Recent KMA and global ensemble forecasts indicate Seoul's July 16 maximum will hinge on the timing and extent of monsoon moisture and cloud cover, with consensus highs clustered near 29–30 °C. Diurnal heating under a strengthening subtropical ridge supports upper-20s readings, yet scattered showers or thicker stratiform clouds could cap the peak 1–2 °C lower by limiting insolation. Model spread arises mainly from the precise arrival of a weak frontal boundary and boundary-layer humidity, both of which remain sensitive to small shifts in steering flow. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 29 °C and 30 °C while discounting extremes above 31 °C or below 27 °C. Updated model runs and KMA short-range guidance expected over the next 48 hours will narrow this range ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Seoul on July 16?
Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$129,865 Wol.
$129,865 Wol.
Jul 16, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$129,865 Wol.
$129,865 Wol.
Jul 16, 2026
21°C or below
$5,491 Wol.
No
22°C
$541 Wol.
No
23°C
$496 Wol.
No
24°C
$338 Wol.
No
25°C
$2,947 Wol.
No
26°C
$9,196 Wol.
No
27°C
$9,419 Wol.
No
28°C
$50,657 Wol.
Yes
29°C
$17,900 Wol.
No
30°C
$15,670 Wol.
No
31°C or higher
$17,209 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent KMA and global ensemble forecasts indicate Seoul's July 16 maximum will hinge on the timing and extent of monsoon moisture and cloud cover, with consensus highs clustered near 29–30 °C. Diurnal heating under a strengthening subtropical ridge supports upper-20s readings, yet scattered showers or thicker stratiform clouds could cap the peak 1–2 °C lower by limiting insolation. Model spread arises mainly from the precise arrival of a weak frontal boundary and boundary-layer humidity, both of which remain sensitive to small shifts in steering flow. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 29 °C and 30 °C while discounting extremes above 31 °C or below 27 °C. Updated model runs and KMA short-range guidance expected over the next 48 hours will narrow this range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$129,865Data zakończenia
Jul 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent KMA and global ensemble forecasts indicate Seoul's July 16 maximum will hinge on the timing and extent of monsoon moisture and cloud cover, with consensus highs clustered near 29–30 °C. Diurnal heating under a strengthening subtropical ridge supports upper-20s readings, yet scattered showers or thicker stratiform clouds could cap the peak 1–2 °C lower by limiting insolation. Model spread arises mainly from the precise arrival of a weak frontal boundary and boundary-layer humidity, both of which remain sensitive to small shifts in steering flow. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 29 °C and 30 °C while discounting extremes above 31 °C or below 27 °C. Updated model runs and KMA short-range guidance expected over the next 48 hours will narrow this range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$129,865Data zakończenia
Jul 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Recent KMA and global ensemble forecasts indicate Seoul's July 16 maximum will hinge on the timing and extent of monsoon moisture and cloud cover, with consensus highs clustered near 29–30 °C. Diurnal heating under a strengthening subtropical ridge supports upper-20s readings, yet scattered showers or thicker stratiform clouds could cap the peak 1–2 °C lower by limiting insolation. Model spread arises mainly from the precise arrival of a weak frontal boundary and boundary-layer humidity, both of which remain sensitive to small shifts in steering flow. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 29 °C and 30 °C while discounting extremes above 31 °C or below 27 °C. Updated model runs and KMA short-range guidance expected over the next 48 hours will narrow this range ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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