Microsoft's June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model (35B active parameters, ~1T total MoE with 256K context), established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. Trained from scratch on clean, licensed enterprise data without distillation, it matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and reaches competitive SWE-Bench Pro and AIME scores, positioning Microsoft as a cost-efficient alternative in the medium-weight class. The model's August 12 public preview in Microsoft Foundry reinforced momentum toward rapid iteration via the company's "hill-climbing" training pipeline. With no successor yet announced as of early September, sentiment reflects uncertainty around timelines for the next reasoning model, enterprise integrations, or benchmark updates that could signal a follow-on release before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNew MAI thinking model released by...?
New MAI thinking model released by...?
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
26%
December 31
55%
$489 Wol.
September 30
$188 Wol.
26%
December 31
$301 Wol.
55%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model (35B active parameters, ~1T total MoE with 256K context), established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. Trained from scratch on clean, licensed enterprise data without distillation, it matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and reaches competitive SWE-Bench Pro and AIME scores, positioning Microsoft as a cost-efficient alternative in the medium-weight class. The model's August 12 public preview in Microsoft Foundry reinforced momentum toward rapid iteration via the company's "hill-climbing" training pipeline. With no successor yet announced as of early September, sentiment reflects uncertainty around timelines for the next reasoning model, enterprise integrations, or benchmark updates that could signal a follow-on release before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Wolumen
$489Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model (35B active parameters, ~1T total MoE with 256K context), established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. Trained from scratch on clean, licensed enterprise data without distillation, it matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and reaches competitive SWE-Bench Pro and AIME scores, positioning Microsoft as a cost-efficient alternative in the medium-weight class. The model's August 12 public preview in Microsoft Foundry reinforced momentum toward rapid iteration via the company's "hill-climbing" training pipeline. With no successor yet announced as of early September, sentiment reflects uncertainty around timelines for the next reasoning model, enterprise integrations, or benchmark updates that could signal a follow-on release before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$489Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Microsoft's June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model (35B active parameters, ~1T total MoE with 256K context), established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. Trained from scratch on clean, licensed enterprise data without distillation, it matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and reaches competitive SWE-Bench Pro and AIME scores, positioning Microsoft as a cost-efficient alternative in the medium-weight class. The model's August 12 public preview in Microsoft Foundry reinforced momentum toward rapid iteration via the company's "hill-climbing" training pipeline. With no successor yet announced as of early September, sentiment reflects uncertainty around timelines for the next reasoning model, enterprise integrations, or benchmark updates that could signal a follow-on release before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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