**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 30°C or higher in Qingdao on June 25, reflecting 78% implied probability amid typical late-June warming.** Current ensemble forecasts from global models show expected highs near 26–29°C under mostly cloudy, stable conditions with moderate humidity and light southerly flow, consistent with climatological averages of 24–27°C for the period. However, day-to-day variability, potential model underestimation of daytime heating, and the narrow two-day forecast window allow for upside surprises if subsidence strengthens or insolation increases. Historical extremes occasionally exceed 30°C even without major heatwaves, supporting the market’s pricing of elevated odds while lower-temperature outcomes remain low-probability tails. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date represent the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Qingdao on June 25?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on June 25?
30°C or higher 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$40,861 Wol.
$40,861 Wol.
Jun 25, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
Yes
30°C or higher 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$40,861 Wol.
$40,861 Wol.
Jun 25, 2026
20°C or below
$417 Wol.
No
21°C
$493 Wol.
No
22°C
$453 Wol.
No
23°C
$493 Wol.
No
24°C
$504 Wol.
No
25°C
$1,168 Wol.
No
26°C
$1,315 Wol.
No
27°C
$1,043 Wol.
No
28°C
$2,564 Wol.
No
29°C
$2,323 Wol.
No
30°C or higher
$30,089 Wol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 30°C or higher in Qingdao on June 25, reflecting 78% implied probability amid typical late-June warming.** Current ensemble forecasts from global models show expected highs near 26–29°C under mostly cloudy, stable conditions with moderate humidity and light southerly flow, consistent with climatological averages of 24–27°C for the period. However, day-to-day variability, potential model underestimation of daytime heating, and the narrow two-day forecast window allow for upside surprises if subsidence strengthens or insolation increases. Historical extremes occasionally exceed 30°C even without major heatwaves, supporting the market’s pricing of elevated odds while lower-temperature outcomes remain low-probability tails. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date represent the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$40,861Data zakończenia
Jun 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 30°C or higher in Qingdao on June 25, reflecting 78% implied probability amid typical late-June warming.** Current ensemble forecasts from global models show expected highs near 26–29°C under mostly cloudy, stable conditions with moderate humidity and light southerly flow, consistent with climatological averages of 24–27°C for the period. However, day-to-day variability, potential model underestimation of daytime heating, and the narrow two-day forecast window allow for upside surprises if subsidence strengthens or insolation increases. Historical extremes occasionally exceed 30°C even without major heatwaves, supporting the market’s pricing of elevated odds while lower-temperature outcomes remain low-probability tails. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date represent the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$40,861Data zakończenia
Jun 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 30°C or higher in Qingdao on June 25, reflecting 78% implied probability amid typical late-June warming.** Current ensemble forecasts from global models show expected highs near 26–29°C under mostly cloudy, stable conditions with moderate humidity and light southerly flow, consistent with climatological averages of 24–27°C for the period. However, day-to-day variability, potential model underestimation of daytime heating, and the narrow two-day forecast window allow for upside surprises if subsidence strengthens or insolation increases. Historical extremes occasionally exceed 30°C even without major heatwaves, supporting the market’s pricing of elevated odds while lower-temperature outcomes remain low-probability tails. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date represent the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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