Saudi Arabia has maintained that normalization with Israel requires an irreversible pathway to a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, a condition repeatedly described as non-negotiable by senior officials including Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan. This stance has hardened since 2023 amid the Gaza conflict and subsequent Israeli operations, with Riyadh viewing Israel as a destabilizing regional actor comparable to Iran and shifting toward alternative frameworks such as the R-4 quartet. Domestic surveys show near-universal Saudi public opposition (around 99%), limiting leadership flexibility, while constitutional authority for treaties rests with the aging King Salman. Recent statements through mid-2026 confirm normalization is not under active consideration, and U.S. efforts to link it to nuclear cooperation have not altered Riyadh’s position. These factors underpin trader consensus on low probability of agreement by the end of 2026.