The UAE's May 2026 departure, driven by quota constraints versus its expanded production capacity and strategic divergence amid Iran-related supply disruptions, has already reduced OPEC to 11 members and prompted internal adjustments among remaining producers. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing an exit over quota levels and Venezuela considering departure have not translated into formal action, as officials emphasize continued participation and phased production increases to support market stability. Core members continue coordinating voluntary cuts and capacity reviews into late 2026, with no confirmed additional exits despite ongoing tensions. Trader consensus on low odds for further departures this year reflects these institutional commitments and the absence of binding announcements within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
39% szansa
$175,050 Wol.
$175,050 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
39% szansa
$175,050 Wol.
$175,050 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 departure, driven by quota constraints versus its expanded production capacity and strategic divergence amid Iran-related supply disruptions, has already reduced OPEC to 11 members and prompted internal adjustments among remaining producers. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing an exit over quota levels and Venezuela considering departure have not translated into formal action, as officials emphasize continued participation and phased production increases to support market stability. Core members continue coordinating voluntary cuts and capacity reviews into late 2026, with no confirmed additional exits despite ongoing tensions. Trader consensus on low odds for further departures this year reflects these institutional commitments and the absence of binding announcements within the resolution window.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Wolumen
$175,050Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 departure, driven by quota constraints versus its expanded production capacity and strategic divergence amid Iran-related supply disruptions, has already reduced OPEC to 11 members and prompted internal adjustments among remaining producers. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing an exit over quota levels and Venezuela considering departure have not translated into formal action, as officials emphasize continued participation and phased production increases to support market stability. Core members continue coordinating voluntary cuts and capacity reviews into late 2026, with no confirmed additional exits despite ongoing tensions. Trader consensus on low odds for further departures this year reflects these institutional commitments and the absence of binding announcements within the resolution window.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$175,050Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The UAE's May 2026 departure, driven by quota constraints versus its expanded production capacity and strategic divergence amid Iran-related supply disruptions, has already reduced OPEC to 11 members and prompted internal adjustments among remaining producers. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing an exit over quota levels and Venezuela considering departure have not translated into formal action, as officials emphasize continued participation and phased production increases to support market stability. Core members continue coordinating voluntary cuts and capacity reviews into late 2026, with no confirmed additional exits despite ongoing tensions. Trader consensus on low odds for further departures this year reflects these institutional commitments and the absence of binding announcements within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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