to require legislative approval before any resumption. These technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers underpin traders’ low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026, with outcomes remaining highly sensitive to future executive announcements or verified foreign test activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$667,628Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China generated immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary ruled out explosive detonations in favor of subcritical experiments and simulations. The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive tests since 1992 and maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for any underground detonation at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed the last bilateral constraint, while congressional proposals seek to require legislative approval before any resumption. These technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers underpin traders’ low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026, with outcomes remaining highly sensitive to future executive announcements or verified foreign test activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$667,628Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China generated immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary ruled out explosive detonations in favor of subcritical experiments and simulations. The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive tests since 1992 and maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for any underground detonation at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed the last bilateral constraint, while congressional proposals seek to require legislative approval before any resumption. These technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers underpin traders’ low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026, with outcomes remaining highly sensitive to future executive announcements or verified foreign test activity.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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