Trader consensus heavily favors no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting entrenched non-proliferation barriers under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, US extended deterrence commitments, and the multi-year timeline for fissile material production, testing, and delivery systems. Recent debates intensified in Poland, where Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated in early March 2026 that Warsaw seeks eventual nuclear autonomy amid Russia threats, while pursuing talks with France on deterrence sharing—yet US opposition and political hurdles preclude near-term pursuit. Similar discussions emerged in South Korea and Japan by mid-April 2026 over eroding confidence in US security guarantees, but no official programs have launched, with bilateral pacts restricting enrichment and reprocessing. Post-New START expiration in February, proliferation fears persist without breakthroughs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus heavily favors no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting entrenched non-proliferation barriers under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, US extended deterrence commitments, and the multi-year timeline for fissile material production, testing, and delivery systems. Recent debates intensified in Poland, where Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated in early March 2026 that Warsaw seeks eventual nuclear autonomy amid Russia threats, while pursuing talks with France on deterrence sharing—yet US opposition and political hurdles preclude near-term pursuit. Similar discussions emerged in South Korea and Japan by mid-April 2026 over eroding confidence in US security guarantees, but no official programs have launched, with bilateral pacts restricting enrichment and reprocessing. Post-New START expiration in February, proliferation fears persist without breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$6,178Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus heavily favors no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting entrenched non-proliferation barriers under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, US extended deterrence commitments, and the multi-year timeline for fissile material production, testing, and delivery systems. Recent debates intensified in Poland, where Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated in early March 2026 that Warsaw seeks eventual nuclear autonomy amid Russia threats, while pursuing talks with France on deterrence sharing—yet US opposition and political hurdles preclude near-term pursuit. Similar discussions emerged in South Korea and Japan by mid-April 2026 over eroding confidence in US security guarantees, but no official programs have launched, with bilateral pacts restricting enrichment and reprocessing. Post-New START expiration in February, proliferation fears persist without breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$6,178Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting entrenched non-proliferation barriers under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, US extended deterrence commitments, and the multi-year timeline for fissile material production, testing, and delivery systems. Recent debates intensified in Poland, where Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated in early March 2026 that Warsaw seeks eventual nuclear autonomy amid Russia threats, while pursuing talks with France on deterrence sharing—yet US opposition and political hurdles preclude near-term pursuit. Similar discussions emerged in South Korea and Japan by mid-April 2026 over eroding confidence in US security guarantees, but no official programs have launched, with bilateral pacts restricting enrichment and reprocessing. Post-New START expiration in February, proliferation fears persist without breakthroughs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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