**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.7% reflects the absence of any active indigenous nuclear weapons programs among US allies, combined with the extremely short remaining timeframe before 2027.** Allies such as South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia continue to reaffirm NPT commitments and reliance on US extended deterrence, even amid public debates over regional threats from North Korea, China, and Iran. Recent US-backed civil nuclear cooperation agreements focus on safeguarded enrichment and reprocessing for energy or naval propulsion, not weapons development. Technical and political barriers—including IAEA monitoring, alliance structures, and domestic consensus—prevent breakout on this timeline. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden, verified acquisition by a qualifying ally (NATO member or major non-NATO ally) before December 31, 2026, potentially triggered by an unforeseen security crisis, though current evidence shows no such pathway is underway.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano4% szansa
$212,461 Wol.
$212,461 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% szansa
$212,461 Wol.
$212,461 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.7% reflects the absence of any active indigenous nuclear weapons programs among US allies, combined with the extremely short remaining timeframe before 2027.**
Allies such as South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia continue to reaffirm NPT commitments and reliance on US extended deterrence, even amid public debates over regional threats from North Korea, China, and Iran. Recent US-backed civil nuclear cooperation agreements focus on safeguarded enrichment and reprocessing for energy or naval propulsion, not weapons development. Technical and political barriers—including IAEA monitoring, alliance structures, and domestic consensus—prevent breakout on this timeline.
Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden, verified acquisition by a qualifying ally (NATO member or major non-NATO ally) before December 31, 2026, potentially triggered by an unforeseen security crisis, though current evidence shows no such pathway is underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$212,461Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.7% reflects the absence of any active indigenous nuclear weapons programs among US allies, combined with the extremely short remaining timeframe before 2027.**
Allies such as South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia continue to reaffirm NPT commitments and reliance on US extended deterrence, even amid public debates over regional threats from North Korea, China, and Iran. Recent US-backed civil nuclear cooperation agreements focus on safeguarded enrichment and reprocessing for energy or naval propulsion, not weapons development. Technical and political barriers—including IAEA monitoring, alliance structures, and domestic consensus—prevent breakout on this timeline.
Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden, verified acquisition by a qualifying ally (NATO member or major non-NATO ally) before December 31, 2026, potentially triggered by an unforeseen security crisis, though current evidence shows no such pathway is underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$212,461Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.7% reflects the absence of any active indigenous nuclear weapons programs among US allies, combined with the extremely short remaining timeframe before 2027.** Allies such as South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia continue to reaffirm NPT commitments and reliance on US extended deterrence, even amid public debates over regional threats from North Korea, China, and Iran. Recent US-backed civil nuclear cooperation agreements focus on safeguarded enrichment and reprocessing for energy or naval propulsion, not weapons development. Technical and political barriers—including IAEA monitoring, alliance structures, and domestic consensus—prevent breakout on this timeline. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden, verified acquisition by a qualifying ally (NATO member or major non-NATO ally) before December 31, 2026, potentially triggered by an unforeseen security crisis, though current evidence shows no such pathway is underway.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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