Traders assign a 90.3% implied probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027 because developing an operational arsenal requires years of fissile material production, warhead design, delivery systems, and testing—steps constrained by NPT obligations, US extended deterrence commitments, and alliance pressures. South Korea and Japan maintain advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure and have discussed latent options amid regional threats, yet both reaffirm non-proliferation pledges and coordinate closely with Washington on enrichment limits and submarine programs. Saudi Arabia continues to tie any potential pursuit to Iranian developments without independent weaponization steps. No ally has announced withdrawal from the NPT or initiated a dedicated military program within the resolution window, preserving the strong consensus reflected in current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$51,592 Wol.
$51,592 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$51,592 Wol.
$51,592 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Traders assign a 90.3% implied probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027 because developing an operational arsenal requires years of fissile material production, warhead design, delivery systems, and testing—steps constrained by NPT obligations, US extended deterrence commitments, and alliance pressures. South Korea and Japan maintain advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure and have discussed latent options amid regional threats, yet both reaffirm non-proliferation pledges and coordinate closely with Washington on enrichment limits and submarine programs. Saudi Arabia continues to tie any potential pursuit to Iranian developments without independent weaponization steps. No ally has announced withdrawal from the NPT or initiated a dedicated military program within the resolution window, preserving the strong consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$51,592Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Traders assign a 90.3% implied probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027 because developing an operational arsenal requires years of fissile material production, warhead design, delivery systems, and testing—steps constrained by NPT obligations, US extended deterrence commitments, and alliance pressures. South Korea and Japan maintain advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure and have discussed latent options amid regional threats, yet both reaffirm non-proliferation pledges and coordinate closely with Washington on enrichment limits and submarine programs. Saudi Arabia continues to tie any potential pursuit to Iranian developments without independent weaponization steps. No ally has announced withdrawal from the NPT or initiated a dedicated military program within the resolution window, preserving the strong consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$51,592Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 90.3% implied probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027 because developing an operational arsenal requires years of fissile material production, warhead design, delivery systems, and testing—steps constrained by NPT obligations, US extended deterrence commitments, and alliance pressures. South Korea and Japan maintain advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure and have discussed latent options amid regional threats, yet both reaffirm non-proliferation pledges and coordinate closely with Washington on enrichment limits and submarine programs. Saudi Arabia continues to tie any potential pursuit to Iranian developments without independent weaponization steps. No ally has announced withdrawal from the NPT or initiated a dedicated military program within the resolution window, preserving the strong consensus reflected in current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania