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Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

icon for Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

39% szansa
Polymarket

$175,050 Wol.

39% szansa
Polymarket

$175,050 Wol.

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 departure, driven by quota constraints versus its expanded production capacity and strategic divergence amid Iran-related supply disruptions, has already reduced OPEC to 11 members and prompted internal adjustments among remaining producers. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing an exit over quota levels and Venezuela considering departure have not translated into formal action, as officials emphasize continued participation and phased production increases to support market stability. Core members continue coordinating voluntary cuts and capacity reviews into late 2026, with no confirmed additional exits despite ongoing tensions. Trader consensus on low odds for further departures this year reflects these institutional commitments and the absence of binding announcements within the resolution window.

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$175,050
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 departure, driven by quota constraints versus its expanded production capacity and strategic divergence amid Iran-related supply disruptions, has already reduced OPEC to 11 members and prompted internal adjustments among remaining producers. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing an exit over quota levels and Venezuela considering departure have not translated into formal action, as officials emphasize continued participation and phased production increases to support market stability. Core members continue coordinating voluntary cuts and capacity reviews into late 2026, with no confirmed additional exits despite ongoing tensions. Trader consensus on low odds for further departures this year reflects these institutional commitments and the absence of binding announcements within the resolution window.

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$175,050
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...

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Często zadawane pytania

"Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały "Tak" lub "Nie" w zależności od tego, czy wierzą, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Obecne zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwo to 39% na "Yes". Na przykład, jeśli "Tak" kosztuje 39¢, rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 39% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje i wydarzenia. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?" wygenerował $175K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Apr 28, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?", wybierz, czy uważasz, że odpowiedź to "Tak" czy "Nie". Każda strona ma bieżącą cenę odzwierciedlającą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" i wynik okaże się "Tak", każdy udział wypłaci $1. Jeśli okaże się "Nie", Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem, jeśli chcesz zrealizować zysk lub ograniczyć stratę.

Obecne prawdopodobieństwo dla "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?" to 39% na "Yes". Oznacza to, że społeczność Polymarket uważa, że istnieje 39% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym na podstawie rzeczywistych transakcji, dostarczając ciągle aktualizowany sygnał tego, czego rynek oczekuje.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.