**Yes at 55.5%** reflects trader consensus that the two completed celebrity weddings have cleared the biggest hurdles, leaving Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner’s engagement as the decisive remaining condition before year-end. Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce married in a high-profile July 3 ceremony at Madison Square Garden, while Tom Holland and Zendaya’s union was confirmed by Holland in June following earlier speculation. These outcomes have anchored Yes shares near even money. The Chalamet-Jenner pairing, dating since 2023 and still described by sources as stable but unhurried, shows no confirmed engagement or accelerated timeline despite ongoing public appearances. With roughly three and a half months left, momentum hinges on any late-year signals from the couple, guild or awards-season optics, or private developments that could shift the final catalyst.